No Victor Claver Next Year

[BrianFromWA]

Twice

Actually, it was 3 times. 22, 31, 33.

Guh.

 

[Minstrel]

I also hoped Blair would fall to Portland, was very surprised when Portland didn't draft him and I wished they had.

Pritchard knew all the same things we did, though, and kept passing on him. I wonder why. (Not sarcasm...I really do wonder and would like to hear his real, unvarnished reasoning for why he passed.)

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Claver will be like Freeland or Petterri...international player that a bunch of hoops junkies will rave about but will never come here.

and if they do, they'll be disappointing role-players.

should have drafted Blair like many here wanted to.

 

[oldmangrouch]

All joking aside, I think Pritchard was looking for a talent that didn't want to come over this season. We already had too many guys on the roster, AND Freeland/Koponen waiting in the wings. Even still, as much as I like Pendergraph and Cunningham, I'd rather have Casspi and Blair.

QFT.

Granted, the sheer volume of injuries could not have been predicted - but why pass on a chance to add free talent?

 

[Boob-No-More]

I also hoped Blair would fall to Portland, was very surprised when Portland didn't draft him and I wished they had.

Pritchard knew all the same things we did, though, and kept passing on him. I wonder why. (Not sarcasm...I really do wonder and would like to hear his real, unvarnished reasoning for why he passed.)

Pritchard seems to have something against guys who can only play a single position. He prefers length and versatility over a wide-bodied specialist who can only play one position. So, he drafted Claver, Pendergaph and Cunningham, guys who can all play multiple positions (Claver 4,3; Pendergraph 5,4 and Cunningham 3,4) over Blair who can really only play the 4 (but play it very well).

I said before the draft that this team has enough length, but needs more width. We had a glaring need for a solid rebounding, defending, physical back-up power forward - and passed on the best one in the draft three times.

Same thing happened with Millsap in 2006. I wanted to take him at 30 or 31, but we passed on him 3 times and he went to Utah at 47 (the steal of the draft).

BNM

 

[oldmangrouch]

We didn't know that at the time. I was stunned that Blair dropped as low as he did. I was thrilled that he'd fallen to us at 24. And then pissed as hell that we passed on him.

BNM

Ah...but when YOU said it, at least some people listened. When I said the same thing, I got the torches-and-pitchfork treatment!

I guess I have to emulate you and try to be more lovable.

 

[mook]

I said it the day of the draft - Claver was a wasted pick. The Eurostash just ain't what it used to be. With the weak dollar, the growing of popularity of basketball and Europe and the associated higher salaries, using a late first round pick on a European player is a waste - unless you can get them signed immediately while they are still young and in need of development (i.e. Batum).

If you don't sign them immediately and let them play in Europe for a year or two, one of two things will happen. They will develop into a player worthy of an NBA rodter spot. In which case, the will get paid a lot more to stay in Europe than you can pay them based on the rookie salary scale for a late 1st round pick. Or, the won't develop (aka: they will suck). In which case, it's a wasted pick by definition.

Again, as I said on draft day, other than possibly summer league, we'll never see Victor Claver in a Portland Trail Blazers uniform.

We should have drafted Blair at 24. Even before all of the injuries we've had this season, we had a GLARING hole at back-up power forward. Blair would have been PERFECT in that role and would have gotten minutes from day one. With the injuries, he would have been getting big minutes.

BNM

Well, that does assume that the dollar continues to fall against the Euro indefinitely, far from a sure thing. The EU is having their own financial woes right now.

When we drafted Sabonis, for example, he was a player for the Soviet Union. He fell to us at pick 24 for that reason. Even though it took us a decade to eventually get him over, it still looks like a pretty smart pick by Portland. Even though we never got the real Arvydas, we still got a lot more value than most people do with a #24 pick. Because Portland made a long-term gamble that international circumstances would change.

Now, I'm not saying Claver is the next Arvydas, or that something as epic as the fall of the Berlin Wall will shake up his likelihood to come over here. But you have to admit it's certainly possible that in 5-10 years he could still wind up here as international circumstances change.

Or say that Claver really blows up in Europe, and the Knicks come calling to us with a trade offer three years from now. Maybe the rights to Claver suddenly become pretty valuable, because Claver knows he could get massive endorsement deals in a city like that, and New York could woo him while we can't.

Second round picks are a huge gamble anyway. In hindsight I'd prefer other guys, but I can see that Claver might one day pay off. Too many things can happen for anybody to confidently say that for the next 10-15 years a Euro will never, ever play in the NBA.

 

[Minstrel]

Ah...but when YOU said it, at least some people listened. When I said the same thing, I got the torches-and-pitchfork treatment!

You also said that Pritchard "mailed it in" which is what I found a bit...questionable. Disagreeing with his picks is reasonable...saying he didn't care or put any effort into drafting is quite a bit different.

Don't you think?

 

[oldmangrouch]

You also said that Pritchard "mailed it in" which is what I found a bit...questionable. Disagreeing with his picks is reasonable...saying he didn't care or put any effort into drafting is quite a bit different.

Don't you think?

Guilty as charged. I believed then, and still believe, that Claver will never be a Blazer.

 

[Luther]

Claver is better than casspee, sorry it's the truth.

Blair is good though, bitchard blew it there.

How is Claver better than Casspi when he's never played a minute in the league and Casspi is doing pretty well....?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Claver and Rudy are apples and oranges. Rudy was good enough to come over right away and that's what we wanted him to do. Only contract problems stopped it (of course without those problems he would have been drafted higher). Claver, OTOH, was not good enough to join the team right away - he had/has what KP believes to be "great potential."

We'll see - or if multiple posters here are right, we won't.

I agree that we should have drafted Blair + Casspi, but I do really like Cunningham.

 

[number 10]

If you don't sign them immediately and let them play in Europe for a year or two, one of two things will happen. They will develop into a player worthy of an NBA roster spot. In which case, the will get paid a lot more to stay in Europe than you can pay them based on the rookie salary scale for a late 1st round pick. Or, the won't develop (aka: they will suck). In which case, it's a wasted pick by definition.

nonsense.

Larry Coon

When a team signs a first round draft pick within three years after he is drafted, they use the salary scale for the year in which he signs (usually the player signs in the same year he is drafted). After three years they have the option of either using the salary scale or signing him like he was a free agent -- using their cap room, the Mid-Level exception, the exception or the Disabled Player exception, and with standard raises. They can only do the latter if the player did not play intercollegiately in the interim, and such a contract must be for at least three seasons.

NBA CBA

a First Round Pick who does not sign with the Team that holds his draft rights for any portion of the three (3) Seasons following the NBA Draft in which he was selected (and who did not play intercollegiate basketball during such period) may enter into either (a) a Rookie Scale Contract in accordance with Section 1 above, or (b) if the Team has Room in excess of the applicable first-year Rookie Scale Amount, a Contract covering no fewer than three (3) Seasons that provides for Salary plus Unlikely Bonuses in the first Salary Cap Year up to the amount of the Team’s Room and increases or decreases in Salary and Unlikely Bonuses in subsequent Salary Cap Years in accordance with Article VII, Section 5(c)(1).

Basically, you can sign a Eurostash to the MLE after three years. The current largest contract in Europe (Childress) is worth $20m over three years, the current max MLE is $17.4m over three years (5.8*3). I have a hard time seeing any worthwhile player giving up $2.6m to play in a lesser league, especially when you consider potential earnings on the second contract.

My conclusion is that the Eurostash is still a very viable option for NBA teams, and that with enough patience, nothing is going to prevent an NBA team from luring in a foreign player.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

nonsense.

Larry Coon


NBA CBA


Basically, you can sign a Eurostash to the MLE after three years. The current largest contract in Europe (Childress) is worth $20m over three years, the current max MLE is $17.4m over three years (5.8*3). I have a hard time seeing any worthwhile player giving up $2.6m to play in a lesser league, especially when you consider potential earnings on the second contract.

My conclusion is that the Eurostash is still a very viable option for NBA teams, and that with enough patience, nothing is going to prevent an NBA team from luring in a foreign player.

Thank you. I was about to post the same thing.

Stashing players in Europe can still be a successful way to build a team. It just takes patience. We'll begin to see the fruits to this approach this offseason, or the next, with our own eligible Euro, Freeland.

 

[drexlersdad]

nonsense.

Larry Coon


NBA CBA


Basically, you can sign a Eurostash to the MLE after three years. The current largest contract in Europe (Childress) is worth $20m over three years, the current max MLE is $17.4m over three years (5.8*3). I have a hard time seeing any worthwhile player giving up $2.6m to play in a lesser league, especially when you consider potential earnings on the second contract.

My conclusion is that the Eurostash is still a very viable option for NBA teams, and that with enough patience, nothing is going to prevent an NBA team from luring in a foreign player.

its actually more than that as you can also add 10% raises to the first and subsequent years. sheed just signed 6.5/6.3/6.7 =18.8, also nba is guaranteed.

claver is a special talent, 6'10" or so, slam dunk champ, nice outside game, he is only 21, very athletic, 8th in acb in defensive rebounds, hes a beast. if the biggest problem is, "hes gonna be too good to come here for cheap" i can live with that for a couple years until we can MLE him.

i really like casspi too, but its not like i couldnt imagine claver putting up 12/5 in 29 minutes a game on the kings.

 

[Boob-No-More]

nonsense.

Larry Coon


NBA CBA


Basically, you can sign a Eurostash to the MLE after three years. The current largest contract in Europe (Childress) is worth $20m over three years, the current max MLE is $17.4m over three years (5.8*3). I have a hard time seeing any worthwhile player giving up $2.6m to play in a lesser league, especially when you consider potential earnings on the second contract.

My conclusion is that the Eurostash is still a very viable option for NBA teams, and that with enough patience, nothing is going to prevent an NBA team from luring in a foreign player.

All true. But, salaries in the NBA are going down rather dramatically, which means the MLE will go down by a comparable amount over the next three years. Salaries in Europe are going up. Thus the delta between what we can offer Claver and what he can get in Europe will grow between now and when the three year rookie scale provision expires.

It also means we need to use our MLE to sign a player we already have rights to. So, that player cost us both a 1st round pick AND the ability to sign another player.

This, of course, assumes the Blazers will be over the cap. They will be due to the extensions Roy and Aldridge signed and the ones Oden, Batum, Fernandez, etc. will likely sign.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

Will he want to be here enough to forfeit the tens of millions of euros, a shorter, easier schedule and the better fringe benefits he would receive to stay in Europe (assuming he's any good, if he's not, who cares). I doubt it.

BNM

Nailed it. What player in their right mind would want to go to a foreign country, take less money, play less and put up with battling for table scraps (which pretty much makes it impossible to get a second big contract when they can just stay at home, make more money, take less of a pounding and be a bigger star?

Not everybody is motivated by playing for a ring, especially young players who are mostly motivated by playing for their first free agent contract.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Second round picks are a huge gamble anyway.

Claver was a first round pick. There is no rookie pay scale for 2nd round picks. So, using a 2nd round pick for a Eurostash can make more sense than using a first round pick.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

claver is a special talent, 6'10" or so, slam dunk champ, nice outside game, he is only 21, very athletic, 8th in acb in defensive rebounds, hes a beast. if the biggest problem is, "hes gonna be too good to come here for cheap" i can live with that for a couple years until we can MLE him.

If he's really that good, he'll likely be locked up to a long term contract in Europe before the 3-year rookie scale provision expires. And even if he's not, will the shrinking MLE be enough to lure him away for a more lucrative offer to stay in Europe?

Players in Europe often get a lot of very valuable perks in addition to their salary (housing, cars, favorable tax situtations, etc.) that make the true value of their contracts much greater than their base salary indicates.

BNM

 

[Draco]

All true. But, salaries in the NBA are going down rather dramatically, which means the MLE will go down by a comparable amount over the next three years. Salaries in Europe are going up. Thus the delta between what we can offer Claver and what he can get in Europe will grow between now and when the three year rookie scale provision expires.

Link?

I was under the impression European salaries have declined more than the NBA in the last year or so.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The current largest contract in Europe (Childress) is worth $20m over three years.

Incorrect.

"Agent Jim Tanner said Wednesday the three-year deal was worth about $20 million after taxes. The money is guaranteed, and Childress can opt out of the contract after each year."

Which means, by the time you pay state, federal and FICA taxes, Childress' contract is worth about $40 million USD.

What will the MLE be 3 years from now, maybe $5 million? If Claver is good, as in REALLY good, he would still likely forfeit well in excess of $10 million in salary and benefits to play for the Blazers compared to what he could get in Europe.

BNM

 

[drexlersdad]

If he's really that good, he'll likely be locked up to a long term contract in Europe before the 3-year rookie scale provision expires. And even if he's not, will the shrinking MLE be enough to lure him away for a more lucrative offer to stay in Europe?

Players in Europe often get a lot of very valuable perks in addition to their salary (housing, cars, favorable tax situtations, etc.) that make the true value of their contracts much greater than their base salary indicates.

BNM

yeah, you keep saying that.

the easy counter argument is... why dont all americans go play there if it is so superior? because they are scared of being away from their mommies? "its scary there, i dont want a shitload of money"

claver declared for the draft, i think that is a clue he wants to come here.

nicola pekovic and tiago splitter, the consensus two best euro players, have both been rumored to come over this summer. not sure why though, they can just stay there and be heros with free cars.

 

[drexlersdad]

If Claver is good, as in REALLY good, he would still likely forfeit well in excess of $10 million in salary and benefits to play for the Blazers compared to what he could get in Europe.

BNM

why did rudy come here? why did batum come here? casspi? Jerebko? marc gasol was the acb MVP im sure he had some great offers. i literally could go ON and ON.

 

[Nikolokolus]

why did rudy come here? why did batum come here? casspi? Jerebko? marc gasol was the acb MVP im sure he had some great offers. i literally could go ON and ON.

They come over when there is the potential to get plugged into the lineup. Now if LMA is traded or leaves in free agency at some point, then maybe there is more of a reason for Claver to leave and come here. Right now though? Claver is a 3/4 which means competing with either LaMarcus or Nic for minutes and within 2 years do you really think either of those guys are going to be ceding many minutes to a 24 year old Spanish 'rookie'? I sure don't.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Link?

I was under the impression European salaries have declined more than the NBA in the last year or so.

I don't have a link to those exact items, but here's alink to an older article that explains how a European 2 million euro salary is equal to a $5.5 million MLE salary.

The two factors are exchange rate and European salaries are reported as net, after tax income. The exchange rate has dropped since that article, but Childress' 4.5 million euro salary is worth almost 2x the MLE.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

They come over when there is the potential to get plugged into the lineup.

When Batum came over, there was no expectation that he'd be "plugged into the lineup." There was even a lot of speculation that he'd be in the D-League. That he worked his way into the lineup was a big upset (and one of the first signs that he may have special talent).

So I don't think players only come over when it seems likely they'll make the rotation.

 

[drexlersdad]

When Batum came over, there was no expectation that he'd be "plugged into the lineup." There was even a lot of speculation that he'd be in the D-League. That he worked his way into the lineup was a big upset (and one of the first signs that he may have special talent).

So I don't think players only come over when it seems likely they'll make the rotation.

yeah me neither, although it cant hurt in negotiations. like i said, if the worst thing about him becomes that he is too good to come here, ill take it.

 

[Boob-No-More]

why did rudy come here? why did batum come here? casspi? Jerebko? marc gasol was the acb MVP im sure he had some great offers. i literally could go ON and ON.

Rudy was a rare exception - a player who forfeited a ton of money to realize his dream to play in the NBA. Don't assume because Pritchard sweet talked Rudy into giving up millions he'll be able to do the same to any other established european player.

The others you mentioned were not established stars in Europe, or were 2nd round picks not subject to the rookie salary scale. As I said in my other posts, if you draft a euro late in the first round, you better bring them over right away (Batum), and you are better using a 2nd round pick (Gasol) on a eurostash. Gasol, for example was picked later in the draft than Rudy, but is making 3x as much money (no rookie salary scale for 2nd rounders).

Again, my point wasn't to NOT draft European players. The point was that if you draft them late in the first round, you better bring them over right away (not stash them and let them develop in Europe) - or if you do plan to stash a young euro, you're better off using a 2nd round pick than a late first rounder.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

claver declared for the draft, i think that is a clue he wants to come here.

Why not declare. It gives him more options and a negotiating chip.

nicola pekovic and tiago splitter, the consensus two best euro players, have both been rumored to come over this summer. not sure why though, they can just stay there and be heros with free cars.

Splitter was expected to be a high lottery pick for 3 years in a row, but kept pulling out of the draft. He was finally drafted 28th by the Spurs in 2007 - when he was automatically eligible for the draft (due to being over 22 years old). His current contract expires at the end of this season. It will be interesting to see if the Spurs will be able to convince him to come over, or if he'll take more money to stay in Europe.

BNM

 

[drexlersdad]

Rudy was a rare exception - a player who forfeited a ton of money to realize his dream to play in the NBA. Don't assume because Pritchard sweet talked Rudy into giving up millions he'll be able to do the same to any other established european player.

so chris wallace was able to convince marc gasol of the same thing...doest actually seem so rare.

The others you mentioned were not established stars in Europe, or were 2nd round picks not subject to the rookie salary scale. As I said in my other posts, if you draft a euro late in the first round, you better bring them over right away (Batum), and you are better using a 2nd round pick (Gasol) on a eurostash. Gasol, for example was picked later in the draft than Rudy, but is making 3x as much money (no rookie salary scale for 2nd rounders).

after 3 years, the rookie scale is irrelevant, i really dont understand why you keep mentioning that. while it may be theoretically better to draft them in the 2nd round, doest it then make some sense to grab them in the 1st before someone else does? its not a perfect world, we cant always have exactly what we want, and we have to adapt.

Again, my point wasn't to NOT draft European players. The point was that if you draft them late in the first round, you better bring them over right away (not stash them and let them develop in Europe) - or if you do plan to stash a young euro, you're better off using a 2nd round pick than a late first rounder.

i know you arent saying NOT to draft euros, that would be rediculous. tiago splitter was a late 1st by the spurs and is now a star in europe and one of the best players. and will likely come over to the spurs this summer.

the only reason that claver will not come to the nba is if he isnt good enough.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]