Neal Olshey - Trade v Free Agency

[South East]

Right now the Blazers sit in a great position to improve the roster in the next 6 months. There are three major times when teams make moves to improve their team or to shake things up. The first of those three is less then 36 hrs away with the trade deadline and Portland has to start making decisions.

Right now the Blazers have assets to make some moves.
Approx 21 million in cap room
Young players on good contacts
Allen Crabbe
Meyers Leonard
Mason Plumlee
Noah Vonleh
Vets with expiring contracts that can still help a team
Gerald Henderson
Chris Kaman

The next opportunity to improve the team is the draft. The Blazers will still have assets with cap room but will lose the following assets to make the team better. (They can resign all of these players come free agency but they can't trade any of them)

Crabbe
Leonard
Henderson
Kaman

The third opportunity is free agency. Olshey has done a great job the last 3 years in bringing in value pieces to help the team. From Mo Williams to Chris Kaman to Aminu. These players all have 1 thing in common...they were/are great value. Olshey hasn't had a bad signing yet as the GM of the Blazers. When you dig a little deeper though there is a glaring hole with Olshey's tenure as GM, the ability to identify and close on a big name free agent.

Olshey has gone hard after three big money free agents in his time with Portland. Roy Hibbert, Greg Monroe, and Enes Kanter. All 3 of those players signed huge contracts that Neal offered the same or similar contracts. Hibbert had 1 good season then fell off the map and now plays for the Lakers and his only value is as an expiring contract. Milwaukie is looking to get out from under Monroe's contract half a season in and OKC is not getting much from Kanter.

I don't think anyone can doubt Olshey's talent evaluation with how he remade the team twice to make it better then anyone was willing to give the team credit for. This summer there will be a record amount of free agent money to spend league wide with more max contract money then worthy players. There are going to be a lot of large contracts paid this summer for marginal talent. Will the Blazers be able to get any value with free agents? Will teams need to trade anything this summer since the cap is going to go up?

 

[Draco]

I like how you broke down the players and thought about team building strategy. I'll just add a few ideas.

Why do teams even do trades? I think it comes down to three main reasons;
A. The team feels there is an immediate value gain; a dumb trading partner
B. Mutually beneficial where one team is acquiring short term and another long term
C. A player with duplicate skills is traded for one with needed skills. This can be a mutual gain for both teams. It can also be loss of talent for one team and gain for another.

Regarding our players; I think Kaman is irrelevant, other teams don't want to acquire him. Dame and CJ aren't available. So the players we have left are:

Aminu and Ed Davis signed to value contracts
Plumlee and Vonleh on cheap rookie deals going into next season

Then 4 pending free agents;
Harkless, little value around the league, likely much more interesting to keep
Meyers, has value as an shooting big but how much will other teams give up when they can just sign him in a few months?
Crabbe, probably the most value of the three, but as such may get an insane offer in free agency and again teams can just offer him that deal themselves.
Hendo, more value to a team trying to win now as a rental and less value for the future as he will be an unrestricted free agent.

The value other teams will have in acquiring one of those 4 players now as opposed to offering them a deal in the summer is:
1. Get them in their own system and evaluate their fit.
2. If they want to use cap space elsewhere first then sign with bird rights when they are over the cap.
3. Especially for Hendo but maybe for others; if they want the player to immediately compete in the playoffs

 

[Draco]

I think many of us fans also overestimate how often the team needs to make correct decisions in order to succeed. Neil signed a few questionable restricted free agents as you highlighted over the years. Obviously we didn't anticipate LaMarcus would leave, Neil at the least shoulders some level of blame for that. We ended up losing 3 multi-year starters for nothing in free agency. The Afflalo trade was a disaster. We gave away Will Barton. We guaranteed $4 million of Chris Kaman's contract.

All of those mistakes were in the last calendar year; and the team is still much further ahead of the rebuild than most expected. The team has a very bright future. Building a contending team isn't some elaborate craps bet where a half dozen wagers all have to hit at once.

It's a consistent process where you make more good choices than bad. There have been multiple bad moves before and there will be multiple bad moves made again. But hit a few good decisions; try to minimize your losses on the bad and we might be fighting for the Western Conference Finals sooner than everyone expects.

 

[blue9]

Given the three ways in which we can improve our team, how would you rank Olshey in each aspect?

Personally, I think he's obviously best in the Draft.

If we're just looking at his Portland tenure I have a hard time ranking either Free Agency or trades next - both have been fairly disappointing. The Robin Lopez trade (pretty sure it was a trade?) was pretty good, and getting Harkless for a 2nd rounder looks decent, too. However, the Afflalo trade was awful. And we don't yet know if the Nic trade will turn out in our favor...or what we could have gotten for him had we waited a bit longer. Definitely a mixed bag.

But his signings have been mediocre, too. Arguably Mo Williams was his best (Portland) signing, with Ed Davis and Aminu in 2nd and 3rd place (no starter-quality signings). And with his attempts at Hibbert, Hawes, and Kanter we must feel relieved at his failure. As I write this it's becoming clear to me that Free Agency is his biggest area of weakness.

Given this I really hope he doesn't feel like he has to sign any MAX Free Agents this summer. We'd be far better off with additional value signings, than hamstringing ourselves with a horrible contract. In 2-3 years there are going to be A LOT of teams with players on horrible contracts, and they're going to be looking to dump them. Let's not be one of those teams. Instead, we can be a team that can take a bad contract back in a trade that nets us something worthwhile.

I trust Olshey in the draft, but I do have concerns about his ability to identify Free Agents and trade targets.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

1) They can trade for a starter (unlikely, but we can dream)
2) They can trade for a rotation player (We have too many "good" players already, and shuffling the deck could hurt chemistry)
3) We could trade for draft picks/minor players who wouldn't mind not playing.

The last of the 3 is by far the most likely, especially when you're a facilitator.

By getting a draft pick, we put off further building the team, which is probably a good thing when we have so few vets.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I wonder how good our two young rookies from last year are. There is a good chance that any 19-20 year old draft pick we get this year will need time time to develop before they can effectively contribute. How many PF/C's out there in the draft are better than Cliff Alexander? Like many of the current lottery picks he was highly rated going into college and inconsistent in the few games games he played.

Only a limited amount of roster spots for additional rookies. Of course both Alexander and Montero could suck as well. I have no idea at this point. I assume that Neil has a good idea.

 

[illmatic99]

Look at what SVG just did. Traded for a solid piece in Harris now instead of bidding for a similar player with 25 other teams in FA this summer.

I hope Neil doesn't rely much of FA this summer. We aren't getting a starter there.

 

[South East]

Olshey has proven to have a couple of really good talents. Making trades, value signings, good draft picks, and team chemistry.

Weaknesses signing a big FA, knowing when to sell high, and getting value for his own FA.

 

[Natebishop3]

Look at what SVG just did. Traded for a solid piece in Harris now instead of bidding for a similar player with 25 other teams in FA this summer.

I hope Neil doesn't rely much of FA this summer. We aren't getting a starter there.

We might be able to get a starter, but we will have to overpay for them.

 

[Chris Craig]

I hearing rumors about Larry Sanders signing with the Blazers again...in the long shot that was going to happen Wed have to trade a big man away...

 

[Pinwheel1]

Look at what SVG just did. Traded for a solid piece in Harris now instead of bidding for a similar player with 25 other teams in FA this summer.

I hope Neil doesn't rely much of FA this summer. We aren't getting a starter there.

Yeah but "solid pieces" are not that hard to get. Neil was able to get solid pieces last year. What we need is one more borderline star.
Someone like Harris is not our missing piece. But I agree with not relying on this years crop of FA's. Other than over paying on Harrison Barnes and hoping he explodes with us.

I was reading an article this morning on the Warriors and how Kerr had no idea how good Draymond Green was. Was not sure if he was a little good at everything or a master of none. Then David Lee got hurt and the rest is history. We need that type of luck in the 2nd round or with a young FA signing.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think the rich will get richer this summer and teams from small markets, without a lot of sex appeal, caché or obvious path to playoff success are going to be left with a lot of cash to spend on nobody worth spending it on. Some poorly run teams are going to be wasting a lot of money and bit pieces and roleplayers and getting horrible returns on their investment.

So whether or not it's Neil's fault he hasn't lured a big-time free agent (I don't think so, it's just the reality of Portland as a destination) this will not be the year for trying to hit on a free agent that is expected to do anything other than fill out the bench. If Neil wants to get an impact player it has to be by tomorrow or via the draft.

By the middle of July I fully expect a ton of posts around here expressing disbelief at the way some stars teamed up (Durant to GS?) and how shocking some of the contracts turned out (Leonar_ getting near max or max money seems possible). It's gonna be stupid ... interesting, but stupid.

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

Right now the Blazers sit in a great position to improve the roster in the next 6 months. There are three major times when teams make moves to improve their team or to shake things up. The first of those three is less then 36 hrs away with the trade deadline and Portland has to start making decisions.

The next opportunity to improve the team is the draft. The Blazers will still have assets with cap room but will lose the following assets to make the team better.

The third opportunity is free agency. Olshey has done a great job the last 3 years in bringing in value pieces to help the team. From Mo Williams to Chris Kaman to Aminu. These players all have 1 thing in common...they were/are great value. Olshey hasn't had a bad signing yet as the GM of the Blazers. When you dig a little deeper though there is a glaring hole with Olshey's tenure as GM, the ability to identify and close on a big name free agent.

Olshey has gone hard after three big money free agents in his time with Portland. Roy Hibbert, Greg Monroe, and Enes Kanter. All 3 of those players signed huge contracts that Neal offered the same or similar contracts. Hibbert had 1 good season then fell off the map and now plays for the Lakers and his only value is as an expiring contract. Milwaukie is looking to get out from under Monroe's contract half a season in and OKC is not getting much from Kanter.

I don't think anyone can doubt Olshey's talent evaluation with how he remade the team twice to make it better then anyone was willing to give the team credit for. This summer there will be a record amount of free agent money to spend league wide with more max contract money then worthy players. There are going to be a lot of large contracts paid this summer for marginal talent. Will the Blazers be able to get any value with free agents? Will teams need to trade anything this summer since the cap is going to go up?

Draft is by far the best example of expertise by Olshey so far. But, we might not have much in way of draft pick this year. Conditional on staying out of playoffs, otherwise, goes to Denver in Afflalo trade (that keeps taking!!).

I don't expect much more than a shuffling of the deck chairs at best at this trade deadline. We don't have enough good assets to make an impactful deal for a starting level player. I hope we see one or more of our expiring contracts (Leonard, Crabbe, Henderson, Frazier or Kaman) combined for a better returning player. Highly un-likely.

Free Agency 2016 - I'm hoping for Barnes, Ryan Anderson, Drummond or Montiejunas. Long shots all.

The next significant move will be very interesting. Olshey has many choices where to attack, but what will he do? I don't expect that he'll use Lillard or McCollum as trade bait. I think he wants to build around those guys. If so, we need a shot blocker maybe like Sanders for the C to clog / protect the middle.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Tom Penn just said on @espn730 that Nic Batum will be offered a full max first day of free-agency.

 

[tester551]

Tom Penn just said on @espn730 that Nic Batum will be offered a full max first day of free-agency.

Yep. Not a surprise at all.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Yep. Not a surprise at all.

Shit what will Aminu want?!

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Tom Penn just said on @espn730 that Nic Batum will be offered a full max first day of free-agency.

Kind of the going rate with anyone with a pulse. Sad state of affairs the NBA right now.

 

[TBpup]

Tom Penn just said on @espn730 that Nic Batum will be offered a full max first day of free-agency.

He's worth it if he shows up consistently. It was a very easy call that he would have a good season this year right before a new contract. It's what he does after a new contract that is the concern. Wildly inconsistent in his time here even though he had a ton of talent.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Kind of the going rate with anyone with a pulse. Sad state of affairs the NBA right now.

It will be hard to ignore but as fans we just have to. It would be nice if they used the extra TV money to lower ticket prices, but they won't so we might as well learn to accept that if a player is one of the top 300 best BB players in the world, (Even it they can't shoot a free throw) then they are guaranteed to make a shit load of money. No reason to give more to the Billionaires.

10 mil per for role players
20 mil per for good players
30 mil per for great players
40 mil per for 10 year great players

 

[riverman]

Shit what will Aminu want?!

Aminu already has a contract with us

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

It will be hard to ignore but as fans we just have to. It would be nice if they used the extra TV money to lower ticket prices, but they won't so we might as well learn to accept that if a player is one of the top 300 best BB players in the world, (Even it they can't shoot a free throw) then they are guaranteed to make a shit load of money. No reason to give more to the Billionaires.

10 mil per for role players
20 mil per for good players
30 mil per for great players
40 mil per for 10 year great players

I hope we see more unguaranteed contracts