Exclusive Nurk is UNBEAVABLE!

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Mr. Robot said:
if nurk can play consistently like hes been playing with the bigger role, id put him in the top 5, but sure, someone might say its adebayo or sabonis or ayton

the thing is, nurk never had bigger role consistently
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But a lot of those guys play better than Nurk without as big a role as Nurk seems to need to play well.
 
Mr. Robot said:
if nurk can play consistently like hes been playing with the bigger role, id put him in the top 5, but sure, someone might say its adebayo or sabonis or ayton

the thing is, nurk never had bigger role consistently
Click to expand...

I know you don't like it when I post stats, but here goes

FGA/100 possessions over the last 3-4 seasons:

Nurkic 2018-19 20.3 2019-20 20.5 2020-21 18.5 2021-22 18.6
Sabonis: 2018-19 18.6 2019-20 19.1 2020-21 19.2 2021-22 17.4
Adebayo: 2018-19 12.4 2019-20 16.0 2020-21 18.5 2021-22 20.4
Ayton: 2018-19 19.0 2019-20 21.8 2020-21 16.0 2021-22 18.8

then there are the usage rates:

Nurkic: 2018-19 24.7 2019-20 24.0 2020-21 22.32021-22 23.7
Sabonis: 2018-19 23.5 2019-20 23.3 2020-21 24.1 2021-22 21.9
Adebayo: 2018-19 15.8 2019-20 21.2 2020-21 23.7 2021-22 25.3
Ayton: 2018-19 21.2 2019-20 23.7 2020-21 18.2 2021-22 21.0

now, to gauge those two sets of numbers we can look at TS% because that can measure who deserved more shots and who deserved less:

Nurkic: 2018-19 .570 2019-20 .567 2020-21 .554 2021-22 .586
Sabonis: 2018-19 .630 2019-20 .586 2020-21 .601 2021-22 .644
Adebayo: 2018-19 .623 2019-20 .598 2020-21 .626 2021-22 .577
Ayton: 2018-19 .608 2019-20 .568 2020-21 .653 2021-22 .654

also, Nurkic has a higher career assist rate than Ayton (but Nurk doesn't play with Chris Paul), while he has a significantly lower assist rate than Saboni and Adebayo

so, of those 4 players, over the last 4 seasons, sure looks like Nurk has had the highest rate of FGA's & the highest usage rate, while also posting the lowest efficiency. I don't see reasons there why Nurkic has been short changed in opportunities

now I didn't compare Valanciunas, but looking at his history, he's had a little higher FG rate and usage rate than Nurk. But then, his career TS% is .616 while Nurk's is .541. Over the last 4 season's Nurk's mark is probably around .570. But over the same time frame, Val's TS% is around .625

you think I'm a Nurk hater; I'm not. I want Portland to re-sign him. But because of Nurk's inconsistency and injury history, I want the contract to be a lot more team-friendly than Nurk-friendly
 
KSF-ERIC said:
But a lot of those guys play better than Nurk without as big a role as Nurk seems to need to play well.
Click to expand...
Why can't Nurk have a big role? His scoring efficiency has gone way up in the games with Winslow and Hart. He's rebounding like a beast.
I don't understand the problem of a player playing better the more he is used, especially in a position we don't have an alternate for.
If Chauncey or whomever decides we don't want a big role for Nurk, then we shouldn't re-sign Nurk at all.
 
wizenheimer said:
I know you don't like it when I post stats, but here goes

FGA/100 possessions over the last 3-4 seasons:

Nurkic 2018-19 20.3 2019-20 20.5 2020-21 18.5 2021-22 18.6
Sabonis: 2018-19 18.6 2019-20 19.1 2020-21 19.2 2021-22 17.4
Adebayo: 2018-19 12.4 2019-20 16.0 2020-21 18.5 2021-22 20.4
Ayton: 2018-19 19.0 2019-20 21.8 2020-21 16.0 2021-22 18.8

then there are the usage rates:

Nurkic: 2018-19 24.7 2019-20 24.0 2020-21 22.32021-22 23.7
Sabonis: 2018-19 23.5 2019-20 23.3 2020-21 24.1 2021-22 21.9
Adebayo: 2018-19 15.8 2019-20 21.2 2020-21 23.7 2021-22 25.3
Ayton: 2018-19 21.2 2019-20 23.7 2020-21 18.2 2021-22 21.0

now, to gauge those two sets of numbers we can look at TS% because that can measure who deserved more shots and who deserved less:

Nurkic: 2018-19 .570 2019-20 .567 2020-21 .554 2021-22 .586
Sabonis: 2018-19 .630 2019-20 .586 2020-21 .601 2021-22 .644
Adebayo: 2018-19 .623 2019-20 .598 2020-21 .626 2021-22 .577
Ayton: 2018-19 .608 2019-20 .568 2020-21 .653 2021-22 .654

also, Nurkic has a higher career assist rate than Ayton (but Nurk doesn't play with Chris Paul), while he has a significantly lower assist rate than Saboni and Adebayo

so, of those 4 players, over the last 4 seasons, sure looks like Nurk has had the highest rate of FGA's & the highest usage rate, while also posting the lowest efficiency. I don't see reasons there why Nurkic has been short changed in opportunities

now I didn't compare Valanciunas, but looking at his history, he's had a little higher FG rate and usage rate than Nurk. But then, his career TS% is .616 while Nurk's is .541. Over the last 4 season's Nurk's mark is probably around .570. But over the same time frame, Val's TS% is around .625

you think I'm a Nurk hater; I'm not. I want Portland to re-sign him. But because of Nurk's inconsistency and injury history, I want the contract to be a lot more team-friendly than Nurk-friendly
Click to expand...
How is Nurk looking now in a different offensive style with different players?
 
blazerfan11 said:
Shot quantity shouldn't be the issue. To me it's shot quality. Are we going to see crappy box scores again where one of ant or lillard shoot 8 for 21 for 20 points? For me that's an instant fail for that backcourt.
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Well yeah I would expect that with a lower usage
 
At any rate Nurkic is playing on a different team. it's pretty much like he had been traded.
None of these guys were starters for Portland at the beginning of the season, and they are playing quite differently than they did before.
Look what happened to Andrew Wiggins. He was one of the biggest under performers compared to his salary in the league.
I can't see how someone would say that Nurkic's past is more relevant than how he is playing right now. Is Andrew Wiggins going to go back to what he was in Minnesota?
 
Orion Bailey said:
omgosh what is going on around here!!!!

first @tlongII claims Nurk is Beaverless and now you think hes part of a squirrel sandwich???

Animal planet is as spun as the human planet it seems!
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Yup! Middle squirrel. When they trade him, I will have to re post.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
8 centers better than Nurk:

Jokic
Embiid
KAT
Gobert
Jonas
Ayton
Sabonis
Bam

Sure, Nurk plays like Top 5 sometimes but the above players are more consistent.
Click to expand...

I would definitely include All Star Jarrett Allen in that list. He is incredible this year.

blazerfan11 said:
At any rate Nurkic is playing on a different team. it's pretty much like he had been traded.
None of these guys were starters for Portland at the beginning of the season, and they are playing quite differently than they did before.
Look what happened to Andrew Wiggins. He was one of the biggest under performers compared to his salary in the league.
I can't see how someone would say that Nurkic's past is more relevant than how he is playing right now. Is Andrew Wiggins going to go back to what he was in Minnesota?
Click to expand...

I don't think Nurk's efficiency has increased with his bigger role. Of course the counting stats are better by getting more mins and touches
 
Nurk is way better in Chauncey's system but I won't truly BEAV until he shows it in a playoff series where they have game-planned for him.
He's never been good at handling double teams, seems to be poor at dealing with blind side doubles, and I think if an opposing coach plans to bluff/hard double and mix it up on defense Nurk will turn it over a ton. Maybe he'll get better at that but my suspicion is that he'll underwhelm if they force feed him the ball in a playoff game.
Hope I'm wrong...........at least he seems to be maturing a bit making less dumb fouls.

I'm rooting for him.....I want to BEAV!
 
KSF-ERIC said:
But a lot of those guys play better than Nurk without as big a role as Nurk seems to need to play well.
Click to expand...
Maybe, but why would you pay a player $35 million (Gobert) and not give him a big role? I think a lot of big guys are under-used on offense. Nurk can be difficult to defend. Sam Mitchell on NBA TV said that Nurkic's offense was having an effect on Jaren Jackson's offense. He also wondered aloud, what the hell were coaching staffs doing in the past not using Nurkic as much.
 
HomerLovesKoolAid said:
Nurk is way better in Chauncey's system but I won't truly BEAV until he shows it in a playoff series where they have game-planned for him.
He's never been good at handling double teams, seems to be poor at dealing with blind side doubles, and I think if an opposing coach plans to bluff/hard double and mix it up on defense Nurk will turn it over a ton. Maybe he'll get better at that but my suspicion is that he'll underwhelm if they force feed him the ball in a playoff game.
Hope I'm wrong...........at least he seems to be maturing a bit making less dumb fouls.

I'm rooting for him.....I want to BEAV!
Click to expand...

I agree. Pretty much all players can be shut down in playoffs if smart coaches game plan for it. Especially bigs because few of them can put the ball on the floor. Force-feeding him won't work. The key is to have multiple scoring options so they can't game plan for just 1 or 2 players. Of course, good ball movement helps a lot.
 
blazerfan11 said:
He also wondered aloud, what the hell were coaching staffs doing in the past not using Nurkic as much.
Click to expand...

If only there was a stat to see how much a player is used on offense. Oh, wait, there is... USG%

Other than the 2020-2021 season, Nurkic had a larger USG% and FGA per game under TS teams than this year. It's a lot more likely to be a combination of health and contract year and dedication by Nurk that not giving him opportunities...
 
andalusian said:
If only there was a stat to see how much a player is used on offense. Oh, wait, there is... USG%

Other than the 2020-2021 season, Nurkic had a larger USG% and FGA per game under TS teams than this year. It's a lot more likely to be a combination of health and contract year and dedication by Nurk that not giving him opportunities...
Click to expand...

there also might be this correlation:

as a Blazer, in 2017-18 Nurk had his highest FGA/100-possessions (2.3 more than 2nd highest season) and highest usage rate of his career. That season, he had, by far, the lowest TS%, OBPM, and offensive rating of his Blazer career

now, a big part of that may have been that he was only 23 and has since matured. But still, that a possible correlation that's hard to ignore
 
Sam Mitchell, after the Portland victory in Memphis: "If you look at the stat sheet closely, the difference in this game was Jaren Jackson. Nurkic took him out of the game. Jaren Jackson spent so much energy and time trying to guard Nurkic, it took away his offense."
(Jaren Jackson was 2-10 for 7 points in the game.)
Mitchell's post-game comments start at 8:23 in this video:

 
A big part of his play lately is that Chauncey is running sets to get him good low post position. Terry would feed Nurk by walking the ball up the side of the court then entering directly to Nurk. By that time Nurkic had been pushed out to 15 feet then had to exhert a bunch of energy backing his guy down while giving teams time to double.
 
blazerfan11 said:
Sam Mitchell, after the Portland victory in Memphis: "If you look at the stat sheet closely, the difference in this game was Jaren Jackson. Nurkic took him out of the game. Jaren Jackson spent so much energy and time trying to guard Nurkic, it took away his offense."
(Jaren Jackson was 2-10 for 7 points in the game.)
Mitchell's post-game comments start at 8:23 in this video:

Click to expand...

Quite the throwdown on Stotts.
 
BonesJones said:
A big part of his play lately is that Chauncey is running sets to get him good low post position. Terry would feed Nurk by walking the ball up the side of the court then entering directly to Nurk. By that time Nurkic had been pushed out to 15 feet then had to exhert a bunch of energy backing his guy down while giving teams time to double.
Click to expand...
Yes! Just one of the long list of frustrating things about the Blazer offense in the past.
 
Check out how easy (or seemingly just too much work for everyone in the past) it is for Nurk to get a near 100% shot at the hoop. It does take a few passes and player movement by him and his teammates.
Simons to Nurk, to Josh Hart, to Winslow, back to Nurk.
Edit: maybe it isn't "easy" but definitely "possible."

 
Last edited:
blazerfan11 said:
Check out how easy (or seemingly just too much work for everyone in the past) it is for Nurk to get a near 100% shot at the hoop. It does take a few passes and player movement by him and his teammates.
Simons to Nurk, to Josh Hart, to Winslow, back to Nurk.
Edit: maybe it isn't "easy" but definitely "possible."

Click to expand...


that seemed more like a catch-&-shoot than a post-up. Maybe a spot-up?

according to NBA.com:

post-up stats: percentage of player's offense - points/possession - percentile:

Myles Turner: 12.7% - 1.16 - 89th percentile (maybe why Portland was interested in trading for him)
E. Freedom: 15.4% - 1.15 - 87th percentile
Biyombo: 10.6% - 1.14 - 87th percentile
Olynyk: 12.4% - 1.13 - 85th percentile
Jokic - 21.1% - 1.11 - 82nd percentile
Embiid: 29.6% - 1.08 - 80th percentile
J. Allen: 14.0% - 1.07 - 77th percentile
Aldridge: 17.2% - 1.06 - 76th percentile
M. Harrell: 19.9% - 1.03 - 71st percentile
Ayton: 21.2% - 1.01 - 68th percentile
Whiteside: 10.4% - 0.98 - 63rd percentile
A. Gordon: 15.8% - 0.97 - 63rd percentile
AD: 17.0% - 0.97 - 61st percentile
Valunciunas: 27.5% - 0.97 - 60th percentile
Jaren Jackson: 12.1% - 0.97 - 59th percentile
E. Mobley: 15.7% - 0.96 - 57th percentile
Giannis: 13.5% - 0.94 - 55th percentile (thought he'd be higher)
Ibaka: 13.4% - 0.94 - 54th percentile
Horford: 13.8% - 0.93 - 53rd percentile
Robin Lopez: 44.2% - 0.92 - 48th percentile
Adebayo: 15.2% - 0.91 - 45th percentile
J. Collins: 18.9% - 0.91 - 44th percentile
C.Wood: 10.0% - 0.90 - 42nd percentile
Porzingas: 22.3% - 0.89 - 39th percentile
Portis: 15.0% - 0.89 - 39th percentile
JaVale: 10.4% - 0.87 - 35th percentile
Sabonis: 16.0% - 0.87 - 34th percentile
Nurkic: 26.7% - 0.85 - 32nd percentile
Poeltl: 10.4% - 0.84 - 31st percentile
Vucevic: 17.4% - 0.84 - 30th percentile
KAT: 15.6% - 0.84 - 29th percentile
Gobert: 5% - 0.82 - 25th percentile (a bit surprising until I remember he gets a lot of lobs and catches at the rim rather than post-ups)

I know Nurkic fans don't like it when I post numbers like this, but these are the numbers. This pretty closely matches what I've seen; passes the eyeball test, IMO. Nurk really is not good at posting up and it makes me wonder why people think he should be given more post-up opportunities

maybe these number should be weighted by frequency or percentage of offense but I don't know how that could be done or even if it would be a valid gauge. And maybe, players like Aaron Gordon and John Collins shouldn't be on this list because they won't be posting up the same people C's post-up. Still, it's post-up offense

Nurkic was worse last season in post-up; only in the 17th percentile. So he has 'improved' but his efficiency in post-up still generally sucks. he shouldn't be posting up as much as he is. He's much better in the PnR where he averages 1.19 ppp vs 0.85 in post-up. He's in the 68thmpercentile in PnR. Not elite but at least it's in the realm of decent efficiency

I want Portland to re-sign Nurkic, if for no other reason that they don't have any good alternative. I don't want them to re-sign Nurkic for too much money and right now I'd draw the line around 15M/year. He is simply not the defensive force he was before he broke his leg, and that was nearly 3 years ago. It does seem to be a balancing act keeping Nurkic happy with his role on offense. But this season, as in past seasons, he ranks well above the median for C's in FGA rate and usage rate, but below the median in overall efficiency
 
wizenheimer said:
that seemed more like a catch-&-shoot than a post-up. Maybe a spot-up?

according to NBA.com:

post-up stats: percentage of player's offense - points/possession - percentile:

Myles Turner: 12.7% - 1.16 - 89th percentile (maybe why Portland was interested in trading for him)
E. Freedom: 15.4% - 1.15 - 87th percentile
Biyombo: 10.6% - 1.14 - 87th percentile
Olynyk: 12.4% - 1.13 - 85th percentile
Jokic - 21.1% - 1.11 - 82nd percentile
Embiid: 29.6% - 1.08 - 80th percentile
J. Allen: 14.0% - 1.07 - 77th percentile
Aldridge: 17.2% - 1.06 - 76th percentile
M. Harrell: 19.9% - 1.03 - 71st percentile
Ayton: 21.2% - 1.01 - 68th percentile
Whiteside: 10.4% - 0.98 - 63rd percentile
A. Gordon: 15.8% - 0.97 - 63rd percentile
AD: 17.0% - 0.97 - 61st percentile
Valunciunas: 27.5% - 0.97 - 60th percentile
Jaren Jackson: 12.1% - 0.97 - 59th percentile
E. Mobley: 15.7% - 0.96 - 57th percentile
Giannis: 13.5% - 0.94 - 55th percentile (thought he'd be higher)
Ibaka: 13.4% - 0.94 - 54th percentile
Horford: 13.8% - 0.93 - 53rd percentile
Robin Lopez: 44.2% - 0.92 - 48th percentile
Adebayo: 15.2% - 0.91 - 45th percentile
J. Collins: 18.9% - 0.91 - 44th percentile
C.Wood: 10.0% - 0.90 - 42nd percentile
Porzingas: 22.3% - 0.89 - 39th percentile
Portis: 15.0% - 0.89 - 39th percentile
JaVale: 10.4% - 0.87 - 35th percentile
Sabonis: 16.0% - 0.87 - 34th percentile
Nurkic: 26.7% - 0.85 - 32nd percentile
Poeltl: 10.4% - 0.84 - 31st percentile
Vucevic: 17.4% - 0.84 - 30th percentile
KAT: 15.6% - 0.84 - 29th percentile
Gobert: 5% - 0.82 - 25th percentile (a bit surprising until I remember he gets a lot of lobs and catches at the rim rather than post-ups)

I know Nurkic fans don't like it when I post numbers like this, but these are the numbers. This pretty closely matches what I've seen; passes the eyeball test, IMO. Nurk really is not good at posting up and it makes me wonder why people think he should be given more post-up opportunities

maybe these number should be weighted by frequency or percentage of offense but I don't know how that could be done or even if it would be a valid gauge. And maybe, players like Aaron Gordon and John Collins shouldn't be on this list because they won't be posting up the same people C's post-up. Still, it's post-up offense

Nurkic was worse last season in post-up; only in the 17th percentile. So he has 'improved' but his efficiency in post-up still generally sucks. he shouldn't be posting up as much as he is. He's much better in the PnR where he averages 1.19 ppp vs 0.85 in post-up. He's in the 68thmpercentile in PnR. Not elite but at least it's in the realm of decent efficiency

I want Portland to re-sign Nurkic, if for no other reason that they don't have any good alternative. I don't want them to re-sign Nurkic for too much money and right now I'd draw the line around 15M/year. He is simply not the defensive force he was before he broke his leg, and that was nearly 3 years ago. It does seem to be a balancing act keeping Nurkic happy with his role on offense. But this season, as in past seasons, he ranks well above the median for C's in FGA rate and usage rate, but below the median in overall efficiency
Click to expand...
Interesting stuff, but I'd really like to know what is our eFG% on possession where we go to a Nurk post up.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Interesting stuff, but I'd really like to know what is our eFG% on possession where we go to a Nurk post up.
Click to expand...

why do I always suspect sarcasm even when it's not apparent...am I too cynical?

anyway, at the risk of being woooshed, why eFG%?
 
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