Obama passed Clinton in California

[Денг Гордон]

Reuters/Zogby/CSPN= Obama 45 Clinton 41
Rasmussen= Obama 45 Clinton 44
Suffolk= Obama 40 Clinton 39

Thats the last three.

Average= Obama= 43 Clinton 41

Looks like this thing might just happen for Obama. He has closed the gap in Airzona, Missouri, New Jersey.

He looks poised to win Illinois by close to 40%, while Hillary looks like she'll only win New York by 16-18%.

Its beginning to look like:

Obama will win: Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, California, Conneticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (unless Richardson endorses), Utah.

Hillary will win: Arkansas, Massachusetts, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Will that be enough to knock Hillary out of the race though?

Now I'm no expert, but I think the delgate counts will be roughly after Super Tuesday:

Obama- 934
Clinton- 858

That is just pledged delegates of course.

When you factor in the super delegates, it'll be:

Obama= 1040
Clinton= 1055

So Clinton would still have the lead overall : (

Obama would need 985 more delegates to win, and Clinton 970.

There would be 1385 post Super Tuesday Delegates available.

So if Obama wins 60% of the post Super Tuesday delegates (Post Super Tuesday really favors Obama), he would have 1871 delegates to Clinton's 1609. Obama would just have to get 28% of the remaining Super Delegates to secure the nomination.

I think Obama will really do this thing.

He's down 1 point in the latest national poll.

 

[Brand New]

IMO Clinton will end up winning California.

 

[huevonkiller]

BG7, why does Hillary have so many super delegates?

That's the only thing I don't understand. Plus they don't have to vote for her I hear.

 

[Денг Гордон]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 3 2008, 07:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>BG7, why does Hillary have so many super delegates?

That's the only thing I don't understand. Plus they don't have to vote for her I hear.</div>

Clinton has a lot of superdelegates. Like when you see the superdelegates endorsing her, it just seems like they're doing so because she promised them something or other.

Obama's people seem to really like the guy. They seem sincere, and excited when they're endorsing him.

A lot of them didn't believe Obama could feasibly win this thing. So naturally he had less initially than Clinton.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BG7 Lavigne @ Feb 3 2008, 08:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 3 2008, 07:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>BG7, why does Hillary have so many super delegates?

That's the only thing I don't understand. Plus they don't have to vote for her I hear.</div>

Clinton has a lot of superdelegates. Like when you see the superdelegates endorsing her, it just seems like they're doing so because she promised them something or other.

Obama's people seem to really like the guy. They seem sincere, and excited when they're endorsing him.

A lot of them didn't believe Obama could feasibly win this thing. So naturally he had less initially than Clinton.
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Ah well then it looks like if he has a real shot then he'll get more super delegates. That's cool, keep updating.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Newest polls.

California: Obama 46 Clinton 40
Missouri: Obama 47 Clinton 42
Georgia: Obama 48 Clinton 31
New Jersey: Obama 43 Clinton 43

Looks like New York will be Hillary's only big state win, and she'll only win that by about 16% (maybe even less with the way Obama's surging), while Obama will win Illinois by close to 40%.

Looks like Obama will have a super tuesday. No debate in between here and now, so he has no opportunity to falter, he just has to continue riding a wave...maybe today he'll get the Al Gore endorsement. (If you haven't noticed yet, all these endorsements have been strategically planned, probably by Howard Dean, and have been well timed). If not Gore, I'm certain he'll get some other person endorsing him today.

 

[Thoth]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 3 2008, 07:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>BG7, why does Hillary have so many super delegates?

That's the only thing I don't understand. Plus they don't have to vote for her I hear.</div>

Super Delegates, as I understand, were added by the establishment as a safety valve so the common man would not "screw up" the process.