Optimistic: Nolan Smith

[jaspitzer]

I for one am optimistic about Nolan Smith becoming a very good backup Point Guard in the NBA. I even think he can one day be a Darren Collison type of player. As long as he works hard, I think he'll be a success

[video=youtube;2q3Rk0UESRg]

(Don't get on and slaughter me about highlight videos, I realize even Adam Morrison can look decent in certain lights. Just give it a chance)

 

[jlprk]

Better handle than I thought. Nice dribbler.

Coming from the best coaching in college is a head start in basketball IQ of at least 2 years.

 

[Natebishop3]

Well, he's on the team, so at this point all we can do is hope for the best.

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

If the lockout goes too long, Nolan may become our starting PG next year. Scary, uncertain off season for us!!!!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Ridiculously overhyped impossibly high omg homer ceiling: Pass-first Roy. Those herky-jerky dribbling moves were straight out of Brandon's playbook, but they mostly ended in an assist. If he's smart enough and creative enough to keep that up in the pros? Even half that good is good enough to full-on backup PG or even emergency starter PG.

*Yes, I know... it's a highlight video, and even Ha Seung Jin has one.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

*Yes, I know... it's a highlight video, and even Ha Seung Jin has one.

The difference is that even in Ha's highlight video, it was still apparent that he was a big stiff.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I hope he works out. I really mean that.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

If the lockout goes too long, Nolan may become our starting PG next year. Scary, uncertain off season for us!!!!

Whyfor? Is there something with Felton's contract?

 

[B-Roy]

Decently quick, lacks explosion, takes a lot of time to get by his defender.

I'm hoping for Darren Collison but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Blazinaway]

Decently quick, lacks explosion, takes a lot of time to get by his defender.

I'm hoping for Darren Collison but I'm not holding my breath.

Why are you being suck an arse with the "F" Felton thing?

 

[Public Defender]

I just wonder why everyone had projected Nolan Smith to be picked so late? The guy was one of the best players for two years at Duke, when the team won the national championship and advanced far in the tournament as a #1 seed.

I mean he's really quite good and polished. Do teams not trust players who can play both backcourt positions? Is "upside" so important that you're going to pass on a player who's shown you most of what he's capable of - even if it includes outstanding play in the toughest conference in college basketball?

I expect Smith to be very good backup, who could well be a starter. I'm thinking a smarter and quicker Jarrett Jack.

 

[Minstrel]

Is "upside" so important that you're going to pass on a player who's shown you most of what he's capable of

It is important unless you think what he's capable of right now is enough to be a good NBA player. I don't think very many people feel that way, and thus the lack of upside (to improve into a good NBA player) is concerning.

 

[B-Roy]

Why are you being suck an arse with the "F" Felton thing?

I don't know. Why am I suck an arse?

 

[Pinwheel1]

In the old days.......60's 70's, 80's and part the 90's, most players stayed in college 3-4 years. And they still improved their game after being in the league a few years. The difference between year 1 and 2 were significant.

Now players who come out of college at 22-23 aren't expected to get much better. I understand how a 18-19 would have more room to improve, but I still think guys who play 4 years in college can to. If they work hard enough.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

In the old days.......60's 70's, 80's and part the 90's, most players stayed in college 3-4 years. And they still improved their game after being in the league a few years. The difference between year 1 and 2 were significant.

Now players who come out of college at 22-23 aren't expected to get much better. I understand how a 18-19 would have more room to improve, but I still think guys who play 4 years in college can to. If they work hard enough.

Remember when everyone though Roy had hit his ceiling at WSU? And that, for as well as he'd done his rookie year (ROY for ROY!), that he'd hit his ceiling *then* as well? But he improved again, even more than his improvement from college to rookie.

Sure, his knees gave out under, and we're here now, but! I'm going to go out on a thin, high-placed limb and say that Nolan will be unexpectedly good, so much so that in three seasons' time, he will be our starter. He was a good player in a disciplined system, moving to a similarly disciplined system in Portland. Nate has squeezed the best from mid-level and low-level players for years, and while that's not enough to get out out of the first round, it might just mean that a player like Nolan will flourish in the same way Wesley Matthews and Brandon Roy did: unexpectedly, through smart play and a good opportunity.

 

[B-Roy]

Nate has squeezed the best from mid-level and low-level players for years, and while that's not enough to get out out of the first round, it might just mean that a player like Nolan will flourish in the same way Wesley Matthews and Brandon Roy did: unexpectedly, through smart play and a good opportunity.

Nolan Smith is a turnover machine, he averaged 3.3 turnovers in college. Nate HATES turnovers. Bayless came in averaging 4 turnovers in college, and Johnson came in averaging 3.4 turnovers in college. Both reportedly had issues with Nate. The same thing happened to Sergio, a high turnover player. Jack, despite being a better overall player, was benched in favor of Blake partly because of turnovers. None of those guys (except Johnson, who may or may not be) are still on the team, yet Nate is still coaching. I have a good feeling Nate is going to outright bench Smith in the middle of the season, or he'll probably be used very sparingly.

 

[Minstrel]

Remember when everyone though Roy had hit his ceiling at WSU? And that, for as well as he'd done his rookie year (ROY for ROY!), that he'd hit his ceiling *then* as well? But he improved again, even more than his improvement from college to rookie.

I was definitely one who underestimated Roy's upside, but one factor in that was a quote he gave (a couple of years into his NBA career) about how he had been a high-flyer in high school but had purposely avoided that, suppressed his athleticism, in college in order to get more skilled, rather than relying on athleticism. One part of fans on this site (myself included) viewing him as lower upside was that he didn't seem to have a ton of athleticism to his game. He seemed all polish. As it turned out, he was both polished and extremely athletic. So it was a bit deceptive to evaluate him (as a fan, who hadn't watched him in high school).

Might Nolan Smith also be harboring a secret upside? Possible, but I think a situation like Roy's (where he purposely suppressed a key strength) is pretty rare.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Remember when everyone though Roy had hit his ceiling at WSU? And that, for as well as he'd done his rookie year (ROY for ROY!), that he'd hit his ceiling *then* as well? But he improved again, even more than his improvement from college to rookie.

Sure, his knees gave out under, and we're here now, but! I'm going to go out on a thin, high-placed limb and say that Nolan will be unexpectedly good, so much so that in three seasons' time, he will be our starter. He was a good player in a disciplined system, moving to a similarly disciplined system in Portland. Nate has squeezed the best from mid-level and low-level players for years, and while that's not enough to get out out of the first round, it might just mean that a player like Nolan will flourish in the same way Wesley Matthews and Brandon Roy did: unexpectedly, through smart play and a good opportunity.

On the flip side, people mocked me for saying Rudy had pretty well reached his ceiling as a rookie.

Smith was only the starting PG for his college team because somebody else got hurt. If Nate couldn't turn Bayless into an NBA PG, I don't understand why people expect him to do it with Smith and/or Williams.

 

[MickZagger]

I hope he works out. I really mean that.

As we all should. Were all Blazer fans, right?

 

[Minstrel]

As we all should. Were all Blazer fans, right?

Absolutely. I'm skeptical about the Smith pick, but I'd be thrilled if (and I know no one is projecting this) he became an All-Star point guard.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Absolutely. I'm skeptical about the Smith pick, but I'd be thrilled if (and I know no one is projecting this) he became an All-Star point guard.

Who wouldn't? Would you be thrilled if he ends up being a solid starter in four years?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Nolan Smith is a turnover machine, he averaged 3.3 turnovers in college. Nate HATES turnovers. Bayless came in averaging 4 turnovers in college, and Johnson came in averaging 3.4 turnovers in college. Both reportedly had issues with Nate. The same thing happened to Sergio, a high turnover player. Jack, despite being a better overall player, was benched in favor of Blake partly because of turnovers. None of those guys (except Johnson, who may or may not be) are still on the team, yet Nate is still coaching. I have a good feeling Nate is going to outright bench Smith in the middle of the season, or he'll probably be used very sparingly.

He averaged 3.3 his senior year, but only 1.8 his junior year (with more minutes played than his senior year). There's no reason to think 3.3 is all we're going to get from him. He gets to the line (1st in the ACC for FTA), can shoot the 3 at a decent clip. His junior year was all-round superior to his senior year, except in getting to the line... we probably would have taken him last year instead of Babbitt.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

If you go by highlights he looks like (pre-inury) Alvin Williams.

 

[Minstrel]

Who wouldn't? Would you be thrilled if he ends up being a solid starter in four years?

I'd be pleased. "Thrilled" might be a bit much for adding a solid starter, but I'd certainly view it as a very nice value for the pick.

 

[Public Defender]

I guess I wonder about the whole "upside" vs. "demonstrable ability" debate when it comes to picking players late in the 1st round.

I'd argue if one of the "high upside" players slipped to late in the 1st round, it's because the chances of that upside being realized are in serious doubt. The "demonstrable ability" guys are often solid rotation guys, but aren't projected to be superstars. I don't think a team can expect to land a superstar late in the 1st, and they should be looking for guys who can fill a niche (shooter off the bench, rebounder, backup combo guard).

I'd rather take the player who's almost guaranteed to be at least "pretty good" (which I think is true of Nolan Smith) over the player who might turn out "outstanding" but is at least as likely to be a total bust.

I like the pick, and expect that Smith will be a decent backup combo guard in the NBA. He'll need to improve, but four-year players at Duke tend to be sharp and hard-working (though I don't particularly like Duke, frankly).

Anyway, I too am optimistic he'll put the necessary work in, and turn into at least a decent backup guard.

 

[B-Roy]

He averaged 3.3 his senior year, but only 1.8 his junior year (with more minutes played than his senior year). There's no reason to think 3.3 is all we're going to get from him. He gets to the line (1st in the ACC for FTA), can shoot the 3 at a decent clip. His junior year was all-round superior to his senior year, except in getting to the line... we probably would have taken him last year instead of Babbitt.

True, but he was playing shooting guard then. Less responsibility with the ball usually means less turnovers.

Regardless his A/T ratio was pretty much the same as in his senior year. I'm not sure he's going to be a playmaker at the next level. Spark off the bench possibly, but pure point? Probably not.

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

Whyfor? Is there something with Felton's contract?

He will be a UFA in July 2012.

 

[PapaG]

True, but he was playing shooting guard then. Less responsibility with the ball usually means less turnovers.
Regardless his A/T ratio was pretty much the same as in his senior year. I'm not sure he's going to be a playmaker at the next level. Spark off the bench possibly, but pure point? Probably not.

Or, being thrust into the PG spot early in your senior season while playing for an elite team may not be an easy transistion.

The guy took over at PG for Duke after playing off the ball, won ACC PoY, and did it playing a new position.

For that, he's supposedly a terrible draft pick.

I agree with BlazerCaravan, and I also made a mini-Roy comparison, at least in terms of style of play. Plus, Smith apparently had more dunks in college than Brandon, which is a surprise.

 

[PapaG]

He will be a UFA in July 2012.

The same was going to be true with Miller too, though.

 

[B-Roy]

Or, being thrust into the PG spot early in your senior season while playing for an elite team may not be an easy transistion.

Right, he's not really a point guard, and for the first year at least, it's going to be frustrating for Nate who's going to try to play him as one. (imo)

Plus, Smith apparently had more dunks in college than Brandon, which is a surprise.

Not really, Brandon hid his athleticism to become more skilled.