My mind is officially boggled

[Chuck Taylor]

No, he's proven to be close enough to Rudy in making free throws that it literally doesn't matter who takes one free throw, between them. You're obsessing over a decision that didn't matter, because the percentage difference is so small as to be essentially irrelevant in one shot.

You're right about one thing...I am obsessing about it now! I don't actually think it's a huge deal....my original post was just to try & figure out how they are selected. But I'm surprised at how much opposition I've gotten.

I think the percentage difference is pretty big though. Brace yourselves, now I'm really about to obsess. It's a 4% difference. Miller makes 82%, Rudy 86%. Sure, this is a non issue when Miller makes it, but not when he misses. Figure they take 100 shots, both making their first 82. At this point, Miller should miss his final 18. But Rudy still has 4 made free throws in him. 4/18 = 22%. So for every Miller miss, we have a 22% chance of Rudy making it. If it were up to me, I'd take a 22% chance of having one extra point last night.

 

[Minstrel]

I think the percentage difference is pretty big though. Brace yourselves, now I'm really about to obsess. It's a 4% difference. Miller makes 82%, Rudy 86%. Sure, this is a non issue when Miller makes it, but not when he misses. Figure they take 100 shots, both making their first 82. At this point, Miller should miss his final 18. But Rudy still has 4 made free throws in him. 4/18 = 22%. So for every Miller miss, we have a 22% chance of Rudy making it. If it were up to me, I'd take a 22% chance of having one extra point last night.

That isn't how percentages work. A 4% difference is a 4% difference, it doesn't become a 22% difference by looking only at the misses. The huge amount of successes in common by both players also matter.

You had a 4% chance at an extra 1 point last night, or an expected value of .04 points. Technically, a difference, but such a tiny one that it really didn't matter.

 

[Minstrel]

I disagree. He shoots well enough better that he hits one out of 20 more than Miller, which, when your in a tight game, you put on the line. You play the numbers. The Celtics have guys that shoot in the 80's too. Do you ever see any of them put on the line when Ray Allen is in the game? He shoots 90+ percent but is only about .050 better than them. But according to you, that is splitting hairs.

Assuming Fernandez was feeling 100%, I'd have put him on the line, not Miller. I'm simply saying it didn't matter much. And yes...for a single free throw, putting Ray Allen on the line or someone who shoots 4% less well wouldn't matter very much.

If it were a competition to shoot 100 or 1000 free throws, then it would matter quite a bit.

 

[hasoos]

Assuming Fernandez was feeling 100%, I'd have put him on the line, not Miller. I'm simply saying it didn't matter much. And yes...for a single free throw, putting Ray Allen on the line or someone who shoots 4% less well wouldn't matter very much.

If it were a competition to shoot 100 or 1000 free throws, then it would matter quite a bit.

What about in a game where you lose by one point? Was it worth it then? If you were in Vegas and gambling, would you try to win by going with the second best card hand available to you, rather than go for the hand that gives you the best chance to win?

See the thing you don't seem to get, is the fact that little mistakes like this, add up. Little mistakes that the coaching staff is paid a lot of money not to make.

 

[Minstrel]

What about in a game where you lose by one point? Was it worth it then?

Worth what? As I said, I'd put Fernandez on the line. Even in a 1 point game, an expected 0.04 points is not that significant. And if Miller is more poised when shooting such free throws (no idea, personally, if he is or not) then that could very easily wash out that tiny expected difference from percentage.

In other words, I think mistakes are made every game, but this one (if it was one) didn't have any real effect.

 

[Blazed Mania 52]

It's a veteran thing. He is the vet, and the leader on the court right now, so he took it. Nobody is gonna argue with him taking it honestly. Wish he would have made it though.

Thats why Bayless took the last shot of the game.

 

[hasoos]

Worth what? As I said, I'd put Fernandez on the line. Even in a 1 point game, an expected 0.04 points is not that significant. And if Miller is more poised when shooting such free throws (no idea, personally, if he is or not) then that could very easily wash out that tiny expected difference from percentage.

In other words, I think mistakes are made every game, but this one (if it was one) didn't have any real effect.

Ok so you are going to sit there and tell me that it had no effect when we lost by one point. What the hell is your definition of an effect? The facts are, that Nate and his coaching staff make mistakes like this all the time. I have seen them repeatedly send a poorer shooter to the line for technical free throws. Just like I have seen them repeat the mistake of having a short inbounder throw in the inbounds pass on a critical play near the end of the game. The jobs of the coaching staff, is to put the team in the best position to win, and even if a guy is a half a percent higher in shooting percentage, he is still a better shot than the guy behind him, and that gives you a higher percentage chance to win, even if miniscule. The job is to get to put the team in position for the best chance to win. If you are making decisions which are not, and you lose the game, then you aren't doing your job.

 

[rocketeer]

The jobs of the coaching staff, is to put the team in the best position to win, and even if a guy is a half a percent higher in shooting percentage, he is still a better shot than the guy behind him, and that gives you a higher percentage chance to win, even if miniscule. The job is to get to put the team in position for the best chance to win. If you are making decisions which are not, and you lose the game, then you aren't doing your job.

right, the job is to put the team in the best position to win. having shot the best free throw percentage thus far over the season does not necessarily mean you are the player most likely to make a particularly important free throw. can you see how it's possible that those two things could be different?

 

[Minstrel]

Ok so you are going to sit there and tell me that it had no effect when we lost by one point. What the hell is your definition of an effect?

0.04 points is my definition of essentially no effect. Even in a 1 point game.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

0.04 points is my definition of essentially no effect. Even in a 1 point game.

Exactly. 4 times out of 100, Rudy would hit a FT that Andre doesn't.