Oden draft guess

[BrianFromWA]

Let's say that the GMs around the league know what everyone knows now about Oden, his injury history, his NBA stats, etc. Let's say that for some reason that is unallowable by the CBA he actually was placed into the 2011 draft as a 2xMF, 82-games-in-4-years, 23 y/o C.

Where do you think he gets picked?

I'm an Oden homer, but I still think the doom and gloom is a bit thick with him. I get it--don't get me wrong--but I think that given the initial conditions above I would be way more stoked to roll the dice with 2xMF 23y/o Greg Oden than Bismack Biyambo or one of the Morris twins.

We're about to get a Force of Nature back on our team after a 2yr absence. And in those 2 years he put up numbers that only 4 Hall of Famers have achieved. And he did it as a clumsy rookie and soph coming off of MF surgery.

He might snap in half taking the opening tip of the first game he plays, but while he's on the court he's Beast Mode, NBA-style.

 

[BrianFromWA]

For the record, I think he would've been picked in the Top 5.

 

[Boise Blazer]

You know I saw that someone posted in another thread that even the most injury riddled players that have been in the league have usually seemed to give at least a few season relatively healthy seasons. Considering that, Oden's young age and that he is only going to get better skills wise I would imagine that most teams would be willing to take a chance on that. You are taking a chance an unproven rookie anyway. Oden's potential rebounding and defensive impact are game changers. I would say that unless the top team already had a proven center or was in desperate need of pg for example I think Oden would probably go 2 or 3. You have to consider as well that if Oden was in the draft he is going to get paid on the rookie scale which helps a lot.

 

[Shooter]

We're about to get a Force of Nature back on our team after a 2yr absence.

The only force of nature that Oden reminds me of is a big powerful storm that dies somewhere over the ocean and is never heard from again.

 

[Nikolokolus]

So everybody gets the foreknowledge that he misses 75% of his games in his first 4 years and sees that he puts around 10-7-1.5? Well then I'd guess he'd still go in the lottery based on the chance that he could end up being a difference maker at some point, but not in the top 7 (and maybe not even the top 10).

 

[WarriorFan]

That's an interesting question. Personally, I think he could slip to the 2nd round. How is he different than, say, Chris Taft who was once considered a surefire #1 pick, then back problems and concerns about work ethic knocked his to round 2. Sure, Oden may have a great work ethic (I don't know) but I think plenty of teams would look at his demeanor and the fact that he did not seem too eager to return from his injuries and be very afraid of taking him. I think Jerome James is another example of a guy who had dominant size and skill, or at least potential, but other concerns knocked him to round 2.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

he would have went #1 this year for sure. kyrie irving? williams? oden has already proven that when he is on the court he is a TOP 10 PLAYER, PER WISE, IN THE ENTIRE FUCKING NBA

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...spn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?year=2010

fucking haters are making me get a clue

 

[Nikolokolus]

he would have went #1 this year for sure. kyrie irving? williams? oden has already proven that when he is on the court he is a TOP 10 PLAYER, PER WISE, IN THE ENTIRE FUCKING NBA

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...spn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?year=2010

fucking haters are making me get a clue

He had a nice 15 game stretch, that's for sure, but sample sizes matter.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

He had a nice 15 game stretch, that's for sure, but sample sizes matter.

nba sample sizes matter in the draft?

 

[Nikolokolus]

nba sample sizes matter in the draft?

The whole theoretical exercise here is where he would go in the draft if people could look at his career so far ... so yes, in this case that fifteen game sample matters for back-casting his draft position. Without that fifteen game sample to consider, he'd be a second rounder.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

 

[3RA1N1AC]

the other players in this draft had no sample whatsoever, id take a small dominant sample over a guess on biyombo... i guess you wouldnt?

 

[3RA1N1AC]

as in, going forward, you rate oden as the, what, 15th best choice in this draft class?

 

[Denny Crane]

It obviously depends on the rest of the class. He wouldn't go #1 if DRose were in the draft.

I bet he'd go top 10 if not top 5. Draft picks are rarely a sure thing, and his potential is still quite good.

 

[Nikolokolus]

the other players in this draft had no sample whatsoever, id take a small dominant sample over a guess on biyombo... i guess you wouldnt?

as in, going forward, you rate oden as the, what, 15th best choice in this draft class?

I don't see what's so funny? (Besides that you think I'm a huge fucking fool and want everybody to know that you think this). The only question being discussed here is what would be his projected draft position in 2007 if you knew what the next four years would be like.

Look at some of the names that came out that year: Al Horford, Kevin Durant, Joachim Noah, Carl Landry, Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Jared Dudley, Wilson Chandler, Aaron Brooks, Tiago Splitter, Glen Davis, Marc Gasol and Ramon Sessions.

I'm not saying he's definitely worse or better than any of those guys, but that's an awful lot of production out of one draft class; in my opinion one of the most important abilities for a player to have is availability.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

I don't see what's so funny? (Besides that you think I'm a huge fucking fool and want everybody to know that you think this). The only question being discussed here is what would be his projected draft position in 2007

Let's say that for some reason that is unallowable by the CBA he actually was placed into the 2011 draft

ahh i see what happened there

 

[Nikolokolus]

ahh i see what happened there

OK, my bad, I missed the 2011 bit. In that case in what many call a terrible draft, then Oden might be top 7 guy, probably a top 5.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

if it were a 2007 do over then yeah, durant and horford go ahead of him easily

 

[Nikolokolus]

if it were a 2007 do over then yeah, durant and horford go ahead of him easily

And Noah, and Landry, and Conley and Gasol ...

 

[3RA1N1AC]

this might be an interesting way to think about it...where would greg have gone if the drafting team new his first 4 seasons would basically be a wash? i mean in that case, hes basically like a eurostash...hrmm in that case i would say yes, late 1st, early 2nd

i know we have all been burned by the hope of him so many times, but if he is healthy, im going to assume he is going to stay that way, ala amare/zbo/other MF guys

 

[3RA1N1AC]

And Noah, and Landry, and Conley and Gasol ...

gasol was a middle second round pick, i would assume he would stay that way, same with landry right? and noah went what...10th? him and oden would have prolly been a tossup at that point.

i might have been ambiguous though... i was going with your assumption about the 2007 draft as it was with with oden as he is now.

 

[Nikolokolus]

gasol was a middle second round pick, i would assume he would stay that way, same with landry right? and noah went what...10th? him and oden would have prolly been a tossup at that point.

i might have been ambiguous though... i was going with your assumption about the 2007 draft as it was with with oden as he is now.

No I'm saying that if the draft was redone, certain guys would have gone much higher (and lower) than they actually did. Landry and Marc Gasol would both have been high lottery picks (same goes for Noah).

 

[3RA1N1AC]

landry would still go below oden clearly, and even if you did a complete do over, oden still goes top 10

 

[oldmangrouch]

Let's rephrase the question slightly.

What if: Oden stayed at OSU for 4 seasons, played in 1 game out of 4 during that time, but had one brief stretch as a Jr where he looked really promising. Where would he be drafted?

My guess - he doesn't even sniff the first round.

 

[Nikolokolus]

So everybody gets the foreknowledge that he misses 75% of his games in his first 4 years and sees that he puts around 10-7-1.5? Well then I'd guess he'd still go in the lottery based on the chance that he could end up being a difference maker at some point, but not in the top 7 (and maybe not even the top 10).

landry would still go below oden clearly, and even if you did a complete do over, oden still goes top 10

Which brings us full circle: I said lottery but maybe not in the top ten ...

 

[3RA1N1AC]

so we agree! i thought it would be more rewarding than this....lol

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Let's rephrase the question slightly.

What if: Oden stayed at OSU for 4 seasons, played in 1 game out of 4 during that time, but had one brief stretch as a Jr where he looked really promising. Where would he be drafted?

My guess - he doesn't even sniff the first round.

dominating in the nba is much different than "looking really promising" in college, but you might be about right, i would say late lotto-mid twentys

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

That's a tough call.

I'm certainly no slobbering Oden-lover. But I do know facts. One fact is no lottery pick caliber player has ever had degenerative knee issues by the age of 24 and only played 82 career games (or anything close to that). So I'm sure he still has a ton of games left in him (just like Bynum still has (had) a lot of games in him after being perpetually injury-prone, and Blake Griffin still has many games left in him with similar knee issues).

And I know that only a few players (such as Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson and Greg Oden) have had a PER over 23 in the last 5 years for the time they actually are out there on the court playing against NBA caliber opponents.

So with those two facts said, you tell me I'll get a guy who might be on and off the court with the occasional injury (picturing a guy like Bynum with one healthy season every five years and 40 or so games in most) and I'll get Dwight Howard/Tim Duncan productivity for the games he is healthy for? I'd have to say maybe 3rd-10th. Maybe not worth top 2, but definitely not outside of the lottery (where half the guys barely even make the rosters and end up in the D-League in 3 years).