Official HCP's Win Total Prediction Goes Boom Thread

[e_blazer]

So, should we all chip in and get HCP a new ouija board to help him with future predictions? The Blazers break his 23 win prediction with 32 games yet to play.

 

[THE HCP]

What did you predict?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

What did you predict?

I predicted 27 wins!

I did not make a good prediction.

But I made a better prediction than you did.

 

[riverman]

What did you predict?

19 more wins and you'll be spittin' black feathers dude!

 

[kjironman1]

With Toronto, Houston, Memphis, Houston, and Golden State coming up it might actually be a while until they win another game.

 

[Denny Crane]

Technically, the Blazers did win 23 games.

Just MORE than 23.

 

[e_blazer]

What did you predict?

I predicted 35 wins. If the Blazers do better than 11-19 (which seems likely) the rest of the way, I too will have underestimated them. Just not as badly as you did.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I predicted 35 wins. If the Blazers do better than 11-19 (which seems likely) the rest of the way, I too will have underestimated them. Just not as badly as you did.

Don't know exactly how likely that is, though. 6 of their next 8 games are against teams over .500, preceding a stretch of 15 games in which 12 are on the road, and none of their 3 home games are consecutive. They could win every game in which they're favored and only win 5 of their next 23.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I said 28. Looks like it might be more like 35 when all is said and done.

I guess potentially losing our pick, getting drilled by the Warriors and then being one of 25 teams with a boatload of capspace this off-season is this organization's big plan? Yay?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I said 28. Looks like it might be more like 35 when all is said and done.

I guess potentially losing our pick, getting drilled by the Warriors and then being one of 25 teams with a boatload of capspace this off-season is this organization's big plan? Yay?

Or, perhaps the plan involves finding good young players with potential, putting them in positions to develop and improve together, and then finding ways to turn those improved-value-assets into better even players.

But I'm just spit-balling...

 

[Natebishop3]

I said 28. Looks like it might be more like 35 when all is said and done.

I guess potentially losing our pick, getting drilled by the Warriors and then being one of 25 teams with a boatload of capspace this off-season is this organization's big plan? Yay?

I mean..... What are they supposed to do? Bench dame? The plan was to play our young guys (CJ, Crabbe, Vonleh) and let things fall where they may. The team progressed quicker than anyone thought. The west is very weak this year. Teams like Utah and New Orleans didn't take the step forward like many predicted. What were we supposed to do? Trade talent and tank? It's not like we started veterans. Hendo is coming off the bench. Davis is coming off the bench. We stuck with the plan and it turns out we were better than we thought.


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[e_blazer]

I said 28. Looks like it might be more like 35 when all is said and done.

I guess potentially losing our pick, getting drilled by the Warriors and then being one of 25 teams with a boatload of capspace this off-season is this organization's big plan? Yay?

I say beat the snot out of Houston the two games we play them before the break and let them have the inside track to the Warriors match-up. Not saying we'd beat the Spurs either, but it would sure be fun going up against LA.

 

[THE HCP]

I said 28. Looks like it might be more like 35 when all is said and done.

I guess potentially losing our pick, getting drilled by the Warriors and then being one of 25 teams with a boatload of capspace this off-season is this organization's big plan? Yay?

You honestly think we will make the playoffs Nik? You see our upcoming schedule?

 

[Nikolokolus]

I mean..... What are they supposed to do? Bench dame? The plan was to play our young guys (CJ, Crabbe, Vonleh) and let things fall where they may. The team progressed quicker than anyone thought. The west is very weak this year. Teams like Utah and New Orleans didn't take the step forward like many predicted. What were we supposed to do? Trade talent and tank? It's not like we started veterans. Hendo is coming off the bench. Davis is coming off the bench. We stuck with the plan and it turns out we were better than we thought.


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They're not supposed to do anything. I'm just sort of looking out 2 or 3 years and wondering how it all shakes out. Not to sound like I don't like to see the Blazers win, but if they somehow sneak into the playoffs I get the feeling that in the long-term it's going to be a Pyrrhic victory. C'est la vie.

 

[THE HCP]

I predicted 35 wins. If the Blazers do better than 11-19 (which seems likely) the rest of the way, I too will have underestimated them. Just not as badly as you did.

You said it seems "likely" we will win 11 more games. Like I mentioned in the Jan vs Feb thread, the schedule gets very tough!

 

[Nikolokolus]

You honestly think we will make the playoffs Nik? You see our upcoming schedule?

Probably not, but I also think we're probably going to be picking tenth or eleventh instead of 4-6 like I had hoped. I wanted this team to maximize their chances at a difference maker and maybe (god forbid) get lucky and somehow snag a 1st-3rd pick.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Or, perhaps the plan involves finding good young players with potential, putting them in positions to develop and improve together, and then finding ways to turn those improved-value-assets into better even players.

But I'm just spit-balling...

I think Vonleh still might have a chance to develop into something special in two or three years (maybe?) but guys like Davis, Aminu, and Henderson are the sorts of guys that raise your floor, but don't really raise your ceiling in the long-term. Does that make sense? Getting to .500 or thereabouts versus playing .350 ball on the year doesn't really change these guys into more desirable players for other teams (if you think of them as trade pieces, etc.)

 

[Sedatedfork]

Maybe we could take the W's down. 8 takes down 1. It could happen. I guess?

 

[Natebishop3]

They're not supposed to do anything. I'm just sort of looking out 2 or 3 years and wondering how it all shakes out. Not to sound like I don't like to see the Blazers win, but if they somehow sneak into the playoffs I get the feeling that in the long-term it's going to be a Pyrrhic victory. C'est la vie.

Sure, but you insinuated that making the playoffs was the plan all along, and I don't really think that was the case, otherwise I don't think we would have dealt Batum.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Sure, but you insinuated that making the playoffs was the plan all along, and I don't really think that was the case, otherwise I don't think we would have dealt Batum.

which underscores something I felt when Neil brought in guys like Henderson, Aminu, Davis, et al. If you're going to "fuck up properly" then it's probably better to skip on the high-floor, low-ceiling guys in free agency. It's hard to fault him for looking for value deals and getting guys that can contribute, but I can't help but wonder if we look back in three years and lament the fact that we missed out on a stud like Ben Simmons (or some other guy); sacrificing long-term competitiveness, for short-term gains.

For the record I really doubt we make the playoffs, but with the rest of the West outside of the top 4 teams, being so weak, anything could happen.

 

[Natebishop3]

which underscores something I felt when Neil brought in guys like Henderson, Aminu, Davis, et al. If you're going to "fuck up properly" then it's probably better to skip on the high-floor, low-ceiling guys in free agency. It's hard to fault him for looking for value deals and getting guys that can contribute, but I can't help but wonder if we look back in three years and lament the fact that we missed out on a stud like Ben Simmons (or some other guy); sacrificing long-term competitiveness, for short-term gains.

I don't fault Neil for signing two solid role players to bargain contracts the year before the cap goes up. Having a bench makes the difference between being a legit contender and being a perennial 7th or 8th seed.

The thing is, with Dame/CJ I don't think we were going to get in the bottom 4 of the league. There's just no competing with the Sixers, Lakers, Wolves, and Nets. They've got tanking down to a science. We needed to be significantly worse than we are, and that wasn't going to happen with the core that was in place. So unless Neil did a tear down and traded CJ from the start, I don't think Simmons was in the cards for us.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't fault Neil for signing two solid role players to bargain contracts the year before the cap goes up. Having a bench makes the difference between being a legit contender and being a perennial 7th or 8th seed.

The thing is, with Dame/CJ I don't think we were going to get in the bottom 4 of the league. There's just no competing with the Sixers, Lakers, Wolves, and Nets. They've got tanking down to a science. We needed to be significantly worse than we are, and that wasn't going to happen with the core that was in place. So unless Neil did a tear down and traded CJ from the start, I don't think Simmons was in the cards for us.

You're probably right, but the game theorist in me, would have been much happier with a 10% chance at a top 3 pick, versus a 99% chance of playing free agency musical chairs this summer and being one of the teams left standing around looking stupid, when the music stops.

 

[riverman]

You're probably right, but the game theorist in me, would have been much happier with a 10% chance at a top 3 pick, versus a 99% chance of playing free agency musical chairs this summer and being one of the teams left standing around looking stupid, when the music stops.

I understand the logic but given that, I'm starting to think that if we even stood pat with the current development...we're not going to look stupid at all..now the Lakers and Sixers...they're looking stupid and for some strange reason..nobody want to be a Laker these days...the times are a changin'

 

[Pinwheel1]

Can you imagine if Neil did not sign Aminu, or Davis and got rid of Henderson. Our total Salary would have been about 40 million less than the next closet team. (Utah)

 

[Nikolokolus]

I understand the logic but given that, I'm starting to think that if we even stood pat with the current development...we're not going to look stupid at all..now the Lakers and Sixers...they're looking stupid and for some strange reason..nobody want to be a Laker these days...the times are a changin'

I want to be perfectly clear. I think this team is on a path of respectability - a plug and play team that can get you 45 wins a year in a couple of years if Vonleh develops into a 15/10 guy and a few other guys mature into veterans (Crabbe, CJ, Plumlee, etc.).

There's nothing wrong with that, but that doesn't make Portland a free agent destination and makes me worry that we're going to turn into a treadmill team that never has a chance to sniff a championship. Maybe there's a trade lurking out there that pushes us over the top, but with the way elite players are forcing their way to preferred destinations and even taking shorter deals to retain leverage, it feels like a longshot.

 

[riverman]

I want to be perfectly clear. I think this team is on a path of respectability - a plug and play team that can get you 45 wins a year in a couple of years if Vonleh develops into a 15/10 guy and a few other guys mature into veterans (Crabbe, CJ, Plumlee, etc.).

There's nothing wrong with that, but that doesn't make Portland a free agent destination and makes me worry that we're going to turn into a treadmill team that never has a chance to sniff a championship. Maybe there's a trade lurking out there that pushes us over the top, but with the way elite players are forcing their way to preferred destinations and even taking shorter deals to retain leverage, it feels like a longshot.

It is a long shot...to contend we need probably one more needle mover minimum but we've got assets and cap space to entice an allstar on an underachieving team....I keep coming back to Indiana...they are middle of the pack and not a powerhouse anymore..You add a Paul George to this roster and we're having a different conversation. I think guys around the league are starting to see that Portland is a place where you can enjoy the game. Stotts is a player's coach..no disgruntled locker room bullshit...the Bulls are dysfunctional...according to Pau...horrible locker room. We had that same problem in the lock out season. It's the culture here that's the selling point more than the trimmings of a New York or Chicago gig. Being in New York isn't getting a guy like Melo closer to a ring.

 

[Nikolokolus]

It is a long shot...to contend we need probably one more needle mover minimum but we've got assets and cap space to entice an allstar on an underachieving team....I keep coming back to Indiana...they are middle of the pack and not a powerhouse anymore..You add a Paul George to this roster and we're having a different conversation. I think guys around the league are starting to see that Portland is a place where you can enjoy the game. Stotts is a player's coach..no disgruntled locker room bullshit...the Bulls are dysfunctional...according to Pau...horrible locker room. We had that same problem in the lock out season. It's the culture here that's the selling point more than the trimmings of a New York or Chicago gig. Being in New York isn't getting a guy like Melo closer to a ring.

Ah, I see the problem. I don't think most elite players view the NBA quite like this. Certainly they want a chance to compete for a title and nobody likes playing in a dysfunctional environment, but the reality is that the truly elite level players are brands and businesses unto themselves. A lot of these guys have entourages, and agents that push and pull them in a dozen different directions that have nothing to do with basketball. I think you are under a mistaken impression about the priorities that most of these guys have. Maybe that's overly pessimistic, but I think history is on my side.

 

[riverman]

I think Dame alone has proven you can be a very visible NBA star and have major endorsements with nationwide coverage and play for Portland. Dame is on just about every lead in promo for the NBA....much more than Paul George or Jimmy Butler. Working with a marketing mind like Lillard can't hurt your exposure

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think Dame alone has proven you can be a very visible NBA star and have major endorsements with nationwide coverage and play for Portland. Dame is on just about every lead in promo for the NBA....much more than Paul George or Jimmy Butler. Working with a marketing mind like Lillard can't hurt your exposure

And we drafted him. Convincing an elite guy to come here this summer when there are 25 other teams flush with cap-room doesn't seem like such a good bet.

 

[riverman]

And we drafted him. Convincing an elite guy to come here this summer when there are 25 other teams flush with cap-room doesn't seem like such a good bet.

The fact that we drafted a small school guy under the radar says Olshey has a few tricks up his sleeve...the Clippers really sucked and somehow he pried Chris Paul from New Orleans...stranger things have happened. Cap space or not...some of those big market, underachieving franchises are going to rebuild. I think this offseason is a buyers market for Portland...speaking of cap space...we rule that list by a long stretch.