Official HCP's Win Total Prediction Goes Boom Thread

[riverman]

Cuban called it the biggest risk he'd taken since trading Steve Nash

 

[Natebishop3]

Jerry Stackhouse is exactly the kind of superstar player that everyone wants us to trade for now. Rip for Stack being considered a bad deal now is exactly the kind of thing that people fear in regard to trading Crabbe for an all star.

Stack was 28 when Washington acquired him, and they brought him in to hopefully help MJ. I don't think we're really looking at guys at the very end of their prime.

Plus, Hamilton was a 20ppg player when Washington dealt him, so it's not like he was a diamond in the rough.

 

[riverman]

Larry Brown got them playing defense at another level from the competition. Perfect chemistry. It's what I hope we achieve in Portland and in my view...doesn't rely on superstar shooters everywhere to succeed.

 

[Natebishop3]

Cuban called it the biggest risk he'd taken since trading Steve Nash

Cuban never traded Steve Nash.

Riverman you need to bone up on your NBA history!

 

[riverman]

Cuban never traded Steve Nash.

Riverman you need to bone up on your NBA history!

my bad...didn't retain Steve Nash

 

[Natebishop3]

my bad...didn't retain Steve Nash

I know it looks bad on paper, but having Kidd on defense really helped get them that ring. Nash was a HORRIBLE defender. Just awful. He would have helped them offensively though. A lot of his success was the D'Antoni system. His numbers in Dallas were average at best. He wouldn't even be considered an All-Star by today's standards.

 

[riverman]

Mavericks' Mark Cuban: Letting Steve Nash Go Is Biggest Regret
by Mike Dyce


Mark Cuban says letting Steve Nash go is his biggest regret as owner of the Dallas Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks had a contender in the early 2000s, reaching the Western Conference Finals in 2003. The following summer after the 2004 playoffs, the Mavericks had a tough situation involving star point guard Steve Nash.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban didn’t want to extend a long-term contract to the then 30-year-old Nash, and offered him a team friendly deal. Nash got a larger contract offer to return to the Phoenix Suns, a six-year $63 million deal.

 

[Natebishop3]

Mavericks' Mark Cuban: Letting Steve Nash Go Is Biggest Regret
by Mike Dyce


Mark Cuban says letting Steve Nash go is his biggest regret as owner of the Dallas Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks had a contender in the early 2000s, reaching the Western Conference Finals in 2003. The following summer after the 2004 playoffs, the Mavericks had a tough situation involving star point guard Steve Nash.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban didn’t want to extend a long-term contract to the then 30-year-old Nash, and offered him a team friendly deal. Nash got a larger contract offer to return to the Phoenix Suns, a six-year $63 million deal.

I think he's too hard on himself. During his last year in Dallas, Nash averaged 14.5 ppg, 8.8 assists, and 3.3 rebounds. Do those numbers jump out at you?

Honestly, I don't even know if he deserves to be in the HOF. Dude's career averages are 14.3 ppg, 8.5 assists, and 3 rebounds. It was the SSOL offense that made him look amazing, and the fact that he was playing with Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, and Shawn Marion in their primes.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

 

[Draco]

While maybe they didn't have a superstar, those guys were no slouches.

Hamilton was a 3x All-Star.

Billups was a 5x All-Star, he was All-NBA 3x, and he was All-Defense twice.

Ben Wallace was a 4x All-Star, he was All-NBA 4x, and he was defensive player of the year 4x.

Sheed was a 4x All-Star (twice with Detroit)

That's hardly a team of misfits as some people would have you believe.

No you can't win a championship with a bunch of mediocre misfits. But can you win with a few borderline allstars and no dominant All-NBA candidates? Yea Billups was All-NBA, but he got that recognition after they won a title and mostly because they won a title. Its another example of results based analysis. When the Pistons team was put together all of those players except Sheed were average NBA starters. Even Sheed was a borderline all-star with major red flags. This notion that the Blazers need to surround Lillard with a proven current perennial all-star, or some future MVP and anything else will result in doom and gloom is silly. There is no one exact formula to build a contender and often teams with some creativity in their roster construction have had the most success.

Players performance cannot be perfectly predicted; sure higher draft picks are good, and have some bit of correlation. But all stars are found at all positions of the draft as Draymond Green was in the second round. Past performance is an indicator, but again only a partial indicator; all stars are found for all sorts of varying costs in trades as someone pointed out Billups was dumped for almost nothing. Future all-stars are also found at a broad range of dollar values in free agency, as Paul Millsap was signed for $9 million, we got Wes for the MLE, and Golden State got finals MVP Iggy at a price other teams were very reluctant to pay.

Certainly teams can win a title with a top level dominant perennial all-star but they can also win without one as the Spurs, Mavs, Pistons in recent times have shown.

There's 30 teams and so few perennial all-stars in the league at one time. Some continue to harp that the key to building a contender is tank for a chance at drafting an MVP level talent. The problem is it can take a decade or much longer to get one; and even when you do get one there is so many more additional parts needed to contend. Thats why since Jordan the Spurs are the only team to win a title with a top 3 pick.

Personally I just want Neil to continue to add the best players incrementally to the team; sure an All-NBA stud would be nice but if we instead got 2 more above average starters, CJ makes an allstar improvement, someone else becomes a key member we would have a contending team and that would be a very enjoyable group to root for.

 

[e_blazer]

"Thats why since Jordan the Spurs are the only team to win a title with a top 3 pick."

LeBron James? Shaq?

 

[Natebishop3]

Certainly teams can win a title with a perennial all-star but they can also win without one as the Spurs, Mavs, Pistons in recent times have shown.

But..... this makes no sense. You say the Spurs, Mavs, and Pistons are proof that you can win a title without a perennial All-Star?

Spurs won in 2014 - Tony Parker was an All-Star and All-NBA.

Mavs won in 2011 - Diark Nowtzki was an All-Star and All-NBA.

Pistons won in 2004 - Ben Wallace was an All-Star starter (2nd most votes) and All-NBA.

 

[Draco]

I think he's too hard on himself. During his last year in Dallas, Nash averaged 14.5 ppg, 8.8 assists, and 3.3 rebounds. Do those numbers jump out at you?

Honestly, I don't even know if he deserves to be in the HOF. Dude's career averages are 14.3 ppg, 8.5 assists, and 3 rebounds. It was the SSOL offense that made him look amazing, and the fact that he was playing with Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, and Shawn Marion in their primes.

He has double the MVP's of Kobe and many other supposed "HOF" players.

He had a lot of average years; but those years in Phoenix he was nearly on the level as Steph Curry today.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

"Thats why since Jordan the Spurs are the only team to win a title with a top 3 pick."

LeBron James? Shaq?

That they drafted. Neither Shaq nor Lebron won a title with the team that drafted them.

 

[Draco]

"Thats why since Jordan the Spurs are the only team to win a title with a top 3 pick."

LeBron James? Shaq?

Cavs and Magic haven't won a title.

 

[e_blazer]

That they drafted. Neither Shaq nor Lebron won a title with the team that drafted them.

Okay. I guess I missed that part of the discussion.

 

[Natebishop3]

He has double the MVP's of Kobe and many other supposed "HOF" players.

He had a lot of average years; but those years in Phoenix he was nearly on the level as Steph Curry today.

Does 5 or 6 really good years out of like 15 get you in the hall?


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[Draco]

But..... this makes no sense. You say the Spurs, Mavs, and Pistons are proof that you can win a title without a perennial All-Star?

Spurs won in 2014 - Tony Parker was an All-Star and All-NBA.

Mavs won in 2011 - Diark Nowtzki was an All-Star and All-NBA.

Pistons won in 2004 - Ben Wallace was an All-Star starter (2nd most votes) and All-NBA.

Wallace made it because there weren't any other centers and the voting was different. Parker was good but he wasn't a dominant allstar. Dirk had a reputation as a great regular season player that couldn't carry his team in the playoffs.

We have Dame who is on the same level to all three of them. He is a multi time allstar and all NBA.

Its only after those teams won titles those players seasons were considered as great as they are now.

If we win a title 10 years from now some other teams fan board will have someone say "Of course those Blazers became contenders Dame was a dominant multi time allstar with series clinching buzzer beaters before they won their titles."

My argument is what other players do we need to add to our roster.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Does 5 or 6 really good years out of like 15 get you in the hall?


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Nash easily goes in the HOF.

 

[Draco]

Does 5 or 6 really good years out of like 15 get you in the hall?

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In his case probably because it had such a revolutionizing effect on the game.

Is there a back to back MVP not in the hall of fame?

 

[Natebishop3]

Nash easily goes in the HOF.

He'd have to have some of he shittiest career averages of the last 20 or 30 years to make it in.


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[SlyPokerDog]

He'd have to have some of he shittiest career averages of the last 20 or 30 years to make it in.


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He's Canadian, give our brothers to the north a break.

 

[Draco]

Okay. I guess I missed that part of the discussion.

Yeah thats why I specifically said in my post;

"Spurs are the only team to win a title with a top 3 pick"

 

[Draco]

He'd have to have some of he shittiest career averages of the last 20 or 30 years to make it in.


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Bill Walton averaged 13 PPG over 12 years.

And 39 games a season.

Nash doesn't come close to the top 10 of most undeserving

Drazen Petrovic
Earl Monroe
Calvin Murphy
Frank Ramsey
Gail Goodrich
Dave Bing
Dennis Rodman
Arvydas Sabonis ;(
Bill Bradley

 

[e_blazer]

Yeah thats why I specifically said in my post;

"Spurs are the only team to win a title with a top 3 pick"

I read it as the only team since Jordan to win with a player who was a top 3 pick. But I get what you're saying. I think historically most of the top players have moved to a team other than the one that drafted them before they were able to win a title. After all, crappy teams tend to get top 3 picks. Before restricted free agency, it was play out the rookie contract and then bye-bye.

 

[Natebishop3]

Bill Walton averaged 13 PPG over 12 years.

And 39 games a season.

Nash doesn't come close to the top 10 of most undeserving

Drazen Petrovic
Earl Monroe
Calvin Murphy
Frank Ramsey
Gail Goodrich
Dave Bing
Dennis Rodman
Arvydas Sabonis ;(
Bill Bradley

This is mostly why I said the last 20-30 years because most of those guys couldn't even begin to hold a candle to the dudes currently in the league.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Media after Tim Duncan's rookie year: "You're not making any trades?" to which Greg Popovich responded "We're trading rookie Tim Duncan for second year player Tim Duncan."

Think about that. No really, think about that. Players can improve, cakes can bake. We have 8 lotto picks on the team already. Our players have high upside:

Lillard, CJ: Allstar
Crabbe, Aminu, Plums, Biebs: just below allstar
Aminu: 1st team all defense

Aminu/Leonard/Plumlee are role players. Nothing more, nothing less. Aminu and Plumlee are solid starters, and that's great. I highly value their talent and contribution, but they're not just below an All-Star. Leonard is a bust thus far. I don't put him anywhere near an All-Star.

Im pretty sure he meant they can bake into that. Not that they are that now. And Im cool with baking that cake too.

 

[BonesJones]

Im pretty sure he meant they can bake into that. Not that they are that now. And Im cool with baking that cake too.

That's like saying the you can throw a pile of dirt into an oven and it can bake into an apple pie. Just not gonna happen haha

 

[3RA1N1AC]

they could have competed for a top 3 pick MAYBE if they hadnt acquired aminu, davis, or plums, and instead replaced those guys with d league all stars.

maybe, but probably not. probably more like 7th or 8th. and if we end up at around the 11th pick, neil has shown he can find a pretty good player around there. is going from 11th to 8th really that big of a deal? worth the cost of punting on an entire offseason/season?

bottom line is we need to get lucky! have crabbe, vonleh or some later pick become an all star. make a fortuitous trade and have them develop into an all star. some shit like that.

 

[BonesJones]

they could have competed for a top 3 pick MAYBE if they hadnt acquired aminu, davis, or plums, and instead replaced those guys with d league all stars.

maybe, but probably not. probably more like 7th or 8th. and if we end up at around the 11th pick, neil has shown he can find a pretty good player around there. is going from 11th to 8th really that big of a deal? worth the cost of punting on an entire offseason/season?

bottom line is we need to get lucky! have crabbe, vonleh or some later pick become an all star. make a fortuitous trade and have them develop into an all star. some shit like that.

Or have Dame become a top 5 player in the league with averages of 27 and 8 with above average defense while McCollum becomes an allstar himself with average D while averaging 21 and 4