Politics Official 2016 Polls Thread

[Denny Crane]

Except, of course, that (a) no one has ever questioned where McCain was born; (b) McCain actually wasn't born in the United States; (c) there's no conspiracy theory, only a constitutional/legal issue; (d) no current or past presidential candidate spent years talking about the issue.

Other than that, yeah, exactly the same.

barfo

Other than questioning the person's eligibility for office you mean.

Trump brought up the same thing with Cruz, though that does fit with the racist thing.

 

[MarAzul]

no current or past presidential candidate spent years talking about the issue.

Baloney. The question has come up several times. McCain, George Romney, and at least one other, Chester Aurthur I think it was. What is surprising is that it was not brought up officially over
Obama. This is especially surprising to me because he is the only one that does not meet the requirements for attaching "Natural Born" to citizen as required for the office of President.

The Naturalization law of 1790 some what affirms the original intent of the term, Natural Born, as being the same as is defined in the Law of Nations, sometimes referred to as Natural Law.

From the article;

But McCain is a natural-born citizen, even though he was not born within this country’s borders, since his parents were citizens at the time of his birth. As a congressional act stated in 1790:

Congress: “And the children of citizens of the United States, that may be born beyond sea, or out of the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born citizens.”


From the Law of Nations;

Law of Nation 212 Book 1

"Citizens and natives.

The citizens are the members of the civil society; bound to this society by certain duties, and subject to its authority,
they equally participate in its advantages. The natives, or natural-born citizens, are those born in the country,
of parents who are citizens. As the society cannot exist and perpetuate itself otherwise than by the children of the citizens,
those children naturally follow the condition of their fathers, and succeed to all their rights. The society is supposed to desire this,
in consequence of what it owes to its own preservation; and it is presumed, as matter of course, that each citizen, on entering into society,
reserves to his children the right of becoming members of it. The country of the fathers is therefore that of the children;
and these become true citizens merely by their tacit consent. We shall soon see whether, on their coming to the years of discretion,
they may renounce their right, and what they owe to the society in which they were born. I say, that, in order to be of the country,
it is necessary that a person be born of a father who is a citizen; for, if he is born there of a foreigner,
it will be only the place of his birth, and not his country."


http://www.factcheck.org/2008/02/john-mccains-presidential-eligibility/


The 14th amendment changed the law as to whom is a Citizen but it did not address the definitions of Natural Born. Being a Citizen is not the same
and being a Natural Born Citizen even if born in one of the States.

My reading of history, tells me that the original intent of using the term Natural Born Citizen as the qualifier for President of the US, was specifically to prevent a person born here but probably loyal to another Nation from becoming President.

McCain fits, Cruz probably does fit as his father is a citizen, Romney fits. Barrack Obama doe not fit the term as his father was not a citizen of the United States. Although he is a citizen as defined by the 14th amendment, he is also (or was) a citizen of the UK and Kenya by British law, and as is defined in the the Law of Nations.
This in my mind, is clearly in conflict with the original intent of the use of the term Natural Born Citizen in the Constitution, even thought the Constitution does not define the term what so ever, leaving the meaning to be defined by usage contemporary with period.

 

[barfo]

no current or past presidential candidate spent years talking about the issue.

barfo

Baloney. The question has come up several times.

No, that's not the way the English language works. Show me where a current or past presidential candidate spent years talking about the issue, and you'll get to call 'baloney'.

I agree the issue has come up several times, but that's a completely different claim.

Your Natural Law argument is noted.

barfo

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Perusing 538, I came upon this graphic, that I think is one of my favorites in terms of illustrating how close the race is.



This basically suggests that (if the current polls hold) Pennsylvania will basically be the key to this election.

 

[H.C.]

Not saying he's the best candidate or anything of that matter.
But if the blue party really wanted to have a democrat in the white house again.
There was a candidate running for the blue's who did FAR better in poles against Trump than Clinton ever did.
But alas that ship has sailed. Blue party had their candidate before any vote was cast.

 

[e_blazer]

Perusing 538, I came upon this graphic, that I think is one of my favorites in terms of illustrating how close the race is.

View attachment 10157

This basically suggests that (if the current polls hold) Pennsylvania will basically be the key to this election.

That thing looks like a colon, which is appropriate since no matter which one wins, shit comes out.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-shatters-gop-records-with-small-donors-228338

Just wow.

 

[dviss1]

Hiliar slipping in the polls. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Democrats are freaking out.

View attachment 10144

It's a 1 point race, and Trump is 26 EVs short of an Electoral College projected victory. No Toss Up States.

Quite possible to flip:

Colorado, 9 EVs

View attachment 10145

North Carolina, 19 EV

View attachment 10146


And it'd be a done deal. 28 EVs between those two states.

Of course, the momentum can shift in Hiliar's favor as it has before. On the other hand, Trump has been underestimated since the start, and this is what a Trump victory would look like.

God help us all.

There are more states that could flip.

Nevada

View attachment 10147

Virginia

View attachment 10148

Dumbass Dems shoulda hired Bernie. He'd be TROUNCING Drumpf right now.

 

[santeesioux]

Dumbass Dems shoulda hired Bernie. He'd be TROUNCING Drumpf right now.

Not saying he's the best candidate or anything of that matter.
But if the blue party really wanted to have a democrat in the white house again.
There was a candidate running for the blue's who did FAR better in poles against Trump than Clinton ever did.
But alas that ship has sailed. Blue party had their candidate before any vote was cast.

They really did fuck this up badly, if we actually end up with Trump as president we have nobody to blame but the Democrats for having 8 years to come up with a candidate and getting the worst one possible.

 

[Denny Crane]

The liar with a surge in today's polls.



However, the electoral college looks like 1 state flipped for Trump puts him over 270.

 

[Denny Crane]

 

[Denny Crane]

This is an oddity. It seems the legal immigrants are not happy with those who come here by crossing the border.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/296747-trump-is-doing-better-with-hispanics-than-you-think

Trump is doing better with Hispanics than you think

 

[barfo]

They really did fuck this up badly, if we actually end up with Trump as president we have nobody to blame but the Democrats for having 8 years to come up with a candidate and getting the worst one possible.

So, you wouldn't blame Republicans? Or voters?

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

So, you wouldn't blame Republicans? Or voters?

barfo

8 years of your kind in action and people want Trump of all things.

 

[Denny Crane]

Nat Silver

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

 

[Denny Crane]

 

[Denny Crane]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Poll: Nearly half of voters think Trump will detonate a nuke

A majority of voters say Donald Trump would allow the U.S. to default on its debt and that he would misuse the power of the presidency to punish his political opponents.

And nearly half of voters — 46 percent — say the GOP nominee would use a nuclear weapon to attack ISIS or another foreign enemy.

Those are the findings of a new poll conducted by SurveyMonkey on behalf of the Lincoln Leadership Initiative, a new group helmed by prominent Republican critics of the New York billionaire who are advocating for the Republican Party to dump Trump and return to its “foundational values.”

The poll also found that a majority of voters believe that as president, Trump would create a database to track Muslims and order military strikes against the families of terrorists.

Sixty-five percent said that there would be race riots in major cities during a Trump administration, and 44 percent believe Trump would authorize internment camps for illegal immigrants.

Those views are also held by a significant number of voters who are Trump supporters.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...ly-half-of-voters-think-trump-will-detonate-a

 

[Denny Crane]

I don't think Trump would detonate a nuke. That's silly. If anything, he probably won't use the military much at all. That's my sense of it anyway.

 

[Denny Crane]

Head to head, Hiliar's numbers improve.

The Electoral College is one state flip away from Trump being ahead. Clinton's lead shrinks in Colorado and Virginia.

 

[dviss1]

I don't think Trump would detonate a nuke. That's silly. If anything, he probably won't use the military much at all. That's my sense of it anyway.

You gotta be kidding me Denny... Our government is controlled by the Military Industrial Complex. Both candidates will go to war.

 

[Denny Crane]

You gotta be kidding me Denny... Our government is controlled by the Military Industrial Complex. Both candidates will go to war.

We don't know about Trump. Hiliar? We've seen her foreign policy.

Libya:

Syria:

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/9/23/13008608/clinton-trump-polls

Recent polls suggest Hillary Clinton is still on track to win — but just barely

The presidential race is very close both nationally and in swing states, and though Hillary Clinton appears to have a narrow edge, she doesn’t have much room for error, according to the latest polling averages.

The good news for Clinton is that her recent decline in the polls seems to have halted, for now at least. She apparently has a low single-digit national lead over Donald Trump, and still holds consistent poll leads in enough — just enough — states to give her the presidency.

Yet her bad news is that she remains locked in a tight race and has little room for error, particularly in Electoral College math that no longer looks quite so favorable for her as it once did.

So the big picture is that Clinton remains the favorite to win, as she has been all year. But her lead can no longer be considered truly comfortable.

 

[Denny Crane]

If it ends up this way, it's over and Trump (ugh) wins.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/polit...linton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/index.html

CNN/ORC polls: Trump, Clinton deadlocked in Colorado, Pennsylvania
http://www.cnn.com/profiles/jennifer-agiesta

 

[blue32]

If it ends up this way, it's over and Trump (ugh) wins.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/polit...linton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/index.html

CNN/ORC polls: Trump, Clinton deadlocked in Colorado, Pennsylvania

Works for me.

I know some of you guys want the status quo and for the same families to continue to mess us over, but not this guy. We need a serious shake up to fix some of these messed up policies.

Dude is not perfect, but who is, and do you want an angry menopausal pantsuit running the country?

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...o_270_but_no_vehicle_to_get_there_131890.html

Trump Has Path to 270, But No Vehicle to Get There

 

[blue32]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...o_270_but_no_vehicle_to_get_there_131890.html

Trump Has Path to 270, But No Vehicle to Get There

he's got plenty of golf carts! come on!

 

[Denny Crane]

Nate the Great.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

 

[barfo]

Dude is not perfect, but who is, and do you want an angry menopausal pantsuit running the country?

Hard to understand why people say that some of Trump's supporters are misogynistic.

barfo

 

[blue32]

Hard to understand why people say that some of Trump's supporters are misogynistic.

barfo

not really hard to understand at all.
we might be, and we flat don't give a shit.
hell even my wife says the same thing about hiliar

some people are too sensitive. lol