NBA comps for draft picks

[illmatic99]

And, let's be fair, there at least was the poor man's Larry Bird comparison that could be made with Morrison at the time. Again, though, outliers. For every Bird and Lillard and Ja that make it from mid-major schools there are dozens of players who get scouted or drafted who can't make that jump in talent level.

TBH, I only brought up the WCC thing tongue in cheek (guess he ignored the smiley face while lecturing me about the PAC 12).

But my point about Chet's high variance in projection remains. We have people comparing him to Durant and KG in this thread. If that's the case, he should be a consensus number 1 pick. But he isn't because I think people making mocks are just as afraid as I am that he turns out like a bust.

 

[PCmor7]

TBH, I only brought up the WCC thing tongue in cheek (guess he ignored the smiley face while lecturing me about the PAC 12).

But my point about Chet's high variance in projection remains. We have people comparing him to Durant and KG in this thread. If that's the case, he should be a consensus number 1 pick. But he isn't because I think people making mocks are just as afraid as I am that he turns out like a bust.

I don't know really what's so controversial about wondering if a guy who is 7-0, 195 pounds with narrow shoulders and hips is going to be able to physically compete with players who sometimes are 7 inches shorter that outweigh him by 25-30 pounds. For people to get triggered over that just makes me wonder where their belief in him is coming from. Same with the not playing a high-quality of competition on a regular basis like most of the others competing with him for the top draft spot.

 

[JDC]

Trevor Ariza seems like a pretty good outcome for Tari Eason. Like most here, he'd be a good target if the Pels pick conveys. Screams impact 4th-5th starter if the shooting hits to a reasonable degree (his indicators are pretty good despite some funky mechanics).

 

[illmatic99]

effortless stroke

 

[Hoopguru]

2014 Jokic was drafted 41 during a taco bell commercial. He was still in the green room where mostly top picks are hosted. He was able to go across stage but it wasnt caught on the tube.

 

[blazerkor]

What??? If people were saying that Giannis would get posted up successfully by Robert Convington, would you not disagree?

Just to let you know, I don't give a shit that he's white. Giannis was drafted fifteenth because people were worried that he could be successfully posted up by small ball posts but no one had concerns about his level of athleticism, I know you don't have concerns about that with Chet, I do and it's not because of the color of his skin it's because he is very obviously not an elite athlete at the NBA level, when you combine that with his lack of strength it's a pretty bad sum. It means he has nothing but his guile and length to help him on the defensive end... I have his defensive bbiq at a really high level and his length isn't subjective. I just don't know if those two things will get him where he needs to be in order to be an all around solid defender at the NBA level. I think he might be a liability that needs a lot of help in a lot of defensive positions on the floor but I know he'll block a bunch of shots and pull down a bunch of boards. He might just be a shot blocking and rebounding specialist who is a liability elsewhere. Offensively, I really like what he brings.

I just couldn't take a guy that I have those kinds of suspicions about with the first pick but like I just said in one of the threads building the site's big board, he's still third on my big board for this team, given his strengths and how they fit our needs. I mean, I'd rather find someone like you who is high on him and trade him if we find ourselves with him highest on our board but if we have to keep the guy we draft he's my number three. So I'm obviously not too low on him. Maybe we're a lot closer on our evaluation of Chet but I'm going overboard based on a lot of people having him as the number one prospect in this draft and you might be going a little further than your actual evaluation because you feel you have to defend him against criticism you see as unfair.

 

[blazerfan11]

Trevor Ariza seems like a pretty good outcome for Tari Eason. Like most here, he'd be a good target if the Pels pick conveys. Screams impact 4th-5th starter if the shooting hits to a reasonable degree (his indicators are pretty good despite some funky mechanics).

I hope if there's a player like Eason that some people think could be a defensive player of the year candidate that we take a gamble on him instead of Grant.

 

[BonesJones]

The NBA's not high school. Dame is an outlier, not the rule. And Ant took four years to play to the level worthy of a first-round pick.

Like I said above, weird for a guy to say other people are cherry-picking criticisms with Chet based on CHET'S OWN PERFORMANCES by fixating on the two or three guys out of a couple of hundred that do make it. Those guys all faced those questions and a lot more didn't make it than did, but none of them are Chet Holmgren.

It just doesn't seem like your objectivity is strong on this one, Bones.

I'm being fully objective. Guys make it from small schools or smaller conferences all the time. The dude was the #1 player in the country and played consistently top notch competition at U19 and on the Nike circuit. Gonzaga played some tough teams during non-conference play and the WCC had 3 tournament teams (same as rhe Pac-12). Dudes played against competition.

 

[BonesJones]

I don't know really what's so controversial about wondering if a guy who is 7-0, 195 pounds with narrow shoulders and hips is going to be able to physically compete with players who sometimes are 7 inches shorter that outweigh him by 25-30 pounds. For people to get triggered over that just makes me wonder where their belief in him is coming from. Same with the not playing a high-quality of competition on a regular basis like most of the others competing with him for the top draft spot.

Nobody's triggered. You're coming with some real weird energy by saying I'm triggered and claiming I have some personal connection or whatever you're on about. I've never seen Robert Covington successfully postup anyone. Arguing that he wouldn't successfully post up a 7'1 shotblocker with elite length isn't crazy. Stop gaslighting me.

 

[BonesJones]

You say you don't have him number 1, then draw parallels to Durant and attack anyone everyone who brings up talking points against him.

The only parallel to Durant is how skinny he is. People didn't want to draft KD because of how skinny he was too. Dudes been just fine. But if I argue a narrative, that counts as attacking someone? Seriously?

If thats the case, then its time to get off this forum again.

 

[illmatic99]

The only parallel to Durant is how skinny he is. People didn't want to draft KD because of how skinny he was too. Dudes been just fine. But if I argue a narrative, that counts as attacking someone? Seriously?

If thats the case, then its time to get off this forum again.

You are the guy suggesting racism when people are bringing up basketball reasons to not draft him.

Maybe you were too young in 2006, but this is verbatim what quite a few folks in this community and other forums/ radio shows brought up about drafting Morrison.

speaking of gaslighting....

 

[Hoopguru]

This place is getting as bad as politics, take no prisoners.

 

[PCmor7]

The only parallel to Durant is how skinny he is. People didn't want to draft KD because of how skinny he was too. Dudes been just fine. But if I argue a narrative, that counts as attacking someone? Seriously?

If thats the case, then its time to get off this forum again.

Irony:

Posting this immediately after saying one hasn't been triggered.

Bones, you know basketball and you have a lot to add to most discussions, but you clearly can't put personal feelings aside to any degree when discussing Holmgren. If it bothers you that much that people can illustrate exactly why they disagree with your evaluation of the kid, then, yeah, maybe you need to take a break for a few days and do something that put you in a good frame of mind and clears your head. Stressing to this point over something like this where you can't even acknowledge the validity of other data-supported cases will drive you nuts, and it really isn't worth it.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think most people have Smith. Ivey, and Banchero in the top 3. Some draft sites also have Chet in the top 3 as well. I think Bones also has stated several times he would not choose him 1st or 2nd. So my question is how for all of you questioning his talent would you let him fall before you take him? 10, 20, 2nd round?

As a biased Duck fan, I looked at Bol Bol and wanted no part of him in the first round. His skill set did not suggest NBA to me at all. But Chet is no Bol Bol.
Equally as skinny but he has way more skill. I get the concern but I would definitely take him with the New Orleans pick, and probably the 6th pick. I like him as a spread 4 . Every player in the draft has questions except maybe the top 2 or 3.

So how far would he have to slip before you all would draft him?

 

[blazerfan11]

I think most people have Smith. Ivey, and Banchero in the top 3. Some draft sites also have Chet in the top 3 as well. I think Bones also has stated several times he would not choose him 1st or 2nd. So my question is how for all of you questioning his talent would you let him fall before you take him? 10, 20, 2nd round?

As a biased Duck fan, I looked at Bol Bol and wanted no part of him in the first round. His skill set did not suggest NBA to me at all. But Chet is no Bol Bol.
Equally as skinny but he has way more skill. I get the concern but I would definitely take him with the New Orleans pick, and probably the 6th pick. I like him as a spread 4 . Every player in the draft has questions except maybe the top 2 or 3.

So how far would he have to slip before you all would draft him?

All of the top picks have question marks, which is why there is no consensus number one.

 

[PCmor7]

I think most people have Smith. Ivey, and Banchero in the top 3. Some draft sites also have Chet in the top 3 as well. I think Bones also has stated several times he would not choose him 1st or 2nd. So my question is how for all of you questioning his talent would you let him fall before you take him? 10, 20, 2nd round?

As a biased Duck fan, I looked at Bol Bol and wanted no part of him in the first round. His skill set did not suggest NBA to me at all. But Chet is no Bol Bol.
Equally as skinny but he has way more skill. I get the concern but I would definitely take him with the New Orleans pick, and probably the 6th pick. I like him as a spread 4 . Every player in the draft has questions except maybe the top 2 or 3.

So how far would he have to slip before you all would draft him?

I've posted several times I have him in the top five. In which spot I'd pick him depended on what I had on my team. I have Jabari Smith No. 1. I'd probably go Ivey 2. I kind of go back and forth in the order. Maybe Banchero 3, Holmgren 4, Sharpe 5 at this very moment.

 

[BonesJones]

You are the guy suggesting racism when people are bringing up basketball reasons to not draft him.

Maybe you were too young in 2006, but this is verbatim what quite a few folks in this community and other forums/ radio shows brought up about drafting Morrison.

speaking of gaslighting....

 

[BonesJones]

You are the guy suggesting racism when people are bringing up basketball reasons to not draft him.

Maybe you were too young in 2006, but this is verbatim what quite a few folks in this community and other forums/ radio shows brought up about drafting Morrison.

speaking of gaslighting....

I'M not the one suggesting racism. There's people in this forum that have been adamant about not drafting "White American Born Bigs". I've had multiple people tell me they don't want Chet for that reason. I've seen multiple people say that. Do you think I'm lying about that? I hear from many Blazer fans outside this forum because I have a platform, and I'm not accusing you or PCMor of saying those things. But I've heard enough people say it... Then when people come in here and their basketball reasons for criticizing him is stuff that is cherry-picked and not consistently held against other prospects or reasons that our (arguably) two best players have proven as irrelevant, or something as outlandish as Robert Covington would have success posting him up, then yeah I'm going to argue against that. But then that apparently means I have "personal feelings" if I argue that which is crap to me.

Bones, you know basketball and you have a lot to add to most discussions, but you clearly can't put personal feelings aside to any degree when discussing Holmgren. If it bothers you that much that people can illustrate exactly why they disagree with your evaluation of the kid, then, yeah, maybe you need to take a break for a few days and do something that put you in a good frame of mind and clears your head. Stressing to this point over something like this where you can't even acknowledge the validity of other data-supported cases will drive you nuts, and it really isn't worth it.

I'm a Gonzaga fan, yes. I wouldn't draft Drew Timme with the last pick in the draft. I love the guy but he didn't improve upon anything he needed to after coming back his junior year. So no, I'm not biased. This is a bit of an exaggeration, but it's like if someone came in this forum and said Dame couldn't shoot, then tried to claim that you had "personal feelings", "needed a break", and were "emotional" if you exclaimed how outlandish that was. I'm arguing a bunch of BS. Would be the same way with any outlandish takes for any players that played anywhere that I had watched enough to know weren't true.

 

[blazerkor]

I think most people have Smith. Ivey, and Banchero in the top 3. Some draft sites also have Chet in the top 3 as well. I think Bones also has stated several times he would not choose him 1st or 2nd. So my question is how for all of you questioning his talent would you let him fall before you take him? 10, 20, 2nd round?

As a biased Duck fan, I looked at Bol Bol and wanted no part of him in the first round. His skill set did not suggest NBA to me at all. But Chet is no Bol Bol.
Equally as skinny but he has way more skill. I get the concern but I would definitely take him with the New Orleans pick, and probably the 6th pick. I like him as a spread 4 . Every player in the draft has questions except maybe the top 2 or 3.

So how far would he have to slip before you all would draft him?

I would roll the dice on him if we had to keep our pick and he was available when we picked but Jabari and Paolo had been taken. So for me it's as high as third but I would do everything in my power to find a team that values Chet the way that @BonesJones does (which I'm sure there are some) and get a player that has shown what they can do in the NBA at PF that has that high value that some put on Chet. Chet just has high bust potential but I know I could be dead wrong about him being too slow and in that case he could have all star potential. For our team I'd like to stay away from high bust potential guys or guys that need a season or three before they'll meaningfully contribute to playoff wins.

 

[blazerkor]

I'M not the one suggesting racism. There's people in this forum that have been adamant about not drafting "White American Born Bigs". I've had multiple people tell me they don't want Chet for that reason. I've seen multiple people say that. Do you think I'm lying about that? I hear from many Blazer fans outside this forum because I have a platform, and I'm not accusing you or PCMor of saying those things. But I've heard enough people say it... Then when people come in here and their basketball reasons for criticizing him is stuff that is cherry-picked and not consistently held against other prospects or reasons that our (arguably) two best players have proven as irrelevant, or something as outlandish as Robert Covington would have success posting him up, then yeah I'm going to argue against that. But then that apparently means I have "personal feelings" if I argue that which is crap to me.
I'm a Gonzaga fan, yes. I wouldn't draft Drew Timme with the last pick in the draft. I love the guy but he didn't improve upon anything he needed to after coming back his junior year. So no, I'm not biased. This is a bit of an exaggeration, but it's like if someone came in this forum and said Dame couldn't shoot, then tried to claim that you had "personal feelings", "needed a break", and were "emotional" if you exclaimed how outlandish that was. I'm arguing a bunch of BS. Would be the same way with any outlandish takes for any players that played anywhere that I had watched enough to know weren't true.

I get it that RoCo rarely if ever posts someone up and that was my point but please break down for me why he wouldn't be able to do it to Chet. You make money breaking shit like this down, so enlighten me. It's my belief that RoCo is stronger than Chet, is that not something that we agree on? I also know RoCo has a much lower center of gravity than Chet. Again correct me if I'm wrong but if you're stronger than another player you can usually back them down and having a lower center of gravity helps you in that process. So why couldn't a guy that almost never posts up like RoCo back Chet down under the rim and then use the rim to protect their shot and put in a layup. I realize that there's help defense but if Chet needs help defense when a guy as unlikely as RoCo starts to back him down, that would make him a major liability wouldn't it?

If this comes off as me being condescending, I'm not, I really want to know why you think it's so ridiculous because that's all you keep saying about the criticisms about Chet is that they're wrong but not why they're wrong... if you have a breakdown from your website or youtube channel that explain this, you can just post the link and I'll click on it and see what you have to say but you might want to give at least a brief explanation with the link so those in here who won't click on it can understand where you're coming from instead of just being told they're wrong without any explanation that isn't extremely hyperbolic.

 

[BonesJones]

I would roll the dice on him if we had to keep our pick and he was available when we picked but Jabari and Paolo had been taken. So for me it's as high as third but I would do everything in my power to find a team that values Chet the way that @BonesJones does (which I'm sure there are some) and get a player that has shown what they can do in the NBA at PF that has that high value that some put on Chet. Chet just has high bust potential but I know I could be dead wrong about him being too slow and in that case he could have all star potential. For our team I'd like to stay away from high bust potential guys or guys that need a season or three before they'll meaningfully contribute to playoff wins.

Then watch as Chet becomes a cross between Gobert and Jokic

 

[BankTeller]

Do you guys think Christian Koloko will be available when we pick in the early 2nd?

If he is, I think you have to take a look at him, especially if you don’t look at Duren in the lotto.

 

[blazerkor]

Do you guys think Christian Koloko will be available when we pick in the early 2nd?

If he is, I think you have to take a look at him, especially if you don’t look at Duren in the lotto.

I think this draft has guys like Koloko all over the place but yeah, a bunch of mocks have him available at 37 and I would definitely take him if he was still there. I would rather have Orlando Robinson if he enters the draft and drops that far.

 

[BonesJones]

I get it that RoCo rarely if ever posts someone up and that was my point but please break down for me why he wouldn't be able to do it to Chet. You make money breaking shit like this down, so enlighten me. It's my belief that RoCo is stronger than Chet, is that not something that we agree on? I also know RoCo has a much lower center of gravity than Chet. Again correct me if I'm wrong but if you're stronger than another player you can usually back them down and having a lower center of gravity helps you in that process. So why couldn't a guy that almost never posts up like RoCo back Chet down under the rim and then use the rim to protect their shot and put in a layup. I realize that there's help defense but if Chet needs help defense when a guy as unlikely as RoCo starts to back him down, that would make him a major liability wouldn't it?

If this comes off as me being condescending, I'm not, I really want to know why you think it's so ridiculous because that's all you keep saying about the criticisms about Chet is that they're wrong but not why they're wrong... if you have a breakdown from your website or youtube channel that explain this, you can just post the link and I'll click on it and see what you have to say but you might want to give at least a brief explanation with the link so those in here who won't click on it can understand where you're coming from instead of just being told they're wrong without any explanation that isn't extremely hyperbolic.

If people say "he gets blown by a lot" how do I explain why that's wrong? Someone implied that he fouled out all the time and I said he fouled out 3 times all year. When people say he's too skinny all I can say is "remember the last time we thought someone was too skinny?". I think it's reasonable to expect that he'll get stronger and put on weight.

Here's why people are wrong about smaller guys posting up Chet. Even if a guy like Crowder or RoCo backed Chet all the way under the rim, they still have to shoot over him! Duren backed down Chet all the way in the Memphis-Gonzaga game and Chet blocked him both times. If RoCo is one foot away from the basket with Chet guarding him, I'm taking Chet in that matchup 100% of the time.

I can't breakdown footage because I've decided not to mess with stuff that gets copyright-claimed. That's why I do so much graphically to try to make up for that in terms of presentation. But there's other guys out there that do a great job breaking down footage. My favorite is Hoop Intellect who just dropped a video on Chet recently. He looked at Chet guarding on the perimeter starting at 2:13 in that video.

 

[blazerkor]

If people say "he gets blown by a lot" how do I explain why that's wrong? Someone implied that he fouled out all the time and I said he fouled out 3 times all year. When people say he's too skinny all I can say is "remember the last time we thought someone was too skinny?". I think it's reasonable to expect that he'll get stronger and put on weight.

Here's why people are wrong about smaller guys posting up Chet. Even if a guy like Crowder or RoCo backed Chet all the way under the rim, they still have to shoot over him! Duren backed down Chet all the way in the Memphis-Gonzaga game and Chet blocked him both times. If RoCo is one foot away from the basket with Chet guarding him, I'm taking Chet in that matchup 100% of the time.

I can't breakdown footage because I've decided not to mess with stuff that gets copyright-claimed. That's why I do so much graphically to try to make up for that in terms of presentation. But there's other guys out there that do a great job breaking down footage. My favorite is Hoop Intellect who just dropped a video on Chet recently. He looked at Chet guarding on the perimeter starting at 2:13 in that video.

Thanks, I still don't know how his speed will translate in the NBA but you make some really great points. Like I said if we can't get a trade that makes more sense than he does and he's available, he's the third guy on my board after Jabari and Paolo but picking him would make me really nervous.

I do think when you say stuff like

Then watch as Chet becomes a cross between Gobert and Jokic

it makes you seem pretty biased but maybe the smiley face meant that was a jocular exaggeration.

Also I don't think a cross between Rudy and Joker could play well next to Nurk.

 

[blazerfan11]

There seems to be a myth that there are no big problems with Jabari Smith.
Jabari Smith is 6 foot 10 and has a two-point shooting percentage of 43.5%.
Jabari Smith is not good at creating his own shot.
It's easy to see the bust potential here, either as an overall bust (he can't shoot a high 3-point percentage in the NBA) or a relative bust (compared to the other top picks).

 

[PCmor7]

Do you guys think Christian Koloko will be available when we pick in the early 2nd?

If he is, I think you have to take a look at him, especially if you don’t look at Duren in the lotto.

Good chance. Like Kor said, too, there are a lot of players similar to him that even if he worked out well and won someone over to pick him late in the first, there should be several other options still there in the second who are of similar quality.

 

[blazerkor]

There seems to be a myth that there are no big problems with Jabari Smith.
Jabari Smith is 6 foot 10 and has a two-point shooting percentage of 43.5%.
Jabari Smith is not good at creating his own shot.
It's easy to see the bust potential here, either as an overall bust (he can't shoot a high 3-point percentage in the NBA) or a relative bust (compared to the other top picks).

I think the theory is that he is a tenacious defender, who attacks the basket on offense when set up in cutting situations and he's the best shooter at the top of the draft. Him not being able to put the ball on the floor makes him a guy that can't take over a game without someone playing with him that can facilitate the offense. That being said, his floor is a difference maker from three, on the defensive end and as a cutter... the guy is going to be really really good if he doesn't learn how to handle the rock and all of his coordination and other skills signify that he should be able to learn how to handle the rock. So yeah, if a first pick has to be an all star he could be a potential relative bust and if you want the guy who will almost definitely be an all star you should pick Paolo but Jabari is going to make very meaningful impacts on both ends of the floor and you can't say that for sure about Paolo.

I grapple with it, I lean towards Jabari but it's not easy because Paolo has his moments on defense but are we just going to be waiting for him to pop defensively his whole early career before giving up on that like Melo or will he put in the work on both ends? Jabari's motor not being a question mark is what makes me believe he'll get better at creating for himself on offense.

 

[PCmor7]

There seems to be a myth that there are no big problems with Jabari Smith.
Jabari Smith is 6 foot 10 and has a two-point shooting percentage of 43.5%.
Jabari Smith is not good at creating his own shot.
It's easy to see the bust potential here, either as an overall bust (he can't shoot a high 3-point percentage in the NBA) or a relative bust (compared to the other top picks).

His handle and shot-creating ability are absolutely valid questions marks. I don't think they are bust-causing issues, though; I think how his handle develops will be the difference between him being a good player and a great player.

Here's my reasoning:

1. His shot tool is fantastic. Mechanically, it's a terrific-looking and, more importantly, it goes in. His 3-point % is great for a player of any size; it's fantastic for a guy 6-10. His FT% indicates he should be a good shooter. And, he gets his shot off quickly with elevation.
2. When you have a 4 that can shoot with that range consistently, it's a huge asset in spacing the floor.
3. Almost half his shots are 3s.
4. I suspect his 2-pt shooting numbers go down when he plays with his back to the basket, which isn't the necessity for a 4 that it used to be.
5. Handling the ball at the 4 spot is a luxury, not a necessity.
6. He's an above-average defensive player in every respect ... defensive win shares, steals, blocks, defensive rebounds, defensive box plus-minus. Top length and agility.
7. While not a great dribbler, he is a tremendous passer.
8. He accomplished all this while playing against other players who are going to be drafted, in NBA camps and in the NBA. And he did that as a 19-year-old.

Considering all that, unless he completely doesn't get it, his down-side is Robert Horry or Rashard Lewis. That might not be great for a No. 1 overall pick, but that's a very useful player on a championship-level team. If he either gets better with his back-to-the bucket or finds a way to play around the weakness, his ceiling is Chris Bosh-like. Or a Michael Porter Jr. who is better on the defensive end.

 

[MickZagger]

Thanks, I still don't know how his speed will translate in the NBA but you make some really great points. Like I said if we can't get a trade that makes more sense than he does and he's available, he's the third guy on my board after Jabari and Paolo but picking him would make me really nervous.

I do think when you say stuff like

it makes you seem pretty biased but maybe the smiley face meant that was a jocular exaggeration.

Also I don't think a cross between Rudy and Joker could play well next to Nurk.

I think a cross between Gobert and Jokic would take precedence over Nurk. lol