Nurkic is our 2nd best Player, and it's not even close

[julius]

That's MY main trouble.

Your main problem is that CJ got his?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Your main problem is that CJ got his?

CJ got HCP's what?!?

 

[blue9]

TS%: CJ .542....Nurkic .555

This is actually pretty good for CJ (or really bad for Nurk...probably this one). Typically Cs/PFs should have a significantly higher FG% than guards, due to mostly taking higher-percentage shots.

 

[tester551]

This is actually pretty good for CJ (or really bad for Nurk...probably this one). Typically Cs/PFs should have a significantly higher FG% than guards, due to mostly taking higher-percentage shots.

TS% offsets that a bit (not completely though). It accounts for the extra points for a 3 and for FT.

It levels the playing field a bit to better see who is more efficient at scoring.

 

[blue9]

TS% offsets that a bit (not completely though). It accounts for the extra points for a 3 and for FT.

It levels the playing field a bit to better see who is more efficient at scoring.

For sure. But I still expect a larger disparity when comparing a SG to a C.

 

[wizenheimer]

This is actually pretty good for CJ (or really bad for Nurk...probably this one). Typically Cs/PFs should have a significantly higher FG% than guards, due to mostly taking higher-percentage shots.

truthfully, it's not a good mark for either player considering the league average is around 55%

some perspective:

* among NBA SG's, CJ ranks 33rd out of 76 in TS%. He's tied with Nik Stauskas in shooting efficiency. Average ranking would be 38th with CJ at 33

* if you expand the ranking to include PG's CJ is tied for 65th among 153 guards . Average ranking would be 76-77 with CJ at 65. So, he's a little above average as a shooter among his peers

* meanwhile, among 44 C's, Nurkic ranks 32nd. So yeah, he's well below average among his peers.

bottom line is that CJ averages 1.16 points/shot while Nurkic averages 1.26 points/shot. Further, because Nurk's draw-foul rate is much higher than CJ's there are ancillary benefits to Nurk taking more shots and CJ taking less

 

[blue9]

truthfully, it's not a good mark for either player considering the league average is around 55%

Ha - well there ya go!

 

[beast blazer]

wut?

PER: CJ 16.4....Nurkic 22.9 (CJ's career high is 19.9 but his average is 17.1)
TS%: CJ .542....Nurkic .555
FT Rate: CJ .170....Nurkic .441
assist/36: CJ 2.7....Nurkic 3.9
turnover/36: CJ 1.7....Nurkic 3.1
winshares/48: CJ .093....Nurkic .173
box plus/minus: CJ -0.6....Nurkic +5.1
value over replacement: CJ 0.4....Nurkic 1.8
Real plus/minus: CJ 0.21....Nurkic 3.59

clearly, one player is outperforming the other and has a much higher impact. The only area CJ has any advantage is turnovers. But CJ doesn't get whistled for moving screens or player control fouls. And unlike CJ, Nurkic has shown himself to be a more than willing passer and he's usually making those passes from more congested areas of the floor

and CJ fans keep saying things like CJ will "bounce back". Cj has already bounced back to his norms. The way he's playing now is the way he has played since he was elevated to starter. CJ had one year when his numbers were all much higher than his norms; but that season, 2016-17, is looking more and more like an outlier...a perfect storm of favorable conditions for him. The scouting book on CJ is more comprehensive now and I question if CJ had the depth of skills to overcome the way teams are playing him since that 16-17 season.

that could even explain, partially, why his 3 point FG% has cratered this season. It looks to me like defenses are sticking close to CJ around the 3 point line, essentially conceding driving opportunities to him. Ir could easily be that teams have decided that CJ on the dribble is not a threat to swing a game from a loss to a win, or vice-versa

Jesus Christ. Nurk has more assists per 36 as a center who handles the ball much less? Cj must be one of the worst passing guard of all time.

 

[CupWizier]

Jesus Christ. Nurk has more assists per 36 as a center who handles the ball much less? Cj must be one of the worst passing guard of all time.

not even close, but just for your information, Klay Thompson averages less assists per game than McCollum this year as does Eric Gordon ,Jeremy Lamb as well as Wesley Mathews and Buddy Hield.

 

[Natebishop3]

not even close, but just for your information, Klay Thompson averages less assists per game than McCollum this year as does Eric Gordon ,Jeremy Lamb as well as Wesley Mathews and Buddy Hield.

I doubt that Klay handles the ball as much as CJ.

 

[CupWizier]

I doubt that Klay handles the ball as much as CJ.

He has never averaged as many assists as McCollum since both have been starting. If it makes you feel better to eliminate Thompson that's fine as I have already proven that McCollum isn't one of the worst passing sg in the history of the NBA. What's also interesting is offensively the career stats between McCollum and Thompson are fairly close. One thing to factor in is that GS has been one of the best offensive teams in the history of the game. You would think that would lead to more assists. Passing to a Steph Curry and Kevin Durant is a nice luxury for any teammate to have.

 

[beast blazer]

not even close, but just for your information, Klay Thompson averages less assists per game than McCollum this year as does Eric Gordon ,Jeremy Lamb as well as Wesley Mathews and Buddy Hield.

Keep trying Jennifer

 

[PtldPlatypus]

He has never averaged as many assists as McCollum since both have been starting. If it makes you feel better to eliminate Thompson that's fine as I have already proven that McCollum isn't one of the worst passing sg in the history of the NBA. What's also interesting is offensively the career stats between McCollum and Thompson are fairly close. One thing to factor in is that GS has been one of the best offensive teams in the history of the game. You would think that would lead to more assists. Passing to a Steph Curry and Kevin Durant is a nice luxury for any teammate to have.

There have been 10 guards in NBA history with a season playing 30+ mpg, with a usage rate of 26% or above, and an assist rate of 13% or below. Gervin did it 4 times. Michael Redd, Kevin Martin, and Klay Thompson are the only ones since 2000 (3 seasons each). So far this year, CJ is poised to become the eleventh NBA guard to join that exclusive yet somewhat ignominious club.

http://bkref.com/tiny/qKJCL

Based on that, it's actually arguable that this season, he is playing like one of the worst passing guards in NBA history.

 

[bobf]

Yes, not even close. Nurk is closer to our best player (he's not!) than to 3rd best.
PS. Aminu is our 3rd best player.

 

[wizenheimer]

not even close, but just for your information, Klay Thompson averages less assists per game than McCollum this year as does Eric Gordon ,Jeremy Lamb as well as Wesley Mathews and Buddy Hield.

c'mon man...that's just ridiculous

Klay plays with Curry, Durant, and Green. Those three average 18.1 assists/game which is only 3 less then the entire Blazer team averages. Klay's role is to catch and shoot. CJ has to have the ball in his hands 5 times as long as Klay does...dribble dribble dribble

Gordon plays with Harden and CP3. Those guys dominate the ball and the offense...and Gordon plays off the bench

the other 3 guys I'm not even going to justify or rationalize, one way or the other, how they play or the roles they fill for their teams. But congratulations on searching long enough to find SG's who may or may not be worse at finding teammates than CJ is

but let's go back to the CJ/Klay example. Obviously, the Warriors have no need to have Klay act as a playmaker; they have that covered big-time. But Portland is so desperate for someone other than Dame to carry the burden of running the offense, they "have" to play Turner 25 minutes a game. And this isn't something new this year. The Blazers have desperately needed that 2nd playmaker since the Aldridge team broke up, and CJ's response to his team's obvious need has to become more of a black hole every single season as shown by the progression of his assist average:
2015-16 4.3 2016-17 3.6 2017-18 3.4 2018-19 2.5

sure....we've been hammering CJ a lot around here and probably some of it is unfair...or at least missing some context. But when it comes to CJ with the ball in his hands consistently calling his own offense over that of more efficient teammates, all the criticism is deserved.

 

[bobf]

And I'm staying with my prediction from a few months ago, that Nurk will end up being the best center in the NBA.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

And I'm staying with my prediction from a few months ago, that Nurk will end up being the best center in the NBA.

He's got a ways to go before he can be listed ahead of Embiid, Jokic, Gobert, probably Towns, Capela, Vucevic, even Gasol really...but we can keep holding out hope.

 

[bobf]

He's got a ways to go before he can be listed ahead of Embiid, Jokic, Gobert, probably Towns, Capela, Vucevic, even Gasol really...but we can keep holding out hope.

RPM has only Jokic and Vucevic ahead of him this year. That's a small sample for RPM but we'll see how the long run goes. I feel like Nurk is improving greatly on offense and already elite defensively. Very high IQ. Hope his FT% holds up as that's big deal for someone who gets fouled as much as he does.

 

[CupWizier]

There have been 10 guards in NBA history with a season playing 30+ mpg, with a usage rate of 26% or above, and an assist rate of 13% or below. Gervin did it 4 times. Michael Redd, Kevin Martin, and Klay Thompson are the only ones since 2000 (3 seasons each). So far this year, CJ is poised to become the eleventh NBA guard to join that exclusive yet somewhat ignominious club.

http://bkref.com/tiny/qKJCL

Based on that, it's actually arguable that this season, he is playing like one of the worst passing guards in NBA history.

Boy, those are some horrible shooting guards on your list.

 

[Natebishop3]

He has never averaged as many assists as McCollum since both have been starting. If it makes you feel better to eliminate Thompson that's fine as I have already proven that McCollum isn't one of the worst passing sg in the history of the NBA. What's also interesting is offensively the career stats between McCollum and Thompson are fairly close. One thing to factor in is that GS has been one of the best offensive teams in the history of the game. You would think that would lead to more assists. Passing to a Steph Curry and Kevin Durant is a nice luxury for any teammate to have.

I'm not going to pretend like I watch a lot of Warriors basketball, but I always thought of Klay as a catch-and-shoot type of guard. Or spot up and shoot.

 

[illmatic99]

There have been 10 guards in NBA history with a season playing 30+ mpg, with a usage rate of 26% or above, and an assist rate of 13% or below. Gervin did it 4 times. Michael Redd, Kevin Martin, and Klay Thompson are the only ones since 2000 (3 seasons each). So far this year, CJ is poised to become the eleventh NBA guard to join that exclusive yet somewhat ignominious club.

http://bkref.com/tiny/qKJCL

Based on that, it's actually arguable that this season, he is playing like one of the worst passing guards in NBA history.

Digging into this further, it looks like CJ is trending worse.

This year, nearly a third of his passes are to Dame, and he's only getting half an assist out of nearly 9 passes a game he makes to Dame.



Last year, the targets of his passes were a bit more varied.


This was the year prior


Key takeaway is a marked increase in frequency of passes to Dame. And we know Dame likes to dribble and create his own offense. That means the passer doesn't get an assist. Maybe that's why CJ's ast% is so pitiful-- a deliberate change in the offense that he can't control. Even Jusuf is expanding his game and passing more himself rather than just finishing on the P&R.

 

[CupWizier]

c'mon man...that's just ridiculous

Klay plays with Curry, Durant, and Green. Those three average 18.1 assists/game which is only 3 less then the entire Blazer team averages. Klay's role is to catch and shoot. CJ has to have the ball in his hands 5 times as long as Klay does...dribble dribble dribble

Gordon plays with Harden and CP3. Those guys dominate the ball and the offense...and Gordon plays off the bench

the other 3 guys I'm not even going to justify or rationalize, one way or the other, how they play or the roles they fill for their teams. But congratulations on searching long enough to find SG's who may or may not be worse at finding teammates than CJ is

but let's go back to the CJ/Klay example. Obviously, the Warriors have no need to have Klay act as a playmaker; they have that covered big-time. But Portland is so desperate for someone other than Dame to carry the burden of running the offense, they "have" to play Turner 25 minutes a game. And this isn't something new this year. The Blazers have desperately needed that 2nd playmaker since the Aldridge team broke up, and CJ's response to his team's obvious need has to become more of a black hole every single season as shown by the progression of his assist average:
2015-16 4.3 2016-17 3.6 2017-18 3.4 2018-19 2.5

sure....we've been hammering CJ a lot around here and probably some of it is unfair...or at least missing some context. But when it comes to CJ with the ball in his hands consistently calling his own offense over that of more efficient teammates, all the criticism is deserved.

Nope.

Digging into this further, it looks like CJ is trending worse.

This year, nearly a third of his passes are to Dame, and he's only getting half an assist out of nearly 9 passes a game he makes to Dame.

View attachment 24046

Last year, the targets of his passes were a bit more varied.
View attachment 24047

This was the year prior
View attachment 24048

Key takeaway is a marked increases in frequency of passes to Dame. And we know Dame likes to dribble and create his own offense. That means the passer doesn't get an assist. Maybe that's why CJ's ast% is so pitiful-- a deliberate change in the offense that he can't control. Even Jusuf is expanding his game and passing more himself rather than just finishing on the P&R.

Has a lot to do with Lillaed not being a catch and shoot type player. He usually shoots off the dribble or drives to the basket.. That doesn't lead to assists

 

[illmatic99]

Has a lot to do with Lillaed not being a catch and shoot type player. He usually shoots off the dribble or drives to the basket.. That doesn't lead to assists

I know, I said the exact same thing.

 

[Labinot41]

The Ongoing Evolution of Jusuf Nurkic

https://www.thespax.com/nba/the-ongoing-evolution-of-jusuf-nurkic/

 

[CupWizier]

FIFY

Hi my name is Jennifer

Nice to meet you Jennifer.

 

[Scalma]

The Ongoing Evolution of Jusuf Nurkic

https://www.thespax.com/nba/the-ongoing-evolution-of-jusuf-nurkic/

From the article:

If we take a look at the NBA’s TPA metric, Nurkic’s value is made even more clear. It calculates offensive points Added and defensive Points Saved based on adjusting offensive box plus / minus (OBPM) and defensive box plus / minus (DBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. The sum of these two values is finalized as Total Points Added. Among those who haven’t reached their sixth season in the NBA, Nurkic’s 108.67 total points added is the fourth-highest this year. In similar minutes, Nurkic has more total points added than Kawhi Leonard, Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and DeMar DeRozan. All of these players have been on an All-NBA team at one point in their respective careers.

 

[Scalma]

Generally speaking, European players all have great fundamentals. That’s a credit to the coaching overseas. When euros bust it’s usually mental, often times a product of being overmatched physically, and/or having trouble assimilating to life in America. Nurkic not only is bigger than everyone, but what really separates him is his supreme confidence in himself. He doesn’t give a fuuuuck and isn’t scared of anyone. He was like that in Denver when he wasn’t even established.

What we’re seeing now is everything kind of coming together. I hope Stotts keeps running the offense through him, even when adversity hits, and it will hit, because it hits everyone. Just please god don’t revert back to hopscotch mccollum when it does. There aren’t ten centers with more all around talent than Nurkic. There may not even be five.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The Ongoing Evolution of Jusuf Nurkic

https://www.thespax.com/nba/the-ongoing-evolution-of-jusuf-nurkic/

Nice article, but this sentence is completely untrue:

Nurkic was viewed as a locker room cancer who was far too undeveloped to get significant minutes over Nikola Jokic.

As an oldy-but-goodie, it's really weird to see a screen set (in the first video) so freaking far from the basket - it's really a new NBA.

 

[tester551]

Generally speaking, European players all have great fundamentals. That’s a credit to the coaching overseas. When euros bust it’s usually mental, often times a product of being overmatched physically, and/or having trouble assimilating to life in America. Nurkic not only is bigger than everyone, but what really separates him is his supreme confidence in himself. He doesn’t give a fuuuuck and isn’t scared of anyone. He was like that in Denver when he wasn’t even established.

Careful..... Some may interpret that as a slight of the AAU system in America which could be seen as racist.

 

[Scalma]

Careful..... Some may interpret that as a slight of the AAU system in America which could be seen as racist.

I’ll say this; Cuban wasn’t wrong.