Obama Opens Up 4 Point Lead in Virginia

[huevonkiller]

Source?

You're serious? I don't like getting sources in order to prove the sky has clouds.

 

[RipCity]

Uhh, yeah I was. I haven't seen anything that has said that other than pure speculation. Not being a smart ass, I'd like to see it if it's out there.

 

[huevonkiller]

Uhh, yeah I was. I haven't seen anything that has said that other than pure speculation. Not being a smart ass, I'd like to see it if it's out there.

It was on all three major news networks that they met on a few occasions and spoke about vetting Bill/Hillary(which they used as a pretext against her). For example, Biden wanted to be VP but he couldn't shout it from the rooftops before Obama had made his decision, it would be bad for the party. But to anyone following the process, it was quite obvious Hill wanted the position.

 

[porky88]

Regarding to a Wisconsin comment in this thread. I live in Wisconsin. This is arguably the closest race in the country. It was I think in 04 so it's a clear toss up. It's pretty split here and it's always has been. Not saying I know for sure or anything but that's just the feeling you get in the area and the state.

Thing about Virginia and Ohio. Obama and the democrats have registered hundreds of thousands of new voters in those two states. I heard this on the news. All this polling is kind of full of flaws since they all might not take that into account. If those voters turnout then Obama could win by a good margin in both states. Virginia is so tough though because it hasn't gone blue since LBJ.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Regarding to a Wisconsin comment in this thread. I live in Wisconsin. This is arguably the closest race in the country. It was I think in 04 so it's a clear toss up. It's pretty split here and it's always has been. Not saying I know for sure or anything but that's just the feeling you get in the area and the state.

Thing about Virginia and Ohio. Obama and the democrats have registered hundreds of thousands of new voters in those two states. I heard this on the news. All this polling is kind of full of flaws since they all might not take that into account. If those voters turnout then Obama could win by a good margin in both states. Virginia is so tough though because it hasn't gone blue since LBJ.

Obama's organization will easily get the vote out in large numbers in Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha, and Madison, that he shouldn't have too much trouble beating McCain.

 

[porky88]

Obama's organization will easily get the vote out in large numbers in Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha, and Madison, that he shouldn't have too much trouble beating McCain.

Correct. The southern part of the state is mostly democratic but we're still a really rural state and a lot of those people are republican. I think Obama will probably win the state but it's going to be close.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Correct. The southern part of the state is mostly democratic but we're still a really rural state and a lot of those people are republican. I think Obama will probably win the state but it's going to be close.

It'll be close, but not close. I think Obama will win by at least 3 or 4 points. It won't be close like 2000 (third closest state) and 2004 (closest state).

Although Obama underpolled in Wisconsin during the primary season, so it is also possible that Obama is getting underpolled again during the general election. Obama's just has great organization in Wisconsin, and I think that "rockstar" tour he did of Wisconsin for a week (and then multiple repeat visits since) has helped him a bunch in the state.

 

[Денг Гордон]

The big whammy of all polls came out today from SurveyUSA. SurveyUSA is the 2nd most reliable pollster behind Selzer and Co.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7bd0cddb-f8eb-4a1d-9cbd-3a481b87bf37

Obama 51 McCain 45 in Virginia.

Male: Obama 46 McCain 50
Female: Obama 55 McCain 39
White: Obama 40 McCain 55
Black: Obama 86 McCain 14
Republican: Obama 10 McCain 87
Democrat: Obama 91 McCain 8
Independents: Obama 45 McCain 48

Obama, so far has been able to unify Democrats in a way that John Kerry and Al Gore couldn't. The consolidation of democrats behind Obama has been what has been behind this big national turnaround, and I think Hillary Clinton is helping a ton in that department.

The bad news for McCain, has to be that blacks number. That number is going to become at least 90% for Obama on election day, so Obama's lead is being undercut in this poll as the result of a reverse-Bradley effect.

 

[Денг Гордон]

McCain on the Palin pick: DOH!

ABC News / Washington Post
9/18-21/08; 857 RV, 698 LV, 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(ABC story, results; Post story, results)

Virginia

Likely Voters:
Obama 49, McCain 46

Registered Voters:
Obama 50, McCain 44

 

[Real]

Election 2008: Virginia Presidential Election
McCain Ahead Again in Virginia, 50% to 48%
Monday, September 22, 2008
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John McCain has regained his modest lead in Virginia, where he now bests Barack Obama 50% to 48% in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

A week ago, the race was tied at 48% apiece. Two weeks ago, it was McCain 49% and Obama 47%.

Neither candidate has led the race by more than two percentage points since June, making the historically Republican state one of the biggest toss-ups in this year’s election. However, this marks the first time McCain has reached the 50% level since March.

In the survey taken Sunday night, McCain has regained the lead among unaffiliated voters he had two weeks ago. He now tops Obama 54% to 41% among this group of voters.

Men favor McCain by 12 points. Women give Obama the edge by seven (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 52%. While 41% rate the Republican unfavorably, 45% say the same of the Democrat.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel will jointly release a series of battleground state polls every Monday night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. See overview of all polling released this week with results from Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain is very close in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll which is updated every morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

In Virginia, over 40% of voters say they would be comfortable if McCain or Obama and their respective running mates are elected. But Obama and Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin make voters most uncomfortable. Forty-five percent (45%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Palin as vice president, and 42% say that of Obama as president.

Forty-nine percent (49%) trust McCain in general more than Obama, but nearly as many (45%) disagree. Voters are nearly evenly divided when asked who they trust more on the economy and jobs. But McCain has a 56% to 40% margin in terms of trust on national security issues.

Just over half of voters (51%) say they would ask advice from McCain if they had to make the toughest decision of their lives versus 40% who say they would ask Obama.

For 45% of Virginia voters, economic issues are the most important thing in this election, while 22% say national security is their chief concern.
Eighty-one percent (81%) say they are certain now who they are going to vote for in November.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a 52.0 % chance of carrying the state again this fall. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004. But at the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as a “Toss Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Governor Tim Kaine, who was on Obama’s short list of possible running mates, gets good or excellent marks for job performance from 47%, while 20% say he’s doing a poor job. These numbers are identical to a week ago.

George W. Bush carried Virginia in both the 2000 and 2004 elections. Now, however, 36% rate his job performance as good or excellent, while 48% give him poor marks.

Link

 

[Denny Crane]

^^^ If it wasn't on DailyKOS, it can't be a good poll!

(Not that Fox is any better as a biased source)

 

[Денг Гордон]

Nothing like a good Rasmussen small sample size poll : D

If you look at the internals of that poll, you can tell it is a poorly conducted survey. That poll has McCain as more favorable towards remedy the economy, which goes against every other poll, and even with that, Obama is still only down 2 points.

 

[Real]

^^^ If it wasn't on DailyKOS, it can't be a good poll!

(Not that Fox is any better as a biased source)

Fox and DailyKos are two totally different media outlets.

 

[Real]

Nothing like a good Rasmussen small sample size poll : D

If you look at the internals of that poll, you can tell it is a poorly conducted survey. That poll has McCain as more favorable towards remedy the economy, which goes against every other poll, and even with that, Obama is still only down 2 points.

So I'm assuming it fails the BG7 test for accuracy?

 

[Денг Гордон]

So I'm assuming it fails the BG7 test for accuracy?

Rasmussen did a Sunday only poll, which is apt to be more favorable to a Republican candidate, while using a small sample size, and had a large error (+/- 4.5).

 

[Denny Crane]

Rasmussen multiplies the Democrats' votes by 5/3. No wonder it's close!

 

[Денг Гордон]

Obama underpolled in the SurveyUSA poll during the primaries, and significantly underpolled in the final Rasmussen poll for the Democratic Primaries. He outperformed the final Rasmussen poll by 116%.

 

[porky88]

I really don't have a clue what will happen with Virginia.

Virginia is a pure toss up. All these polls will be in the margin of error or at least the ones that are close to accurate. Once again though, Obama will have a ton of new supporters backing him in this state and that plays to his advantage. On the flip side, the state hasn't gone blue since LBJ, that plays to McCain's advantage.