NBA draft "big board" top 10

[BonesJones]

Well, ya see, people were saying he was a Chet homer, and now it's been a few days of people not saying he was a Chet homer, so it's like it never happened.

It's absolutely comical that you think I come up with my opinions based on what this place thinks of them.

 

[illmatic99]

Watching Scottie Barnes create for his teammates in the playoffs made me ask who in this draft can do something like that and the only answer is Paolo. AND he can create for himself too. People get too bogged down by this Randle comp and think that that's Paolo's ceiling. Whatever.

This guy remains #1 for me.

I don't think some of you guys see the value in having a 6'10 guy who can play make.

 

[damianlillard]

Watching Scottie Barnes create for his teammates in the playoffs made me ask who in this draft can do something like that and the only answer is Paolo. AND he can create for himself too. People get too bogged down by this Randle comp and think that that's Paolo's ceiling. Whatever.

This guy remains #1 for me.

I don't think some of you guys see the value in having a 6'10 guy who can play make.

That what gave him the edge over smith and Chet for me as well. You can absolutely put the ball in his hands at the end of the game and say go do something with it. The other two not as much

 

[James lamphear]

My biggest concern about Chet can he put on the strength and weight to endure the NBA physicality and the schedule. I think he got skills to play in the NBA but with me any red flags I would pass on him. Duren to me is hit or miss type of big I would go with Williams from Duke before I pick Duren.

 

[Idog1976]

My biggest concern about Chet can he put on the strength and weight to endure the NBA physicality and the schedule. I think he got skills to play in the NBA but with me any red flags I would pass on him. Duren to me is hit or miss type of big I would go with Williams from Duke before I pick Duren.

I think Duren has a high ceiling and a fine floor. I have him as about my 3rd favorite big after Smith and Banchero. I think he has an NBA body and tons of upside. He's the opposite of Holmgren who has lots of upside but is frail to put it lightly by NBA big man standards. Williams is barely on my radar.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I'm starting to think getting a top 3 pick this year is a mixed blessing. Each one of the three has a flaw that could undo them (Smith least, but he may have the lowest ceiling). I'm almost hoping we don't move up so we can just take Sochan. For all of the Scottie Barnes fanboying going on, he's got a lot of similarities.

 

[Boise Blazer]

I see the concern that people have with Duren and I have nothing but my gut to fall back on. I just have a feeling that he will be the player that teams regret passing on in a year or two. He is raw and young but even at that he will impact games.

 

[blazerkor]

In three weeks we'll actually know which pick we have. Pretty Damn Exciting!!!

 

[Idog1976]

I see the concern that people have with Duren and I have nothing but my gut to fall back on. I just have a feeling that he will be the player that teams regret passing on in a year or two. He is raw and young but even at that he will impact games.

I absolutely agree. I only have Banchero and Smith ahead of him among bigs. I also have Ivey and Sharpe ahead of him from a pure talent standpoint. If the Blazers got 4th pick I'd really struggle to take Sharpe or Ivey especially over him and might just pull the trigger and draft Duren. He has an IT factor that I can't shake just like you. When I thought we'd have the Pels pick I was all about taking him if he was still on the board.

 

[wizenheimer]

I see the concern that people have with Duren and I have nothing but my gut to fall back on. .

when I fall on my gut I don't fall back

 

[PCmor7]

when I fall on my gut I don't fall back

Ah, the joys of genetic mutation.

 

[BonesJones]

My biggest concern about Chet can he put on the strength and weight to endure the NBA physicality and the schedule. I think he got skills to play in the NBA but with me any red flags I would pass on him. Duren to me is hit or miss type of big I would go with Williams from Duke before I pick Duren.

Every prospect has red flags. Putting on muscle is easier to fix than pretty much any other red flag at the top of the draft.

 

[BonesJones]

Watching Scottie Barnes create for his teammates in the playoffs made me ask who in this draft can do something like that and the only answer is Paolo. AND he can create for himself too. People get too bogged down by this Randle comp and think that that's Paolo's ceiling. Whatever.

This guy remains #1 for me.

I don't think some of you guys see the value in having a 6'10 guy who can play make.

Banchero doesn't have the same PG skills as Scottie to me. Banchero is less athletic and bulkier. He could be Julius Randle for all we know and not be a good enough #1 but also be a bad fit as a supplementary piece. There's downside. Both Jabari and Chet are better shooters and defenders so they're a little safer to me. But Paolo could still be the best player from this draft.

 

[PCmor7]

Every prospect has red flags. Putting on muscle is easier to fix than pretty much any other red flag at the top of the draft.

Seriously, what is your connection to this kid? You've bent yourself over backwards time and time again to act like there is nothing he can't do and no reason to be skeptical of him. This whole line of putting on muscle being easier than other red flags is both preposterous and bizarre.

 

[damianlillard]

Banchero doesn't have the same PG skills as Scottie to me. Banchero is less athletic and bulkier. He could be Julius Randle for all we know and not be a good enough #1 but also be a bad fit as a supplementary piece. There's downside. Both Jabari and Chet are better shooters and defenders so they're a little safer to me. But Paolo could still be the best player from this draft.

I think banchero might be a safer pick actually. His ability to make plays with the ball in his hands is better than those guys. He can always lose weight to be a little quicker, like what Watford did coming into the league. If he does that, he should be fine defensively. It will be interesting to see how he fit team wise because you’re right, guys like randle and griffin are weird to build around

 

[Idog1976]

I think banchero might be a safer pick actually. His ability to make plays with the ball in his hands is better than those guys. He can always lose weight to be a little quicker, like what Watford did coming into the league. If he does that, he should be fine defensively. It will be interesting to see how he fit team wise because you’re right, guys like randle and griffin are weird to build around

You have Banchero over Jabari? Those are my top two as well, but I have Jabari Smith #1 overall and I'm pretty sure he will be an excellent player in the league. He has all the tools to become an elite modern PF which just so happens to be exactly what we need. Even if Banchero has intangibles and BBIQ/Passing that are superior, Jabari Smith has insane athleticism and better shooting. What I can't believe is how Holmgren is in this conversation for #1 overall, that's just nuts to me. Maybe I will end up being wrong, but I would be absolutely shocked if he's better than those two and maybe even Duren. I just value strength and athleticism extremely highly, especially in a PF add in better shooting and I just can't put Banchero over Jabari, but I'd be thrilled to get either. I'd even be fairly happy with Duren at 6 and same with Holmgren if he fell that far I think I would very likely take him, just I don't think over even Duren. If those three bigs are gone and Holmgren is till on the board I take the risk and draft him over any smaller player not named Ivey or Sharpe. I guess I'd also have to think about Keegan Murray & Mathurin, I just really want to fill in a PF if at all possible. That's another reason I'm not super fond of drafting Holmgren. I don't think you can play him at PF, but maybe you could. That would be a crazy long frontcourt of Nurk and Holmgren, but would it work with Holmgren's shooting providing spacing?

 

[AldoTrapani]

Seriously, what is your connection to this kid? You've bent yourself over backwards time and time again to act like there is nothing he can't do and no reason to be skeptical of him. This whole line of putting on muscle being easier than other red flags is both preposterous and bizarre.

Gonzaga Homer

 

[blazerkor]

You have Banchero over Jabari? Those are my top two as well, but I have Jabari Smith #1 overall and I'm pretty sure he will be an excellent player in the league. He has all the tools to become an elite modern PF which just so happens to be exactly what we need. Even if Banchero has intangibles and BBIQ/Passing that are superior, Jabari Smith has insane athleticism and better shooting. What I can't believe is how Holmgren is in this conversation for #1 overall, that's just nuts to me. Maybe I will end up being wrong, but I would be absolutely shocked if he's better than those two and maybe even Duren. I just value strength and athleticism extremely highly, especially in a PF add in better shooting and I just can't put Banchero over Jabari, but I'd be thrilled to get either. I'd even be fairly happy with Duren at 6 and same with Holmgren if he fell that far I think I would very likely take him, just I don't think over even Duren. If those three bigs are gone and Holmgren is till on the board I take the risk and draft him over any smaller player not named Ivey or Sharpe. I guess I'd also have to think about Keegan Murray & Mathurin, I just really want to fill in a PF if at all possible. That's another reason I'm not super fond of drafting Holmgren. I don't think you can play him at PF, but maybe you could. That would be a crazy long frontcourt of Nurk and Holmgren, but would it work with Holmgren's shooting providing spacing?

If Sharpe goes to the combine and absolutely owns the scrimmages and is off the charts on the drills and then has some workouts with top teams that have the league buzzing, he could pass them all. There is no consensus number one this year. People are worried about a few things with Chet none of which are his skills. People are worried about Paolo's defense and I would say that the reason why it's so scary is that I don't think it's due to any lack of quickness, I think it's all concentration and motor and it was never Melo's lack of athleticism or ability, it was always his want to. Jabari is solid, the dude has a high motor on both ends, he's going to be a big time shooter, a big time slasher (right now without the ball or with a wide open lane), he defends his position and is a solid help defender already and he's possibly the best shooter in the draft but he doesn't put the ball on the floor well yet and projects out as an all star but not all nba player or mvp. I think Ivey will start to generate even more interest because he's like a bigger Ja who is just as aggressive on O and D as Ja is on O, which is fucking frightening. I honestly think that we could see any of these guys go anywhere one through five.

I think the way it stands it seems like it's between Jabari and Chet but a lot is going to happen between now and the draft.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[Rastapopoulos]

This whole line of putting on muscle being easier than other red flags is both preposterous and bizarre.

?? That's a bit strong. I remember when people made a fuss that Kevin Durant literally couldn't do ONE bench press.
Also, I'm not convinced Holmgren needs to TRY to put on muscle. He's going to bulk up naturally with the weight training every NBA player does. He'll get pushed around in the post by giants, but so little of the modern NBA is big solid guys banging in the post (and teams switch so much anyway - I saw SloMo guarding KAT last night) that it won't make much difference. If the worry is that being spindly makes him injury-prone, I don't know that that's true. They made Rik Smits put on weight for the early years of his career and he was much more injury-prone with the extra weight than when they let him stay skinny and he had his best years with Larry Brown (and memorable matchups against Shaquille Fucking O'Neal).

Remember: Andrei Kirilenko was 6'9" but weighed just 200lbs when he was drafted.

 

[Hoopguru]

Going to be nice to have Chauncey in the work outs also having a big say in who we draft.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Likes the floater even more than Trendon Watford:

 

[illmatic99]

Seriously, what is your connection to this kid? You've bent yourself over backwards time and time again to act like there is nothing he can't do and no reason to be skeptical of him. This whole line of putting on muscle being easier than other red flags is both preposterous and bizarre.

why does every draft thread get derailed by Chet stans? This was a thread on the top 10. Not just Chet.

The parallels between this crap and the Draft the Stache bullshit in 2006 are uncanny.

 

[wizenheimer]

?? That's a bit strong. I remember when people made a fuss that Kevin Durant literally couldn't do ONE bench press.
Also, I'm not convinced Holmgren needs to TRY to put on muscle. He's going to bulk up naturally with the weight training every NBA player does. He'll get pushed around in the post by giants, but so little of the modern NBA is big solid guys banging in the post (and teams switch so much anyway - I saw SloMo guarding KAT last night) that it won't make much difference. If the worry is that being spindly makes him injury-prone, I don't know that that's true. They made Rik Smits put on weight for the early years of his career and he was much more injury-prone with the extra weight than when they let him stay skinny and he had his best years with Larry Brown (and memorable matchups against Shaquille Fucking O'Neal).

Remember: Andrei Kirilenko was 6'9" but weighed just 200lbs when he was drafted.

AK47 was drafted at 18 and didn't play in the NBA until the 3rd year after he was drafted. He was also an all-star level wing. Durant is an MVP level wing. They both had, right at the beginning of their careers, mobility and speed that Holmgren doesn't have. There is no fucking way at all that Holmgren can defend NBA SF's on the perimeter. It's very unlikely he can defend stretch-4's like Giannis and Durant and Kawhi and Tatum on the perimeter. He will very likely get stronger but he isn't going to get faster

he's going to have to be a situational PF and a situational C. Be a PF against more traditional PF's; and a C against more modern C's who don't use mass as a weapon. Guys like Nurkic, Adams, Drummond, and Valuciunas will eat Holmgren up in the paint.

that's not to say he can't carve out a niche for himself in the NBA and become a star. But the path for that is very narrow. We've already seen the problems with another unicorn in Porzingis; and the issues with Gobert. The list of elite PF's is two names long: Giannis and AD. And C's might only be two names long as well: Embiid & Jokic. Now, Holmgren might be able to be something like KAT or Christian Wood on offense. But until he gets much stronger (how long will that take...5 years?) I think his defensive impact is going to be very inconsistent

He'd be a giant risk for Portland to invest their first top-8 pick on since Dame

 

[PCmor7]

?? That's a bit strong. I remember when people made a fuss that Kevin Durant literally couldn't do ONE bench press.
Also, I'm not convinced Holmgren needs to TRY to put on muscle. He's going to bulk up naturally with the weight training every NBA player does. He'll get pushed around in the post by giants, but so little of the modern NBA is big solid guys banging in the post (and teams switch so much anyway - I saw SloMo guarding KAT last night) that it won't make much difference. If the worry is that being spindly makes him injury-prone, I don't know that that's true. They made Rik Smits put on weight for the early years of his career and he was much more injury-prone with the extra weight than when they let him stay skinny and he had his best years with Larry Brown (and memorable matchups against Shaquille Fucking O'Neal).

Remember: Andrei Kirilenko was 6'9" but weighed just 200lbs when he was drafted.

I'm not sure the point you're trying to make. Kirilenko was a good player, but not someone you'd be weighing in the mix for the No. 1 pick. If that's what we're using as an analogy for Holmgren, then those pushing for him already have lost.

Also, I found some pre-draft profiles for him that listed him at 210. Three inches shorter than Holmgren and already 15 pounds heavier. He eventually put on like 25 pounds.

Or is the comparison Durant? Because his game was entirely different. Durant was a point-scoring machine and his ability to muscle in the post wasn't intrinsic to what he was going to have to do to be successful in the NBA. That said, he, again, was 25 pounds heavier than Chet when he was coming into the league and 3 inches shorter, so I don't think you're making the point you are trying to make.

Gaining and losing weight for people isn't easy, even athletes, even guys with great training, otherwise everyone would do it. Zion was going to have problems because he is so bulky for basketball. Guess what? He hasn't been able to or hasn't worked hard enough to reshape himself and his game has suffered as a result because he can't stay healthy.

Chet Holmgren has a very narrow frame. He's not 18. He's a couple of days from turning 20. He might be able to put on weight. Can he put on weight and keep the quick reactions that people touting him point toward as being what makes him a special defender? Can he put weight on that frame without his bones and ligaments and tendons breaking and tearing from the strain? Can he put on good weight at all?

I just think it's extremely overly optimistic and out of line with reality to assume that a guy can completely reshape that body and retain what makes him good now, just take for granted he can do that and brush aside the skepticism when the examples of athletes who've been able to do that are so small.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I'm not sure the point you're trying to make. Kirilenko was a good player, but not someone you'd be weighing in the mix for the No. 1 pick. If that's what we're using as an analogy for Holmgren, then those pushing for him already have lost.

Sigh. He's a defensive ace who had a long productive career and wasn't particularly injury-prone, despite being rail-thin. I'm not saying they're fucking twins.

Besides, depending on the year, Kirilenko absolutely deserved to go #1. He was given a bit of a backseat to Boozer and Deron, but he also led Russia to the Euro Championship over a STACKED Spain squad.

How about: "taller Kirilenko with a jump shot" - is he worth "weighing in the mix" yet?

Also, I found some pre-draft profiles for him that listed him at 210. Three inches shorter than Holmgren and already 15 pounds heavier. He eventually put on like 25 pounds.

Which?

And he put on weight over the course of his career!? Wow, if only Holmgren wasn't a genetic freak that we know will never do that.

 

[PCmor7]

Sigh. He's a defensive ace who had a long productive career and wasn't particularly injury-prone, despite being rail-thin. I'm not saying they're fucking twins.

Besides, depending on the year, Kirilenko absolutely deserved to go #1. He was given a bit of a backseat to Boozer and Deron, but he also led Russia to the Euro Championship over a STACKED Spain squad.

How about: "taller Kirilenko with a jump shot" - is he worth "weighing in the mix" yet?


Which?

And he put on weight over the course of his career!? Wow, if only Holmgren wasn't a genetic freak that we know will never do that.

Sigh, right back at you.

https://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andrei-Kirilenko-3171/

There are others that had him less than 210 but more than 200. Of course, it's a bit of a moot point. It looks like you were exaggerating an individual player who doesn't have a heck of a lot in common with Holmgren. It's a conflation, but, hey, if that blows your skirt up, whatever.

Kirilenko was an NBA all-star once. He was all-defenive team three times. Again, if that's your baseline for an elite NBA talent, then I'd love to play against your teams.

We're talking about this draft, BTW, not any random draft in which Kirilenko might have been worthy of the No. 1 pick ... and there might have been like four that fits over the past 50 years.

Also, continuing your trend of conflating and exaggerating, nowhere did I say Holmgren shouldn't be "in the mix." We're talking about his ability to put good weight on his body and whether or not that's a reason for skepticism. The "taller Kirilenko with a jump shot" has nothing to do with that, not even taking into account it's a meaningless buzzphrase about two players that have very little in common and is, again, assuming a lot about what Holmgren's game is going to be. There's no real reason to casually accept the notion that Holmgren is going to be a great jump-shooter in the NBA.

 

[PCmor7]

And he put on weight over the course of his career!? Wow, if only Holmgren wasn't a genetic freak that we know will never do that.

I already addressed this in the post you're responding to. I'll refer you to that so I don't have to repeat my proactive reply to nonsense.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Chet Holmgren has a very narrow frame. He's not 18. He's a couple of days from turning 20. He might be able to put on weight. Can he put on weight and keep the quick reactions that people touting him point toward as being what makes him a special defender? Can he put weight on that frame without his bones and ligaments and tendons breaking and tearing from the strain? Can he put on good weight at all?

I just think it's extremely overly optimistic and out of line with reality to assume that a guy can completely reshape that body and retain what makes him good now, just take for granted he can do that and brush aside the skepticism when the examples of athletes who've been able to do that are so small.

He will put on weight naturally as he gets older. How much is the question? My guess is 220-230. So essentially Hassan Whitehead sizewise.
Until that happens I see no reason why he can't be a spread 4. Make the other teams match up with him on the perimeter.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

AK47 was drafted at 18 and didn't play in the NBA until the 3rd year after he was drafted. He was also an all-star level wing. Durant is an MVP level wing. They both had, right at the beginning of their careers, mobility and speed that Holmgren doesn't have. There is no fucking way at all that Holmgren can defend NBA SF's on the perimeter. It's very unlikely he can defend stretch-4's like Giannis and Durant and Kawhi and Tatum on the perimeter. He will very likely get stronger but he isn't going to get faster

he's going to have to be a situational PF and a situational C. Be a PF against more traditional PF's; and a C against more modern C's who don't use mass as a weapon. Guys like Nurkic, Adams, Drummond, and Valuciunas will eat Holmgren up in the paint.

that's not to say he can't carve out a niche for himself in the NBA and become a star. But the path for that is very narrow. We've already seen the problems with another unicorn in Porzingis; and the issues with Gobert. The list of elite PF's is two names long: Giannis and AD. And C's might only be two names long as well: Embiid & Jokic. Now, Holmgren might be able to be something like KAT or Christian Wood on offense. But until he gets much stronger (how long will that take...5 years?) I think his defensive impact is going to be very inconsistent

I get that people look at Holmgren and think "ick". He's certainly not going to sell any jerseys. He looks pretty ridiculous. And of course he's a risk. But is he talented? Absolutely. Does he have a great basketball brain? No question. Is he better suited to the modern NBA than big, plodding classic centers? Yes.

He'd be a giant risk for Portland to invest their first top-8 pick on since Dame

It would have to be top 3 because he'll be gone by then. So chances are we won't the opportunity to take that risk. I look forward to a non-stop series of posts of his haters gloating about his anemic stats as he inevitably struggles to adapt to the NBA in his first year.