Optimistic: Nolan Smith

[Rastapopoulos]

If you go by highlights he looks like (pre-inury) Alvin Williams.

Be still my heart!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Remember how mocked the Wesley Matthews signing was?

Of course, if we had REALLY good COLLEGE scouts, we would've drafted him in the first place...

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Not really, Brandon hid his athleticism to become more skilled.

I'm sorry but that's just insane. "Sorry coach, not going to jump, I'm hiding my athleticism to become more skilled. Of course, NBA teams won't be put off thinking I'm an average athlete, so this'll work out great."

 

[barfo]

Not really, Brandon hid his athleticism to become more skilled.

Maybe he's doing that again now. Maybe his knees are fine, he just figures that he should learn to play without them.

By the time he's in his late 30's, he won't be using any part of his body to play, he'll just sit on the bench and think the ball into the hoop.

barfo

 

[handiman]

In the old days.......60's 70's, 80's and part the 90's, most players stayed in college 3-4 years. And they still improved their game after being in the league a few years. The difference between year 1 and 2 were significant.

Now players who come out of college at 22-23 aren't expected to get much better. I understand how a 18-19 would have more room to improve, but I still think guys who play 4 years in college can to. If they work hard enough.

Well, one difference is the players that are good enough to leave early do so now, while the ones that stay in three or four years are typically second rate. Or at least are perceived to be.

 

[handiman]

By the time he's in his late 30's, he won't be using any part of his body to play, he'll just sit on the bench and think the ball into the hoop.

And people think Dirk is hard to guard!

 

[PapaG]

Well, one difference is the players that are good enough to leave early do so now, while the ones that stay in three or four years are typically second rate. Or at least are perceived to be.

Other than the top 3 or 4 early entry players, at best, the rest would be better served to stay in college. The NBA draft is now mostly about potential. At the top of the draft, that's a good gamble. After the first 7-8 picks, it really rarely pans out, IMO. I think Bismack Biyombo will be a wasted pick, and that's if he's really 18. If he's older, then he'll be a bust.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Smith was only the starting PG for his college team because somebody else got hurt. If Nate couldn't turn Bayless into an NBA PG, I don't understand why people expect him to do it with Smith and/or Williams.

I agree that there is no way in Hell that Williams is a PG. Do people think that? But I am not sure what your point is about Smith. Who cares how he got the job, if he can play the position. Mike K thought he could. Apparently so does Chad. Personally i have no idea.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

The key here is that he's projected to be our #2 PG- not the savior of the franchise. We got him as neither Mills nor Johnson appear to be able to handle the duties of an NBA PG and Roy is a train wreck at that position.

He got 4 years of excellent coaching at Duke, so his fundamentals are very sound. He has played in the highest of pressure situations at Duke and handled them well.

I think it's a good pick at #21.

 

[jlprk]

I was definitely one who underestimated Roy's upside, but one factor in that was a quote he gave (a couple of years into his NBA career) about how he had been a high-flyer in high school but had purposely avoided that, suppressed his athleticism, in college in order to get more skilled, rather than relying on athleticism.

No one remembers that quote because no one believed it at the time. You're a sucker for a good Oregonian story.

Nobody's able to hide their talent for years, if they play in real games. A more likely theory is that Roy flourishes only in McMillan-type systems. He played at UW like he would for most NBA coaches.

 

[jlprk]

SI Rank: 6.8
significantly lower than those picked around him

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/2011/draft/tracker/draft_analysis/index.html

 

[PapaG]

Absolutely. I'm skeptical about the Smith pick, but I'd be thrilled if (and I know no one is projecting this) he became an All-Star point guard.

Was there a player available at #21 that you wouldn't be skeptical about drafting?

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Oh no! Not the SI rank! Smith is doomed to have a terrible career - SI numerical rating system says so!

 

[Minstrel]

Was there a player available at #21 that you wouldn't be skeptical about drafting?

I wouldn't have viewed anyone selected there (or any other pick) as a guarantee, but I'd have been significantly more comfortable with Faried (since I viewed him as both BPA and a major need) or a higher upside risk pick like Nikola Mirotic.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Just for shits and giggles, let's compare measurements for Brandon Knight and Nolan Smith (and throw in Jarrett Jack and Deron Williams):

Name	Height	w/shoes	Wgt	Wingspan	Reach		Fat	No Step	Max Vert	Bench 	Agility	3/4 Court Sprint	
Smith	6' 1.5"	6' 3.5"	188	6' 5.5"		8' 3"		5.6	28.5	34.0		9	11.05	3.17	
Knight	6' 1.5"	6' 3.25	177	6' 6.75"	8' 2.5"		4.2	29.0	37.5		10	10.74	3.07
Jack	6' 2.5"	6' 3.5"	198	6' 7.5"		8' 4"		NA	26.0	28.5		5	10.87	3.24
Deron	6' 1.75	6' 2.75	202	6' 6.25"	8' 2"		NA	30.0	35.0		15	10.83	3.25

(Shoes were thinner when Jack and Deron were in college.)
Now let's compare some stats for their last years in college:

Name	GP	Min	Pts	FG	FGA	FG%	2Pt	2PtA	2P%	3Pt	3PtA	3P%	FTM	FTA	FT%	Off	Def	TOT	Asts	Stls	Blks	TOs	PFs
Smith	37	34.0	20.6	7.0	15.4	45.8	5.5	10.9	50.1	1.5	4.4	35.0	5.1	6.2	81.3	1.2	3.3	4.5	5.1	1.2	0.1	3.2	1.9
Knight	38	35.9	17.3	5.7	13.5	42.3	3.4	7.4	46.1	2.3	6.1	37.7	3.6	4.5	79.5	0.7	3.4	4.0	4.2	0.7	0.2	3.2	2.2
Jack	32	34.1	15.5	5.1	10.0	51.4	3.7	6.7	54.9	1.4	3.3	44.2	3.8	4.4	86.6	0.3	4.6	4.8	4.5	1.8	0.1	3.4	1.7
Deron	39	33.7	14.9	5.4	12.5	43.3	3.3	6.8	49.1	2.1	5.7	36.4	2.0	2.9	67.7	0.4	3.9	4.3	8.0	1.2	0.2	3.3	2.4

What does this prove? Nothing! It was just for shits and giggles. (And of course Brandon Knight was just a freshman.)
BUT: it is interesting that Smith shot the most free throws.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If he has a Jarret Jack like career I'll assume he reached his potential.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If he has a Jarret Jack like career I'll assume he reached his potential.

If potential is measured by comparing last-year-in-college-stats (remembering that Jack was probably about the same age as Smith), Smith should be a better scorer, draw more fouls and have a better assist to turnover ratio. But be a worse three point shooter.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

While we're being optimistic, this guy looks a lot like Smith did in college:

[video=youtube;eOFjRnPIdi8]

 

[jlprk]

All these posts are arguing whether Smith will be a good guard. But we have guards.

What about the criticism that we were hurting in every game last season because we needed rebounders, not guards, and the leading rebounder in NCAA history was grabbed with the very next pick?

As I said all season, Juwan Howard would have greatly helped us. So now here's our lucky draft opportunity, and we turn it down.

 

[Blaze01]

at this point, all Blazers fans should hope that he is better than advertised....

I don't think POR was hurting in rebounding last year as much as they were in scoring.....particularly bench scoring...I mean there were times watching this team flail at trying to score was downright painful to watch....

 

[jlprk]

I don't think POR was hurting in rebounding last year as much as they were in scoring.....particularly bench scoring...I mean there were times watching this team flail at trying to score was downright painful to watch....

Nolan Smith is not advertised as an above-average shooter. But we could have had the top NCAA rebounder in history.

 

[barfo]

Nolan Smith is not advertised as an above-average shooter.

Well, let's start advertising then. I believe that Shooter is in advertising, and, given his name, he's uniquely qualified for this job.

barfo

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Browsing some of the larger Duke basketball forums apparently Coach K said he's talked to teams that were serious about taking him in the early teens.

 

[jlprk]

Browsing some of the larger Duke basketball forums apparently Coach K said he's talked to teams that were serious about taking him in the early teens.

My granny used to say, "Sonny, talk is cheap and action counts but it's all we can afford."

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What about the criticism that we were hurting in every game last season because we needed rebounders, not guards, and the leading rebounder in NCAA history was grabbed with the very next pick?
As I said all season, Juwan Howard would have greatly helped us. So now here's our lucky draft opportunity, and we turn it down.

Toronto were outrebounded a lot last season. And yet, on their roster they had Reggie Evans, who has a better rebound/48 rate than Kevin Love. (And also Joey Dorsey who is close.) Why didn't they play them? I'm guessing because they can't do anything else. Pops Mensa-Bonsu is probably a good comparison for Faried, and he can't hold an NBA job.

 

[Ed O]

Toronto were outrebounded a lot last season. And yet, on their roster they had Reggie Evans, who has a better rebound/48 rate than Kevin Love. (And also Joey Dorsey who is close.) Why didn't they play them? I'm guessing because they can't do anything else. Pops Mensa-Bonsu is probably a good comparison for Faried, and he can't hold an NBA job.

Or maybe because the coach was bad?

I'm not sure which it is, but I DO know that the coach got shit-canned.

Ed O.

 

[jlprk]

I watched Evans his first 3 years, when his coach was Nate McMillan. A great rebounder, he tried to become a good defender, thug variety since he lacked quickness. He just fouled a lot.

A greater rebounder, Faried won the Defensive Player of the Year. So he has two great abilities, not one like the undrafted Evans.

 

[Blaze01]

What point is it talking about Faried now? POR isn't getting him, I agree with you I think they should have got him and then used the #26 to get Smith....

but they did not, at this point Smith is on the team, I don't have much hope for him, but at this point I hope he proves everyone wrong and becomes one of the better PG from this draft and (hopefully) a starting level PG...

wishful thinking? yeah, definitely...but not much else to do at this point...

After the last 2 drafts, I really have to question Chad Buchanan's talent evaluation....If none of them step forward this year, I can't believe Allen or his cronies wouldn't hold him accountable and look for someone else to evaluate talent come a potentially rich 2012 draft class....

 

[Targus]

He reminds me of Ben Uzoh - New Jersey Nets. Athletic with nice size, combo guard, not outstanding in any one area but no questions about work ethic.

It's a great video, but I'm having trouble getting excited about him.

 

[PapaG]

If the Blazers were going to pick a 4-year player, I'd rather have them draft the ACC Player of the Year over a 4-year guy from the Ohio Valley Conference.

The 21st pick isn't worth getting too upset about, though, unless you're just looking for a reason to be upset.