Exclusive Ongoing Struggle: Can the Blazers win in the Playoffs?

[TBpup]

The Blazers are on pace to better last years record and get to 50 wins....but the question that keeps bothering me is, "Will it make a difference?"

They have DESTROYED the East to the tune of a 19-5 record, but in their own conference, they are a current Western Conference Playoff seed worst 20-21. Even the #8 Clippers are better at 24-20.

So while they will make the Playoffs and still have a shot at #3, will it matter come Playoff time when whomever they play, may very well have a better record than them versus the very Playoff teams they are now matched up against.

Below is a record against each Playoff team in the West. Since it has been pointed out that the Blazers play a number of teams who are missing a player, I wanted to see if that made a difference. A note is made if a starter was missing for either team. In only one case (against the Nuggets) were the Blazers missing a starter.

Record Vs - Warriors (2-2)
L on road, (w/o Curry and Cousins)
W on road (Cousins out)
L at home (Cousins out)
W at home (Cousins out)
Blazers have yet to play a full Warriors roster. Cousins hasn't been great but he has size and Nurkic has ABUSED Looney.

Vs - Nuggets (0-2...so far)
L at home,
L on road (Harkless out)

Vs - Thunder (0-4)
L at Home
L on road
L on road (George out)
L at home

Vs - Rockets (2-1)
W on road, (Harden out)
L on road
W at home (Paul out)

Vs - Jazz (2-2)
L at home
L on road
W on road
W at home

Vs - Spurs (2-1)
W at home
L on road
W at home

Vs - Clippers (1-1)
L on road
W on road

Remaining WC Playoff games:
@ Clippers
@ Spurs
@Denver
Denver

Home: 5-5
Road: 4-8

So far that is a 9-13 against the very teams they have to play come post season time. Of those 9 wins, the opponent was missing a starter in 4 of them. In the losses, the Blazers were missing a starter in 1 game. So healthy roster to healthy roster, the Blazers are 5-12 against Western Conference Playoff teams this year. Why might that number seem a bit familiar? It is very similar to something posted a week or so ago regarding the Blazers playoff record under Stotts since Dame/CJ became the starting backcourt....5-14.

This isn't a recent reaction, it is a season(s) long issue that cast the light of reality on what we might expect in the Playoff. If the Blazers can get HCA, that should help, but we saw that last year it didn't help at all and so far this season, the Blazers are only 5-5 against WC Playoff teams at home. That does not bode well for breaking out of their ongoing Playoff funk.

I tried to find multiple different ways of looking at this to provide more confidence but without putting on Rose-colored glasses, nothing really stood out. Since adding Hood/Kanter, they have only played on WCP team and that was last night against the Thunder. That was a close, hard-fought, winnable game and I can't put anything on the refs as the Blazer shot nearly 50 FT's.

As much as I can 'hope', I don't see a lot this year that has changed other than the Blazers really torched the East.....but that isn't going to do them much good in the tough Western Conference Playoffs.

Are we stuck with Playoff misery again?

 

[Hoopguru]

The Blazers are on pace to better last years record and get to 50 wins....but the question that keeps bothering me is, "Will it make a difference?"

They have DESTROYED the East to the tune of a 19-5 record, but in their own conference, they are a current Western Conference Playoff seed worst 20-21. Even the #8 Clippers are better at 24-20.

So while they will make the Playoffs and still have a shot at #3, will it matter come Playoff time when whomever they play, may very well have a better record than them versus the very Playoff teams they are now matched up against.

Below is a record against each Playoff team in the West. Since it has been pointed out that the Blazers play a number of teams who are missing a player, I wanted to see if that made a difference. A note is made if a starter was missing for either team. In only one case (against the Nuggets) were the Blazers missing a starter.

Record Vs - Warriors (2-2)
L on road, (w/o Curry and Cousins)
W on road (Cousins out)
L at home (Cousins out)
W at home (Cousins out)
Blazers have yet to play a full Warriors roster. Cousins hasn't been great but he has size and Nurkic has ABUSED Looney.

Vs - Nuggets (0-2...so far)
L at home,
L on road (Harkless out)

Vs - Thunder (0-4)
L at Home
L on road
L on road (George out)
L at home

Vs - Rockets (2-1)
W on road, (Harden out)
L on road
W at home (Paul out)

Vs - Jazz (2-2)
L at home
L on road
W on road
W at home

Vs - Spurs (2-1)
W at home
L on road
W at home

Vs - Clippers (1-1)
L on road
W on road

Remaining WC Playoff games:
@ Clippers
@ Spurs
@Denver
Denver

Home: 5-5
Road: 4-8

So far that is a 9-13 against the very teams they have to play come post season time. Of those 9 wins, the opponent was missing a starter in 4 of them. In the losses, the Blazers were missing a starter in 1 game. So healthy roster to healthy roster, the Blazers are 5-12 against Western Conference Playoff teams this year. Why might that number seem a bit familiar? It is very similar to something posted a week or so ago regarding the Blazers playoff record under Stotts since Dame/CJ became the starting backcourt....5-14.

This isn't a recent reaction, it is a season(s) long issue that cast the light of reality on what we might expect in the Playoff. If the Blazers can get HCA, that should help, but we saw that last year it didn't help at all and so far this season, the Blazers are only 5-5 against WC Playoff teams at home. That does not bode well for breaking out of their ongoing Playoff funk.

I tried to find multiple different ways of looking at this to provide more confidence but without putting on Rose-colored glasses, nothing really stood out. Since adding Hood/Kanter, they have only played on WCP team and that was last night against the Thunder. That was a close, hard-fought, winnable game and I can't put anything on the refs as the Blazer shot nearly 50 FT's.

As much as I can 'hope', I don't see a lot this year that has changed other than the Blazers really torched the East.....but that isn't going to do them much good in the tough Western Conference Playoffs.

Are we stuck with Playoff misery again?

Im sure players, coaches, management know they must get out of the first round or big changes are possible.
We will have to see if they can get their synergy back and get some momentum going into a great first round series, with whoever.

 

[James lamphear]

To get out 1st round we need our wings to show up. Plus the bench needs to get in sync with 2 new players. We need somone be play maker right now we don't have one and it showing too. This was supposed be Turner job he been out lately. You can really tell Hood and Kanter are confused out there on the offensive side of the floor. But they got 17 more games to get it straight if not I don't see them get past the 1st round.

 

[TBpup]

Im sure players, coaches, management know they must get out of the first round or big changes are possible.
We will have to see if they can get their synergy back and get some momentum going into a great first round series, with whoever.

That is the thing, they haven't really had 'synergy' all season against teams they would play in the Playoffs. They made mincemeat of the East and that is good. But we know what the East is for the most part. A conference where LeBron can get to the Finals 8 years in a row but when he comes to the West, he is currently sitting at #11.

 

[Hoopguru]

That is the thing, they haven't really had 'synergy' all season against teams they would play in the Playoffs. They made mincemeat of the East and that is good. But we know what the East is for the most part. A conference where LeBron can get to the Finals 8 years in a row but when he comes to the West, he is currently sitting at #11.

I agree, their Conference and division records reflect that for sure.
If we lay an egg going forward I'd guess that major changes are going to happen.

 

[TBpup]

I agree, their Conference and division records reflect that for sure.
If we lay an egg going forward I'd guess that major changes are going to happen.

It's sad that IMO, this should have happened last year after the Pelicans debacle. If they lose in the first round again, this season would have been almost a complete waste of a year.

 

[Propagandist]

Finals! Here we come!

 

[riverman]

If they lose in the first round again, this season would have been almost a complete waste of a year.

That's a harsh way to look at enjoying a basketball season in my view....Jake Layman alone is worth this season's progress....sure we want playoff success..what I couldn't do is project failure this early or see development as a waste....long view. People are going to be impatient with Hood and Kanter until they are integrated into the system. It will take some time to get them sharp for the post season and I'm stoked about our playoff prospects ...with absolutely no reason not to be..I'm sick of the Pelicans sweep narrative myself...moved on long ago...Sure we can win in the playoffs and I'm thinking we will win this post season...what I'd hate to see us ever doing would be more like tanking for the draft

 

[e_blazer]

I don't think that records against other teams in the West from earlier in the season mean much. The team is significantly better with the addition of Kanter and Hood.

 

[illmatic99]

The team is significantly better with the addition of Kanter and Hood.

Debatable.

 

[Propagandist]

Debatable.

Maybe as an exercise...

 

[illmatic99]

Maybe as an exercise...

Not really. It's pretty unambiguous actually.

 

[riverman]

Not really. It's pretty unambiguous actually.
View attachment 25108

yeah...problem with this chart is it's like the chart that had Jake Layman the best player in the world after 17 minutes in his rookie opener...

 

[illmatic99]

yeah...problem with this chart is it's like the chart that had Jake Layman the best player in the world after 17 minutes in his rookie opener...

Yes, and Kanter has played 132 minutes. Not 17. It's pretty remarkable how bad he is.

 

[riverman]

Yes, and Kanter has played 132 minutes. Not 17. It's pretty remarkable how bad he is.

he joined the team on the road without a practice...Jake had summer league and training camp before that game.....I think judging Enes from this stage as a Blazer is sort of silly...Hood as well..

 

[illmatic99]

he joined the team on the road without a practice...Jake had summer league and training camp before that game.....I think judging Enes from this stage as a Blazer is sort of silly

Some of us saw this coming. It was a bad fit from the start. And he whines when he doesn't play.

 

[CupWizier]

That's a harsh way to look at enjoying a basketball season in my view....Jake Layman alone is worth this season's progress....sure we want playoff success..what I couldn't do is project failure this early or see development as a waste....long view. People are going to be impatient with Hood and Kanter until they are integrated into the system. It will take some time to get them sharp for the post season and I'm stoked about our playoff prospects ...with absolutely no reason not to be..I'm sick of the Pelicans sweep narrative myself...moved on long ago...Sure we can win in the playoffs and I'm thinking we will win this post season...what I'd hate to see us ever doing would be more like tanking for the draft

It floors me that people aren't enjoying this season (and with all the whining from certain posters) it appears there are several who only look for negatives and reasons for not having success rather than enjoy a team that has been very competitive, fun to watch and have performed better than most expected. Pretty sad.

 

[Natebishop3]

Every team knows they only have to double Dame and we struggle. Nothing has changed.

 

[CupWizier]

Every team knows they only have to double Dame and we struggle. Nothing has changed.

and yet our record is one of the better records in the NBA. Must be because of all the great fan support the team gets in this forum.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

We've Seen Hood have a couple of good games, and Kanter I guess helps on the boards. How is that much different than what we saw from Nik and Zach? Kanter and Zach are just opposites, one can't play offense (yet) and one can't play defense. I think Hood is an upgrade because he's stronger, and longer and plays better defense.

You could make an argument that Kanter's defense was better last night, but it was still not "good".

I'm not saying the season is over, but this was a really bad week for them, road trip went well overall not denying that, but losing to Memphis and OKC (at home), probably means they aren't getting HCA. Which really points to the broader picture, they don't have tiebreakers with basically anybody, because they've been very mediocre against the conference and frankly just bad vs their division.

Kenny and Charles were out of their minds last night about the finals, I think we all know that...

 

[TBpup]

That's a harsh way to look at enjoying a basketball season in my view....Jake Layman alone is worth this season's progress....sure we want playoff success..what I couldn't do is project failure this early or see development as a waste....long view. People are going to be impatient with Hood and Kanter until they are integrated into the system. It will take some time to get them sharp for the post season and I'm stoked about our playoff prospects ...with absolutely no reason not to be..I'm sick of the Pelicans sweep narrative myself...moved on long ago...Sure we can win in the playoffs and I'm thinking we will win this post season...what I'd hate to see us ever doing would be more like tanking for the draft

1. Jake did progress....but it almost seemed completely against Stotts' will. Few minutes, DNP's, even when he was playing well. Then he started to get minutes when it was all but impossible to keep him out but certainly not held to the same standards as other players when they may have an 'off' game. Now with Kanter buried in the lane, the back-cuts, lobs, almost any movement that Jake excelled at are almost entirely gone.

2. This is a season long view....and goes back even farther than that. Kanter being integrated uses the 'long' view that he has been terrible defensively all of his career....that is not likely to change, especially with a Coach who isn't exactly defensive minded.

3. The Pelicans' narrative doesn't exist in a vacuum. It is a symptom of larger issues that haven't changed. So to repeat the same things with the same coach, same philosophy and same players doesn't seem like 'moving on'.

4. Tanking was never part of this discussion so not sure what that is referring to.

I don't think that records against other teams in the West from earlier in the season mean much. The team is significantly better with the addition of Kanter and Hood.

Better how? Offensively....maybe. Certainly not defensively with what Kanter has brought and that is easily provable. As for Hood, he's had 2 good games and quite a few 'meh' games along with a couple of stinkers. His style doesn't really fit with how Dame/CJ play nor does it fit with Kanter well either.

 

[riverman]

3. The Pelicans' narrative doesn't exist in a vacuum. It is a symptom of larger issues that haven't changed. So to repeat the same things with the same coach, same philosophy and same players doesn't seem like 'moving on'.

I simply disagree with this...my tanking statement was in reference to wasted seasons....which I think is the only real wasted season move. That you see this season as wasted is hard for me to understand but hey....I get that a lot...I like Stotts as well which always puts me in this conversation

 

[TBpup]

I simply disagree with this...my tanking statement was in reference to wasted seasons....which I think is the only real wasted season move.

We'll have to just agree to disagree. Being buried in purgatory during a season during Dame's prime is a waste to me.

 

[riverman]

Being buried in purgatory

To me the Suns or Knicks are that team...we're right in the hunt in the toughest neighborhood in the league

 

[e_blazer]

Debatable.

Guess I should say, potentially significantly better. They didn't play well last night. They are both capable of playing significantly better. The bench in general played poorly last night. They'll have to be better.

 

[TBpup]

To me the Suns or Knicks are that team...we're right in the hunt in the toughest neighborhood in the league

Purgatory to me is being stuck in the middle going no where. The Suns and Knicks are no where near the middle. They will get top Lottery picks with the chance at Zion or Barrett. Also, the Knicks have a TON of cap room so they can make changes. It doesn't guarantee anything but at least they have the opportunity to change/grow/make major impact.

One area they are the same is that the Blazers, Suns and Knicks have all won the same amount of playoff games in the last couple of years. Certainly not the company you want to keep.

 

[illmatic99]

The point differential is probably a better indicator for our performance in the playoffs than win loss records. We haven't really been blown out much. A few calls and bounces going our way would have changed the whole premise.

GSW:
- 29
+1
-10
+22

Net: -16 for 4 games.

DEN:
-1
-3

Net: -4 for 2 games.

OKC:
-2
-9
-9
-8


Net: -28 for 4 games

HOU:
+19
-7
+9

Net: + 21 for 3 games

UTA:
-11
-30
+21
+5

Net: -15 for 4 games

SAS:
+13
-13
+9

Net: + 9 for 3 games

LAC (we are 2-1, not 1-1):
+11
-4
+4

Net: +11 for 3 games


And most of the blowout losses came earlier in the season. I think we're fine as long as we keep our expectations in check. We are nothing more than a team that might win its first round series if the matchup is favorable.

 

[TBpup]

Guess I should say, potentially significantly better. They didn't play well last night. They are both capable of playing significantly better. The bench in general played poorly last night. They'll have to be better.

They will play better against the Suns.....a team that won't be an option in the Playoffs.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

As I said in the Thunder game thread, last night's game really was the playoff litmus test for the team. Every top tier team in the West has at least two Superstars and a Star-level 3rd option that you have to deal with. OKC has Westbrook and George, and Steven Adams as their 3rd. The Blazers failed the test last night.

In a lot of ways, I am MOST disheartened by Lillard's performance. 51/5/9 and a loss. I don't care what he says, he is not going to stand for this for very long. I don't care how tight he is with his boys, how much loyalty he feels towards Portland and the Blazers... the sound of a ticking clock on his career is getting louder and one day ha's gonna wake up and realize that he's incomplete without that ring, and that he's not going to win it in Portland... not with the surrounding cast he has. CJ with zero assists? That should never happen. Aminu and Harkless are bench guys masquing as starters. Hard workers, to be sure and to give them credit, but when you are trying to get out of the first round in this conference? Not enough.

I don't know how the team re-invents itself after this loss. CJ can't suddenly become more than he is, which needs to be that 2nd Superstar to compliment Dame. Nurk isn't there yet, either, but he seems to have more potential to drive himself higher. I think we are at CJ's ceiling. Stotts, for all the hate he gets in here is a decent coach, but he's polished the turd to about it's shiniest right now.

 

[TBpup]

The point differential is probably a better indicator for our performance in the playoffs than win loss records. We haven't really been blown out much. A few calls and bounces going our way would have changed the whole premise.

GSW:
- 29
+1
-10
+22

Net: -9 for 4 games.

DEN:
-1
-3

Net: -4 for 2 games.

OKC:
-2
-9
-9
-8


Net: -28 for 4 games

HOU:
+19
-7
+9

Net: + 21 for 3 games

UTA:
-11
-30
+21
+5

Net: -15 for 4 games

SAS:
+13
-13
+9

Net: + 9 for 3 games

LAC (we are 2-1, not 1-1):
+11
-4
+4

Net: +11 for 3 games


And most of the blowout losses came earlier in the season. I think we're fine.

I like that they have been in a lot of games. Not a fan of them not being able to finish a lot of those games. So we were close but couldn't quite pull it off. Again, that goes in the category of the 'hope' I was referencing. Things could get better and I 'hope' they do but the season long examples haven't shown that is likely to happen.