New Pew Research Poll Shows Romney Lead

[ABM]

A thread of futility, as none of this has any effect on who wins the election.

This is the only count that counts:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map#

Good point:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/...ad-electoral-math-still-favors-182101267.html

 

[MARIS61]

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

Change over the last week:

http://data.predictwise.com/predict/generate_chart.php

 

[PapaG]

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

Change over the last week:

http://data.predictwise.com/predict/generate_chart.php

It's hard keeping up with your links.

Obama is a shoe-in, according to the polls.

 

[Denny Crane]

Romney definitely has a narrow path to win the electoral vote.

That said, I think if he wins Ohio, he'll win the electoral college.

I've been looking at the electoral college projections for months now. Maris' post is one that has Obama at 275, Romney at 206. It has Ohio for Obama by 2 points (within the MOE, and likely understating republican voters). If Romney ends up winning Ohio, 275-18 = 257 (Obama's likely votes) to Romney's 224.

I think Romney is going to take Virginia, Florida, and Colorado. As Maxiep pointed out, Suffolk is the first polling firm to concede VA and FLA to Romney. 3 of the last 5 polls in Colorado favor Romney, and by +3 or more.

Add VA and FLA to Romney's 224 and you get 266 Electoral Votes. He'd need one state (like Colorado) to put him over the top.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

everyone who is depressed should just buy a horse!

 

[MARIS61]

Romney offends mother of hero, then lies some more:

The mother of Glen Doherty, a Navy SEAL who was one of four Americans killed in the Sept. 11 attack in Libya, told a Boston TV station that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney shouldn't politicize her son's death.

Romney told an Iowa campaign audience on Tuesday about a chance encounter with a Navy SEAL during a Christmas party in San Diego, although he did not invoke Doherty by name. Romney owns a home in California and Doherty was stationed there, serving in the military. Romney cited the SEAL's dedication to the Middle East and his commitment to foreign service as a way to draw a contrast with President Barack Obama's response in the region, which Romney has criticized as lacking in leadership. As Yahoo News's Holly Bailey reported:

Citing a CNN report that Doherty had been killed while trying to help others at the consulate, Romney expressed his admiration—and likened it to the leadership he says the country needs now in Washington.

"When he and his colleagues there heard that the consulate was under attack ... they went there. They didn't hunker down where they were in safety. They rushed there to go help," Romney said. "This is the American way: We go where there's trouble. We go where we're needed. And right now we're needed. Right now the American people need us."

After Romney's remarks, Barbara Doherty told Boston's WHDH 7News that the GOP nominee shouldn't invoke her son that way again.

"I don't trust Romney," she said. "He shouldn't make my son's death part of his political agenda. It's wrong to use these brave young men, who wanted freedom for all, to degrade Obama."

Romney has amplified his criticisms of Obama's foreign policy and defense record with a speech on Monday that fact-checkers and the Obama campaign said was rife with errors and policy reversals.

 

[Denny Crane]

The realtor lies about Romney lying.

Interesting.

 

[MARIS61]

everyone who is depressed should just buy a horse!

And a stable of Cadillacs!

 

[MARIS61]

The realtor lies about Romney lying.

No, as the quote states, fact checkers accused him of lying.

The fact that he's a pathological liar should be apparent to anyone who has followed his statements over the years on just about anything. If he's spoken about it, chances are very good he's lied about it. Can't seem to help himself. He's the Jon Lovitz of politics.

That he said this about Glen Doherty, using "we" to lump himself in as if he was a hero also, is another lie. Especially when you consider these lies:

But Romney’s shifting stories on his Vietnam status could have real political consequences, as an Associated Press expose revealing that he sought and got four deferments from military service during the Vietnam War gets more play. It’s not the deferments that will hurt – Dick Cheney got five. It’s the fact that over the years, Romney has lied about it.

AP politely says his story has “evolved,” but tracks the puzzling changes. Running for president in 2007, Romney told the Boston Globe, “I longed in many respects to actually be in Vietnam and be representing our country there, and in some ways it was frustrating not to feel like I was there as part of the troops that were fighting in Vietnam.”

But in 1994, running against Ted Kennedy for his Massachusetts Senate seat while in his “I’m not a typical Republican” phase, he admitted “it was not my desire to go off and serve in Vietnam.” Fair enough: His father, George Romney, turned against the war, and so did a lot of Republicans (even if party hawks would later try to hang the “loss” of Vietnam on the antiwar left and their Democratic enablers). Indeed, in 1970, at 23, Romney told the Globe, ”If it wasn’t a political blunder to move into Vietnam, I don’t know what is.”

But while telling the truth about his lack of “desire to go off and serve” in 1994, Romney lied again, telling the Boston Herald he didn’t “take any actions to remove myself from the pool of young men who were eligible for the draft.” That’s absolutely not true. He got his first deferment while at Stanford University, where in his prep-school prankster phase he counter-protested a Vietnam draft protest. That’s another lie, in a way: While posing as pro-draft and pro-war, he was evading the draft with an “activity in study” deferment. After his freshman year, he got deferment status as “a minister of religion or divinity student,” which he’d keep while working in France as a missionary for his Mormon church.

Yet the AP reveals that other young Mormons were denied that deferment. And since the church itself strongly supported the war, its leaders eventually limited such deferments, but Romney kept his.

After his religious deferment, he got another academic deferment to finish school. By the time he was draft eligible, troop numbers were declining, and his lottery number was never called.

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/07/romney_dodged_the_draft/

 

[TehChad]

The challenger always gets a bump after the first debate, and it almost always goes back down. In fact we're seeing that already, and Obama is still ahead in most swing states. I wouldn't get my hopes up too much if you're planning a Romney victory celebration.

P.S. Go to Google Images, type in "Completely Wrong".

 

[PapaG]

LINK!

:MARIS61:

Think for yourself once in a while.

 

[maxiep]

What's surprising about the IBD/TIPP poll that has Romney up almost 5 percentage points is that it's D+8 (D 39%, R 31%, I 30%)

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

 

[MARIS61]

What's surprising about the IBD/TIPP poll that has Romney up almost 5 percentage points is that it's D+8 (D 39%, R 31%, I 30%)

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

In reality, most people who claim to be independents are simply teapartiers, which are simply hardline republicans.

 

[MARIS61]

P.S. Go to Google Images, type in "Completely Wrong".

That's funny. And true.

 

[maxiep]

RealClearPolitics.com moved NH (4 EV), PA (20 EV) and WI (10 EV) from "leans Obama" to tossup today. Biden had better stop the bleeding tomorrow. If Ryan has a strong performance, this sucker is going to continue to slip away from the Administration. Furthermore, it could impact downstate elections.

 

[barfo]

Cool. Thanks for the clarification. Usually, Rasmussen doesn't move that dramatically.

What was interesting to me is that Suffolk has pulled out of Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because they believe Romney has those states locked up.

Gary Langer, who runs the ABC News/Washington Post poll, quipped tartly, "With that kind of foresight, we should find out who he likes in the fifth at Aqueduct."

SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve was harsher. "This guy from Suffolk is obviously a jackass," he said.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-politics-and-gallup-poll_654143.html

Over the summer Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post wrote a critique of Gallup’s daily presidential job approval poll. The point of which was that Gallup was over-sampling whites and thus understating President Obama’s position in the adult population.

...

Alan Abramowitz of Huffington Post and The Democratic Strategist noticed that Gallup has increased its share of nonwhites from 27 percent the week of the convention to 32 percent last week, a nearly 20 percent boost. In other words, Gallup seemed to have tweaked its methodology with just weeks to go until Election Day to reflect the criticism that has come from the left.

...

So, from the looks of it, the left got what it wanted: Gallup altered its methodology with a month to go until Election Day. And the result – at least on the job approval question – is a shift in Obama’s favor.

 

[Denny Crane]

Cool. Thanks for the clarification. Usually, Rasmussen doesn't move that dramatically.

What was interesting to me is that Suffolk has pulled out of Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because they believe Romney has those states locked up.

Gary Langer, who runs the ABC News/Washington Post poll, quipped tartly, "With that kind of foresight, we should find out who he likes in the fifth at Aqueduct."

SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve was harsher. "This guy from Suffolk is obviously a jackass," he said.

barfo

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...rnout_effort_tests_obama_campaign_115743.html

Take Florida, where according to the most recent data from the secretary of state’s office, 841,941 Republicans already have requested absentee ballots compared with 768,072 Democrats. Numerically, it’s clear who is ahead.

...

As of this past weekend, Republicans were outpacing Democrats in requests for absentee ballots in Colorado, 656,813 to 627,064 -- an edge of roughly 30,000.

...

In North Carolina, Republicans were far ahead as of Saturday, requesting 65,683 ballots to just 33,927 for Democrats.

http://www.examiner.com/article/suf...ey-to-win-florida-virginia-and-north-carolina

The Suffolk University Political Research Center, based in Boston, is a widely respected polling agency .Since 2002, the Suffolk University Political Research Center has conducted polls and bellwether survey analyses with a 96% record of accuracy in predicting outcomes in Massachusetts, key battleground states, and nationally.

The Suffolk University Political Research Center examines political races and analyzes voter opinions on key issues. Founding director David Paleologos is one of the nation’s most sought-after political pollsters.

The Center's cutting-edge research on public opinion has gained national and international attention for its high degree of accuracy. The Center's results have been reported in more than 200 newspapers and by major news organizations worldwide.

 

[barfo]

Ok, so was the Suffolk pollster right to call VA, FL, and NC for Romney a month ago? Or was he a jackass?

barfo

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

nice bump

 

[BrianFromWA]

with the caveat that I don't know anything about how "normal" polllsters operate...

Is it kind of stupid to do these projections when almost 50% of exitpolled voters said that events of the week before the election were the "most important" reason that they voted for who they did, and that a significant number didn't know who they were going to vote for until they got to the polls?

 

[MickZagger]

Ok, so was the Suffolk pollster right to call VA, FL, and NC for Romney a month ago? Or was he a jackass?

barfo

teeheehee