Gallinari: Comparables the key
Denver's decision with Gallinari was similar. My initial reaction upon seeing the four-year, $42 million deal was that the Denver Nuggets overvalued their own player again, just as they did with Arron Afflalo. Looking a bit closer, however, this looks like a much better deal. The key is to focus on the position: Big wings who can score are very rare commodities.
And Gallinari has played extremely well thus far. Among small forwards, only LeBron James and Kevin Durant outrank him in PER. He has never played in an All-Star Game and might not ever do so, but he's 23 and extremely productive.
If you compare Gallo at $10 million a year to other not-quite-All-Star wings, you quickly realize this is a pretty good contract. The three best comparables all get considerably more: Andre Iguodala makes $13.5 million this season, Luol Deng $12 million and Rudy Gay $15 million. I realize all three of these deals are considered to be a bit generous, but Gallinari's tally is considerably less.
Similarly, look at forwards who are clearly worse than Gallinari: Hedo Turkoglu gets $11 million, Richard Jefferson $9 million, Caron Butler $8.4 million and Marvin Williams $7.5 million, and Tayshaun Prince made $11 million a year ago and re-signed for $7 million.
High-scoring small forwards are deceptively difficult to find, and Gallinari is still on the upswing. The Nuggets did the right thing to lock him in at those dollars.