Oden expectations thread

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If Oden can stay in the game an extra 5 min a game next year I think that will be huge. If he can improve on his offense and defense a tad while doing that HUUUUUGE... if not... just stay in the game big man...

You know what's more important than almost all of that? Staying healthy and getting his confidence back. If he does those two things, I will be happy, because then we will have a INSANE center combo with him and Pryz.
 
Watch the body checks, stay out of foul trouble
Demand for the ball on the pick n roll
Be a defensive monster
stay healthy
Get leaner and into game shape
Get him a point guard who knows how to feed the bigs

If those things happen, we'll be very happy
 
1) Stay healthy or even be more healthy.
2) Stop making fouls by not keeping his hands straight up or rotating way too slow under the basket.
3) Have fun and unburden himself of the expectations of other people.
 
Oden said at the beginning of the season that he was going to try to block everything. And he was quoted after the draft that "I hope I can get a bunch of championships, like 15." Seems all a little starry-eyed now, doesn't it?

This is really the first summer he'll have reasonable expectations about himself and what he can accomplish. Hopefully he came away from facing Yao with a real appreciation of all the skills he still needs to add to his repertoire.

Over the past two seasons I've always been one of the most optimistic people about Oden's development. So far, I've been proven wrong over and over. But I'm still game.

I think we'll add a much better PG this offseason, hopefully somebody who can deliver the ball to him in position to score. If we can't accomplish that, we'll probably upgrade defensively at SF, meaning Oden gets dinged with fewer silly fouls while trying to cover for their lapses.

On top of all that, you can't discount Oden spending the next 4 months thinking about how many games he took himself out of because of silly fouls. That's got to motivate him to work on becoming quicker and better at moving his feet.

So here's my prediction:

32 mpg. 15 ppg. 12 rebounds. 2 blocked shots.

It's actually a little pessimistic, I think. After all this was his stats this year:
21 mpg. 9 ppg. 7 rebounds. 1 blocked shot.

And that was with him recovering from surgery and learning the league.
 
30 minutes a game. If he gets 30min a game the rest will work itself out.
 
Uncle Ty said:
I think this is because LaMarcus had such crappy start to the season, which brought down his season stats. I think if you take away the stats he had at the beginning of the season (20 games or so), his stats for this season would be noticeably better than last season. LaMarcus, once again, improved during the 2nd half of the season. The eye test would tell you that, and the stats would confirm that observation.
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Sure he definitely had a slow start to the season and had a much better second half, but I remember distinctly watching LMA make an effort to get into the lane with a lot more regularity than the previous two years ... he was missing his running hook left and right and got called for quite a few offensive fouls, but the improvement in his game was visible, even if it wasn't happening in the box score.
 
Uncle Ty said:
Dude, PER is so yesterday. VA is the shit now. So, a PER of 19 in how many minutes would satisfy you? For me, a PER of 19+ in 28min+ would be awesome!
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Actually, I thought about putting a minutes expectation in there, but I wanted to bug KingSpeed a little with a per-minute efficiency stat. ;)

I'm expecting about 25-30 minutes per game.
 
how much better would conley jr make Oden? Do we hope Memphis gets the 2nd pick so they have more incentive to trade Conley?
 
KingSpeed said:
10 & 16 without giving it a second thought.
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That's weird, I think 18 and 10 is the much better option. That's many more pts in the paint/fouls on the other team and 10 rebounds is more than fine, especially when you consider the Blazers are already a very good rebounding team anyways.
 
Nikolokolus said:
I don't think you understand the difference between expectations and hope. Of course I hope Greg has a monster season, but I don't expect the foul trouble issue is going to be fixed over night, and I don't expect he's going to magically develop a low post game, nor do I expect him to be getting many more looks with our current guard rotation. Therefore all I expect is a modest improvement in foul rate, a modest improvement in minutes played, and a modest improvement in his post-up game.

I think the biggest difference between you and I Eric, is that you tend to look at per game stats as if that's the only meanginful way to measure player improvement or decline;.
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The fact of the matter is... if Oden doesn't start averaging a double double soon, regardless of the excuses, he will be considered a bust. Period. The guy was supposed to be a once-in-his-generation center. #1 pick. Look at the great centers and what they averaged their rookie season. Yes, Oden had surgery (not his fault) and foul trouble (completely his fault), but starting this season, the excuses have to stop. He has to produce. Or at least look active on both sides of the court every single night.
 
RoyToy said:
That's weird, I think 18 and 10 is the much better option. That's many more pts in the paint/fouls on the other team and 10 rebounds is more than fine, especially when you consider the Blazers are already a very good rebounding team anyways.
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We need Oden to rebound and play defense. We need 12 rebounds and 3 blocks out of him every night. Throw in 10-12 points of easy baskets inside and I'm happy. That's not once-in-his-generation numbers but it's all this team needs to win a championship.
 
18&10..we are already a great rebounding team, and we desperately need a 3rd scorer in the lineup..if Greg is getting 18, then that is leaving things wide open for everyone else.
 
KingSpeed said:
We need Oden to rebound and play defense. We need 12 rebounds and 3 blocks out of him every night. Throw in 10-12 points of easy baskets inside and I'm happy. That's not once-in-his-generation numbers but it's all this team needs to win a championship.
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10 rebounds is still very good. This team is already a good rebounding team. It doesn't a big improvement there.

It does however need more scoring in the paint, and Oden would provide a lot more of that with 18pts and game rather than 10pts a game.
 
RoyToy said:
10 rebounds is still very good. This team is already a good rebounding team. It doesn't a big improvement there.
.
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10 rebounds would be great, no doubt. I don't expect him to average 16 rebounds. But if given a choice, I'd take it. Would make him the best rebounder since Rodman. Rodman won championships.
 
KingSpeed said:
We need Oden to rebound and play defense. We need 12 rebounds and 3 blocks out of him every night. Throw in 10-12 points of easy baskets inside and I'm happy. That's not once-in-his-generation numbers but it's all this team needs to win a championship.
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I challenge you to assess a player without mentioning raw stats.
 
I honestly have no idea. He won't have the rookie, or coming off an injury excuse anymore. He's gotta step up to the plate! Lots of other young players stepped up right away. Players that think they're going to develop slowly like fine wine usually do not.

I agree with Nate that this is a huge off season for Greg. He's gotta pick up some skill!
 
KingSpeed said:
10 rebounds would be great, no doubt. I don't expect him to average 16 rebounds. But if given a choice, I'd take it. Would make him the best rebounder since Rodman. Rodman won championships.
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I find your choice to be weird.
 
B-Roy said:
I challenge you to assess a player without mentioning raw stats.
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Well, sure. At times this season, he wasn't even active on either side of the court. In his rookie year, if I could've seen him actively making a difference on either side of the court, I would have been happy. But so often, he did nothing. It's not all about stats. Sometimes, people threw per minute stats at me and it meant nothing to me. Didn't at all reflect how active he was actually being on the court while he was out there. KG, while he didn't have great you know what his rookie year, he showed flashes of dominance in the second half of his rookie season. I was in Minnesota then and went to many of the games. You could see that he was going to be good. And it wasn't specifically about scoring or rebounding. But NOW, in Oden's SECOND year, he has to do more than just be active. He has to produce.

I challenge you back. Your turn.
 
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HurraKane212 said:
I'd rather have th 16 boards, you can draw fouls picking up rebounds too ya know, not to mention the putbacks and such. Hey, fuck it, don't ever let the other team have the ball unless it's after a made basket. That kind of rebounding will cover a multitude of sins.
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Amen. Not to mention the fact that having a single dominant rebounder, as opposed to multiple good rebounders, makes it easier to get out and run. This teams will never be the Suns, but even a handful of easy buckets a game would be nice. Given that LMA is one of the fastest PFs in the league, the ability to get him out on the break could create some nasty mismatches.
 
KingSpeed said:
Well, sure. At times this season, he wasn't even active on either side of the court. In his rookie year, if I could've seen him actively making a difference on either side of the court, I would have been happy. But so often, he did nothing. It's not all about stats. Sometimes, people threw per minute stats at me and it meant nothing to me. Didn't at all reflect how active he was actually being on the court while he was out there. KG, while he didn't have great you know what his rookie year, he showed flashes of dominance in the second half of his rookie season. I was in Minnesota then and went to many of the games. You could see that he was going to be good. And it wasn't specifically about scoring or rebounding. But NOW, in Oden's SECOND year, he has to do more than just be active. He has to produce.

I challenge you back. Your turn.
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What are you going to challenge me to do? I don't just mention raw stats when evaluating players. It's just something that I've noticed you do a lot, no offense.
 
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