Official Election 2008 Thread

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Obama won in the first town to vote.

Hasn't gone Demo since 1968.
 
All signs point to a crushing defeat for the Republicans.

barfo
 
I've been thinking about how this thing goes. From what I've seen, the polls don't have likely voter models that are aggressive towards big turnout in favor of Obama. So does the election follow the polls, and Obama wins by like 7%? Were likely voter models that moderately favored a big turnout for Obama wrong, and this is a close race? Is it like the Democratic primaries in states like Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia etc...where it seems kind of close, it seems kind of close, and then bam, Obama overshoots the polls and this is a blow out?
 
I kind of want to see McCain win just to rub it in Obama-nerds faces, but I don't think its gonna happen. Barack should beat that old man to a bloody mess.
 
From Nate Silver, all you can say is ouch for McCain.

With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.

The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.

Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.

Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.

McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.

Our final polling update of the campaign will follow in the early afternoon tomorrow.

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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-113-pm-edition.html
 
I, for one, look forward to the Democrats having no opposition. We'll finally get to see what their vision truly is.
 
Some comic relief.

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yuyuza1 said:
Some comic relief.

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In my opinion, we're going to have at least two years of comic relief.
 
Is anyone watching McCain's rally in Prescott, AZ? The guy seems like he's going to cry.

He knows that he lost. He looks so defeated.

Barring some miracle, given McCain looking defeated, it looks like Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

He might also be having health problems. Like when he was trying to thank Joe Liebermann, he couldn't finish his second.
 
This McCain speech is amazing. The guy either knows he is getting murdered today, or is having health problems.

McCain needs to wrap up this speech and get out of there, because no matter what, this isn't good for him.
 
maxiep said:
I, for one, look forward to the Democrats having no opposition. We'll finally get to see what their vision truly is.
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I thought you voted McCain?:dunno:

Will you be sad if Barack makes your personal, family, and business worlds much better than they have ever been? :ohno:
 
Xericx said:
I kind of want to see McCain win just to rub it in Obama-nerds faces, but I don't think its gonna happen. Barack should beat that old man to a bloody mess.
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Greg Oden is a Nerd????:lol:

Yeah, you tell him to his face.:biglaugh:
 
just went with my wife to stand in line with her while she waited to vote here in Virginia... the line was a mile long before they opened. I sat outside the door to the school and people would walk in and see the line and turn around and leave. I can't believe people didn't think this would happen. Especially with Virginia being close and a state that both parties need. To just turn around knowing that your vote can help is just crazy to me.
 
istolebillwaltonsbike said:
just went with my wife to stand in line with her while she waited to vote here in Virginia... the line was a mile long before they opened. I sat outside the door to the school and people would walk in and see the line and turn around and leave. I can't believe people didn't think this would happen. Especially with Virginia being close and a state that both parties need. To just turn around knowing that your vote can help is just crazy to me.
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I used to live in Loudoun County.
 
istolebillwaltonsbike said:
just went with my wife to stand in line with her while she waited to vote here in Virginia... the line was a mile long before they opened. I sat outside the door to the school and people would walk in and see the line and turn around and leave. I can't believe people didn't think this would happen. Especially with Virginia being close and a state that both parties need. To just turn around knowing that your vote can help is just crazy to me.
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It is possible they'll come back after work or later in the day thinking that many people are trying to get in before work/school.
 
Main Event said:
I used to live in Loudoun County.
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Heard of it... not sure where it is though. Just moved here a few months ago.

The Sebastian Express said:
It is possible they'll come back after work or later in the day thinking that many people are trying to get in before work/school.
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not sure... they have been saying its going to take a while no matter what time you go so set aside some time to wait. I just wouldn't chance it and go back after work.
 
Does anyone know about the residency requirements for senator? I know in 2004, Alan Keyes ran for senator of Illinois, and he's not a resident there. Can they appoint someone like Harold Ford Jr. as senator of Illinois? I know Jesse Jackson Jr. is one of the favorites to fill Barack's spot as well.
 
MARIS61 said:
Greg Oden is a Nerd????:lol:

Yeah, you tell him to his face.:biglaugh:
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I think if you called GO a "nerd" he'd probably embrace it. Have you ever seen those coke bottle glasses of his? The guy wanted to be a dentist. One of the things I like most about him is that for all of the trappings of being an NBA player, he seems to want to be a normal guy.
 
istolebillwaltonsbike said:
just went with my wife to stand in line with her while she waited to vote here in Virginia... the line was a mile long before they opened. I sat outside the door to the school and people would walk in and see the line and turn around and leave. I can't believe people didn't think this would happen. Especially with Virginia being close and a state that both parties need. To just turn around knowing that your vote can help is just crazy to me.
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The City of Alexandria is notorious for having problems with voting, especially on the south and west side of the City. By contrast, voting in Arlington couldn't be easier.
 
Shockingly easy to vote here in Boise. Took me longer to decide on the snacks to buy to help fund the local grade school.

Nothing close to the 2 hours I waited in 2004. I think a lot of people remembered how miserable that was and either voted early or voted by mail.

Overall a fun experience. I'd meant to vote by mail, but it looks like my carefully planned procrastination paid off.
 
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