Oden: 2nd Best PER for a Second-Year Player in Last Ten Years

[Blaz06Draft]

Oden was amazingly effective when he was on the court last year. Oden had the 2nd highest PER of any second-year player in the last ten years, behind only LeBron. The rest of the top ten in order: DWade, CP3, Yao, Steve Francis, Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, Boozer, and Durant.

The list essentially breaks down into 3 tiers:
LeBron 25.7
Oden and DWade 23.1
CP3 22.0 to Durant 20.8

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=mSnTo

Greg is now entering his third year. Let’s look at what the other nine players on this list did in their third years.

LeBron: 1st team all-NBA, PER +2.4
DWade: 2nd team all-NBA, PER +4.5
CP3: 1st team all-NBA, PER +6.3
Yao: 3rd team all-NBA, PER +1.3
Francis: all-star, PER -2.5 (missed 25 games)
Kirilenko: all-NBA 2nd team defensive, PER +1.5
Marion: no honors. PER -1.2
Boozer: no honors, PER -1.6 (missed 31 games)
Durant: all-NBA 1st team. PER +5.4

Six of these players made an all-NBA team, one more made the all-star game, and only two didn’t make the all-star game. So when Greg says he’s preparing to make the all-star game, it is a reasonable goal.

Incidentally, all five of the Blazers starters appear high on the list:
Oden 2, 1st among centers
Miller 16, 3rd among PGs (CP3, Francis)
Roy 20, 3rd among 2-guards (dWade, Redd)
Aldridge 30, 10th among PF
Batum 40, 5th among SF (LeBron, Kirilenko, Marion, Gay)

 

[HailBlazers]

So when Greg says he’s preparing to make the all-star game, it is a reasonable goal.

No Doubt, Great Breakdown. When G.O becomes an All-Star, We become NW division Champs

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

Established patterns: meet the Blazer curse.

Not gonna happen.

 

[HailBlazers]

I'm sorry, I'm not superstitious

 

[maxiep]

It should be noted that we have yet to see Greg Oden at 100%. He still hasn't played in top basketball shape yet. Furthermore, we still haven't learned to play with him.

I remain as high on GO as I was before his MF. He's going to be a dominant pivot.

 

[B-Roy]

How many of those players were injured for 2/3 of the season?

 

[oldmangrouch]

Too bad that was his third season, and that the sample size was too small to be reliable.

Don't get me wrong - PER is a useful tool, and better than most of the advanced stats flying around. (at least IMHO) The catch is, the fact that it is playing time neutral can be both a strength and a weakness.

 

[maxiep]

How many of those players were injured for 2/3 of the season?

You're making a point I don't think you see. Imagine of GO were 100% healthy. Imagine if he could play without having to constantly worry about foul trouble? Imagine if he could get into a groove. Imagine if the team got accustomed to playing with him? The answer in all those cases is his PER would go UP not DOWN.

 

[ebott]

Nobody's going to argue that fervently against Greg Oden's on the court capabilities. He's had enough 20/10-ish games and he looks SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO good when he plays. Nobody that's actually paying attention is going to dis Greg Oden for his game play.

 

[andalusian]

I remain as high on a healthy GO as I was before his MF. He's going to be a dominant pivot.

My feelings are above. I have no doubts that healthy - the kid is a beast. I just hope he can finally be - because when he does - this team is going places.

 

[maxiep]

Too bad that was his third season, and that the sample size was too small to be reliable.

Don't get me wrong - PER is a useful tool, and better than most of the advanced stats flying around. (at least IMHO) The catch is, the fact that it is playing time neutral can be both a strength and a weakness.

PER doesn't really translate to GO's strong suit, which is anchoring a defense. His defensive ratings are even better than is offensive ones.

 

[Wheels]

It should be noted that we have yet to see Greg Oden at 100%. He still hasn't played in top basketball shape yet. Furthermore, we still haven't learned to play with him.

I remain as high on GO as I was before his MF. He's going to be a dominant pivot.

right there with you!

 

[blazerboy30]

Too bad that was his third season, and that the sample size was too small to be reliable.

No.
Making the rest of your post lose credibility.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

Too bad that was his third season, and that the sample size was too small to be reliable.

Don't get me wrong - PER is a useful tool, and better than most of the advanced stats flying around. (at least IMHO) The catch is, the fact that it is playing time neutral can be both a strength and a weakness.

As much as you're going to keep trying to say it was his third, the NBA and analysts recognize it as his second season of playing.

 

[HailBlazers]

PER doesn't really translate to GO's strong suit, which is anchoring a defense.

Bingo! And having Mar-Cus Camby as his backup is mind boggling from a defensive POV. Not to mention if Pryz shows up to play.

 

[oldmangrouch]

No.
Making the rest of your post lose credibility.

As much as you're going to keep trying to say it was his third, the NBA and analysts recognize it as his second season of playing.

So, he isn't an RFA next summer and a UFA the summer after? Cool! That will make life for the Blazers much easier, as they can delay making a decision on an extension.

Contractually/legally this is his 4th season in the league. For the team, that is the only relevant yardstick - when his rookie deal ends and he either gets an extension or becomes a FA. The fans can pretend the 07-08 season doesn't count, but the team doesn't have that luxury!

 

[blazerboy30]

So, he isn't an RFA next summer and a UFA the summer after? Cool! That will make life for the Blazers much easier, as they can delay making a decision on an extension.

Contractually/legally this is his 4th season in the league. For the team, that is the only relevant yardstick - when his rookie deal ends and he either gets an extension or becomes a FA. The fans can pretend the 07-08 season doesn't count, but the team doesn't have that luxury!

Because you say it is his contract that determines what year he is playing in doesn't make it so.

We could easily say that a player's rookie year is when a team first obtains their rights. That would also be silly and meaningless.

 

[Further]

So, he isn't an RFA next summer and a UFA the summer after? Cool! That will make life for the Blazers much easier, as they can delay making a decision on an extension.

Contractually/legally this is his 4th season in the league. For the team, that is the only relevant yardstick - when his rookie deal ends and he either gets an extension or becomes a FA. The fans can pretend the 07-08 season doesn't count, but the team doesn't have that luxury!

His contract has nothing to do with what's being discussed. So for the topic on hand, there is only one yardstick that makes sense to use, and that's seasons on court.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

So, he isn't an RFA next summer and a UFA the summer after? Cool! That will make life for the Blazers much easier, as they can delay making a decision on an extension.

Contractually/legally this is his 4th season in the league. For the team, that is the only relevant yardstick - when his rookie deal ends and he either gets an extension or becomes a FA. The fans can pretend the 07-08 season doesn't count, but the team doesn't have that luxury!

This discussion isn't centered around his contractual status--it's centered around his on-court development. In terms of his contract, yes, he's entering his fourth year. In terms of NBA experience, he's entering his third. When we're discussing contractual issues, then it makes perfect sense to refer to him as a fourth-year player, but not when we're discussing on-court production.

Or, what GOD said...

 

[Minstrel]

Contractually/legally this is his 4th season in the league. For the team, that is the only relevant yardstick

That's the only relevant yardstick for his pay, yes. It's not the only relevant (or even the most relevant) yardstick for measuring basketball development.

That year counts toward his free agency and it counts toward his reaching his athletic prime...but it doesn't count toward his skills development or NBA experience.

 

[ebott]

I'm with the it was his 3rd year people. The point of the nba rookie contract is that it gives teams 4 years to evaluate a player. We're going into the last year we can use to evaluate Oden and we simply do not have ample evidence to do any sort of evaluation.

 

[Further]

Which season was Oden eligible, according to the NBA, for rookie of the year? Answer, his second contract season, because it was his rookie season on the court.

 

[oldmangrouch]

That year counts toward his free agency and it counts toward his reaching his athletic prime...but it doesn't count toward his skills development or NBA experience.

Perfectly true....but you cannot evaluate a player's value to the team without factoring age and contract into the equation. When Cho and company sit down to evaluate Oden, they won't be grading a 3rd year player - they will be judging him as a 4th year player who they must extend, or let become a RFA. They will be judging Oden in a context that many fans want to ignore.

 

[BBert]

This thread is about comparing the production ratings of players' second year on an NBA court, with a secondary discussion of projecting that production forward. The contract year is meaningless to this discussion.

Or, what 90% of the rest of you already said.

 

[BGrantFan]

Perfectly true....but you cannot evaluate a player's value to the team without factoring age and contract into the equation. When Cho and company sit down to evaluate Oden, they won't be grading a 3rd year player - they will be judging him as a 4th year player who they must extend, or let become a RFA. They will be judging Oden in a context that many fans want to ignore.

Yep. From a business/evaluation standpoint, the Blazer have to consider the lost 2007-08 season in their new contract negotiations with Oden's agent. Seems pretty basic to me.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

This thread is about comparing the production ratings of players' second year on an NBA court, with a secondary discussion of projecting that production forward. The contract year is meaningless to this discussion.

Or, what 90% of the rest of you already said.

Yes, but this sort of rationality flies in the face of the rampant pessimism required to be one of the Cool Posters on the forum!

 

[Foulzilla]

I think the whole 2nd vs 3rd year argument is irrelevant anyways. I would suspect his PER is still impressive even if compared to other 3rd year players (or same age players, or whatever other comparison floats your boat). His PER would have been impressive for a 10 year vet. Let's just hope he can stay on the floor long enough to provide that PER towards the team winning.

 

[Minstrel]

Perfectly true....but you cannot evaluate a player's value to the team without factoring age and contract into the equation. When Cho and company sit down to evaluate Oden, they won't be grading a 3rd year player - they will be judging him as a 4th year player who they must extend, or let become a RFA. They will be judging Oden in a context that many fans want to ignore.

I agree, but this thread didn't seem to be about his overall value, counting in financial considerations. To me, at least, it seemed to be about his on-court value...in which case, he's a "second-year" player in the ways that matter to his development as a player. The NBA agrees with that, as he was named to the All-Rookie team season before last.

In terms of contractual obligations, he's a third year player. I quite agree.

 

[Further]

It's his third year if a monkey farted in lemon pudding, his fourth year if my nuts get tasered by a PCP addled celebrity chef. At least it's not his fifth since Jenny Jones hasn't been skinned, revealing the inside-Jenny minny -Dick Van Patton.

 

[Blazer_Mullet_Man]

All-hail Oden. All hail the dude that plays in 30% of the games since joining the team and barely averages 20 minutes a game before running out of gas and finding himself in foul trouble because he can't move his feet. Somewhere I read the guy averages over 8 fouls per 48 minutes played.

He won't finish the season. We'll be lucky to see 20 games out of him this season.