NBA comps for draft picks

[illmatic99]

(disregard the order, it's not my opinion, I'm just using ESPN's current mock as a reference).

Format:
- Player -- (best case scenario) -- (worst case scenario)

- Chet Holmgren -- (Evan Mobley) -- (Bol Bol)
- Jabari Smith -- ( Michael Porter Jr. Khris Middleton) -- (Cam Johnson)
- Paolo Banchero -- (modern day Chris Webber) -- (Julius Randle)
- Jaden Ivey -- (Donovan Mitchell) -- (Coby White)
- Keegan Murray -- (Carmelo Anthony) -- (Tobias Harris)
- Shaedon Sharpe -- TBD
- Jalen Duren -- (Robert Williams) -- (Dale Davis)
- A.J. Griffin -- (Desmond Bane) -- (Max Struss)
- Johnny Davis -- (Devin Booker) -- (Marshon Brooks)
- Dyson Daniels -- (Nic Batum) -- (Evan Turner, portland version)
- Bennedict Mathurin -- (Andre Iguodala) -- (Cam Reddish)
- Ochai Agbaji -- (Mikal Bridges) -- (Caleb Martin)
- Jeremy Sochan -- (Boris Diaw) -- (Danuel House)
- Ty Ty Washingon -- (Monte Morris) -- (Frank Ntilikina)
- Tari Eason -- (Shawn Marion) -- (Keita Bates-Diop)

Obviously some players with super high variance, while others with not much difference between best and worst case scenarios in my projections. My Chet comps is why he scares me-- if he works out, he's the absolute best guy we can get in the draft, but I project Murray/Banchero to be guys who will have higher floors who would immediately boost our talent even if they don't hit their ceilings.

I wanna see what you guys think. I think in the end, I'll most likely tend towards guys with a high floor just so we don't get a guy with high bust potential, but Cronin might feel like taking a big swing at a potential superstar.

 

[theprunetang]

Um. Stay away from Dyson Daniel's? Haha

 

[illmatic99]

On a second thought I don't think my MPJ comp for Jabari sits well. Might need to re-think that because Jabari is a far more aggressive defender.

I'll add a taller Khris Middleton to the comp instead. Considering even he's not necessarily a lockdown defender, this probably highlights the intrigue in Jabari. You have a great shooter on high volume who is 6'10, but also gets after it on D. So few guys in the league who fit that mold.

Regardless, his development in the NBA will hinge completely on how he improves his handle.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Think Jabari or Banchero is a better fit for the Blazers next season? I've been thinking about this.

Banchero has the higher ceiling because of his handles, but Jabari is more likely to reach it and is ready to plug and play immediately. He's better defensively and is already a fantastic shooter.

The Blazers would be lucky to add either.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

(disregard the order, it's not my opinion, I'm just using ESPN's current mock as a reference).

Format:
- Player -- (best case scenario) -- (worst case scenario)

- Chet Holmgren -- (Evan Mobley) -- (Bol Bol)
- Jabari Smith -- ( Michael Porter Jr. Khris Middleton) -- (Cam Johnson)
- Paolo Banchero -- (modern day Chris Webber) -- (Julius Randle)
- Jaden Ivey -- (Donovan Mitchell) -- (Coby White)
- Keegan Murray -- (Carmelo Anthony) -- (Tobias Harris)
- Shaedon Sharpe -- TBD
- Jalen Duren -- (Robert Williams) -- (Dale Davis)
- A.J. Griffin -- (Desmond Bane) -- (Max Struss)
- Johnny Davis -- (Devin Booker) -- (Marshon Brooks)
- Dyson Daniels -- (Nic Batum) -- (Evan Turner, portland version)
- Bennedict Mathurin -- (Andre Iguodala) -- (Cam Reddish)
- Ochai Agbaji -- (Mikal Bridges) -- (Caleb Martin)
- Jeremy Sochan -- (Boris Diaw) -- (Danuel House)
- Ty Ty Washingon -- (Monte Morris) -- (Frank Ntilikina)
- Tari Eason -- (Shawn Marion) -- (Keita Bates-Diop)

Obviously some players with super high variance, while others with not much difference between best and worst case scenarios in my projections. My Chet comps is why he scares me-- if he works out, he's the absolute best guy we can get in the draft, but I project Murray/Banchero to be guys who will have higher floors who would immediately boost our talent even if they don't hit their ceilings.

I wanna see what you guys think. I think in the end, I'll most likely tend towards guys with a high floor just so we don't get a guy with high bust potential, but Cronin might feel like taking a big swing at a potential superstar.

Due to his outside shot, I don't think Chet has a legitimate comp as a best case. Have we ever seen a 7-footer who can hit 40% from 3, break his defender down off the dribble, and also anchor a defense and block 3-4 shots a game?

 

[illmatic99]

Due to his outside shot, I don't think Chet has a legitimate comp as a best case. Have we ever seen a 7-footer who can hit 40% from 3, break his defender down off the dribble, and also anchor a defense and block 3-4 shots a game?

olynyk?

 

[RR7]

olynyk?

minus anchoring a defense

 

[PtldPlatypus]

olynyk?

Perhaps I'm alone here, but I've certainly never thought "DPOY caliber" when thinking of Olynyk.

 

[Hoopguru]

Due to his outside shot, I don't think Chet has a legitimate comp as a best case. Have we ever seen a 7-footer who can hit 40% from 3, break his defender down off the dribble, and also anchor a defense and block 3-4 shots a game?

Kevin Durant

 

[illmatic99]

Perhaps I'm alone here, but I've certainly never thought "DPOY caliber" when thinking of Olynyk.

Porzingis before he got hurt.

 

[HailBlazers]

olynyk?

Ok @MickZagger

 

[Phatguysrule]

Kevin Durant

But even Durant wasn't that skinny... Lol

 

[illmatic99]

Due to his outside shot, I don't think Chet has a legitimate comp as a best case. Have we ever seen a 7-footer who can hit 40% from 3, break his defender down off the dribble, and also anchor a defense and block 3-4 shots a game?

Are we sure he can do all these things? I want to see if he can break anyone down who doesn't play in the WCC.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Are we sure he can do all these things? I want to see if he can break anyone down who doesn't play in the WCC.

We're not sure if he can do any of these things at an NBA level; that's why it's his best case.

 

[BankTeller]

(disregard the order, it's not my opinion, I'm just using ESPN's current mock as a reference).

Format:
- Player -- (best case scenario) -- (worst case scenario)

- Chet Holmgren -- (Evan Mobley) -- (Bol Bol)
- Jabari Smith -- ( Michael Porter Jr. Khris Middleton) -- (Cam Johnson)
- Paolo Banchero -- (modern day Chris Webber) -- (Julius Randle)
- Jaden Ivey -- (Donovan Mitchell) -- (Coby White)
- Keegan Murray -- (Carmelo Anthony) -- (Tobias Harris)
- Shaedon Sharpe -- TBD
- Jalen Duren -- (Robert Williams) -- (Dale Davis)
- A.J. Griffin -- (Desmond Bane) -- (Max Struss)
- Johnny Davis -- (Devin Booker) -- (Marshon Brooks)
- Dyson Daniels -- (Nic Batum) -- (Evan Turner, portland version)
- Bennedict Mathurin -- (Andre Iguodala) -- (Cam Reddish)
- Ochai Agbaji -- (Mikal Bridges) -- (Caleb Martin)
- Jeremy Sochan -- (Boris Diaw) -- (Danuel House)
- Ty Ty Washingon -- (Monte Morris) -- (Frank Ntilikina)
- Tari Eason -- (Shawn Marion) -- (Keita Bates-Diop)

Obviously some players with super high variance, while others with not much difference between best and worst case scenarios in my projections. My Chet comps is why he scares me-- if he works out, he's the absolute best guy we can get in the draft, but I project Murray/Banchero to be guys who will have higher floors who would immediately boost our talent even if they don't hit their ceilings.

I wanna see what you guys think. I think in the end, I'll most likely tend towards guys with a high floor just so we don't get a guy with high bust potential, but Cronin might feel like taking a big swing at a potential superstar.

I personally don’t think Carmelo Anthony is Keegan Murray’s ceiling. I actually think Tobias Harris is closer to being his ceiling than his floor, although Murray could probably be an overall better player. But then again, I’m probably more less high on Murray than most.

Not really sure who his floor is.

 

[BankTeller]

Think Jabari or Banchero is a better fit for the Blazers next season? I've been thinking about this.

Banchero has the higher ceiling because of his handles, but Jabari is more likely to reach it and is ready to plug and play immediately. He's better defensively and is already a fantastic shooter.

The Blazers would be lucky to add either.

Personally, I think Smith is the better fit. I think you might in the minority in thinking Banchero has a higher ceiling overall, but I guess it gets more even in opinion as you consider specific teams’ needs. I personally think Smith would have a higher ceiling on this team than Banchero because he’s more athletic and is already a better defender, two things we desperately need in the frontcourt.

A lot of Banchero’s strengths like mid-post scoring and initiating an offense from the PF position, we don’t really need. Banchero would be great stepping into a situation without a legit answer at their PG position, whereas Smith would be great stepping into a situation where he can just shoot 3’s and play defense.

Smith is also still 18. While Banchero has a better handle, it’s not like Smith doesn’t have a handle at all. His handle looks good in the open court, and he can work on it as he continues to develop. His spot up shot is already polished for an 18 year old. Banchero I can see becoming a Chris Webber. Smith I can see his ceiling being a 6’10 Paul George, a true PF-sized version of PG.

From a right now standpoint as well, Dame/Simons/Smith would be a much better fit with Nurkic in the middle than with either Banchero or Holmgren.

But I agree, I’d be happy with either Banchero or Smith.

 

[STOMP]

Due to his outside shot, I don't think Chet has a legitimate comp as a best case. Have we ever seen a 7-footer who can hit 40% from 3, break his defender down off the dribble, and also anchor a defense and block 3-4 shots a game?

Kevin Garnett with a better shot. Like KG (& Durant), I think Chet will start his career primarily matched up on SFs

STOMP

 

[blazerkor]

Kevin Garnett with a better shot. Like KG, I think Chet will start his career primarily matched up on SFs

STOMP

He's not even close to the athlete Garnett was and he's way skinnier. There's no way that he is defending SFs. I think he'll have a tough time handling the speed of most PFs in the league.

 

[STOMP]

He's not even close to the athlete Garnett was and he's way skinnier. There's no way that he is defending SFs. I think he'll have a tough time handling the speed of most PFs in the league.

We shall see, the predraft hasn't even happened yet but I recall how skinny KG was as a rook even though he skipped his predraft. Are you aware that most teams seek to switch on screens these days? Chet is a 3&D monster.

STOMP

 

[illmatic99]

Kevin Garnett with a better shot. Like KG (& Durant), I think Chet will start his career primarily matched up on SFs

STOMP

do you see Chet as a can't miss prospect?

KG mighta been skinny, but his strength was really underrated, even as a youngin. He never got pushed around in the NBA. I see Chet getting pushed around frequently by non-prospects playing in a tertiary conference.

 

[STOMP]

do you see Chet as a can't miss prospect?

KG mighta been skinny, but his strength was really underrated, even as a youngin. He never got pushed around in the NBA.

I see Chet getting pushed around frequently by non-prospects playing in a tertiary conference.

The game was played outside in back in KG's day but today it's reversed. Few players have a back to the basket game let alone play on a team that features that as their mode of attack. It's about making and defending the 3, so how KG played then isn't how he'd play if he came into the league today.

Can Chet guard the guy in front of him and keep them from getting a good look at a 3? Can he reasonably switch onto a variety of players and provide weakside help D? Yes and hell yes IMO. On Offense, he can shoot really well from the outside and drive. I don't think he'll be the tip of the spear on a good teams attack, but it's going to be tough to contest his quality J when it's swung to him and he can dribble and drive. I think he's going to be a load in today's game

STOMP

 

[illmatic99]

The game was played outside in back in KG's day but today it's reversed. Few players have a back to the basket game let alone play on a team that features that as their mode of attack. It's about making and defending the 3, so how KG played then isn't how he'd play if he came into the league today.

Can Chet guard the guy in front of him and keep them from getting a good look at a 3? Can he reasonably switch onto a variety of players and provide weakside help D? Yes and hell yes IMO. I think he's going to be great in today's game

STOMP

lol, i don't think i can be any more in disagreement with this sentiment. i can't picture Chet having the mobility to do anything on D other than protecting the rim.

let's see how the workouts/combine/measurements turn out.

 

[STOMP]

you don't think game strategy has changed dramatically since KG played??? Good grief man, I don't know what to say other then the workouts/combine/measurements don't have anything to do with that sort of evaluation. Back to the basket is dead.

btw, for quite a few years now the top prospects usually skip the predraft

STOMP

 

[blazerkor]

lol, i don't think i can be any more in disagreement with this sentiment. i can't picture Chet having the mobility to do anything on D other than protecting the rim.

let's see how the workouts/combine/measurements turn out.

It will have to be workouts because I would almost guarantee that he doesn't do shit at the combine... except maybe basic measurements.

 

[illmatic99]

you don't think game strategy has changed dramatically since KG played??? Good grief man, I don't know what to say other then the workouts/combine/measurements don't have anything to do with that sort of evaluation. Back to the basket is dead.

btw, for quite a few years now the top prospects usually skip the predraft

STOMP

we can agree to disagree. it's why i started this thread to see how others project these guys.

i don't think i've seen any prospect more polarizing than Chat in recent history.

 

[STOMP]

Can we at least agree that the game has completely flipped since KG's day? Almost every team now features the outside shot as a primary focus. Hell, the Timberwolves are putting up 41 threes a game this season. They averaged shooting 10 a game back in KG's rookie year.

STOMP

 

[illmatic99]

Can we at least agree that the game has completely flipped since KG's day? Almost every team now features the outside shot as a primary focus. Hell, the Timberwolves are putting up 41 threes a game this season. They averaged shooting 10 a game back in KG's rookie year.

STOMP

of course the game has changed. Never disagreed with that or challenged it.

Strength is just one issue. While I think it's a concern with Chet, it obviously isn't as big a concern as it would have been a few decades ago.

Where i vehemently disagree is the notion that chet has mobility to guard quick dudes. I think modern PFs and some Cs will drive by him if he's asked to guard in space. And I'm pretty sure that's what @blazerkor was saying also.

 

[STOMP]

I couldn't tell what you were disagreeing with as you were being so sweeping with your statements. Guarding quick dudes is different if you've a 7'3 wingspan. If he plays up on a perimeter player taking away the outside shot and then they drive past him, thats part of good team D these days. Others have the drive by responsibilities. Everyone switches and rotates/not much one on one D anymore.

STOMP

 

[blazerkor]

of course the game has changed. Never disagreed with that or challenged it.

Strength is just one issue. While I think it's a concern with Chet, it obviously isn't as big a concern as it would have been a few decades ago.

Where i vehemently disagree is the notion that chet has mobility to guard quick dudes. I think modern PFs and some Cs will drive by him if he's asked to guard in space. And I'm pretty sure that's what @blazerkor was saying also.

I want to say that I hope all of the people that are seeing foot speed that I don't are right because if he can't move his feet fast enough and if he can't get stronger in a way that seems impossible, his one elite defensive skill will be as a shot blocker. He does seem to see opposing offenses well so he should be able to use his length to break up some passes too but as far as one on one defense goes, if his feet aren't a lot faster than I see them then he's fucked against guys that are faster than him in space and fucked against guys that are stronger than him in the post... so basically I think in one way or the other every player that's at a legit starting level in the league will be able to exploit Chet one on one.

Like I said, I hope that's not the case because he seems like a nice enough guy and if his feet are as quick as a lot in here are saying, he'll be incredibly fun to watch on both ends. That's just not what I've seen and I'm talking about what I've seen in multiple games against WCC fours and fives and every game against posts from big time programs.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Holmgren ceiling is Bol Bol