Exclusive Nurk is UNBEAVABLE!

[Fairly-Hard]

why do I always suspect sarcasm even when it's not apparent...am I too cynical?

anyway, at the risk of being woooshed, why eFG%?

I think maybe Nurk has gotten a bit better at passing out of the post up. I have been noticing teams are starting to double him more when he gets the ball. He seems to be finding an open man more?
I have no idea on how to actually define that so a stat could be attached but my overall feeling is they have done pretty well with the ball in his hands at the post.

 

[HailBlazers]

I think maybe Nurk has gotten a bit better at passing out of the post up. I have been noticing teams are starting to double him more when he gets the ball. He seems to be finding an open man more?
I have no idea on how to actually define that so a stat could be attached but my overall feeling is they have done pretty well with the ball in his hands at the post.

This is why you post up. And why we should foster those skills in Nurk. If he can get to the level of consistently drawing a double then you have a unique/useful playoff weapon. People can go ahead and point to all of Nurk's obvious flaws but I'm going to go out on a limb and say terry did him no favors and Chauncey will only make him better.

 

[wizenheimer]

speaking of post-up; Blazers as a team




* Blazers rank 23rd in points/post-up
* Blazers rank 26th in FG%
* 10th in FT frequency
* 19th in turnover frequency
* 22nd in scoring frequency
* 23rd in percentile

some other play type:

* Blazers are in the 97th percentile in PnR ball-handler. That ranks 2nd
* the 62nd percentile in PnR roll-man which ranks 12th
* 48th percentile in isolation which ranks 16th
* 79th percentile in spot-up which ranks 7th

looking at those numbers, considering how good Dame is in PnR and that the Blazers are elite at it, what they might need is a PnR roll-man, or two, that is elite as well

 

[Fairly-Hard]

This is why you post up. And why we should foster those skills in Nurk. If he can get to the level of consistently drawing a double then you have a unique/useful playoff weapon. People can go ahead and point to all of Nurk's obvious flaws but I'm going to go out on a limb and say terry did him no favors and Chauncey will only make him better.

Easy to point the finger at Stotts on this but maybe there was a bit more to it? Terry originally had one of the very best Big man coaches in the league in Kim Hughes. He was fired for telling the truth in a situation regarding Aldridge by Olshey. Olshey was asked numerous times about replacing him and adding another coach to fill that void and always responded indignant about the issue. Then you have Nurk himself. Not only was he weak with the ball in his hands when he got here he has either been injured or out of sorts due to family and covid issues for the last 4 years.
The first season of 20 games ended with the first broken leg issue. The second had 72 games where he was playing well and was happy but ended with a worse broken leg issue. Followed by 8 games the next season and a short 37 games due to broken wrist.
Now Chauncey has him and with no Dame and no CJ and Nurk is a second option with Rogers who is also known to be a good big man coach.

Seems like around here people love to make Terry Stotts a fall guy and that might be partially true but situations are also involved. Stotts was playing to get as many wins as possible in every season he was here. Nurk was injured a bunch and he still has not made it through a full season here without a major setback.

 

[Mr. Robot]

@Fairly-Hard

nurk played 79 games in the 17/18 and was healthy in the 18/19 (72 games) when he broke his leg and hes healthy now too

broken leg and broken wrist are not common injuries (landing on other players foot & knee to the wrist) and i dont think you can consider nurk to be injury prone due to those specific injuries

he had two injuries in denver (knee surgery & ankle injury), which are common injuries and those are type of injuries due to which you can call a player injury prone

 

[Fairly-Hard]

@Fairly-Hard

nurk played 79 games in the 17/18 and was healthy in the 18/19 (72 games) when he broke his leg and hes healthy now too

broken leg and broken wrist are not common injuries (landing on other players foot & knee to the wrist) and i dont think you can consider nurk to be injury prone due to those specific injuries

he had two injuries in denver (knee surgery & ankle injury), which are common injuries and those are type of injuries due to which you can call a player injury prone

So you are saying he had two more "Common" injuries in Denver that affected his numbers as well as a two broken legs and a broken wrist that affected his numbers here?
This is the very definition of "Injury Prone".

Sorry. Lets see him make it a season without an injury? It would be nice to see that coincide with Lillard being healthy as well.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

So you are saying he had two more "Common" injuries in Denver that affected his numbers as well as a two broken legs and a broken wrist that affected his numbers here?
This is the very definition of "Injury Prone".

Sorry. Lets see him make it a season without an injury? It would be nice to see that coincide with Lillard being healthy as well.

Nope. We get to have one or the other, but not both.

 

[Mr. Robot]

So you are saying he had two more "Common" injuries in Denver that affected his numbers as well as a two broken legs and a broken wrist that affected his numbers here?
This is the very definition of "Injury Prone".

Sorry. Lets see him make it a season without an injury? It would be nice to see that coincide with Lillard being healthy as well.

it seems like we disagree on what "injury prone" means

 

[superfly4201]

that seemed more like a catch-&-shoot than a post-up. Maybe a spot-up?

according to NBA.com:

post-up stats: percentage of player's offense - points/possession - percentile:

Myles Turner: 12.7% - 1.16 - 89th percentile (maybe why Portland was interested in trading for him)
E. Freedom: 15.4% - 1.15 - 87th percentile
Biyombo: 10.6% - 1.14 - 87th percentile
Olynyk: 12.4% - 1.13 - 85th percentile
Jokic - 21.1% - 1.11 - 82nd percentile
Embiid: 29.6% - 1.08 - 80th percentile
J. Allen: 14.0% - 1.07 - 77th percentile
Aldridge: 17.2% - 1.06 - 76th percentile
M. Harrell: 19.9% - 1.03 - 71st percentile
Ayton: 21.2% - 1.01 - 68th percentile
Whiteside: 10.4% - 0.98 - 63rd percentile
A. Gordon: 15.8% - 0.97 - 63rd percentile
AD: 17.0% - 0.97 - 61st percentile
Valunciunas: 27.5% - 0.97 - 60th percentile
Jaren Jackson: 12.1% - 0.97 - 59th percentile
E. Mobley: 15.7% - 0.96 - 57th percentile
Giannis: 13.5% - 0.94 - 55th percentile (thought he'd be higher)
Ibaka: 13.4% - 0.94 - 54th percentile
Horford: 13.8% - 0.93 - 53rd percentile
Robin Lopez: 44.2% - 0.92 - 48th percentile
Adebayo: 15.2% - 0.91 - 45th percentile
J. Collins: 18.9% - 0.91 - 44th percentile
C.Wood: 10.0% - 0.90 - 42nd percentile
Porzingas: 22.3% - 0.89 - 39th percentile
Portis: 15.0% - 0.89 - 39th percentile
JaVale: 10.4% - 0.87 - 35th percentile
Sabonis: 16.0% - 0.87 - 34th percentile
Nurkic: 26.7% - 0.85 - 32nd percentile
Poeltl: 10.4% - 0.84 - 31st percentile
Vucevic: 17.4% - 0.84 - 30th percentile
KAT: 15.6% - 0.84 - 29th percentile
Gobert: 5% - 0.82 - 25th percentile (a bit surprising until I remember he gets a lot of lobs and catches at the rim rather than post-ups)

I know Nurkic fans don't like it when I post numbers like this, but these are the numbers. This pretty closely matches what I've seen; passes the eyeball test, IMO. Nurk really is not good at posting up and it makes me wonder why people think he should be given more post-up opportunities

maybe these number should be weighted by frequency or percentage of offense but I don't know how that could be done or even if it would be a valid gauge. And maybe, players like Aaron Gordon and John Collins shouldn't be on this list because they won't be posting up the same people C's post-up. Still, it's post-up offense

Nurkic was worse last season in post-up; only in the 17th percentile. So he has 'improved' but his efficiency in post-up still generally sucks. he shouldn't be posting up as much as he is. He's much better in the PnR where he averages 1.19 ppp vs 0.85 in post-up. He's in the 68thmpercentile in PnR. Not elite but at least it's in the realm of decent efficiency

I want Portland to re-sign Nurkic, if for no other reason that they don't have any good alternative. I don't want them to re-sign Nurkic for too much money and right now I'd draw the line around 15M/year. He is simply not the defensive force he was before he broke his leg, and that was nearly 3 years ago. It does seem to be a balancing act keeping Nurkic happy with his role on offense. But this season, as in past seasons, he ranks well above the median for C's in FGA rate and usage rate, but below the median in overall efficiency

His low percentage has to be chalked up to his errant flippy shots, which I see him doing a lot less these days. When he try’s to get cute around the hoop he misses and doesn’t get calls. When he attacks strong his percentage is much higher and gets more calls. It’s obvious Billups has gotten him to listen and it’s paying off.

 

[wizenheimer]

His low percentage has to be chalked up to his errant flippy shots, which I see him doing a lot less these days. When he try’s to get cute around the hoop he misses and doesn’t get calls. When he attacks strong his percentage is much higher and gets more calls. It’s obvious Billups has gotten him to listen and it’s paying off.

interesting theory, however

his FT rate, by month:

October .444
November .425
December .466
January.485
February .381

his FG% rate by month:

October .537
November .614
December .533
January .510
February .491

his TS% (accounts for FT's), by month:

October .596
November .660
December .585
January .559
February .549

statistically, I do not see the correlation you do. Kind of the opposite in fact since both his FG% and his TS% have steadily declined since November. I'd think if Billups was getting thru to him about shooting style and errant shots, those two trend-lines would be going the other direction

his FT rate did climb steadily since November...until the 8 games in February kind of blew holes in the theory. Maybe he'll turn that back around in March. Again though, if his FT rate progression was due to taking higher percentage shots, his FG% and TS% would not have gone the opposite directions of his FT rates...IMO

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Nope. We get to have one or the other, but not both.

The moon will move to the 7th house and Jupiter will align with Mars at some point again.

 

[superfly4201]

interesting theory, however



his FT rate did climb steadily since November...until the 8 games in February kind of blew holes in the theory. Maybe he'll turn that back around in March. Again though, if his FT rate progression was due to taking higher percentage shots, his FG% and TS% would not have gone the opposite directions of his FT rates...IMO

My assessment is purely based one his play at the rim, not FT's and 3's (which if he never took another 3 I would be happy). His 2 home games against ORL and MIL were terrible which would account for his fall in the last 8 games...small sample size.

 

[wizenheimer]

My assessment is purely based one his play at the rim, not FT's and 3's (which if he never took another 3 I would be happy). His 2 home games against ORL and MIL were terrible which would account for his fall in the last 8 games...small sample size.

but you were offering possible reasons for his poor efficiency in low-post offense, which is what I was detailing. There's other ways to get shots at the rim than low-post

 

[superfly4201]

but you were offering possible reasons for his poor efficiency in low-post offense, which is what I was detailing. There's other ways to get shots at the rim than low-post

Sorry for any confusion, I was referencing to his low post shots. He would try to get cute and flip shots up around the hoop, ineffectively. I see him now being more forceful at the rim with much more success and hope he continues.