Official HCP's Win Total Prediction Goes Boom Thread

[Wizard Mentor]

The Blazers are likely to finish with a sub .500 record. Really think about that for a minute.

Media after Tim Duncan's rookie year: "You're not making any trades?" to which Greg Popovich responded "We're trading rookie Tim Duncan for second year player Tim Duncan."

Think about that. No really, think about that. Players can improve, cakes can bake. We have 8 lotto picks on the team already. Our players have high upside:

Lillard, CJ: Allstar
Crabbe, Aminu, Plums, Biebs: just below allstar
Aminu: 1st team all defense

 

[Natebishop3]

In a better than perfect world, we already have like 8 lottery picks with upside.
Oh wait....

Sure, we have eight lottery picks, but how many of them have superstar potential?

One. We have one guy that I think could be one of the top guards in the league. CJ has star potential. I think he could one day be an All-Star. Vonleh projects to be a very solid starter, possibly even an All-Star at some point. Who else on this team would you confidently say could be All-NBA?

 

[Natebishop3]

Media after Tim Duncan's rookie year: "You're not making any trades?" to which Greg Popovich responded "We're trading rookie Tim Duncan for second year player Tim Duncan."

Think about that. No really, think about that. Players can improve, cakes can bake. We have 8 lotto picks on the team already. Our players have high upside:

Lillard, CJ: Allstar
Crabbe, Aminu, Plums, Biebs: just below allstar
Aminu: 1st team all defense

Aminu/Leonard/Plumlee are role players. Nothing more, nothing less. Aminu and Plumlee are solid starters, and that's great. I highly value their talent and contribution, but they're not just below an All-Star. Leonard is a bust thus far. I don't put him anywhere near an All-Star.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Media after Tim Duncan's rookie year: "You're not making any trades?" to which Greg Popovich responded "We're trading rookie Tim Duncan for second year player Tim Duncan."

Think about that. No really, think about that. Players can improve, cakes can bake. We have 8 lotto picks on the team already. Our players have high upside:

Lillard, CJ: Allstar
Crabbe, Aminu, Plums, Biebs: just below allstar
Aminu: 1st team all defense

Say what?!

And even if that were true, it isn't enough to compete for a title.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Sure, we have eight lottery picks, but how many of them have superstar potential?

One. We have one guy that I think could be one of the top guards in the league. CJ has star potential. I think he could one day be an All-Star. Vonleh projects to be a very solid starter, possibly even an All-Star at some point. Who else on this team would you confidently say could be All-NBA?

Serious question: how many all-NBA guys did we have in 1992? In 2000? I wasn't really tracking back then.

 

[Denny Crane]

BOOM!

 

[Natebishop3]

Serious question: how many all-NBA guys did we have in 1992? In 2000? I wasn't really tracking back then.

To be a contender, you have to have at least two guys that can fall into that category. I can't think of the last time that a team won a championship without two All-NBA players. Last year the Warriors had Steph and Klay. They project to possibly have three All-NBA players this season. The year before that, the Spurs had Parker on the All-NBA second team and Kawhi on the All-Defense team. I'm actually surprised Duncan didn't make it, but he was an All-Star none the less.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Serious question: how many all-NBA guys did we have in 1992? In 2000? I wasn't really tracking back then.

Clyde was 1st team all NBA in '92.
Scottie was 2nd team all defense in 2000, and Sheed was an all-star.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

To be a contender, you have to have at least two guys that can fall into that category. I can't think of the last time that a team won a championship without two All-NBA players. Last year the Warriors had Steph and Klay. They project to possibly have three All-NBA players this season. The year before that, the Spurs had Parker on the All-NBA second team and Kawhi on the All-Defense team. I'm actually surprised Duncan didn't make it, but he was an All-Star none the less.

2004 pistons only had Ben Wallace (2nd team)
2005, 2007 Spurs only had Duncan (first team)
2011 Mavs only had Nowitzki (2nd team), although they also had Chandler who was 2nd team all defense

 

[Draco]

Sure, we have eight lottery picks, but how many of them have superstar potential?

One. We have one guy that I think could be one of the top guards in the league. CJ has star potential. I think he could one day be an All-Star. Vonleh projects to be a very solid starter, possibly even an All-Star at some point. Who else on this team would you confidently say could be All-NBA?

Well sure CJ seems like that now... how many here said that 6 months ago? Some thought he was a position-less gimick who couldn't play PG nor SG and at best was a limited 6th man.

Sure Vonleh has potential, I have no idea to what level. Could see him starting on a contender and thats plenty to me.

Who did the Spurs have as an All-NBA team member when they won the title 3 years ago? Or the Pistons last decade? Nobody thought the Warriors had an all-nba prospect 3 years ago.

A lot of revisionist history and results based evaluations.

Sure we'd love to have an MVP player or two but theres a dozen of those guys in a 30 team league.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

@HCP is a Blazer insider and has access to information that we don't have. It's clear that Olshey is going to forfeit some of our earlier wins. HCP just can't come out and tell us that is what is going to happen.

 

[Natebishop3]

I swear to god people are going to be bringing up the Pistons as the one champion example that won without a single superstar player. It was an outlier people. How many examples like the Pistons won before, and how many since?

Have the Spurs had two guys on All-NBA at the same time and won it? Maybe not, but they had three guys who have been All-NBA multiple times.

Manu - All-NBA Third Team: 2008, 2011

Duncan - 15 All-NBA Teams (1997–98 to 2009–10, 2012–13, 2014–15; ten First Team nominations)

Parker - All-NBA Second Team: 2012, 2013, 2014. All-NBA Third Team: 2009

Just because they didn't happen to all three make it in the same year is irrelevant to the point. They have three guys that were perennial All-NBA.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I swear to god people are going to be bringing up the Pistons as the one champion example that won without a single superstar player. It was an outlier people. How many examples like the Pistons won before, and how many since?

Have the Spurs had two guys on All-NBA at the same time and won it? Maybe not, but they had three guys who have been All-NBA multiple times.

Manu - All-NBA Third Team: 2008, 2011

Duncan - 15 All-NBA Teams (1997–98 to 2009–10, 2012–13, 2014–15; ten First Team nominations)

Parker - All-NBA Second Team: 2012, 2013, 2014. All-NBA Third Team: 2009

Just because they didn't happen to all three make it in the same year is irrelevant to the point. They have three guys that were perennial All-NBA.

I'm sorry--I thought you actually wanted an answer to that question. I didn't realize it was just rhetorical.

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm sorry--I thought you actually wanted an answer to that question. I didn't realize it was just rhetorical.

I didn't actually ask a question

What I should have said was All-NBA caliber, not necessarily All-NBA in that particular season, but I forgot that one little word....

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I didn't actually ask a question

What I should have said was All-NBA caliber, not necessarily All-NBA in that particular season, but I forgot that one little word....

The question was implied, unlike the word "caliber".

BTW, to paraphrase @Dan Marang, if CJ can improve his rim finishing and FT rate to position-average levels, he'll be a 25+ ppg scorer. That would give us 2 all-NBA caliber players right there.

 

[Draco]

I swear to god people are going to be bringing up the Pistons as the one champion example that won without a single superstar player. It was an outlier people. How many examples like the Pistons won before, and how many since?

Have the Spurs had two guys on All-NBA at the same time and won it? Maybe not, but they had three guys who have been All-NBA multiple times.

Manu - All-NBA Third Team: 2008, 2011

Duncan - 15 All-NBA Teams (1997–98 to 2009–10, 2012–13, 2014–15; ten First Team nominations)

Parker - All-NBA Second Team: 2012, 2013, 2014. All-NBA Third Team: 2009

Just because they didn't happen to all three make it in the same year is irrelevant to the point. They have three guys that were perennial All-NBA.

The Spurs are a great example because when they beat the Heat none of those three were all-nba level of impact players. It was a collective deep team of evenly talented players just like the Pistons. I'd actually argue Sheed, Rip and Chancy contributed much more to their title than Duncan, Manu, and Parker in 2014. That Spurs team was really much deeper than the Pistons; they had waves of bench subs that never let up. They are one of the historic examples of many lesser players all synergisticly playing together to dominate far more talented stars.

The Mavs were more similar to that Spurs team than a superstar team; nobody thought Dirk was capable of leading a team to those types of playoff victories. He was such a liability on defense and shut down in multiple years of previous playoff appearances. They were picked by many to lose to us in the first round and by most against the Lakers. Certainly nobody else on the roster was a legit allstar or all-nba level player.

Even the Warriors at the start of last year weren't thought of as having a single all-nba level player. Steph was a borderline allstar more similar to CJ than the player he is today. The team played great; improved, far exceeded expectations. Now we look back and regard them as a dominant team with multiple allstars but thats after they won a title.

If I'm building a team I care what players do going forward not acquiring players based on what they have already done.

 

[ripcityboy]

This thread is worth $100 bucks of quality discussion time.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk

 

[Natebishop3]

The Spurs are a great example because when they beat the Heat none of those three were all-nba level of impact players. It was a collective deep team of evenly talented players just like the Pistons. I'd actually argue Sheed, Rip and Chancy contributed much more to their title than Duncan, Manu, and Parker in 2014. That Spurs team was really much deeper than the Pistons; they had waves of bench subs that never let up. They are one of the historic examples of many lesser players all synergisticly playing together to dominate far more talented stars.

The Mavs were more similar to that Spurs team than a superstar team; nobody thought Dirk was capable of leading a team to those types of playoff victories. He was such a liability on defense and shut down in multiple years of previous playoff appearances. They were picked by many to lose to us in the first round and by most against the Lakers. Certainly nobody else on the roster was a legit allstar or all-nba level player.

Even the Warriors at the start of last year weren't thought of as having a single all-nba level player. Steph was a borderline allstar more similar to CJ than the player he is today. The team played great; improved, far exceeded expectations. Now we look back and regard them as a dominant team with multiple allstars but thats after they won a title.

If I'm building a team I care what players do going forward not acquiring players based on what they have already done.

Except Parker WAS All-NBA that year. In fact, I think you forget how much Parker torched us in that series. That was his last hurrah because he has been a shadow since then.

 

[riverman]

I think this is the best example of what's possible without a superstar in sight

 

[Natebishop3]

I think this is the best example of what's possible without a superstar in sight
View attachment 7775

While maybe they didn't have a superstar, those guys were no slouches.

Hamilton was a 3x All-Star.

Billups was a 5x All-Star, he was All-NBA 3x, and he was All-Defense twice.

Ben Wallace was a 4x All-Star, he was All-NBA 4x, and he was defensive player of the year 4x.

Sheed was a 4x All-Star (twice with Detroit)

That's hardly a team of misfits as some people would have you believe.

 

[riverman]

While maybe they didn't have a superstar, those guys were no slouches.

Hamilton was a 3x All-Star.

Billups was a 5x All-Star, he was All-NBA 3x, and he was All-Defense twice.

Ben Wallace was a 4x All-Star, he was All-NBA 4x, and he was defensive player of the year 4x.

Sheed was a 4x All-Star (twice with Detroit)

That's hardly a team of misfits as some people would have you believe.

Billups was trade fodder most of his career...separately this team was comprised of very good vets that just loved to play together...to me it was the right coach with the right roster for his system. I loved all those guys but they were not touted as superstars by any stretch when they joined forces in Detroit

 

[Natebishop3]

Billups was trade fodder most of his career...separately this team was comprised of very good vets that just loved to play together...to me it was the right coach with the right roster for his system. I loved all those guys but they were not touted as superstars by any stretch when they joined forces in Detroit

Ben Wallace was arguably a superstar when he was racking up the DPOY awards. The dude was on the cover of video game boxes. Billups was a star in Detroit. He bounced around a lot before finding a home there.

 

[riverman]

Ben Wallace was arguably a superstar when he was racking up the DPOY awards. The dude was on the cover of video game boxes. Billups was a star in Detroit. He bounced around a lot before finding a home there.

They were all sent packing by their former teams....Orlando sure didn't consider Big Ben a franchise player, Atlanta same with Sheed, Wizards with Rip..Chauncey was considered a basic Gerald Wallace type guy...good player..after they started killing the Heat in multiple eastern conf finals..people paid attention

 

[theprunetang]

Some of the Detroit allstars got the by bring on a winning team. Sheed only made it on team wins. It was a scenario similar to the Hawks of last year, rewarding a winning team. It was a team that played together and we're contenders not by having superstars, but by the synergy of all the parts. I would throw the last spurs championship and the Dallas win into the same category. There is nothing to say the blazers couldn't replicate that eventually.

 

[Nikolokolus]

They were all sent packing by their former teams....Orlando sure didn't consider Big Ben a franchise player, Atlanta same with Sheed, Wizards with Rip..Chauncey was considered a basic Gerald Wallace type guy...good player..after they started killing the Heat in multiple eastern conf finals..people paid attention

What's your point exactly? The best you can assert is that they are the exception to the rule. Do you really think that model is replicable or the way to bet?

 

[Natebishop3]

They were all sent packing by their former teams....Orlando sure didn't consider Big Ben a franchise player, Atlanta same with Sheed, Wizards with Rip..Chauncey was considered a basic Gerald Wallace type guy...good player..after they started killing the Heat in multiple eastern conf finals..people paid attention

Sent packing? Orlando wanted to keep Big Ben.... but they were too busy trying to sign Grant Hill, Tim Duncan, and Tracy McGrady. Detroit swooped in and signed him to a decent contract.

Sheed played in Atlanta for.... what.... a month? They never intended to keep him. Being a franchise player had nothing to do with it. They were rebuilding.

The Wizards drafted Kwame Brown in the same span that they traded Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse.... enough said. Horrible organization at that time.

Chauncey signed with Detroit after having a nice year with the TWolves. They wanted to keep him as well.

 

[riverman]

Sent packing? Orlando wanted to keep Big Ben.... but they were too busy trying to sign Grant Hill, Tim Duncan, and Tracy McGrady. Detroit swooped in and signed him to a decent contract.

Sheed played in Atlanta for.... what.... a month? They never intended to keep him. Being a franchise player had nothing to do with it. They were rebuilding.

The Wizards drafted Kwame Brown in the same span that they traded Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse.... enough said. Horrible organization at that time.

Chauncey signed with Detroit after having a nice year with the TWolves. They wanted to keep him as well.

yeah, but in that era...they were buried behind the Shaqs, Kobes, Wades, etc....they were not top tier superstars at all. I credit Larry Brown for putting them on the map. I don't think one of them got a max deal when they joined forces either..to me a superstar commands a max contract

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The Wizards drafted Kwame Brown in the same span that they traded Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse.... enough said. Horrible organization at that time.

Jerry Stackhouse is exactly the kind of superstar player that everyone wants us to trade for now. Rip for Stack being considered a bad deal now is exactly the kind of thing that people fear in regard to trading Crabbe for an all star.

 

[Natebishop3]

to me a superstar commands a max contract

That's a dangerous measuring stick to wield. Wes Matthews is currently rocking a max contract.

 

[riverman]

That's a dangerous measuring stick to wield. Wes Matthews is currently rocking a max contract.

hah...touche'