Exclusive Ongoing Struggle: Can the Blazers win in the Playoffs?

[illmatic99]

I like that they have been in a lot of games. Not a fan of them not being able to finish a lot of those games. So we were close but couldn't quite pull it off. Again, that goes in the category of the 'hope' I was referencing. Things could get better and I 'hope' they do but the season long examples haven't shown that is likely to happen.

As I added to that post above, we just need to keep our expectations in control. We are not a finals team, and are not a contender for the WCF. We may win our first round-- that's the absolute ceiling.

 

[Natebishop3]

and yet our record is one of the better records in the NBA. Must be because of all the great fan support the team gets in this forum.

That meant a lot last year, didn't it?

 

[illmatic99]

That meant a lot last year, didn't it?

Exactly. regular season win-loss record is fairly meaningless. Have to consider more how we won/lost, and that too is not a perfect predictor.

Even that year we beat HOU on Dame's shot, I believe HOU won that regular season series fairly handily. All has to do with matchups.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

Exactly. regular season win-loss record is fairly meaningless. Have to consider more how we won/lost, and that too is not a perfect predictor.

Even that year we beat HOU on Dame's shot, I believe HOU won that regular season series fairly handily. All has to do with matchups.

Let's also not forget that the other first round win that the Blazers have had recently came when both CP3 and Griffin got injured in the Clippers series.

 

[e_blazer]

They will play better against the Suns.....a team that won't be an option in the Playoffs.

I get that you and a lot of other folks around here are down on the team after these past two losses. Understandable, but not necessarily reflective of what the team can/will do going forward. Both Hood and Kanter have played significantly better in the past for other teams. I think it's certainly a reasonable argument that they can be expected to play better going forward, but it remains to be proven.

 

[TBpup]

I get that you and a lot of other folks around here are down on the team after these past two losses. Understandable, but not necessarily reflective of what the team can/will do going forward. Both Hood and Kanter have played significantly better in the past for other teams. I think it's certainly a reasonable argument that they can be expected to play better going forward, but it remains to be proven.

But it was an examination of the ENTIRE season, not just the last couple of games. And Kanter and Hood have been good in other places but Kanter has almost always been terrible defensively and Hood had some decent seasons in Utah yet never shot over 43% there so 'good' is somewhat relative.

I like some of what both bring but there are downsides as well, certainly with Kanter.

This is actually a much bigger picture look than just two games.

 

[e_blazer]

But it was an examination of the ENTIRE season, not just the last couple of games. And Kanter and Hood have been good in other places but Kanter has almost always been terrible defensively and Hood had some decent seasons in Utah yet never shot over 43% there so 'good' is somewhat relative.

I like some of what both bring but there are downsides as well, certainly with Kanter.

This is actually a much bigger picture look than just two games.

Yes, it was an examination of the entire season, but the team is not playing the same second unit that was on the court in the first part of the season. I'm not 100% sold on Kanter, but I think Hood is an upgrade over Stauskas by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Strenuus]

I have low hopes of the 2nd round. Systemic problems abound with this team that Kanters porous defense and Hoods' erratic shooting are not going to solve.

 

[Hoopguru]

We'll have to just agree to disagree. Being buried in purgatory during a season during Dame's prime is a waste to me.

I don’t think Dame agrees with that!
If winning 50 games a chance to redeem a bad performance in last years 1st round is purgatory then bring it on. See being a competiive baseball and fast pitch softball player for years you learn that what it’s all about is getting another shot to win and prove people wrong.

 

[TBpup]

Yes, it was an examination of the entire season, but the team is not playing the same second unit that was on the court in the first part of the season. I'm not 100% sold on Kanter, but I think Hood is an upgrade over Stauskas by any stretch of the imagination.

Completely agreed Hood is an improvement over Stauskas. But Sauce wasn't even playing when Hood arrived.

I don’t think Dame agrees with that!
If winning 50 games a chance to redeem a bad performance in last years 1st round is purgatory then bring it on. See being a competiive baseball and fast pitch softball player for years you learn that what it’s all about is getting another shot to win and prove people wrong.

A chance? Yes...and if they actually do something with it, great. But recent history, this year's history, etc tells us that seems unlikely at this point. As for the competitive baseball/softball, do multiple state, regional and national titles count for anything? Of course you want another shot.....but how long do we go when those shots keep coming up empty while wasting Dame's prime?

There is nothing to be done about it now, but at some point, when do we deter from the the 'doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result' mantra?

 

[Cugel]

Well jeez, there is a good chance we could end up a 7th or 8th seed. I doubt Sacramento can catch us though, thankfully. And no I don't see anything beyond a first round exit, as much as it pains me to type it.

 

[barfo]

Easy fix: move the franchise to Portland, ME.

barfo

 

[hoopsjock]

As I added to that post above, we just need to keep our expectations in control. We are not a finals team, and are not a contender for the WCF. We may win our first round-- that's the absolute ceiling.

See this is the reason I am so frustrated. Look at our record when we have 25+ assists versus when we don't move the ball. Just the Memphis game alone showed the difference between crisp passing and movement instead of one player constantly attacking on his own.

Playing through Nurk and moving the ball around has PROVEN (not yelling, just emphasizing) against good teams to be how we can take that next step in the playoffs. Instead, when we play a tough team we go back to letting teams trap Dame on the pick and roll. What's the worst thing to do when that happens? Move the pick back further towards half court, which is exactly what we do. How many times did Nurk touch the ball in the high post in the 2nd half last night? The answer is not many. These things are indeed correctable but for four fucking years now it's the same shit.

So no, I completely disagree that this team has the ceiling of maybe a 1st round victory. Other than if the Warriors are playing well, if we played the way that has proven to work I think it's possible to at least give every other team a good series. To me the West is wide open 2-6.

Denver - No playoff experience.

Houston - Harden often disappears in the playoffs, Paul has lost a step, but this is still a scary team. Definitely more beatable than last year though.

OKC - George is definitely improved this year but before this season hasn't been clutch at all. Westbrook can still shoot them out of games.

Utah - They're decent and would be very difficult to beat if they had home court but certainly aren't invincible.

 

[Orion Bailey]

@TBpup This is BS.

Fridays are for feel good stories.

Post this shit on Monday!!! (good shit though.

 

[illmatic99]

See this is the reason I am so frustrated. Look at our record when we have 25+ assists versus when we don't move the ball. Just the Memphis game alone showed the difference between crisp passing and movement instead of one player constantly attacking on his own.

Playing through Nurk and moving the ball around has PROVEN (not yelling, just emphasizing) against good teams to be how we can take that next step in the playoffs. Instead, when we play a tough team we go back to letting teams trap Dame on the pick and roll. What's the worst thing to do when that happens? Move the pick back further towards half court, which is exactly what we do. How many times did Nurk touch the ball in the high post in the 2nd half last night? The answer is not many. These things are indeed correctable but for four fucking years now it's the same shit.

So no, I completely disagree that this team has the ceiling of maybe a 1st round victory. Other than if the Warriors are playing well, if we played the way that has proven to work I think it's possible to at least give every other team a good series. To me the West is wide open 2-6.

Denver - No playoff experience.

Houston - Harden often disappears in the playoffs, Paul has lost a step, but this is still a scary team. Definitely more beatable than last year though.

OKC - George is definitely improved this year but before this season hasn't been clutch at all. Westbrook can still shoot them out of games.

Utah - They're decent and would be very difficult to beat if they had home court but certainly aren't invincible.

I think DEN is head and shoulders ahead of us, inexperience be damned. Their advanced numbers and depth far outweigh any potential advantages we might have. I'd outline it as :

1. GS
2. DEN

3-6. OKC/HOU/POR/UTA


7-9. SAS/LAC/SAC

 

[TBpup]

@TBpup This is BS.

Fridays are for feel good stories.

Post this shit on Monday!!! (good shit though.

I had a piece for Wednesday (Hump Day) but figured it wasn't appropriate.

 

[hoopsjock]

I think DEN is head and shoulders ahead of us, inexperience be damned. Their advanced numbers and depth far outweigh any potential advantages we might have. I'd outline it as :

1. GS
2. DEN

3-6. OKC/HOU/POR/UTA


7-9. SAS/LAC/SAC

You may be right, but I hate giving any team an advantage that hasn't played a single playoff game in 6 years. Every year there are guys that disappear in the playoffs, it's impossible to know if anyone on that team will be like that. Obviously they're better this year than the last couple years but they've lost some regular season games the last two seasons that were basically playoff games they had to win.

 

[illmatic99]

One thing to keep in mind is Dame's minutes. We went all out to try to secure HCA last year and ran Lillard into the ground by the end of the regular season. Then we promptly lost that very advantage in the first quarter of Game 1.

I'd rather have a fully healthy and rested Dame try to go into OKC/HOU/UTA to steal one of the first two games. That will secure HCA as well. I'd be perfectly fine dropping to 6 to rest him while dropping a few games. Just stay out of 8.

 

[TBpup]

You may be right, but I hate giving any team an advantage that hasn't played a single playoff game in 6 years. Every year there are guys that disappear in the playoffs, it's impossible to know if anyone on that team will be like that. Obviously they're better this year than the last couple years but they've lost some regular season games the last two seasons that were basically playoff games they had to win.

You can never tell what a team is going to do. Last year there was a team that hadn't had a single Playoff win in going on 7 seasons. They hadn't won a Playoff series since 2008. Sadly, that team was New Orleans.

 

[hoopsjock]

You can never tell what a team is going to do. Last year there was a team that hadn't had a single Playoff win in going on 7 seasons. They hadn't won a Playoff series since 2008. Sadly, that team was New Orleans.

Yup, that was what I was trying to say that it's hard to tell one way or another for a team with no experience. Denver could be just as good as in the regular season or Jokic could go all Cliff Robinson/Lamarcus Aldridge (Before Game 1 and 2 of the Houston series) and completely pucker up when the pressure is on.

 

[KingSpeed]

The Blazers are on pace to better last years record and get to 50 wins....but the question that keeps bothering me is, "Will it make a difference?"

They have DESTROYED the East to the tune of a 19-5 record, but in their own conference, they are a current Western Conference Playoff seed worst 20-21. Even the #8 Clippers are better at 24-20.

So while they will make the Playoffs and still have a shot at #3, will it matter come Playoff time when whomever they play, may very well have a better record than them versus the very Playoff teams they are now matched up against.

Below is a record against each Playoff team in the West. Since it has been pointed out that the Blazers play a number of teams who are missing a player, I wanted to see if that made a difference. A note is made if a starter was missing for either team. In only one case (against the Nuggets) were the Blazers missing a starter.

Record Vs - Warriors (2-2)
L on road, (w/o Curry and Cousins)
W on road (Cousins out)
L at home (Cousins out)
W at home (Cousins out)
Blazers have yet to play a full Warriors roster. Cousins hasn't been great but he has size and Nurkic has ABUSED Looney.

Vs - Nuggets (0-2...so far)
L at home,
L on road (Harkless out)

Vs - Thunder (0-4)
L at Home
L on road
L on road (George out)
L at home

Vs - Rockets (2-1)
W on road, (Harden out)
L on road
W at home (Paul out)

Vs - Jazz (2-2)
L at home
L on road
W on road
W at home

Vs - Spurs (2-1)
W at home
L on road
W at home

Vs - Clippers (1-1)
L on road
W on road

Remaining WC Playoff games:
@ Clippers
@ Spurs
@Denver
Denver

Home: 5-5
Road: 4-8

So far that is a 9-13 against the very teams they have to play come post season time. Of those 9 wins, the opponent was missing a starter in 4 of them. In the losses, the Blazers were missing a starter in 1 game. So healthy roster to healthy roster, the Blazers are 5-12 against Western Conference Playoff teams this year. Why might that number seem a bit familiar? It is very similar to something posted a week or so ago regarding the Blazers playoff record under Stotts since Dame/CJ became the starting backcourt....5-14.

This isn't a recent reaction, it is a season(s) long issue that cast the light of reality on what we might expect in the Playoff. If the Blazers can get HCA, that should help, but we saw that last year it didn't help at all and so far this season, the Blazers are only 5-5 against WC Playoff teams at home. That does not bode well for breaking out of their ongoing Playoff funk.

I tried to find multiple different ways of looking at this to provide more confidence but without putting on Rose-colored glasses, nothing really stood out. Since adding Hood/Kanter, they have only played on WCP team and that was last night against the Thunder. That was a close, hard-fought, winnable game and I can't put anything on the refs as the Blazer shot nearly 50 FT's.

As much as I can 'hope', I don't see a lot this year that has changed other than the Blazers really torched the East.....but that isn't going to do them much good in the tough Western Conference Playoffs.

Are we stuck with Playoff misery again?

Lots of reason to believe, TBPup. Read your own post. Only 1 playoff team has won the season series against us. We’ve gotten two wins over GS, Houston, Utah, and SA. We’ve won pressure filled games in Houston, at Golden State, and in Utah. And our conference record will shoot up as we still have six games left against sub .500 West teams. Losing to OKC 4 times sucks but that’s just one team who we may not even face in playoffs and even if we do, the games were close. I doubt OKC can beat us 8 times. Truly. Also, we’ve shown we can win tight playoff type games as we won three straight overtime games at one point including AT Golden State, the #1 seed in the West. How many teams have beaten GS 4 times over the last two seasons? I wonder. This gives our team much confidence when we face them in second round or WCF.

 

[KingSpeed]

One thing to keep in mind is Dame's minutes. We went all out to try to secure HCA last year and ran Lillard into the ground by the end of the regular season. Then we promptly lost that very advantage in the first quarter of Game 1.

I'd rather have a fully healthy and rested Dame try to go into OKC/HOU/UTA to steal one of the first two games. That will secure HCA as well. I'd be perfectly fine dropping to 6 to rest him while dropping a few games. Just stay out of 8.

Only one bottom 4 seed has won a championship all time and that team was the defending champs. Do you really want to start every series on the road? I don’t.

 

[KingSpeed]

That's a harsh way to look at enjoying a basketball season in my view....Jake Layman alone is worth this season's progress....sure we want playoff success..what I couldn't do is project failure this early or see development as a waste....long view. People are going to be impatient with Hood and Kanter until they are integrated into the system. It will take some time to get them sharp for the post season and I'm stoked about our playoff prospects ...with absolutely no reason not to be..I'm sick of the Pelicans sweep narrative myself...moved on long ago...Sure we can win in the playoffs and I'm thinking we will win this post season...what I'd hate to see us ever doing would be more like tanking for the draft

AMEN. I have HIGHLY ENJOYED this season and that can’t be erased by a bad playoffs. We got to see Dame hit 10 threes in a game, Layman score 20 in a quarter (the loudest the arena was all year), Hood score 21 in a quarter on the road, a 5-2 road trip, a complete home rout of the Warriors (a HIGHLY entertaining game) and a tight OT win over GS with Dame hitting a game winning three. Also Nurk and CJ getting triple doubles, and Nurk getting the first ever 20/20 5x5. The whole thing has been fun which is what it’s all about. I believe we can win the championship this year but even if we lose in the first round, it won’t erase all the fun I’ve had, that’s for sure.

 

[KingSpeed]

That is the thing, they haven't really had 'synergy' all season against teams they would play in the Playoffs.

But we have. We beat GS, SA, Houston, and Utah twice. It does not matter if those teams didn’t have their full roster (Does anyone care that we were without Nurk in 2017 when bashing Stotts’ playoff record?) The teams aren’t set at 100% health to start playoffs. Every title Golden State has won in the last four years was against teams with injuries to Conley/Kyrie/Kevin (2015), Kawhi (2017), and CP3 (2018).

 

[borim69]

As I said in the Thunder game thread, last night's game really was the playoff litmus test for the team. Every top tier team in the West has at least two Superstars and a Star-level 3rd option that you have to deal with. OKC has Westbrook and George, and Steven Adams as their 3rd. The Blazers failed the test last night.

In a lot of ways, I am MOST disheartened by Lillard's performance. 51/5/9 and a loss. I don't care what he says, he is not going to stand for this for very long. I don't care how tight he is with his boys, how much loyalty he feels towards Portland and the Blazers... the sound of a ticking clock on his career is getting louder and one day ha's gonna wake up and realize that he's incomplete without that ring, and that he's not going to win it in Portland... not with the surrounding cast he has. CJ with zero assists? That should never happen. Aminu and Harkless are bench guys masquing as starters. Hard workers, to be sure and to give them credit, but when you are trying to get out of the first round in this conference? Not enough.

I don't know how the team re-invents itself after this loss. CJ can't suddenly become more than he is, which needs to be that 2nd Superstar to compliment Dame. Nurk isn't there yet, either, but he seems to have more potential to drive himself higher. I think we are at CJ's ceiling. Stotts, for all the hate he gets in here is a decent coach, but he's polished the turd to about it's shiniest right now.

One of the toughest teams to play in the west after a grueling 7 game road trip with 1 day of rest. I know that is not an excuse BUT I think in this case it is a factor.
I do not think we will make it pass the 1st round ( I hope I am wrong in this) but this season we have 3 teams that got our number Denver, Utah, and OKC. GSW is GSW they become a different team in the playoffs it is like they play the whole season in 4th gear and when the playoffs hit they grab 5th. Denver I believe is the litmus test. We need both wins. If we don't win both of those games you can probably count us as a 1st round exit since one of those will be our opponent in the first round.

 

[borim69]

I do not think this season is a loss. We have developed players and we evaluated others to include the coach. I am happy that we are not the Kings, Sixers, or Wizards. The Pelicans have got to be ecstatic that their All-Star gave them the heads up and they will come out of this season winning the Lottery. Any win in the post season will mark us as a better team than last year.

 

[wizenheimer]

One of the toughest teams to play in the west after a grueling 7 game road trip with 1 day of rest. I know that is not an excuse BUT I think in this case it is a factor..

actually, it does look like an excuse

prior to the OKC game, the Blazers played 7 games in 15 days with a day of rest between each game; OKC had played 7 games in 14 days, and they had two sets of back-to-back games, plus a 3-games-in-4-nights grind....just before playing Portland. And last night they just completed their 3rd back-to-back set since the all-star game, and their second 3-games-in-4-nights grind. 9 Games instead of 8, three back-to-backs, and a pair of 3-games-in-4-nights....all in one less day than Portland's schedule

Any win in the post season will mark us as a better team than last year.

c'mon man....really?

say Portland gets HCA and then gets eliminated 4-1 in the first round. How is that "better then last year" rather than confirmation of two depressing things: 1) Portland is on a suck-ass treadmill, and 2) they just wasted another year of Dame's prime...?

 

[CupWizier]

Yup, that was what I was trying to say that it's hard to tell one way or another for a team with no experience. Denver could be just as good as in the regular season or Jokic could go all Cliff Robinson/Lamarcus Aldridge (Before Game 1 and 2 of the Houston series) and completely pucker up when the pressure is on.

It's even hard to tell with experienced teams going into the playoffs as it's a new season.

 

[CupWizier]

actually, it does look like an excuse

prior to the OKC game, the Blazers played 7 games in 15 days with a day of rest between each game; OKC had played 7 games in 14 days, and they had two sets of back-to-back games, plus a 3-games-in-4-nights grind....just before playing Portland. And last night they just completed their 3rd back-to-back set since the all-star game, and their second 3-games-in-4-nights grind. 9 Games instead of 8, three back-to-backs, and a pair of 3-games-in-4-nights....all in one less day than Portland's schedule



c'mon man....really?

say Portland gets HCA and then gets eliminated 4-1 in the first round. How is that "better then last year" rather than confirmation of two depressing things: 1) Portland is on a suck-ass treadmill, and 2) they just wasted another year of Dame's prime...?

1-4 isn't better than 0-4? Is this some sort of new math?

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I do not think this season is a loss. We have developed players and we evaluated others to include the coach. I am happy that we are not the Kings, Sixers, or Wizards. The Pelicans have got to be ecstatic that their All-Star gave them the heads up and they will come out of this season winning the Lottery. Any win in the post season will mark us as a better team than last year.

I wouldn't mind being the Sixers or Kings.