Free Agent Next Up: The Buy-Out Market

[Hoopguru]

I'm so glad all the Oregon Live drama has come over to this forum. No wonder it still exists.

You can take the Forum member from Olive but you cant take the Olive from the forum member. O Live paved the way!

 

[kjironman1]

You can take the Forum member from Olive but you cant take the Olive from the forum member. O Live paved the way!

When i started posting at O-Live i never went to the Fan Forum at all. Just seemed like a bunch of arguing all the time. Then i started looking in on Game Threads. I honestly was a real nice poster at first. But they wore me down. Soon i was full fledge O-Live hate and discontent. There were days i had to take a sedative. The level of stupidity was unmatched for any place i have ever encountered.

Maybe we can start an over/under 500 conversation here. I'll play Jet! The Blazers are currently 9 games under 500.

Edit- Sorry as per Jet they are 11 games under 500 currently.

 

[CupWizier]

You never know? I do understand what Olshey said but if the team continues to win and the right player becomes available Olshey doesn't have to stay where he is. He can change his mind. Just sayin.

From his interview I got the impression was that they had a meeting and the higher ups (Jody Allen) mandated some cost cutting for this year and wasn't interested in losing assets such as first round picks. Everyone wants to blame Olshey, but I don't think there is a GM out there that doesn't want free reign to spend and I am pretty sure Olshey is in that category as well, but many become restricted from spending by upper management.

 

[hoopsjock]

You never know? I do understand what Olshey said but if the team continues to win and the right player becomes available Olshey doesn't have to stay where he is. He can change his mind. Just sayin.

Every single move since the Melo signing has been to save money. At one point they had 2 extra roster spots, never signed anyone. There was also a stretch where there wasn't a guy over 6'8" on the roster besides Whiteside and he was dealing with injuries and they still didn't sign someone, not even on a 10 day. The two trades they made were both to save money. It's pretty obvious that's their main focus right now. Heck, if we weren't going to use Gasol's roster spot he could still be on the bench mentoring the young guys but they had a clause in there to waive him.

Kanter signed for just under $5 million last year. Factor in taxes and signing someone would cost them approximately $1.5 million total. It's sad that saving that little of an amount (in NBA terms) is more important than improving the team considering we are in the tax either way. I sure hope you're right though and they reconsider it. That would make me wonder though who they could've gotten at the deadline if they were looking to actually use that roster spot versus just trying to dump Skal's contract.

 

[kjironman1]

From his interview I got the impression was that they had a meeting and the higher ups (Jody Allen) mandated some cost cutting for this year and wasn't interested in losing assets such as first round picks. Everyone wants to blame Olshey, but I don't think there is a GM out there that doesn't want free reign to spend and I am pretty sure Olshey is in that category as well, but many become restricted from spending by upper management.

Have them win the next two games then see where the team stands. They have a month to decide.

 

[kjironman1]

Every single move since the Melo signing has been to save money. At one point they had 2 extra roster spots, never signed anyone. There was also a stretch where there wasn't a guy over 6'8" on the roster besides Whiteside and he was dealing with injuries and they still didn't sign someone, not even on a 10 day. The two trades they made were both to save money. It's pretty obvious that's their main focus right now. Heck, if we weren't going to use Gasol's roster spot he could still be on the bench mentoring the young guys but they had a clause in there to waive him.

Kanter signed for just under $0.5 million last year. Factor in taxes and signing someone would cost them approximately $1.5 million total. It's sad that saving that little of an amount (in NBA terms) is more important than improving the team considering we are in the tax either way. I sure hope you're right though and they reconsider it. That would make me wonder though who they could've gotten at the deadline if they were looking to actually use that roster spot versus just trying to dump Skal's contract.

They can still sign someone into March and they are eligible to play in the playoffs right? I'm just saying if this team continues to win they might change their thinking?

 

[blazerkor]

When i started posting at O-Live i never went to the Fan Forum at all. Just seemed like a bunch of arguing all the time. Then i started looking in on Game Threads. I honestly was a real nice poster at first. But they wore me down. Soon i was full fledge O-Live hate and discontent. There were days i had to take a sedative. The level of stupidity was unmatched for any place i have ever encountered.

Maybe we can start an over/under 500 conversation here. I'll play Jet! The Blazers are currently 9 games under 500.

Edit- Sorry as per Jet they are 11 games under 500 currently.

.500 or 500%?

 

[hoopsjock]

Have them win the next two games then see where the team stands. They have a month to decide.

For buyout candidates or anyone who has been under contract by an NBA team this season, the deadline is March 1st or they are not playoff eligible.

 

[hoopsjock]

For buyout candidates or anyone who has been under contract by an NBA team this season, the deadline is March 1st or they are not playoff eligible.

The thing is they've known all year the schedule eases up at this point. So even if they go on a run right now and change their mind I consider that very poor planning.

 

[Propagandist]

From his interview I got the impression was that they had a meeting and the higher ups (Jody Allen) mandated some cost cutting for this year and wasn't interested in losing assets such as first round picks. Everyone wants to blame Olshey, but I don't think there is a GM out there that doesn't want free reign to spend and I am pretty sure Olshey is in that category as well, but many become restricted from spending by upper management.

According to Olshey, he's had free reign all this time (until Jody...Goddamn it, Jody!)... I think we can objectively say he made the most of that opportunity spending wise, but not so much strategy-wise.

 

[kjironman1]

For buyout candidates or anyone who has been under contract by an NBA team this season, the deadline is March 1st or they are not playoff eligible.

Do you happen to know when the season ends in China? I have not looked deep into this? Players like Jeremy Lin, Lance Stephenson. Even a guy like Ty Lawson might be available? Just a thought?

 

[Propagandist]

Do you happen to know when the season ends in China? I have not looked deep into this? Players like Jeremy Lin, Lance Stephenson. Even a guy like Ty Lawson might be available? Just a thought?

If there's one thing I've learned about Neil Olshey, it's that he doesn't like back-up point guards for some reason.

 

[kjironman1]

If there's one thing I've learned about Neil Olshey, it's that he doesn't like back-up point guards for some reason.

I would not agree with that. He has always had one. Bazz, Curry would be the most recent. I think they have committed to 1M.

 

[hoopsjock]

Do you happen to know when the season ends in China? I have not looked deep into this? Players like Jeremy Lin, Lance Stephenson. Even a guy like Ty Lawson might be available? Just a thought?

There is a big controversy right now about American players in China. The Chinese basketball league isn't playing right now due to the Coronavirus and most of the American players have been sent home. Normally they aren't eligible to play in the NBA until their season concludes, per FIFA rules, but they're trying to get out of their contracts since the season is postponed. I think they should be for sure!

Jeremy Lin would be great, but he seems to have written off the NBA after not receiving many offers last summer. Lance would be like Evan Turner in Stotts' system so I don't think that's the right move. Lawson would not be considered by the Blazers because of being arrested twice in the last 5 years for DUI. Olshey doesn't mess with those type of guys.

 

[hoopsjock]

According to Olshey, he's had free reign all this time (until Jody...Goddamn it, Jody!)... I think we can objectively say he made the most of that opportunity spending wise, but not so much strategy-wise.

That's not entirely true. Last season and this summer the Blazers added significant amounts to their payroll under Jody.

 

[Propagandist]

I would not agree with that. He has always had one. Bazz, Curry would be the most recent. I think they have committed to 1M.

Curry is sort of my point. Not really a prototypical point guard, just like the newly anointed Simons, just like previously anointed Evan Turner... I don't know.

 

[Propagandist]

That's not entirely true. Last season and this summer the Blazers added significant amounts to their payroll under Jody.

Yes sir. I was just thinking of this season, and how unplanned/sudden the change in direction seems. The more I've thought about it, I hear Olshey mentioning his rationale for offloading Skal as an attempt to absolve himself, ie blame it on Jody. If she wasn't going to games and handing Dame All-Star balls, I'd suspect she was thinking of selling...

 

[CupWizier]

According to Olshey, he's had free reign all this time (until Jody...Goddamn it, Jody!)... I think we can objectively say he made the most of that opportunity spending wise, but not so much strategy-wise.

I don't recall him ever saying that as I recall on occasion he mentioned he had discussed things with Paul Allen in the past and decisions were made. Paul Allen didn't force his influence but from most accounts he was involved. If you have a link to show that Olshey always had free reign I would sure appreciate it.

 

[illmatic99]

The math and logic behind saving $2 million in payroll doesn't make sense to me.

If the mandate was to get out of the tax then Olshey failed. Why would he be mandated to only save a couple million? Just one home playoff game brings in just as much revenue as the amount of money saved on Thursday. So making a move to help them reach the playoffs guarantees two home games if they get in. Make a good move and it could be the difference between a 3rd home game in round one or an extra series even.

I would totally get it if adding a player right now pushed us into the luxury tax after getting out but that's not the case. There is no penalty other than cost to the owner for signing someone right now.

This is why I'm so upset. They're dipping their toes into two different directions instead of just picking one.

Keep Whiteside, fine, go for it this year. Sign a vet that can help provide a spark like Hood, Kanter, and Ariza have.

Save money, fine, but actually make it worth saving money! I know $2 million is a lot of money to just about everyone in the world outside of maybe a couple thousand people but in the context of a NBA franchise it really isn't significant savings when you factor in that they're still a tax team anyway. Getting out of the tax gets you paid at the end of the year too instead of having to be the one paying because the teams not in the tax split the tax money.

It's certainly Jody's right to value $2 million however she wants but I'm not buying that she only mandated to save that little of an amount. In the two big trades Olshey made this summer (Bazemore and Whiteside), he took on significantly more money than went out which is the difference right now between being a tax team and being clear of the tax line. So even if you want to spin it that Olshey had to cut salary because Jody demanded it, that was his own decisions that put him in that position.

Stepping back a bit, I really think they had another move lined up to get under the tax in a 1 for 2 trade, with Hassan going out and us taking back two deals while skirting under the tax. I wonder if Nurk's setback changed those plans and they had already committed to the Skal move with ATL. This isn't like Neil. Even the Vonleh move a few yrs back very obviously got us below the tax. We throw around cash like crazy come draft time. Saving < 2 mil can't have been that much of a priority.

Something like Dieng + X for Hassan kinda move, and they ended up moving Dieng to Memphis at the last second. It's really curious that Minny ended up in the tax. I wonder if we backed out last minute on a move that we had planned earlier.

 

[hoopsjock]

Yes sir. I was just thinking of this season, and how unplanned/sudden the change in direction seems. The more I've thought about it, I hear Olshey mentioning his rationale for offloading Skal as an attempt to absolve himself, ie blame it on Jody. If she wasn't going to games and handing Dame All-Star balls, I'd suspect she was thinking of selling...

See this is exactly why I'm so upset about the trade deadline. I totally get dumping Skal if it got us under the tax line, but it didn't. I'd get it if they needed to use the roster spot and the prorated contract would cost less than Skal would since he's hurt anyway, but it appears as if that won't be the case.

So what seems more likely:

1) Jody asked Neil to get under the tax line.

2) Jody just wanted Neil to save a little bit of money.

#2 doesn't really make sense. The optics of saving a few million to not field the best possible team around Dame seems like a bad decision. It's basically like telling Dame "Fuck your prime, we're saving $2 million!" If the goal was #1, I totally get why that would be the case and could justify it over #2. It would suck that was the decision but at least they would've accomplished what they set out to do and it actually has some benefits over simply saving money.

It really only makes sense to me if Olshey failed to accomplish #1 and had to spin it as #2 to save face. In doing so you're right that he's passing blame to Jody. If it was only about saving money there are other ways to shed even more money off the tax payments. I don't know, it just doesn't add up that dropping Skal was their only move.

 

[hoopsjock]

Stepping back a bit, I really think they had another move lined up to get under the tax in a 1 for 2 trade, with Hassan going out and us taking back two deals while skirting under the tax. I wonder if Nurk's setback changed those plans and they had already committed to the Skal move with ATL. This isn't like Neil. Even the Vonleh move a few yrs back very obviously got us below the tax. We throw around cash like crazy come draft time. Saving < 2 mil can't have been that much of a priority.

Something like Dieng + X for Hassan kinda move, and they ended up moving Dieng to Memphis at the last second. It's really curious that Minny ended up in the tax. I wonder if we backed out last minute on a move that we had planned earlier.

Yeah, this would make a lot of sense. I know it's just spin but he flat out said they never even considered trading Whiteside. He didn't need to go into as much detail about it as he did though. Just another contradiction because he also said that they weren't going to make moves based on this season either. Under your scenario that is very short sighted.

 

[illmatic99]

Yeah, this would make a lot of sense. I know it's just spin but he flat out said they never even considered trading Whiteside. He didn't need to go into as much detail about it as he did though. Just another contradiction because he also said that they weren't going to make moves based on this season either. Under your scenario that is very short sighted.

Must have missed this.

 

[hoopsjock]

Must have missed this.

I just listened again. He says they knew weeks ago they weren't gonna get all the way down out of the tax too.

 

[CupWizier]

I just listened again. He says they knew weeks ago they weren't gonna get all the way down out of the tax too.

I would say that's evidence that upper management was likely calling the shots on moving Skal for the savings. Pretty much every GM would love to have a free reign and spend money unless mandated otherwise.

 

[wizenheimer]

I just listened again. He says they knew weeks ago they weren't gonna get all the way down out of the tax too.

I suspected getting completely out of the tax this season wasn't a goal

you and I went back and forth about this stuff a few times. My thinking was always that the instructions from Seattle were to reduce cost this season where they could AND stay under the tax next season. I thought next season was the priority as far as tax. A mandate if you will, and that would have knocked a lot of the trade ideas outside the lines next season with too much returning salary

it's too early to say for sure that's the case, of course, but I think any prospect of repeater tax will scare off an owner unless he's in a big market with a leading contender, and has a huge new local TV contract. The Warriors for instance.

if you recall, I did say I thought Portland had the margin next season to add an MLE-level contract, give or take a couple of million. That's what they did with Ariza. And I think that leaves them with the most options next year while staying out of the tax. They might be able to sign their first round pick; re-sign Whiteside to a 1 or 2 year deal; add an MLE contract (or two contracts splitting the MLE), and add a BAE contract; and do all that under the tax line. If they are determined to stay under the tax next season, being hard-capped wouldn't be a concern.

Between Whiteside, Ariza, and an MLE deal, Portland would have the option to trade for 40M in returning salary. It could gut their depth a little to do something like that, but as you've been complaining, there seems to be some friction between making the most of Dame's prime vs financial and other concerns. I'll point at Dame a little for that because he makes it easy for Olshey to sit on his hands by insisting that nobody needs to be traded. If Dame was registering discontent, more might have been done

 

[hoopsjock]

I suspected getting completely out of the tax this season wasn't a goal

you and I went back and forth about this stuff a few times. My thinking was always that the instructions from Seattle were to reduce cost this season where they could AND stay under the tax next season. I thought next season was the priority as far as tax. A mandate if you will

it's too early to say for sure that's the case, of course, but I think any prospect of repeater tax will scare off an owner unless he's in a big market with a leading contender, and has a huge new local TV contract. The Warriors for instance.

if you recall, I did say I thought Portland had the margin next season to add an MLE-level contract, give or take a couple of million. That's what they did with Ariza. And I think that leaves them with the most options next year while staying out of the tax. They might be able to sign their first round pick,; re-sign Whiteside to a 1 or 2 year deal; add an MLE contract (or two contracts splitting the MLE), and add a BAE contract; and do all that under the tax line. If they are determined to stay under the tax next season, then being hard-capped wouldn't be a concern.

Between Whiteside, Ariza, and an MLE deal, Portland would have the option to trade for 40M in returning salary. It could gut their depth a little to do something like that, but as you've been complaining, there seems to be some friction between making the most of Dame's prime vs financial concerns. I'll point at Dame a little for that because he makes it easy for Olshey to sit on his hands by insisting that nobody needs to be traded. If Dame was registering discontent, more might have been done

A couple of notes from this. It would've been possible to duck the tax this season, but in most scenarios it involved trading Whiteside which they didn't seem willing to do.

Also, triggering the repeater tax next year wouldn't effect next year's payment, so technically they could be a tax team next year and then avoid the tax at all costs the following 2 seasons and the repeater tax would never come into play.

I don't really get being a tax team this season given the injuries and best current realistic finish being the 8th seed and not trading this season for next season in terms of the tax. I think we can all agree their best shot at a title is probably next year or the year after that right? Why not use this season as the one not to go in the tax? Therefore next year you can go all in with hopefully a good chance.

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't really get being a tax team this season given the injuries and best current realistic finish being the 8th seed and not trading this season for next season in terms of the tax. I think we can all agree their best shot at a title is probably next year or the year after that right? Why not use this season as the one not to go in the tax? Therefore next year you can go all in with hopefully a good chance.

that's assuming there was any trade out there that could have taken another 5M off the payroll without adding any assets or cash to the deal. I'm not sure there was.

 

[tester551]

A couple of notes from this. It would've been possible to duck the tax this season, but in most scenarios it involved trading Whiteside which they didn't seem willing to do.

Trading Whiteside would mean Portland doesn't make the playoffs this year, unless a starting quality C was coming back. I know we are all excited for Nurk to come back, but when he does - I fully expect him to be on a minutes restriction for 10-20 games. Portland didn't have the luxury to trade Whiteside in this situation while still trying to make the playoffs.

Also, triggering the repeater tax next year wouldn't effect next year's payment, so technically they could be a tax team next year and then avoid the tax at all costs the following 2 seasons and the repeater tax would never come into play.

I know you've made this claim before, but that doesn't seem right. I've tried to find some clarification, but haven't found it. Do you have a source for this?

 

[hoopsjock]

that's assuming there was any trade out there that could have taken another 5M off the payroll without adding any assets or cash to the deal. I'm not sure there was.

It was $4 million and I know for a fact there was if getting out of the tax was the only goal.

 

[hoopsjock]

I know you've made this claim before, but that doesn't seem right. I've tried to find some clarification, but haven't found it. Do you have a source for this?

My source is what it says in the CBA.

Trading Whiteside would mean Portland doesn't make the playoffs this year, unless a starting quality C was coming back. I know we are all excited for Nurk to come back, but when he does - I fully expect him to be on a minutes restriction for 10-20 games. Portland didn't have the luxury to trade Whiteside in this situation while still trying to make the playoffs.

They would need a center? Are you serious? I had no idea!!!