NBA All NBA First Team

[KingSpeed]

Okay. Well.

Kyrie is shooting 49% from the field, to Dame's 44.6%

Kyrie is shooting 40.8% from three, to Dame's 38.2%

Kyrie has a 61 TS% to Dame's 60%

Dame is averaging 4 more minutes per game, and if you equal them up, they're very close in averages, but Kyrie is a more efficient scorer.

Yes but Dame averages more points, rebounds, blocks, and assists.

 

[Natebishop3]

Yes but Dame averages more points, rebounds, blocks, and assists.

4.

More.

Minutes.

Per.

Game.

 

[KingSpeed]

4.

More.

Minutes.

Per.

Game.

Playing more time is a positive. He's putting in more work.

 

[Natebishop3]

Playing more time is a positive. He's putting in more work.

More minutes affects averages. That's why we look at things like PER 36.

Dame averages around 36 minutes per game. If you take Irving's PER 36, he's very close or better than Dame in a lot of categories. That's for the season anyway. Dame's averages since January have been something entirely different.

 

[KingSpeed]

More minutes affects averages. That's why we look at things like PER 36.

Dame averages around 36 minutes per game. If you take Irving's PER 36, he's very close or better than Dame in a lot of categories. That's for the season anyway. Dame's averages since January have been something entirely different.

Yes but per36 doesn't measure what the player would actually do if given more time.

 

[Natebishop3]

Yes but per36 doesn't measure what the player would actually do if given more time.

That's exactly what it does. It shows what Irving would average if he was playing 36 minutes. Dame already averages 36 minutes.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Per36 shouldn't matter when choosing All NBA. You either get the stats or you don't.

That's what I said - most voters won't dig that deep.

BNM

Okay. Well.

Kyrie is shooting 49% from the field, to Dame's 44.6%

Kyrie is shooting 40.8% from three, to Dame's 38.2%

Kyrie has a 61 TS% to Dame's 60%

Dame is averaging 4 more minutes per game, and if you equal them up, they're very close in averages, but Kyrie is a more efficient scorer.

Dame is averaging 26.9 ppg, to Kyrie's 24.4

Dame is averaging 6.5 apg to Kyrie's 5.1

Dame is averaging 4.5 rpg to Kyrie's 3.8

That, and team record are all the stats most voters will even bother to look at. Those numbers, combined with reputation and perception will determine the vote. To most voters, Dame will have the statistical advantage and Kyrie will have team performance on his side. So, it comes down to reputation and perception. Last year, Dame had the reputation as a poor defender, and the perception was the team underachieved. This year, his defense is much better and the perception is the team has overachieved.

So, in spite of East Coast bias, I give Dame the nod. Of course, both could end up 2nd team All NBA, in which case that's all moot.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

That's exactly what it does. It shows what Irving would average if he was playing 36 minutes. Dame already averages 36 minutes.

Not really. More minutes can lead to more fatigue and more nagging injuries, which decreases efficiency. There becomes a point of diminishing returns. If not, every team would play their best players 48 MPG. Given Kyrie's injury history, he may simply be incapable of playing 4 more minutes per game at the same level of production. To assume he would be just as efficient at 36 MPG as he is at 32 MPG is just that - an assumption.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

That's what I said - most voters won't dig that deep.

BNM


Dame is averaging 26.9 ppg, to Kyrie's 24.4

Dame is averaging 6.5 apg to Kyrie's 5.1

Dame is averaging 4.5 rpg to Kyrie's 3.8

That, and team record are all the stats most voters will even bother to look at. Those numbers, combined with reputation and perception will determine the vote. To most voters, Dame will have the statistical advantage and Kyrie will have team performance on his side. So, it comes down to reputation and perception. Last year, Dame had the reputation as a poor defender, and the perception was the team underachieved. This year, his defense is much better and the perception is the team has overachieved.

So, in spite of East Coast bias, I give Dame the nod. Of course, both could end up 2nd team All NBA, in which case that's all moot.

BNM

I think Dame will beat him out, simply because of what he's putting up since the ASB. I'm just showing Kingspeed that in terms of season averages, the two players are VERY VERY close.

 

[Natebishop3]

Not really. More minutes can lead to more fatigue and more nagging injuries, which decreases efficiency. There becomes a point of diminishing returns. If not, every team would play their best players 48 MPG. Given Kyrie's injury history, he may simply be incapable of playing 4 more minutes per game at the same level of production. To assume he would be just as efficient at 36 MPG as he is at 32 MPG is just that - an assumption.

BNM

Regardless of whether he CAN do it, PER 36 is a projection of what he would do with 4 more minutes per game. Are you disagreeing with me about what PER 36 is?

 

[Boob-No-More]

I think Dame will beat him out, simply because of what he's putting up since the ASB. I'm just showing Kingspeed that in terms of season averages, the two players are VERY VERY close.

Yes, statistically, they are about as close as can be, especially if you look at per-36 numbers and advanced stats. Many voters won't.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

Yes, statistically, they are about as close as can be, especially if you look at per-36 numbers and advanced stats. Many voters won't.

BNM

Voters are fickle. Dame seems to be peaking at the perfect time, and his numbers have been outrageous. I think he has a great shot of making 1st team if we finish hot.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Regardless of whether he CAN do it, PER 36 is a projection of what he would do with 4 more minutes per game. Are you disagreeing with me about what PER 36 is?

It's not a projection. It's a straight linear interpolation. It assumes the same level of production, which is a huge assumption that's not entirely valid, as minutes increase. Do you really think Meyers Leonard would average 16 pg and 10 rpg if he played 36 minutes per game?

A true projection would look at the slope of the line to predict how production declines (or possibly improves) as minutes increase. For most players, it would look more like this:

Than this:

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Regardless of whether he CAN do it, PER 36 is a projection of what he would do with 4 more minutes per game. Are you disagreeing with me about what PER 36 is?

I'm disagreeing with the validity of it as an accurate projection of player performance vs. minutes played.

Do you believe a player who currently plays 18 MPG will be EXACTLY twice as productive if he suddenly starts playing twice as many minutes? Because, that's EXACTLY what per-36 number says he will do. Bullshit. And if it's not valid for a player whose minutes increase from 18 MPG to 36 MPG, then why is it assumed to be valid for a player whose playing time increases from 32 MPG to 36 MPG. Each additional minute played increases fatigue which, in general, decreases efficiency.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm disagreeing with the validity of it as an accurate projection of player performance vs. minutes played.

Do you believe a player who currently plays 18 MPG will be EXACTLY twice as productive if he suddenly starts playing twice as many minutes? Because, that's EXACTLY what per-36 number says he will do. Bullshit. And if it's not valid for a player whose minutes increase from 18 MPG to 36 MPG, then why is it assumed to be valid for a player whose playing time increases from 32 MPG to 36 MPG. Each additional minute played increases fatigue which, in general, decreases efficiency.

BNM

At the same token, Irving is a more efficient shooter, so it's possible he could put up even better numbers with more minutes

 

[Boob-No-More]

At the same token, Irving is a more efficient shooter, so it's possible he could put up even better numbers with more minutes

Barely (.610 vs. .601), and that again assumes his shooting efficiency won't suffer from the fatigue of playing an extra 4 MPG. I don't buy that at all. When shooters lose their legs, their shots tend to come up short. They just don't get the same lift on the shot as they do when they are fresh.

For example, Kyrie Irving TS% by quarter:

1st quarter TS = 65.8
2nd quarter TS = 60.0
3rd quarter TS = 60.0
4th quarter TS = 58.1

Notice a trend? Why would you think his efficiency wouldn't continue to decline with more playing time?

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

It's not a projection. It's a straight linear interpolation. It assumes the same level of production, which is a huge assumption that's not entirely valid, as minutes increase. Do you really think Meyers Leonard would average 16 pg and 10 rpg if he played 36 minutes per game?

A true projection would look at the slope of the line to predict how production declines (or possibly improves) as minutes increase. For most players, it would look more like this:

Than this:

BNM

Exactly

 

[KingSpeed]

I'm disagreeing with the validity of it as an accurate projection of player performance vs. minutes played.

Do you believe a player who currently plays 18 MPG will be EXACTLY twice as productive if he suddenly starts playing twice as many minutes? Because, that's EXACTLY what per-36 number says he will do. Bullshit. And if it's not valid for a player whose minutes increase from 18 MPG to 36 MPG, then why is it assumed to be valid for a player whose playing time increases from 32 MPG to 36 MPG. Each additional minute played increases fatigue which, in general, decreases efficiency.

BNM

Exactly. If he would, they'd play him 36 minutes!!

 

[KingSpeed]

At the same token, Irving is a more efficient shooter, so it's possible he could put up even better numbers with more minutes

Then they would play him more minutes. Look at Meyers Leonard's shooting percentages. They're incredible. Why aren't we playing him more? Because if we played him more, he wouldn't shoot like that.

 

[Natebishop3]

Then they would play him more minutes. Look at Meyers Leonard's shooting percentages. They're incredible. Why aren't we playing him more? Because if we played him more, he wouldn't shoot like that.

King are you really comparing Kyrie to Meyers Leonard?

 

[KingSpeed]

King are you really comparing Kyrie to Meyers Leonard?

No. I'm just saying per36 is a bullshit meaningless stat. I've always thought so.

 

[BonesJones]

No. I'm just saying per36 is a bullshit meaningless stat. I've always thought so.

How? It measures per minute production. If someone scores 12 points in 12 minutes, it's better than 18 points in 36 minutes.

 

[BonesJones]

Then they would play him more minutes. Look at Meyers Leonard's shooting percentages. They're incredible. Why aren't we playing him more? Because if we played him more, he wouldn't shoot like that.

Uh huh 33 minutes compared to 36 minutes is a lot different than Meyers and Dames minute counts. C'mon dude.

 

[BonesJones]

Barely (.610 vs. .601), and that again assumes his shooting efficiency won't suffer from the fatigue of playing an extra 4 MPG. I don't buy that at all. When shooters lose their legs, their shots tend to come up short. They just don't get the same lift on the shot as they do when they are fresh.

For example, Kyrie Irving TS% by quarter:

1st quarter TS = 65.8
2nd quarter TS = 60.0
3rd quarter TS = 60.0
4th quarter TS = 58.1

Notice a trend? Why would you think his efficiency wouldn't continue to decline with more playing time?

BNM

You really think he's getting fatigued playing 32 minutes a game? C'mon now...

 

[Boob-No-More]

You really think he's getting fatigued playing 32 minutes a game? C'mon now...

Yes. I'm not saying he's totally gassed. Fatigue is gradual. Any player will be less fresh in minute 36 than in minute 1. Production tends to decrease as playing time increases. If that wasn't true, coaches would all play their best players 40+ minutes per game.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I'm starting to rethink my position on this. If Dame is now consistently being considered a top-5 MVP candidate, and he continues comparable-level play through the rest of the season, then it would be tough to see how any other guards would unseat him for that spot. I personally would probably vote for Kyrie over Dame--and also think CP3 is still the superior overall player--but I think this past month has put Dame into the driver's seat for the 1st team.

 

[lawai'a]

does dame's contract have any bonuses for making all nba teams that might have luxury tax/payroll implications?

 

[BonesJones]

Yes. I'm not saying he's totally gassed. Fatigue is gradual. Any player will be less fresh in minute 36 than in minute 1. Production tends to decrease as playing time increases. If that wasn't true, coaches would all play their best players 40+ minutes per game.

BNM

I doubt Kyries production is because he's playing 32mpg. Some players start hot, some end hot.. He's not ding what he's ding because he's playing "only" 32 minutes per game. 36 minutes has been shown as optimal, so 32 and 36 minutes isn't the same as 36 compared to 40 minutes.

If this was Dame, this wouldn't be an argument. But since it's about Dame vs. Other PGs, people are gonna search for any way to discount other PGs.

 

[Boob-No-More]

36 minutes has been shown as optimal

Link please.

BNM

 

[BonesJones]

Link please.

BNM

You can do your own research.