No Excuses!

[wizenheimer]

It seems like you're argument amounts to all their starters sucked so bad their injuries don't mean anything, or don't mean very much.

that's simply not true at all. I don't see how you can get that from what I said.

but let me ask you something: what do you think Portland's record would be with a 'normal' amount of injuries? Say Nurkic healthy, no Whiteside, and a PF rotation of Zach and Tolliver, no Melo

 

[tlongII]

that's simply not true at all. I don't see how you can get that from what I said.

but let me ask you something: what do you think Portland's record would be with a 'normal' amount of injuries? Say Nurkic healthy, no Whiteside, and a PF rotation of Zach and Tolliver, no Melo

50 wins minimum.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

that's simply not true at all. I don't see how you can get that from what I said.

but let me ask you something: what do you think Portland's record would be with a 'normal' amount of injuries? Say Nurkic healthy, no Whiteside, and a PF rotation of Zach and Tolliver, no Melo

It's not just what you said here, but overall the last like 3-4 weeks. I'm trying to wrap my head around what your point actually is. You have constantly said the injuries are just an excuse, ok there an excuse, and the reason you've given is basically those players weren't very good anyways. See your argument above, Skal's just as good as Zach at C. Or they had a subpar record with Hood, or Nurk got hurt last year and they found ways to win. The argument always comes off to me as well none of those guys were really very important to winning anyways.
So why do you think they're losing so much this year compared to last year? What is the difference between an "excuse" and a "reason" in this discussion? You've harped on this for like a month that the injuries really aren't it, and always post stats that show those guys weren't doing much anyways. So I'm just trying to understand what your overall point is. I mean whatever it is they're a pretty crappy team compared to last year? Was it the summer moves? Is it Neil? Coaching?

 

[wizenheimer]

All of these points are related to injuries.

what I said: "but there's also a lot of other factors mitigating the actual impact of those injuries"

that's a pretty clear statement and I outlined what I believed those factors were

 

[wizenheimer]

It's not just what you said here, but overall the last like 3-4 weeks. I'm trying to wrap my head around what your point actually is. You have constantly said the injuries are just an excuse

that's false TB...I have not said "injuries are just an excuse". What I have said, repeatedly, is that I think people are leaning too heavily on injuries to explain the way Portland has been playing, and excuse it. Do I really have to debate the difference between those two positions?

and the reason you've given is basically those players weren't very good anyways.

that's just wrong....I haven't said that, and now I suppose, we have to debate what "good" means....?

See your argument above, Skal's just as good as Zach at C.

I posted their comparative numbers, Skal this season, Zach last season. Do you think I made those up? Has Skal played decently as a backup C this year? He's a better rebounder than Zach, clearly; he's more efficient on offense. Zach is probably a a better overall defender, but how much better is he as a backup C? How many more wins would Zach have been worth if he was taking Skal's backup C minutes?

Or they had a subpar record with Hood,

is that wrong? The point I'm making there is that Hood was not good enough by himself to make a dent in the won/loss record. He's a supporting player, and he was a supporting player for 20 of the 34 games, so it's not like he's missed the entire season

or Nurk got hurt last year and they found ways to win.

which is true because they found an adequate replacement in Kanter. This season they have a more than adequate replacement in Whiteside. Nurkic does things better than Whiteside and is a better team defender; but Whiteside is a better rebounder and shot-blocker, and yes, I know shot blocking isn't all there is to rim protection. Like I said, it isn't like Portland has had to downgrade from Nurkic to somebody like Joel Freeland

The argument always comes off to me as well none of those guys were really very important to winning anyways.

well then that's you choosing to interpret my argument poorly because that's not what I have been saying. You need to argue with that straw man, not me...

So why do you think they're losing so much this year compared to last year?

I think there are a lot of reasons.

* One of them is injuries and I've said that dozens of times although you apparently won't see when I say it because you're hung up on your belief I'm saying they don't matter....which again, I've never said

* I think a big reason for the struggles is that Olshey made some serious miscalculations when he put together this season's roster, and we actually have his words to gauge those miscalculations. He believed he put together a roster that was going to shoot better from the perimeter than last season's roster....a group of supporting players that were "going to do a much better job of floor spacing"...his claims, not mine.

* Obviously, he decided that the hypothetical upgrade to the offense was going to more than offset the loss of defense and rebounding with the departing players. Aminu + Harkless + Turner + Curry was just a much better perimeter defensive unit than Zach + Hood + Bazemore + Simons. Aminu + Harkless was a better rebounding starting forward combo than Zach + Hood, and then Tolliver + Hood. Aminu + Zach was a much better PF rotation than Zach + Tolliver, then Melo + Tolliver

* Turner + Curry (and the year before, Napier) were a much better pairing for running the 2nd unit's offense than Bazemore + Simons has been. And that highlights another issue with this team: there's no secondary facilitator because Olshey for some reason remains stubborn about refusing to add an actual backup PG. Turner was barely adequate in that role, but Bazemore has been a disaster, and because Hezonja sucks and Simone ain't ready, Stotts has been forced to rely on Bazemore, god save us all

* it was obvious that Olshey was putting a whole bunch of hope on Simons and Zach. His hyping the hell out of those two was miles over the top, it was crazy. And the biggest issue with that is that Portland was going to be heavily relying on two young players who were guaranteed to be inconsistent because of their ages and experience. But because Olshey has a tendency to force Stotts into giving major minutes to guys he wants featured, there was really nothing behind Zach and Simons...so yes, the injury to Zach knocked the pins out of the risky support Olshey built for those positions

* Portland misses the consistently good 3 point shooting of Curry and Meyers. I think they miss it a lot. Those two guys made 18% of Portland's three's last season and they did so at a 45% conversion rate. That hasn't been replaced and it's a gaping hole in the Stotts offense

* there was too much roster turnover. Aminu + Harkless + Meyers + Turner + Curry + Layman represented 22 years of rotation missing. As flawed as they were there was a lot of chemistry built up over those years of playing with Dame and CJ; of playing in the Stotts offense. That was always going to be a chore to replace and compensate for, and obviously, many of the things those players brought to the floor have not been replaced

does that help? I'm saying there are a lot of reasons why this year's team sucks so bad to this point. Yes, injuries are a part of it, maybe a significant part, but injuries aren't the only reason for this team struggling. You're an honest poster so I'm sure you'd credit that the reasons I just listed are valid. Maybe the only real difference is the weight we each put on the injuries as a factor

 

[wizenheimer]

50 wins minimum.

50 wins?...but they've only played 33 games....that's an impressive hot streak....

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

that's false TB...I have not said "injuries are just an excuse". What I have said, repeatedly, is that I think people are leaning too heavily on injuries to explain the way Portland has been playing, and excuse it. Do I really have to debate the difference between those two positions?



that's just wrong....I haven't said that, and now I suppose, we have to debate what "good" means....?



I posted their comparative numbers, Skal this season, Zach last season. Do you think I made those up? Has Skal played decently as a backup C this year? He's a better rebounder than Zach, clearly; he's more efficient on offense. Zach is probably a a better overall defender, but how much better is he as a backup C? How many more wins would Zach have been worth if he was taking Skal's backup C minutes?



is that wrong? The point I'm making there is that Hood was not good enough by himself to make a dent in the won/loss record. He's a supporting player, and he was a supporting player for 20 of the 34 games, so it's not like he's missed the entire season



which is true because they found an adequate replacement in Kanter. This season they have a more than adequate replacement in Whiteside. Nurkic does things better than Whiteside and is a better team defender; but Whiteside is a better rebounder and shot-blocker, and yes, I know shot blocking isn't all there is to rim protection. Like I said, it isn't like Portland has had to downgrade from Nurkic to somebody like Joel Freeland



well then that's you choosing to interpret my argument poorly because that's not what I have been saying. You need to argue with that straw man, not me...



I think there are a lot of reasons.

* One of them is injuries and I've said that dozens of times although you apparently won't see when I say it because you're hung up on your belief I'm saying they don't matter....which again, I've never said

* I think a big reason for the struggles is that Olshey made some serious miscalculations when he put together this season's roster, and we actually have his words to gauge those miscalculations. He believed he put together a roster that was going to shoot better from the perimeter than last season's roster....a group of supporting players that were "going to do a much better job of floor spacing"...his claims, not mine.

* Obviously, he decided that the hypothetical upgrade to the offense was going to more than offset the loss of defense and rebounding with the departing players. Aminu + Harkless + Turner + Curry was just a much better perimeter defensive unit than Zach + Hood + Bazemore + Simons. Aminu + Harkless was a better rebounding starting forward combo than Zach + Hood, and then Tolliver + Hood. Aminu + Zach was a much better PF rotation than Zach + Tolliver, then Melo + Tolliver

* Turner + Curry (and the year before, Napier) were a much better pairing for running the 2nd unit's offense than Bazemore + Simons has been. And that highlights another issue with this team: there's no secondary facilitator because Olshey for some reason remains stubborn about refusing to add an actual backup PG. Turner was barely adequate in that role, but Bazemore has been a disaster, and because Hezonja sucks and Simone ain't ready, Stotts has been forced to rely on Bazemore, god save us all

* it was obvious that Olshey was putting a whole bunch of hope on Simons and Zach. His hyping the hell out of those two was miles over the top, it was crazy. And the biggest issue with that is that Portland was going to be heavily relying on two young players who were guaranteed to be inconsistent because of their ages and experience. But because Olshey has a tendency to force Stotts into giving major minutes to guys he wants featured, there was really nothing behind Zach and Simons...so yes, the injury to Zach knocked the pins out of the risky support Olshey built for those positions

* Portland misses the consistently good 3 point shooting of Curry and Meyers. I think they miss it a lot. Those two guys made 18% of Portland's three's last season and they did so at a 45% conversion rate. That hasn't been replaced and it's a gaping hole in the Stotts offense

* there was too much roster turnover. Aminu + Harkless + Meyers + Turner + Curry + Layman represented 22 years of rotation missing. As flawed as they were there was a lot of chemistry built up over those years of playing with Dame and CJ; of playing in the Stotts offense. That was always going to be a chore to replace and compensate for, and obviously, many of the things those players brought to the floor have not been replaced

does that help? I'm saying there are a lot of reasons why this year's team sucks so bad to this point. Yes, injuries are a part of it, maybe a significant part, but injuries aren't the only reason for this team struggling. You're an honest poster so I'm sure you'd credit that the reasons I just listed are valid. Maybe the only real difference is the weight we each put on the injuries as a factor

I agree with most of what you said. I may not have asked the question well, but I think you sufficiently answered it. I guess my “problem” and maybe where the disconnect or miscommunication has been is that it seems to me anytime says oh its the injuries, you jump in with a nope thats not it type of response. Which was giving me the impression there was more to what you were trying to get at, then what I was getting from your posts.

 

[tlongII]

50 wins?...but they've only played 33 games....that's an impressive hot streak....

Perhaps you didn’t understand the question?

 

[CupWizier]

50 wins?...but they've only played 33 games....that's an impressive hot streak....

40% of the games have been played with a different starting lineup and many adjustments have had to be made in many of the other games due to injury. Plus we added in around 9 new players but that doesn't factor into any struggles? There is also no guarantee that what happened last season will just automatically carry over. I remember several years ago the Seattle Mariners had tied the best record in Major League history with a veteran roster as many of the players had career years and then the following season they struggled with pretty much the same team. Blame Olshey all you want, but you were one of many that complained about Leonard and Turner and there was no way we could retain all the players from last years such as Aminu and Curry. Changes were going to have to be made and not all changes pay immediate dividends and then factor in all the lineup changes and adjustments to the rotation. Life is a bitch sometimes.

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

There is also no guarantee that what happened last season will just automatically carry over.

Except that everyone in the organization was talking championship... and that was with the Nurk injury being known. Now having a slight drop off for those expectations is fine, but to be 5 games under .500 when your 2 best players making over 70% of salary cap are healthy is inexcusable. So with the Nurk injury being known while they were talking championship, you are saying the net affect of losing Zach and Hood and adding Melo justifies a drop off from championship aspirations to 5 games below .500 and fans are supposed to accept that and be grateful??!

 

[wizenheimer]

I agree with most of what you said. I may not have asked the question well, but I think you sufficiently answered it. I guess my “problem” and maybe where the disconnect or miscommunication has been is that it seems to me anytime says oh its the injuries, you jump in with a nope thats not it type of response. Which was giving me the impression there was more to what you were trying to get at, then what I was getting from your posts.

it's all good TB. I knew you weren't going after me because of my after shave, so it wasn't personal.

 

[jlprk]

Skal has been the backup C. And if you want to compare Skal this season to Zach last season in order to get a handle on what Portland would be gaining or losing:

PER: Zach 13.5....Skal 15.6
TS%: Zach .562....Skal .588
rebound rate: Zach 13.5%....Skal 15.6%
assist rate: Zach 7.1%....Skal 15.4%
block rate: Zach 3.9%....Skal 4.6%
defensive rating: Zach 110....Skal 110
winshares/48: Zach 13.5....Skal 15.6
defensive box plus/minus: Zach 1.0....Skal 1.6
box plus/minus: Zach 0.1....Skal 1.5

honestly, I don't really see that Zach would be a significant upgrade over Skal in the backup C role, and in many ways may have been a downgrade; Skal has been playing pretty well overall, most of the time. I think Zach has become overrated in his absence

as I said, I think too many people are leaning too heavily on injuries to excuse what this season has been. They are a factor for sure, but there's also a lot of other factors mitigating the actual impact of those injuries

I will say my radical statement of the day directly.

SKAL IS JUST AS GOOD AS ZACH COLLINS.

Olshey thinks Collins is a future all-star, so the board loves him. WRONG. HE'S A PRETZEL. As I've said all along, his ceiling is Ed Davis. Davis was about our 4th-best player per minute, and I still can't believe that Olshey dumped him to give Zach "Foul Trouble" Collins the starting job. Collins couldn't stay on the floor from fouls, was picked out as a target by every opponent driving to the basket, wasn't a starter in college, and is a stick man who will have an injury-filled short career.

On forwards, Olshey makes mistake after mistake after mistake.

 

[CupWizier]

Except that everyone in the organization was talking championship... and that was with the Nurk injury being known. Now having a slight drop off for those expectations is fine, but to be 5 games under .500 when your 2 best players making over 70% of salary cap are healthy is inexcusable. So with the Nurk injury being known while they were talking championship, you are saying the net affect of losing Zach and Hood and adding Melo justifies a drop off from championship aspirations to 5 games below .500 and fans are supposed to accept that and be grateful??!

Pretty much every team goes into the new season thinking championship. I have never heard a team say we are hoping to be a 10th place team. Have you? There are no guarantees when a new season comes around but based on last years success and with the talent before the injuries there was hope still and knowing Nurk would be back some time after the new year.

 

[Terry Stotts]

Hey guys. I get it, I havent really done a good job this year. Ahead of the new year I am making a resolution to admit to my mistakes. The injuries haven't helped, but it's not fair to the players to blame the losses on them. This season's roster is just as good as any that I have coached. I think we would have more wins if we had everyone available but even with the injries we have guys who are just as good as the guys we had last year.
Dame is Dame.
CJ is CJ.
Kent is Mo.
Melo is Chief.
Hassan is Nurk.
Ant is Turner.
Skal is Zach.
Tolliver is Jake.
I'm not really sure why it hasn't worked out very well but Neil is working on bringing in the guys who will equal last years Rodney and Kanter. Once that happens it will hlep Dame right the ship. And when Nurk and Zach are back everything will come together.

 

[Lanny]

The fact that this team only has five more wins than the Warriors is inexcusable.

How long can Neil continue to use Nurk as a crutch?

Nurk as a crutch? Where do you get that? Is this a fantasy of yours?
Although Stotts could use Nurk, Collins and Hood as a crutch I've never seen him do that.

 

[Lanny]

Hey guys. I get it, I havent really done a good job this year. Ahead of the new year I am making a resolution to admit to my mistakes. The injuries haven't helped, but it's not fair to the players to blame the losses on them. This season's roster is just as good as any that I have coached. I think we would have more wins if we had everyone available but even with the injries we have guys who are just as good as the guys we had last year.
Dame is Dame.
CJ is CJ.
Kent is Mo.
Melo is Chief.
Hassan is Nurk.
Ant is Turner.
Skal is Zach.
Tolliver is Jake.
I'm not really sure why it hasn't worked out very well but Neil is working on bringing in the guys who will equal last years Rodney and Kanter. Once that happens it will hlep Dame right the ship. And when Nurk and Zach are back everything will come together.

To begin with Skal is still learning and not there yet. He has plenty of games where he stinks.
Melo is better than Chief.
Bazemore stinks.
Simmons has a way to go yet, but you can see he's getting there. Still takes a lot of bad shots.
Tolliver stinks most of the time.
Hassan is slightly better than Nurk.
CJ and Lillard are actually both a little better than last year.
Who is better than Collins?
There is no Nurkic and there won't be a Nurkic as good as last year until next season.
When will Hood be back? Does anyone know?

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

Nurk as a crutch? Where do you get that? Is this a fantasy of yours?
Although Stotts could use Nurk, Collins and Hood as a crutch I've never seen him do that.

Again, Nurk injury was already baked into cake. Blazers made it to western conference finals without Nurk. Then they added Whiteside who is arguably playing better, and organization was talking championship. So essential you are saying the net effect of losing Hood and Collins but gaining Melo excuses going from title contender to 5 games below .500

 

[KSF-ERIC]

I would guess it's because their bench is stronger than Portlands?

Also, all injuries are not the same.

Siakam has been out 5 games. Lowry was out for a stretch earlier in the year (but Siakam wasn't out).

they also played 6 shitty teams (including Portland) in that stretch.

Powell missed the same games as Siakam, and they're 3-2 in that stretch. Plus, everyone talks about how great the win @ boston was, well, it came right after they lost @ home to Boston, by the same amount of points.


Ibaka missed games earlier, but not when their best player was out.

And also, like I said earlier, all injuries are not the same.

Nurk, out for most of the year if not all of it.
Collins most likely out for all of the season too.
Hood? Gone until next year at the best.

Their injuries? 10 games, 11 games, and 5 and 5 games. NONE of their injuries are season long where you have to make drastic changes to your lineup. Teams can handle short stretches where you are missing players. Bench players tend to be bench players for a reason (they're young/up and coming or they're old or just not that good). They can cover for short periods but to expect them to perform similar to the starters (for longer stretches of time) is not realistic. That's what has happened in Portland. We're expecting backups to perform at the pace that the starters were. The only positive is that Anthony and Hassan are performing positively. But at the expense of the depth (tho Anthony wouldn't be on the team if Collins had gotten hurt).

Losing Nurk, Collins and Hood lost them 3 starters, for the rest of the season (most likely). If Lowry, Ibaka and Powell were gone for the rest of the year, then maybe the situations would be comparable.

Olshey discussed bringing in Carmelo before Collins got hurt.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Again, Nurk injury was already baked into cake. Blazers made it to western conference finals without Nurk. Then they added Whiteside who is arguably playing better, and organization was talking championship. So essential you are saying the net effect of losing Hood and Collins but gaining Melo excuses going from title contender to 5 games below .500

. But before the season, everyone was saying that our success this year would depend on Collins making a leap. Then he got hurt. And since he can play PF and C, it was a big loss. Plus he was part of the core of 4 players returning from the WCF run. Losing him during the toughest part of our schedule killed us.

 

[BonesJones]

Also doesn't hurt to play in the East. They've played 11 games against western conference teams. We've played 23.

Also, they have 7 guys who have played in more than 80% of the games. We have 6.

If I were to point to one statistic over any other, though, that didn't include injuries, it's that Hezonja and Tolliver have comined for 48 games played, averaging 16 minutes each. Until yesterday, neither had scored even 12 points in a game.

I'm really struggling to remember a time when we got so fucking little out of a pair of forwards. That's not lack of heart or injuries or bad coaching. That's just two guys really, really sucking.

It's so tiring hearing people bitch about our coaching. If you think Stotts sucks, go look and see how Harkless and Aminu are doing on their new teams. I'll make it easy. The quick answer is they look about as shitty as Tolliver and Hezonja do this year in the advanced metrics.

It's a league loaded with versatile wingmen, and we have Carmello, Tolliver and Hezonja.

*sigh* I've been wanting us to trade CJ for a long, long time. He's put up good numbers this year after an early slump, and I think his trade value is about as good as it's going to get. Ant isn't perfect, but he's at least a passable stopgap if we trade CJ. We have to trade CJ for length and defense and scoring at that 3/4 position.

Thanks to the surprising production of Carmello and Ant's improvement, there's still time to save this season by at least getting into the playoffs. From there you hope some of our injured guys can contribute to winning basketball, and we get lucky and get to the second round. But I don't see it happening if we keep CJ.

The West only has 6 winning teams...

 

[BonesJones]

. But before the season, everyone was saying that our success this year would depend on Collins making a leap. Then he got hurt. And since he can play PF and C, it was a big loss. Plus he was part of the core of 4 players returning from the WCF run. Losing him during the toughest part of our schedule killed us.

I think people were saying that our ceiling depended on Collins making a leap. The floor shouldn't be this low without him.

 

[wizenheimer]

. But before the season, everyone was saying that our success this year would depend on Collins making a leap. Then he got hurt. And since he can play PF and C, it was a big loss. Plus he was part of the core of 4 players returning from the WCF run. Losing him during the toughest part of our schedule killed us.

I don't think everyone was saying that

I think a lot of people, including me, were saying that too much was riding on Collins and Simons, especially considering the gaps in the roster, and that neither player had established enough of their game to have that much riding on them

 

[GDiama]

What I cannot stand is not the Raptors winning although they got injuries. I cannot stand OKC winning at this pace and even at Toronto while we lose from literally every team with a positive record.i think we have just one against Dallas and a couple against OkC. Everything else againste crap. Why we cannot get some good wins? This is unbelievable! I think the injuries are hiding how bad we really are.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

The West only has 6 winning teams...

7

 

[stampedehero]

That’s why I sit here and laugh at folks who think otherwise. We were never that good from the get go. We pretty much got use to playing without Nurk so stop using his injury as an excuse. Zach Collins? Oh please that dude isn’t worth THIS much losing.

This team is a joke and would love to usher a fresh new era

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Ahead of the new year I am making a resolution to admit to my mistakes.

I'm waiting...........

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

When will Hood be back? Does anyone know?

Not this season.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

This is spot-on.

I'm a huge Collins fan but he's been extremely underwhelming. His development has been at a snail's pace.

He's a decent shooter and has real potential as a p&p big, but he's essentially a Joel Przybilla that is in real danger of fouling out of a game before halftime right now.

Jeez, what would you say if you weren't a huge fan?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Take me out to pasture and shoot me.

 

[beast blazer]

Portland really misses their bench from last year. Curry,kanter and hood were a big reason for our late season surge.