My Odds I Give Each Upset Based On Seeds
8/9 & 7/10 - Coin Flip
6/11 - 65%/35% (~2/4 Upsets)
5/12 - 70%/30% (~2/4 Upsets)
4/13 - 77%/22% (~1/4 Upsets)
3/14 - 83%/17% (~1/4 Upsets)
2/15 - 91%/9%
1/16 - 99%/1%
I pick accordingly. Those Odds are probably close to what it actually is. That's why I don't like when people pick straight up chalk with their biggest upset being one 10 over 7 pick. If you pick chalk, then you're giving no effort into getting your bracket 100% correct, you're just taking the easy way out to try to win your pool. Plus, the Cinderella you picked is a lot of fun to root for.
That's just my opinion.