Oden vs. Bowie

[Boob-No-More]

OK, we've all heard the endless Oden vs. Bowie draft bust, could have had Jordan/Durant comparisons, but I have another take on this issue.

Would you be happy with Bowie like numbers from Greg?

Oden is now 23, the same age Sam Bowie was when he started his rookie season with the Blazers. As a rookie, Sam played in 76 games, 62 as a starter. He averaged 10.0 ppg, 8.6 rpg and 2.7 bpg and shot .537 from the field. He made first team all-rookie for the deepest, best draft class in NBA history. So, ingnoring the potential for a shortened season due to a lockout, would you be happy with 76 games of 10.0/8.6/2.7 from Greg in 2011-12?

After Sam was traded to NJ for Buck Williams he actually had four straight reasonably healthy (for him), productive seasons for the Nets. His best two years were 14.7/10.1/1.8 in 68 games and 15.0/8.1/1.7 in 71 games. Would you be happy if Oden puts up a couple years of comparable numbers during the peak of his career?

I'm just curious what the expectations are for Oden moving forward. Obviously, when heathly and on the court, Oden has been a beast and insanely productive. Unfortunatelty, his on court time has been limted both both injuries and foul trouble (something that was never really a problem for Bowie). I keep reading posts that a healthy Greg Oden is our best chance to contend for a championship. So, is 10/8/2.7 immediately and 15/9/1.8 peak enough to get us there? If Greg is ever healthy, do you expect more, or less, from him than those numbers?

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

My expectations for Oden aren't very high, I think it's safe to say at this point that the likelihood of him being able to stay healthy for a 100 games (or even 80) is pretty low ... but who knows, maybe his (mostly) healthy games will coincide with the April, May and June months and we'll get "lucky."

As for his production, is 15/9/1.8 enough to get us where? a championship? I doubt it ... those numbers would certainly be nice, but that is not superstar production, and even Dwight Howard like production isn't a guarantee of a championship with the dearth of ball-handlers and shot creators that we will be faced with after Miller is gone and Brandon is waived/retired/broken down.

 

[DeanMoriarty]

I think so, especially if the rest of the Blazers carry the scoring load.

15/9 would be great for an elite defender (probably THE elite center-defender in the NBA).

Since Oden was actually a better rebounder and FG% guy than Bowie, I would say it'd be possible that he shoots at a higher clip and rebounds more. So, I wouldn't be surprised if it was more like 16/12 with elite defending....all in limited minutes, too.

 

[HailBlazers]

Would you be happy with Bowie like numbers from Greg?

Yes, but I would expect more. Regardless, to me the most important numbers are fouls and mp. His presence alone is a game changer. The key to stopping teams like Miami, Dallas, and the Fakers is Defense, and Greg will be the key to it. Having him in the middle of the paint will change everything about how teams are able to attack us. Our defense is stellar already, but with G.O. finally in the middle it's going to be outstanding.

 

[julius]

my expectations are for him to have decent stats, but I'm not sure if he'll have decent # of games.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Yes, but I would expect more. Regardless, to me the most important numbers are fouls and mp. His presence alone is a game changer. The key to stopping teams like Miami, Dallas, and the Fakers is Defense, and Greg will be the key to it. Having him in the middle of the paint will change everything about how teams are able to attack us. Our defense is stellar already, but with G.O. finally in the middle it's going to be outstanding.

By what metric? Field goal % allowed, points per 100 possessions? Show me some evidence that this team plays "stellar" defense besides points per game allowed -- which is completely influenced by having the slowest pace in the league.

 

[HailBlazers]

Jason Terry said Portland "by far" has been the best defense Dallas has faced this postseason

http://twitter.com/#!/IraHeatBeat/status/77808474402205696

Nik your Avatar is so fitting, Black AND White. Sorry dude but not everything can be captured by Metrics, Let me introduce a color to you, Grey. Learn to stop being so objective.

Sure our defense has gaps, but if you look at the individuals we have and their defensive skills, throw in G.O. and were gonna seriously frustrate some teams.

 

[Masbee]

I'm just curious what the expectations are for Oden moving forward. Obviously, when heathly and on the court, Oden has been a beast and insanely productive. Unfortunatelty, his on court time has been limted both both injuries and foul trouble (something that was never really a problem for Bowie). I keep reading posts that a healthy Greg Oden is our best chance to contend for a championship. So, is 10/8/2.7 immediately and 15/9/1.8 peak enough to get us there? If Greg is ever healthy, do you expect more, or less, from him than those numbers?

BNM

If he is ever healthy, I expect 15pts / 12reb / 3blks

15 & 9 with under 2 blks would be crap (relatively) and that kind of performance wouldn't take us anywhere.

 

[Nikolokolus]

http://twitter.com/#!/IraHeatBeat/status/77808474402205696

Nik your Avatar is so fitting, Black AND White. Sorry dude but not everything can be captured by Metrics, Let me introduce a color to you, Grey. Learn to stop being so objective.

Sure our defense has gaps, but if you look at the individuals we have and their defensive skills, throw in G.O. and were gonna seriously frustrate some teams.

The only area where I actually think our defense was pretty good last year was in take-aways, but just because Terry was trying to get under the Heatle's skin by dogging their defense doesn't mean we did much to stop them in our series. They lit us like a Christmas tree shooting something like 48% from the floor and we gave up a staggering 112 points per 100 possessions in that series (second to last out of all playoff teams only to the Hornets). So in the meantime I'll just go ahead and stick to the facts. Thanks anyway.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2011.html

 

[Boob-No-More]

If he is ever healthy, I expect 15pts / 12reb / 3blks

15 & 9 with under 2 blks would be crap (relatively) and that kind of performance wouldn't take us anywhere.

15/9/2 may be relative crap, but only one player in the entire NBA achieved those numbers last season. Dwight Howard was 22.9/14.1/2.4.

If you reduce the blocks to 1.5, you also get:

Pau Gasol: 18.8/10.2/1.6
Al Jefferson: 18.6/9.7/1.9

Dropping RPG to 8.0, you also add:
Amare Stoudemire: 25.3/8.2/1.9
Josh Smith: 16.5/8.5/1.6

There just aren't that many players in the league right now capable of 15/9/2. Hell, there are only a few guys capable of 12/7/1.5. If Oden put up 15/9/2, he'd probably be considered the second best center in the league right now.

If you toss out blocks, there were still only 9 guys who put up 15/9 points and rebounds last season, but guys like Kevin Love, Zach Randolph, Blake Griffin, Carlos Boozer and David Lee really only have a positive impact at one end of the court and hurt their teams at the other end. The difference with Oden is he is/will be a game changer at both ends of the court - if when healthy.

BNM

 

[HailBlazers]

Very Nice BNM.

Without a doubt if Oden can provide 2 blocks a game it will change everything. Teams will no longer be able to attack the paint and they'll be forced to shoot jump-shots to get into a rhythm. We know from experience how that goes.

Tyson Chandler led the league in offensive rebounds during the playoffs and it was huge for the Mavs. We used to do that same. Man, having G.O., Wallace, and LMA to clean up the boards will be incredible. Think of all the second chances we will get off all our horribly missed shots.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Those stats from Bowie are interesting: I didn't realize he had done so well; it's amazing how when you have great expectations, something less seems like a lot less.

Now I'm older and don't have such great expectations; if Oden could have those kind of stats and play 60 plus games a year for a few years, I would be happy.

 

[Targus]

Bowie like numbers would be amazing, out of a guy like Oden. I admire the optimism and wish I shared some, but I would be surprised if we see Oden play in 15+ games next season. Oden will be the new definition of draft bust, in part due to how we fans continue to hold on to a glimmer of hope he'll actually see the court.