On brink vs. the Warriors, Blazers' rebuild still nothing short of amazing

[PtldPlatypus]

Now that they have Thibs I could see that having a decent chance. Before? Meh. Who knows.

Prior to getting Thibs, they had a decent chance of developing the studs they have into a contender. NOW that they have him, it's almost a certainty (barring injury, of course).

Wiggins may be "overrated", but I would argue that he's a better all around player than CJ. KAT is only a rookie, but I'd be willing to bet that if you gave NBA GMs the choice of him or Lillard, KAT would be the choice of the overwhelming majority. Tyus Jones, Ricky Rubio, Zach Lavine, Shabazz Muhammad, and Gorgui Dieng--that's an excellent group of young role players. Plus they're going to add another top-5 pick this summer. Buddy Hield, for instance, will likely be able to contribute from day 1.

Yes, I have no qualms about saying that despite the fact that we won 15 more games than they did this year, unless we pick up a significant addition in free agency, they are closer to being a contender than we are.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Prior to getting Thibs, they had a decent chance of developing the studs they have into a contender. NOW that they have him, it's almost a certainty (barring injury, of course).

Wiggins may be "overrated", but I would argue that he's a better all around player than CJ. KAT is only a rookie, but I'd be willing to bet that if you gave NBA GMs the choice of him or Lillard, KAT would be the choice of the overwhelming majority. Tyus Jones, Ricky Rubio, Zach Lavine, Shabazz Muhammad, and Gorgui Dieng--that's an excellent group of young role players. Plus they're going to add another top-5 pick this summer. Buddy Hield, for instance, will likely be able to contribute from day 1.

Yes, I have no qualms about saying that despite the fact that we won 15 more games than they did this year, unless we pick up a significant addition in free agency, they are closer to being a contender than we are.

I think I am on board with all that but the last sentence. You are saying that next year the Wolves finish higher in the standings than us if we don't make any moves but resign our own guys?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think I am on board with all that but the last sentence. You are saying that next year the Wolves finish higher in the standings than us if we don't make any moves but resign our own guys?

No, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that making the jump from good team to contender is significantly more difficult than making the jump from lottery team to playoff team. The key elements, IMO, to making that jump are efficiency, defense, and a go-to superstar. Even if we have a better record, I think they will be ahead of us in regard to those specific characteristics, primarily because of Thibs (better defensive coach) and Wiggins/Towns (more difficult to stop superstars). And as much as many of us hate him, a distributing PG like Rubio is the absolutely perfect guy to have with their other core players.

IMO, the Wolves will make the jump to 40+ wins next year, and will be a contender by the 2018 season. I don't (yet) have the same level of confidence in this Blazer team being a contender in that same time frame.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

No, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that making the jump from good team to contender is significantly more difficult than making the jump from lottery team to playoff team. The key elements, IMO, to making that jump are efficiency, defense, and a go-to superstar. Even if we have a better record, I think they will be ahead of us in regard to those specific characteristics, primarily because of Thibs (better defensive coach) and Wiggins/Towns (more difficult to stop superstars). And as much as many of us hate him, a distributing PG like Rubio is the absolutely perfect guy to have with their other core players.

IMO, the Wolves will make the jump to 40+ wins next year, and will be a contender by the 2018 season. I don't (yet) have the same level of confidence in this Blazer team being a contender in that same time frame.

So you are saying future contender not next year's contender then I take it? That is what I must have gotten wrong. They can't be a contender when at best getting 6th seed. On paper all the rest makes sense. But they were supposed to make bigger jumps then they have already in the last few years. I say they need to prove it. I not handing them anything (not that they would expect me to I am sure) because they haven't shown anything yet. I agree Thibs could be what breaks them through though.

 

[Orion Bailey]

So you guys are kinda circling back around to this eh?

I hear what you guys are saying, but remember what Minni did at the end of the season. Beat GS at home. Beat us. Went on a terror and now they have Thibs as coach. They will get it together and be a force. They are my biggest concern over the next 5 years.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

So you are saying future contender not next year's contender then I take it? That is what I must have gotten wrong. They can't be a contender when at best getting 6th seed. On paper all the rest makes sense. But they were supposed to make bigger jumps then they have already in the last few years. I say they need to prove it. I not handing them anything (not that they would expect me to I am sure) because they haven't shown anything yet. I agree Thibs could be what breaks them through though.

Sure, if we're talking next year, then yes, there is certainly a greater likelihood that the Blazers are a contender next year than the Wolves. But yes, I understood the question to be future contender, so that's why I went with the Wolves.

Regarding the previous years where they were "supposed to make jumps", most of those years were built around Kevin Love; obviously that's no longer the case. The past couple years have been building years, by anyone's reasonable view. Next year will be as well, as these young pieces and their new coach try to mesh. And who knows, maybe they won't work together well at all. But based on the pieces I see, they're in very good position.

So you guys are kinda circling back around to this eh?

Well, obviously. I mean, I saw MM's question, and instantly thought "Of course it's the Blazers, how could anyone possibly think otherwise?!" But then I saw your post, and it completely changed my thinking.

I commend you on your brilliant insight, and bow to your superior analysis.

 

[blue9]

More like us unless MIN improves. The team has supposedly been going to make the leap every year but doesn't. Who says next year is any different? Or the year after for that matter?

Thibedeau?

I've long scoffed at the idea of MIN being good. But they're no longer being dragged into the depths by Flip/McHale. And they have a bona fide beast in Towns. Not sure about the rest of their roster, but if we can go to the POs with Aminu/Vonleh/Harkless as starters, I think Thibedeau has a decent chance of turning MIN into a decent team.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Sure, if we're talking next year, then yes, there is certainly a greater likelihood that the Blazers are a contender next year than the Wolves. But yes, I understood the question to be future contender, so that's why I went with the Wolves.

Regarding the previous years where they were "supposed to make jumps", most of those years were built around Kevin Love; obviously that's no longer the case. The past couple years have been building years, by anyone's reasonable view. Next year will be as well, as these young pieces and their new coach try to mesh. And who knows, maybe they won't work together well at all. But based on the pieces I see, they're in very good position.



Well, obviously. I mean, I saw MM's question, and instantly thought "Of course it's the Blazers, how could anyone possibly think otherwise?!" But then I saw your post, and it completely changed my thinking.

I commend you on your brilliant insight, and bow to your superior analysis.

Thanks!

*Rubs nails on shirt*...

 

[BonesJones]

Wiggins is a worse defender than CJ and isn't the shooter, distributor, or efficient scorer.

Towns on the other hand ... I thought he was extremely overrated when he was drafted.. Now I think he's a top 3 Center in the league.

 

[B-Roy]

Wiggins is not a worse defender than CJ, let's cut the hyperbole.

 

[Minstrel]

Wiggins has been pretty poor, defensively. I don't know if he's worse than McCollum, but that's not a high bar.

However, McCollum is 4 years older and most experts believe Wiggins has the potential to become a top wing defender. I've never seen anyone suggest the same about McCollum. Even holding your own at ages 19 and 20 in the NBA tends to auger well for the future.

I'd say that the Blazers are clearly the better team now and are likely to be the better team next year, but the Timberwolves are more advanced in terms of the assets you need to win a title. But having those tools has been applied to plenty of teams that eventually went nowhere--the Blazers at one time looked like the next rising dynasty, before Roy and Oden got exiled to the Land of Broken Toys. While Wiggins has elite potential, he may end up more Darius Miles or Lamar Odom than Scottie Pippen or Kobe Bryant. If Wiggins doesn't become a top player and their top pick this year also doesn't become notable, you have one great player in KAT with a good coach and not much more. Most of their remaining "interesting" players are young and athletic but don't look like elite players by any means--they're the kinds of players you hope can fit in around a dynamic Towns-Wiggins duo, like Harrison Barnes types.

The Timberwolves have the flashier and more exciting future, but it's also more boom-or-bust. The Blazers have a much more stable foundation with a star, a very good player in McCollum and a group of solid players. There's not a lot of bust potential and a few smart moves could elevate the team to darkhorse contender--like they were last year before Matthews got hurt.

 

[oldmangrouch]

More like us unless MIN improves. The team has supposedly been going to make the leap every year but doesn't. Who says next year is any different? Or the year after for that matter?

Who is their coach next year? Thibs will make them a threat for the next 3 years or so. The real question is how much long term damage he does in the process.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Yeah, the team with the star player that's made the playoffs more than zero times in his career should get the benefit of the doubt.

Stotts has a career winning % of 49%; Thibs is at 65%. Benefit of the doubt?

I wouldn't want Thibs because of the damage he does to his team/players over the long haul. In the short run, however, he is a very effective coach.

 

[riverman]

Stotts has a career winning % of 49%; Thibs is at 65%. Benefit of the doubt?

I wouldn't want Thibs because of the damage he does to his team/players over the long haul. In the short run, however, he is a very effective coach.

Stotts coached two bottom feeders and 2 rebuilds in Portland...two .most of his career in the Western conf except the short Atlanta gig...not really a fair comparison...Thibs has coached one team in the eastern conference loaded with talent when he got there and got fired

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I'd be curious to know if people HONESTLY think which of Portland or Minnesota is closer to being a contender.

Portland has Dame and CJ, the Wolves have Wiggins and Towns.

First of all, great to see you back.

Nobody would be surprised if Minny's record was much, much better next year.
Nobody would be surprised if Minny's record was much the same as next year.

 

[Trackjack]

P

I'd be curious to know if people HONESTLY think which of Portland or Minnesota is closer to being a contender.

Portland has Dame and CJ, the Wolves have Wiggins and Towns.

Portland due to they have better supporting cast then Minnesota right now. Plus portland already in winning environment and Minnesota still have to learn to win.

 

[CommodoreG]

I really enjoyed watching this young team grow and surprise a lot of people (even me) this season. Even considering how fortunate we were in the first round, it's still pretty amazing that this team is where it is. An underdog, our underdog going toe-to-toe with the champs. It's pretty exciting!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I really enjoyed watching this young team grow and surprise a lot of people (even me) this season. Even considering how fortunate we were in the first round, it's still pretty amazing that this team is where it is. An underdog, our underdog going toe-to-toe with the champs. It's pretty exciting!

Welcome to RipCityTwo! Great first post!

 

[CommodoreG]

Welcome to RipCityTwo! Great first post!

Thanks, dawg.

 

[riverman]

Welcome CommodoreG...! That was a good first post....any relation to PapaG?

 

[KingSpeed]

In before one of the board "realists" point out that this has only been possible because the bottom half of the West has dropped off dramatically from recent years, other teams' injuries contributed to the Blazers getting the 5th seed and getting past the Clippers, blah, blah, blah.

It's been an amazing accomplishment that no one saw coming.

I did and I'll tell you why. First, our two best players from the playoffs series vs the Grizzlies- CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard- were still on the team. And of course, we still had Dame. Second, the additions were underrated. We got a Team USA center for our draft pick so right off the bat while everyone focused on whom we had lost, we had improved at SG and C. Third, Batum was coming off a horrible year while Aminu was coming off a year in which he, like CJ, had exploded during the playoffs. Adding Ed Davis and Henderson, Olshey significantly improved our bench. Then we had three unknown talents with potential in Harkless, Vonleh, and Crabbe. Two of them became very good NBA players this season though we didn't know that at the time. Crabbe showed signs during summer league though. The only problem with our starting lineup was PF but we had Leonard, Vonleh, and Harkless to compete for time at that position. We were obviously not going to have an All Star at this position though. Then there were intangibles. It was revealed that everyone in the organization including Dame had to tip toe around Aldridge's fragile ego and there was a reported "sigh of relief" when he left. Dame was excited to take over the leadership role and he demonstrated that right away by getting the whole team together in San Diego in September.

Knowing all of this, I decided to do what I rarely do: watch preseason basketball games. I was curious about all these new players and roles. So I watched our game against the Warriors. The Warriors played all of their starters and they were competing hard but we completely destroyed them nonetheless, scoring more than 70 points in the first half. Many people in this forum thought we'd struggle to score this season but the early evidence was proving them wrong. Then I watched us play the Clippers. Again, the Clippers were playing their stars and clearly competiting but we blitzed THEM too. We ended up blowing our 30 point lead and losing that game, but our potential based on the fact that we got that big lead was very encouraging.

I told everyone it was clear that we were a better, faster, more athletic, deeper team than last year and I was mocked and just told "it's just preseason" when it was clear there were very positive signs we'd be a good team. Nonetheless, HCP picked 23 wins, MM 24 wins, Nate 32 wins, and Vegas 26 wins. But then opening night happened. Now, no one could use the "it's just preseason" excuse." We destroyed a New Orleans team led by everyone's presumptive MVP Anthony Davis. We scored 40+ in the first quarter and CJ looked like the guy we saw in the playoffs vs Memphis. The offensive powerhouse I saw against GS and LAC in the preseason was on display in an official regular season game. And that's when I had my "NOW do you understand" moment and was still mocked. Nothing and I mean nothing has surprised me about this season.

 

[CommodoreG]

Welcome CommodoreG...! That was a good first post....any relation to PapaG?

Thanks! And no, there's no relation, well, not that I know of.

I've always been taller than most throughout my life, while my parents were short, so my Dad always joked about my height coming from the milkman, so who knows? Was PapaG ever a milkman?

 

[KingSpeed]

Thanks! And no, there's no relation, well, not that I know of.

I've always been taller than most throughout my life, while my parents were short, so my Dad always joked about my height coming from the milkman, so who knows? Was PapaG ever a milkman?

Dead giveaway. PapaG is back, folks!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Thanks! And no, there's no relation, well, not that I know of.

I've always been taller than most throughout my life, while my parents were short, so my Dad always joked about my height coming from the milkman, so who knows? Was PapaG ever a milkman?

He was a gluten-free vegan pizza delivery bicyclist.

 

[CommodoreG]

Dead giveaway. PapaG is back, folks!

While I'd love to humor you and keep this tangent going, I don't wanna disappoint anybody here thinking I might be that guy. I'm definitely new here. Or at least, this is the first time I've created an account. I've been lurking on this board for over a year, just never got the urge to create an account until now.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

While I'd love to humor you and keep this tangent going, I don't wanna disappoint anybody here thinking I might be that guy. I'm definitely new here. Or at least, this is the first time I've created an account. I've been lurking on this board for over a year, just never got the urge to create an account until now.

Take it as a compliment. PapaG is a bit of a folk hero around here.

 

[e_blazer]

I did and I'll tell you why. First, our two best players from the playoffs series vs the Grizzlies- CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard- were still on the team. And of course, we still had Dame. Second, the additions were underrated. We got a Team USA center for our draft pick so right off the bat while everyone focused on whom we had lost, we had improved at SG and C. Third, Batum was coming off a horrible year while Aminu was coming off a year in which he, like CJ, had exploded during the playoffs. Adding Ed Davis and Henderson, Olshey significantly improved our bench. Then we had three unknown talents with potential in Harkless, Vonleh, and Crabbe. Two of them became very good NBA players this season though we didn't know that at the time. Crabbe showed signs during summer league though. The only problem with our starting lineup was PF but we had Leonard, Vonleh, and Harkless to compete for time at that position. We were obviously not going to have an All Star at this position though. Then there were intangibles. It was revealed that everyone in the organization including Dame had to tip toe around Aldridge's fragile ego and there was a reported "sigh of relief" when he left. Dame was excited to take over the leadership role and he demonstrated that right away by getting the whole team together in San Diego in September.

Knowing all of this, I decided to do what I rarely do: watch preseason basketball games. I was curious about all these new players and roles. So I watched our game against the Warriors. The Warriors played all of their starters and they were competing hard but we completely destroyed them nonetheless, scoring more than 70 points in the first half. Many people in this forum thought we'd struggle to score this season but the early evidence was proving them wrong. Then I watched us play the Clippers. Again, the Clippers were playing their stars and clearly competiting but we blitzed THEM too. We ended up blowing our 30 point lead and losing that game, but our potential based on the fact that we got that big lead was very encouraging.

I told everyone it was clear that we were a better, faster, more athletic, deeper team than last year and I was mocked and just told "it's just preseason" when it was clear there were very positive signs we'd be a good team. Nonetheless, HCP picked 23 wins, MM 24 wins, Nate 32 wins, and Vegas 26 wins. But then opening night happened. Now, no one could use the "it's just preseason" excuse." We destroyed a New Orleans team led by everyone's presumptive MVP Anthony Davis. We scored 40+ in the first quarter and CJ looked like the guy we saw in the playoffs vs Memphis. The offensive powerhouse I saw against GS and LAC in the preseason was on display in an official regular season game. And that's when I had my "NOW do you understand" moment and was still mocked. Nothing and I mean nothing has surprised me about this season.

By "no one", I meant none of the national commentators. But, yes, you have been consistent in predicting success from the start of preseason.

 

[KingSpeed]

By "no one", I meant none of the national commentators. But, yes, you have been consistent in predicting success from the start of preseason.

Yes. Most of the "national commentators" don't pay attention to the league in depth. They're like HCP. LeBron to Miami? They'll win 75! Aldridge leaves Portland? They'll win 23! They just look at the surface and overreact.

I made money for sports writing many years ago. I may go back into that field at some point.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I did and I'll tell you why. First, our two best players from the playoffs series vs the Grizzlies- CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard- were still on the team. And of course, we still had Dame. Second, the additions were underrated. We got a Team USA center for our draft pick so right off the bat while everyone focused on whom we had lost, we had improved at SG and C. Third, Batum was coming off a horrible year while Aminu was coming off a year in which he, like CJ, had exploded during the playoffs. Adding Ed Davis and Henderson, Olshey significantly improved our bench. Then we had three unknown talents with potential in Harkless, Vonleh, and Crabbe. Two of them became very good NBA players this season though we didn't know that at the time. Crabbe showed signs during summer league though. The only problem with our starting lineup was PF but we had Leonard, Vonleh, and Harkless to compete for time at that position. We were obviously not going to have an All Star at this position though. Then there were intangibles. It was revealed that everyone in the organization including Dame had to tip toe around Aldridge's fragile ego and there was a reported "sigh of relief" when he left. Dame was excited to take over the leadership role and he demonstrated that right away by getting the whole team together in San Diego in September.

Knowing all of this, I decided to do what I rarely do: watch preseason basketball games. I was curious about all these new players and roles. So I watched our game against the Warriors. The Warriors played all of their starters and they were competing hard but we completely destroyed them nonetheless, scoring more than 70 points in the first half. Many people in this forum thought we'd struggle to score this season but the early evidence was proving them wrong. Then I watched us play the Clippers. Again, the Clippers were playing their stars and clearly competiting but we blitzed THEM too. We ended up blowing our 30 point lead and losing that game, but our potential based on the fact that we got that big lead was very encouraging.

I told everyone it was clear that we were a better, faster, more athletic, deeper team than last year and I was mocked and just told "it's just preseason" when it was clear there were very positive signs we'd be a good team. Nonetheless, HCP picked 23 wins, MM 24 wins, Nate 32 wins, and Vegas 26 wins. But then opening night happened. Now, no one could use the "it's just preseason" excuse." We destroyed a New Orleans team led by everyone's presumptive MVP Anthony Davis. We scored 40+ in the first quarter and CJ looked like the guy we saw in the playoffs vs Memphis. The offensive powerhouse I saw against GS and LAC in the preseason was on display in an official regular season game. And that's when I had my "NOW do you understand" moment and was still mocked. Nothing and I mean nothing has surprised me about this season.

Great post. You know, this is the first season I watched any ( and I watched all of them) preseason games. I saw many of the same things and could tell this team was been very much underrated by the vast majority. The preseason games just showed so much hustle and fight.

 

[KingSpeed]

Great post. You know, this is the first season I watched any ( and I watched all of them) preseason games. I saw many of the same things and could tell this team was been very much underrated by the vast majority. The preseason games just showed so much hustle and fight.

Thanks.