STATE OF THE FRANCHISE
The Nets are officially building for 2010. With the upcoming move to Brooklyn coinciding with LeBron James' free agency in 2010, the Nets began clearing cap room toward the end of the 2008 season. By moving Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson, the Nets got younger and more importantly below the salary cap to make a run at free agents in 2010.
But Nets fans do have hope for the immediate future. Whether you think Brook Lopez is the real deal or not, its undisputed that the Nets got great value from both their picks Lopez and Chris Douglas-Roberts. By moving Marcus Williams and Richard Jefferson, minutes have opened up for guys such as Keyon Dooling, Devin Harris, and Yi Jianlian. While this probably doesn't translate to a playoff berth, there are a lot of good young sleepers on the Nets roster that could perform well enough to make your fantasy team.
PLAYING TIME DISTRIBUTION
Besides a sprained ankle that shelved him for five games last year, Vince Carter had a healthy 2008. Many probably never imagined it could happen, but Carter has had three full seasons of 76 games played or more. That's the best stretch of his entire career and New Jersey will be leaning on him even more in 2008-09. As the clear go-to-player on this squad, Carter will play between 38 and 40 minutes next season at the least.
After Mr. Carter, Devin Harris is the next most-established player with a clear path to starter's minutes between 36 and 38 minutes a game. Harris has never put it together for a full season, but he's also had to fend off Jason Terry for most of his career. Keyon Dooling will back up at both point guard and shooting guard, but there's no doubt this is Harris' job. Dooling should get more than the 18 minutes he got last year with the Magic, where he was slightly under-used in a very weak Magic backcourt, but don't get your hopes up for fantasy stardom. Dooling is a great energy player, but doesn't perform exceptionally in any one category.
The Nets frontcourt is a mish-mash of young, long, athletic big men who need minutes. Fantasy players would love to see Sean Williams get more minutes since he has the most potential as a shot blocker, but he's a very weak on the ball defender and fell out of the rotation toward the end of last year. Josh Boone averaged nearly a double-double in January and should begin the year as the starter at center, but look for Lopez to push him for minutes and create a near even split. Both should average around 18 to 19 minutes a game depending on match ups since they have very different styles.
As the main player received in exchange for fan favorite Richard Jefferson, Yi Jianlian will be given every opportunity to succeed and vindicate the front office's decision. Yi started off 2007-08 very strong last year, but faded around the all-star break. This is common for rookies and especially international players so expect Yi to come back energized and ready for the long haul. He was out-played by Villanueva at the end of last year, but he's out of Milwaukee and in an environment where he's more comfortable. He has little competition from Eduardo Najera and Yi should get 26 to 28 minutes a game next year. Lastly, look for Chris Douglas-Roberts to push Bobby Simmons for minutes and take over by mid-season. Simmons has been plagued by injuries recently and has really had only one good season in 04-05. It would be great for fantasy players if Jarvis Hayes could overtake Simmons for the lion's share of back up minutes because he's a 37% 3-pt shooter and could really help teams if he gets 20 to 22 minutes a game.
Sleeper:
Chris Douglas-Roberts: This was a close call between Yi and CDR, but most owners are on to Yi and Douglas-Roberts is the deeper sleeper. He is NBA ready and is worth stashing on your roster. We'll see if his improved 3-point shooting carries over to the NBA, but if it does, he provides scoring, steals, threes, and average rebounding. The knock on him in college was unorthodox mechanics and a seeming lack of fire, but he's been very motivated after slipping out of the 1st round and will have plenty of opportunity with the Nets since Bobby Simmons is not the long term answer.
Bust:
Devin Harris: Don't get me wrong, he's definitely a starter on your fantasy team, but he is a prime candidate to be overvalued due to his new starting gig. Fantasy owners frequently over value players who walk into starting roles and people have always liked Harris as a break-out candidate, but his main value came from field goal percentage with the Mavericks. He'll get you 6 to 7 assists and almost 1.5 steals per game along with 16 to 18 points at most, but don't expect him to shoot 45%. Great value in rounds 7 to 8, but he's not a 5th or 6th round point guard, where, traditionally, you've been able to get a Tony Parker, Kirk Hinrich, or rookie gamble such as Chris Paul his first year. Harris will settle in and become a slightly more effective Raymond Felton who scores about 15 a game and dishes 6 to 7, but shoots 43%.
