Obama Opens Up 4 Point Lead in Virginia

[Денг Гордон]

Obama Opens Up 6 Point Lead in Virginia

McCain led 49 to 47 in the last poll done by Survey USA, at the height of his convention bounce. Obama now leads 50 to 46.

The Rasmussen polls have been in line with the Survey USA polls in Virginia so far, so a Rasmussen poll will likely show the same thing when it comes out.

Obama is completely obliterating McCain in the African American vote, as expected, but is also doing very well in the Hispanic vote in Virginia. It also looks like Virginia is a very pro-choice state, which is helping Obama, and the Palin pick, once it sank in to a lot of those pro-choice people, what she actually stood for, went behind Obama.

Also important, because this marks the first time Obama is over 50 in the Virginia polls. The interesting thing about Virginia, is that during the convention bounce, and McCain's good periods, Obama never lost any of his vote. It was just some of those undecideds shifting to McCain, while Obama has been holding a good voting bloc consistently.

This is especially good news for Obama campaign, because he tends to under poll. Throughout the primaries, he was being underestimated in the polls. This is because of his great ground game provides a big bounce, maybe 3 points on election day, that the polling isn't picking up. This number in the Democratic Primaries, was even larger. I know, I know everyone has heard the Bradley effect, blah blah blah, people lying, saying they support Obama. But Obama has een underperforming in pre-election polls. It is in the exit polls where he was overperforming. This is quite simple imo. In the exit polls, where these people are face to face with the pollster, rather with a bit of anonimity through the telephone, they are more apt to lie in person, as not to appear racist to a real person.

If Obama takes Virginia, he wins the election, simple as that.

 

[Real]

If Obama takes Virginia, he wins the election, simple as that.

Not if McCain takes Pennsylvania.

Obama had a 9 point lead at one point, now it's down to 2-3 points.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Not if McCain takes Pennsylvania.

Obama had a 9 point lead at one point, now it's down to 2-3 points.

McCain's not taking Pennsylvania.

Or to put it more wisely, in the grand scheme of things, McCain taking Pennsylvania won't matter much. It's not a very good tipping point state. If McCain wins Pennsylvania, he will have already won the election as part of a bigger blow out.

If Obama is winning Virginia, McCain won't be winning Pennsylvania. A 3 point lead during McCain's convention bounce is a strong indication that Obama will win the state.

I think it is stupid for the McCain campaign to be playing offense. Michigan and Pennsylvania are nice pipe dreams, but they aren't happening, the same way Florida isn't happening for Obama.

It is quite simple, McCain has to play defensive, and play electoral math. He will have already ceded Iowa, so Obama is up to 259 EV's already. So by defensive, McCain just can only allow Obama 9 EV's. So looking at the tipping point states of Obama of Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, those are it. It comes down to those 5 states for the McCain campaign, and it's all about playing defense from now on. They can't let go of Virginia or Ohio at all. Then they just need to hold on to 2 of the 3 Southwests states, and McCain will have victory.

There's not really much more to the election than McCain playing defense in those 5 states, and Obama playing offense in those states trying to come to some combination of at least 10 EV's, preferably 11.

 

[Денг Гордон]

I'm a little confused by MSNBC's map. Is Chuck Todd high? They have Wisconsin as a toss up. He stated because Obama isn't polling above 45-46 percent....yet the 538 snapshot of the state shows Obama at 49.1. Then they have New Mexico listed as a leans Obama now. That state only has 47.4 snapshot on 538, and that is only 0.2 points ahead of McCain.

With Obama's ability to move in Chicago people into Wisconsin so easily, I just can't see Wisconsin being too close.

 

[Real]

I don't see New Mexico going to McCain either.

Pennsylvania could be part of a big win for McCain, but this campaign has been pretty unorthodox so far and it's worked to their benefit for the most part, so I don't think them trying to win in PA to win the election would be a big shock.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=19322

Siena New York Poll:​

With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue
Obama’s Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in JuneObama Seen As Stronger Than McCain on 4 of 6 Issues;
Voters See McCain As Better Than Obama on 4 of 6 of Attributes

​

Loudonville, NY. Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

 

[44Thrilla]

My biggest issue with these polls is how they target "likely" voters, when Obama has proven his ability to get "unlikely" voters to the voting booths. I'd be interested in finding out how these polls determine which voters are likely, and which are not.

 

[Denny Crane]

My biggest issue with these polls is how they target "likely" voters, when Obama has proven his ability to get "unlikely" voters to the voting booths. I'd be interested in finding out how these polls determine which voters are likely, and which are not.

"Do you intend to vote this time?"
"Did you vote last time?"

 

[huevonkiller]

Penn and NY are locks for O; this is as low as Barry can be. When McCain gets that 0.1 % lead or whatever the hell it is, then bother me.

 

[Denny Crane]

What it means is that McCain can go on the offense and make Obama spend time and money on a state that should be a lock.

 

[huevonkiller]

Good thing Barry can make it rain whenever he wants to. :[

 

[Denny Crane]

To bad he can't clone himself and be in two places at the same time. Money can't buy that.

 

[huevonkiller]

Money buys everything. :O

 

[44Thrilla]

"Do you intend to vote this time?"
"Did you vote last time?"

If that's really all it is, then election polls are the most unscientific things ever.

 

[Denny Crane]

If that's really all it is, then election polls are the most unscientific things ever.

They can compare the answers with past results for accuracy.

There was a big stink in 2004 about how the pollsters weren't counting the cell phone users and how they were all going to vote for Kerry. Probably better to have some science and math on your side

 

[Denny Crane]

The most important differences worth noting.

• All except the CBS/New York Times survey try to decide whether individual respondents qualify as likely voters or not. Only CBS/NYT models likely voters by weighting respondents by their probability of voting.
• Thirteen survey organizations (ABC/Washington Post, AP-IPSOS, ARG, CBS/New York Times, Gallup, Harris, LA Times, Marist, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, Pew, Quinnipiac, TIPP, Time) ask vote questions of all registered voters and later apply screen questions to select likely voters. These organizations often report results for both registered and likely voters. Most of the others (Battleground, Democracy Corps, ICR, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and TIPP) typically define likely voters with screen questions and ask the vote question only of those who pass the screen. The Fox/Opinion Dynamics has alternated between screens for registered and likely voters.
• Fourteen survey organizations use some sort of self-reported measure of past voting as part of their model or screen. These include ABC Washington Post, AP-IPSOS, ARG, CBS/New York Times, Democracy Corps, FOX/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Harris, LA Times, Newsweek, Pew, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen and Time. The others do not.
• Seven surveys (ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, LA Times, Newsweek, Pew, Quinnipiac and Time) use models that emulate the key feature of the famous Gallup model. They aim for a specific "cut-off" percentage - a proportion of likely voters among adults that corresponds to the expected turnout among likely voters. Most of the others do not aim for a specific "cut-off" percentage.
• Four surveys routinely weight by party as part of their likely voter model: Battleround, Rasmussen, TIPP and ABC/Washington Post (only during October and then only partially). The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll sometimes weights by party, but on an ad hoc basis. The Insider Advantage survey will weight by self-reported party registration in states that register by party.

 

[Real]

There was a report on Drudge a week ago that said Obama wasn't even close to predicted fundraising numbers.

If I'm correct, McCain is not as far as it may seem from Obama $ wise.

 

[44Thrilla]

Hillary will make NY a lock for Barack whenever he finally decides to guarantee her a cabinet position.

 

[Denny Crane]

Obama's got more hard money than McCain by a long shot. McCain gets $84M of public money, Obama just raised $66M last month alone.

The RNC has a huge war chest, though. If they figure out how to use it right, they can help mitigate the difference.

 

[MARIS61]

When the dust clears this will be a one-sided Obama win.

Take back America!

 

[Денг Гордон]

Obama's got more hard money than McCain by a long shot. McCain gets $84M of public money, Obama just raised $66M last month alone.

The RNC has a huge war chest, though. If they figure out how to use it right, they can help mitigate the difference.

He has $87 million on hand right now. It's amazing he has more on hand money right now than McCain has had since the end of the RNC. I can only imagine that the fund raising will ramp up even more as the election nears. A $100 million month would be great news.

It doesn't seem like Obama is spending his money too much right now. Definitely a lot less than McCain at this point in the race. I think Obama is just saving his money, and he's going to just go all out from the first debate on.

He should have around $200 million to spend over the final stretch of this election.

 

[44Thrilla]

When the dust clears this will be a one-sided Obama win.

Take back America!

I hope you're right.

And welcome to S2.

 

[Denny Crane]

He has $87 million on hand right now. It's amazing he has more on hand money right now than McCain has had since the end of the RNC. I can only imagine that the fund raising will ramp up even more as the election nears. A $100 million month would be great news.

It doesn't seem like Obama is spending his money too much right now. Definitely a lot less than McCain at this point in the race. I think Obama is just saving his money, and he's going to just go all out from the first debate on.

He should have around $200 million to spend over the final stretch of this election.

I see Obama and McCain ads constantly on TV here, especially the local channels. I'm sure they're spending quite a bit on those. On the dish channels, too.

 

[44Thrilla]

I see Obama and McCain ads constantly on TV here, especially the local channels. I'm sure they're spending quite a bit on those. On the dish channels, too.

The Boston stations are running Obama and McCain ads like crazy, since most of NH voters live in the Boston TV market.

 

[Real]

September 16, 2008 - 6:31am
Quinnipiac poll: Obama has razor-thin lead in N.J.; McCain trails by just 3 points
By Editor
Category: PresidentTags: John McCain, Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, Joe Biden, Clay Richards, poll, Quinnipiac, Marist, FDU, Fairleigh Dickinson, Gannett, Monmouth

The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state's fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters. Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.

This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign. A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points.

“The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

McCain's surge has come primarily from white voters, the poll says. White voters back McCain 56%-36% -- up from 50%-42% in August, while Black voters, by a 93%-7% margin, are voting for Obama -- up from 94%-1%. McCain leads among men (53%-40%), while Obama is ahead 54%-38% among women. But white women back McCain 50%-42% (46%-44% in August). Among independents, the lead has shifted from Obama (45%-42%0 to McCain (47%-43%).

In New Jersey, Obama has a 56%-34% favorable rating, while McCain is at 56%-35%. GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is at 42%-32%, while Joe Biden, the Democratic VP candidate, is at 48%-25%. Nearly six out of ten New Jersey voters (58%) say McCain's choice of Palin was a good one, while 59% say Obama made a good pick in Biden.

“In addition to the Palin bounce, Republicans seem to be scoring points with their attacks on the Obama tax plan,” Richards said.

The economy is the most important issue for New Jersey voters, followed by Iraq (13%), terrorism(10%), health care (9%), and energy policy (8%). New Jerseyans say Obama has a better understanding of the economy (48%-43%), but that McCain better understands foreign policy (64%-27%).

By a 32%-28% margin, N.J. voters say they will be better off if Obama is elected. But more than half (54%) say their taxes will go up if Obama is elected, compared to 34 percent who expect a tax hike in a McCain administration. More than four out of ten voters (44%) believe McCain’s claim that Obama will raise taxes on most American families, while 40% say Obama’s claim that he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families.

"This is a very strong poll for Senator McCain and Governor Palin. But polls go up and down and we are staying focused on our grass roots door to door campaign," said State Sen. Bill Baroni (R-Hamilton), McCain's New Jersey campaign chairman. "This poll shows two things. First, New Jerseyans are clearly seeing that Senator McCain and Governor Palin are the nations leading reformers at a time that Washington deperately needs reform. And second, that our grass roots door to door campaign, is clearly connecting with New Jersey voters."

Baroni predicts "a close election night in New Jersey."

"The recent series of polls, all showing Barack Obama leading, nonetheless reminds New Jersey Democrats we have much work to do to be sucessful in November," said Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman. "With so much at stake -- the economy, the war, healthcare for the uninsured -- Democrats will deliver the state for Barack Obama with room to spare."

Andrew Poag, the Communications Director of Obama's New Jersey campaign, agrees.

“As our unprecedented grassroots voter outreach program indicates, the enthusiasm for Barack Obama here in New Jersey is overwhelming. One reason so many New Jerseyans are volunteering in such great numbers is that they know another four years of the failed George W. Bush policies that John McCain is proposing won’t fix this economy and won’t bring us the change we need," said Poag.

From September 10 – 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,187 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

http://www.politickernj.com/editor/...azor-thin-lead-nj-mccain-trails-just-3-points

 

[RipCity]

Hillary will make NY a lock for Barack whenever he finally decides to guarantee her a cabinet position.

I highly doubt Hillary wants to be associated with Obama. She did her part to "unite" the party at the DNC but I imagine she realizes the epic failure an Obama administration will be and will not want to be tied to him. She's set herself up perfectly to run in 2012 and won't want to risk too close of an association with Barack.

 

[Денг Гордон]

I highly doubt Hillary wants to be associated with Obama. She did her part to "unite" the party at the DNC but I imagine she realizes the epic failure an Obama administration will be and will not want to be tied to him. She's set herself up perfectly to run in 2012 and won't want to risk too close of an association with Barack.

Campaigning for him doesn't do much to associate her with him for a future election.

And my guess, if she runs in 2016 (or 2012 if Obama only chooses one term), she will likely want to be associated. Take on a ton of black support from Obama, rally the feminazi's, and she will be on her way to an easy victory.

 

[RipCity]

Campaigning for him doesn't do much to associate her with him for a future election.

And my guess, if she runs in 2016 (or 2012 if Obama only chooses one term), she will likely want to be associated. Take on a ton of black support from Obama, rally the feminazi's, and she will be on her way to an easy victory.

Not campaigning for him would probably have the same effect, she'd be considered a sore loser and unwilling to work for the party which would be catastrophic, however being a Cabinet member would be a different story.

Imo there is no way Obama would secure his parties nomination for a second term, that is IF he's elected, remember theres 49 days left and contrary to what MSNBC will have you believe, this isn't over by any means.

 

[huevonkiller]

Not campaigning for him would probably have the same effect, she'd be considered a sore loser and unwilling to work for the party which would be catastrophic, however being a Cabinet member would be a different story.

Imo there is no way Obama would secure his parties nomination for a second term, that is IF he's elected, remember theres 49 days left and contrary to what MSNBC will have you believe, this isn't over by any means.

Hillary wanted VP, and she would have made the election a lock for Obama.

 

[RipCity]

Hillary wanted VP, and she would have made the election a lock for Obama.

Source?