Oregon Ducks 2026

[JfizzleBlazer]

Do stars matter? Indiana football destroys 'talent metric' with championship​

Do stars matter? Indiana football destroys 'talent metric' with championship

Do stars matter? Here's a look at how Indiana's roster stacks up on paper compared to other recent CFP national champions:

www.usatoday.com

"The Hoosiers ranked 72nd in college football in talent metric this season, which isn't even in the top half of the sport"

looks like Oregon was ranked #5 in that same talent metric.

 

[BBert]

Where did they find this guy? Joliet?

 

[wizenheimer]

Do stars matter? Indiana football destroys 'talent metric' with championship​

Do stars matter? Indiana football destroys 'talent metric' with championship

Do stars matter? Here's a look at how Indiana's roster stacks up on paper compared to other recent CFP national champions:

www.usatoday.com

"The Hoosiers ranked 72nd in college football in talent metric this season, which isn't even in the top half of the sport"

looks like Oregon was ranked #5 in that same talent metric.

apples to oranges. Indiana has had the advantage of pruning out the unproductive and overrated players coming out of high school. The average age of their roster was over 23 years old and the average number of seasons of their starters was 4.1

Oregon had a lot of 18 and 19 year old 4-star recruits than didn't see the field this season, but they are counted in that dipshit survey and skewing the comparison

imagine if Oregon had been playing with a bunch of their 3-star, or less, recruits this season when they had been in their 4th or 5th year of experience:

some of the 3-star recruits Oregon has had like:

Deforest Buckner DL
Alex Balducci DL
Dwayne Stanford WR
Marcus Mariota QB
Cameron Hunt OL
Elijah George OL
Johnny Mundt TE
Joe Walker LB
Jake Pisarcik OL (2-star)
Charles Nelson Ath
Jalen Jelks Edge
Shane Lemeiux OL
Calvin Thockmorton OL
Ugo Amadi DB
Fotu Leato
Jacob Breeland TE/WR
Jake Hanson OL
Gus Cumberlander Edge
Tyrell Crosby OL
Brady Breeze DB
Justin Herbert QB
Troy Dye LB
CJ Verdell RB
Popo Aumavae OL
Alex Forsythe OL
Jordon Scott DT
Verone McKinley III DB
Travis Dye RB
Keyon Ware-Hudson DT
Jamal Hill S
Brandon Dorlus DL
Trikweze Bridges DB
Juwan Johnson TE/WR
Bradyn Swinson Edge
Jonathon Denis OL
Bennett Williams S
TJ Bass OL
Marcus Harper OL
Casey Rogers DL transfer
Jerry Mixon LB
Nikko Reed DB transfer
Nishad Strother OL transfer
Tysheem Johnson DB transfer
Evan Williams DB transfer
Tez Johnson WR transfer
Khyree Jackson DB transfer
Peyton Woodyard DB transfer
Kobe Savage DB transfer

that isn't a conclusive list....more just a quick one and I count 28 of those 3 star players who have made it to the NFL

but again, Indiana has had the advantage of selecting and signing established players and pruning the unproductive ones

something else too: the narrative that Indiana has "destroyed the talent metric" is horseshit. It is the one exception over the last 30 years of national champions. And there are lots of reasons to see what Indiana did as a perfect storm of unrepeatable circumstances

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

apples to oranges. Indiana has had the advantage of pruning out the unproductive and overrated players coming out of high school. The average age of their roster was over 23 years old and the average number of seasons of their starters was 4.1

Oregon had a lot of 18 and 19 year old 4-star recruits than didn't see the field this season, but they are counted in that dipshit survey and skewing the comparison

imagine if Oregon had been playing with a bunch of their 3-star, or less, recruits this season when they had been in their 4th or 5th year of experience:

some of the 3-star recruits Oregon has had like:

Deforest Buckner DL
Alex Balducci DL
Dwayne Stanford WR
Marcus Mariota QB
Cameron Hunt OL
Elijah George OL
Johnny Mundt TE
Joe Walker LB
Jake Pisarcik OL (2-star)
Charles Nelson Ath
Jalen Jelks Edge
Shane Lemeiux OL
Calvin Thockmorton OL
Ugo Amadi DB
Fotu Leato
Jacob Breeland TE/WR
Jake Hanson OL
Gus Cumberlander Edge
Tyrell Crosby OL
Brady Breeze DB
Justin Herbert QB
Troy Dye LB
CJ Verdell RB
Popo Aumavae OL
Alex Forsythe OL
Jordon Scott DT
Verone McKinley III DB
Travis Dye RB
Keyon Ware-Hudson DT
Jamal Hill S
Brandon Dorlus DL
Trikweze Bridges DB
Juwan Johnson TE/WR
Bradyn Swinson Edge
Jonathon Denis OL
Bennett Williams S
TJ Bass OL
Marcus Harper OL
Casey Rogers DL transfer
Jerry Mixon LB
Nikko Reed DB transfer
Nishad Strother OL transfer
Tysheem Johnson DB transfer
Evan Williams DB transfer
Tez Johnson WR transfer
Khyree Jackson DB transfer
Peyton Woodyard DB transfer
Kobe Savage DB transfer

that isn't a conclusive list....more just a quick one and I count 28 of those 3 star players who have made it to the NFL

but again, Indiana has had the advantage of selecting and signing established players and pruning the unproductive ones

something else too: the narrative that Indiana has "destroyed the talent metric" is horseshit. It is the one exception over the last 30 years of national champions. And there are lots of reasons to see what Indiana did as a perfect storm of unrepeatable circumstances

Is it really an advantage if any school could have done the same? Doesn't seem unfair. It isn't like they colluded or anything. Its actually a great story, I think. A bunch of unheralded guys that won a title and grew into players. I mean Miami wouldn't even consider Mendoza.

I saw a list on OLive today that had multiple media outlets with the Ducks in the top 5 for next year. Including a few that had them at #1. Maybe their style of recruiting younger guys will work out for them next year.

 

[STOMP]

Prior to this just completed season, many Duck prognosticators were pointing to this next season (26-27) as the better shot at winning it all. Next season will be Lanning's 5th as HC, so guys from his first classes will be the upperclassmen. Of particular importance, Dante will have a full year of starts under his belt and another offseason to focus on shoring up his shortcomings. Experience is important at every position, but especially at QB where decision making processing speed is so often the difference between successful plays and busts. We saw Bo Nix really take off his 2nd year starting followed by Gabriel who made the most starts of anyone in the history of college football. Will experience help Dante take his play to another level?

Certainly there are some other question marks, like the OLine and LBs, but every position group is loaded with former highly ranked recruits with now years of experience with the program. Fans don't get to observe practices and the growth of the up and coming guys, but the coaches do. The storyline I'm especially interested in seeing is who emerges for A'lique Terry's OLine. Of course Poncho will be starting at Center but thats about the only real given. It was reported that RG Dave Iuli was playing through torn tricepts during the season and that he further tore it during the Rotten Peach bowl which is why he went out in the first half. He's now had surgery and should be 100% by the fall but I wouldn't be that surprised to see someone surpass him. I was impressed with Fox Crader filling in at LT... heck I thought he was better then World. Will Nacho immediately step into a role? You'd think at least some of the 4 highly rated dudes from the 2025 class will be ready and there are others like Wilson, Ferguson & Rodgers too. Thats 11 guys I've mentioned being at least in the mix. Then add in Yale transfer Michael Bennett. I expect Terry will put together another great unit.

STOMP

 

[wizenheimer]

Is it really an advantage if any school could have done the same? Doesn't seem unfair. It isn't like they colluded or anything. Its actually a great story, I think. A bunch of unheralded guys that won a title and grew into players. I mean Miami wouldn't even consider Mendoza.

I saw a list on OLive today that had multiple media outlets with the Ducks in the top 5 for next year. Including a few that had them at #1. Maybe their style of recruiting younger guys will work out for them next year.

Cignetti brought 13 core players from an 11-1 JMU team to Indiana in 2024, and 31 transfers. He 'processed' 39 Indiana players out the door at the same time. The following season, he brought in 23 more transfers and processed 27 more out the door

so then, 54 in, and they made up all but one of the starters and most of the 2 deep. Over the same 2 year stretch that Indiana was bringing in 54 transfers, Oregon brought in 25. But more than that, Indiana was bringing in transfers that were mostly 3-star out of HS, which that survey used as the baseline, but who had established themselves as 4-star talent by their 3rd or 4th seasons. That's where that survey is skewed. The advantage of the transfer portal is that teams can gauge players by what they've actually done against college competition rather than rolling the dice on high school tape.

This supposed low-talent Indiana team had 21 players selected to the All-Big-10 teams (Oregon had 14), and that includes the Heisman winner

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Cignetti brought 13 core players from an 11-1 JMU team to Indiana in 2024, and 31 transfers. He 'processed' 39 Indiana players out the door at the same time. The following season, he brought in 23 more transfers and processed 27 more out the door

so then, 54 in, and they made up all but one of the starters and most of the 2 deep. Over the same 2 year stretch that Indiana was bringing in 54 transfers, Oregon brought in 25. But more than that, Indiana was bringing in transfers that were mostly 3-star out of HS, which that survey used as the baseline, but who had established themselves as 4-star talent by their 3rd or 4th seasons. That's where that survey is skewed. The advantage of the transfer portal is that teams can gauge players by what they've actually done against college competition rather than rolling the dice on high school tape.

This supposed low-talent Indiana team had 21 players selected to the All-Big-10 teams (Oregon had 14), and that includes the Heisman winner

K - and any college team could do that same thing if they wanted to.

Stats can be put together in many different ways. You know that. May not be super reflective of the entire picture, but thats what stats are. They can be easily manipulated in anyway that confirms someone's biases. I've seen many people do that on this board.

If a coach leaves one school, don't we all say, man, I hope he is able to bring with him his good players! James Madison is not some powerhouse. They didn't seem to be too affected either way because they still made the College Playoffs....

It is a very cool story that these players improved that much. Which in general has something to do with coaching too.

 

[wizenheimer]

K - and any college team could do that same thing if they wanted to.

Indiana couldn't have till Mark Cuban became involved

I'm making, or trying to make, some main points: the first is that dipshit article you linked abandoned all context just to make a dipshit argument. The metric used rated Heisman winner Mendoza as a 3 star talent; and 1st team All-America LB Aiden Fisher as a 3-star talent.; and all-Big-10 WR as a 3-star talent; and all-Big-10 CB D'Angelo Ponds as a 3-star. But by the time they were playing Monday night they were all 5-star talents. And they were all transfers

no doubt the transfer portal has upended a lot of assumptions. But what hasn't been upended is the reality that elite talent still wins championships. What Indiana did extraordinarily well is wait for that elite talent to surface and grab them off the portal. Cignetti did a masterful job of assembling a roster. But it was still a perfect storm of circumstance. For instance, Indiana went 15 consecutive games without losing a fumble. That will never happen again

but again, the point is that Indiana was not a low-talent team this season; to pretend they were is nuts. They had elite talent all across their roster.

as a Duck fan I've advocated for Oregon to use the portal even more than they do. The 'old' template was to load up on as much high-rated talent as you could knowing that a lot of them would bust or disappoint. The transfer portal is a much more efficient use of resources

 

[wizenheimer]

if you do the math, that means that the average NIL deal cleared was $7.344. Not even $10,000. Obviously elite players will command a lot more but it does indicate that some of the numbers being thrown around by people who don't know are almost guaranteed to be bullshit

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Indiana couldn't have till Mark Cuban became involved

I'm making, or trying to make, some main points: the first is that dipshit article you linked abandoned all context just to make a dipshit argument. The metric used rated Heisman winner Mendoza as a 3 star talent; and 1st team All-America LB Aiden Fisher as a 3-star talent.; and all-Big-10 WR as a 3-star talent; and all-Big-10 CB D'Angelo Ponds as a 3-star. But by the time they were playing Monday night they were all 5-star talents. And they were all transfers

no doubt the transfer portal has upended a lot of assumptions. But what hasn't been upended is the reality that elite talent still wins championships. What Indiana did extraordinarily well is wait for that elite talent to surface and grab them off the portal. Cignetti did a masterful job of assembling a roster. But it was still a perfect storm of circumstance. For instance, Indiana went 15 consecutive games without losing a fumble. That will never happen again

but again, the point is that Indiana was not a low-talent team this season; to pretend they were is nuts. They had elite talent all across their roster.

as a Duck fan I've advocated for Oregon to use the portal even more than they do. The 'old' template was to load up on as much high-rated talent as you could knowing that a lot of them would bust or disappoint. The transfer portal is a much more efficient use of resources

Mark Cuban and Phil Knight both have the ability to spend as much as they want on NIL. Or any other billionaire if they so please. That is not cheating, thought I would say it is a huge advantage for any school that has a billionaire invested in their program.

We will just have to disagree on the article being a dipshit one. I think it is a decent snapshot, again, that should be applauded. Those kids all worked hard to improve their games. And it worked out for them in the end.

If we want to find an article on "talent level" going into the season, the preseason rankings are one way of looking at it. But, i'm sure there are articles around that link what folks thought of the talent on each Big 10 team before the season started.

Another thing - the draft will be a flawed, but decent marker for how other view their talent. While it would not be 1:1, since say Oregon is keeping their highest ranked guy in Moore, it will be some sort of data point folks can go off of.

Fwiw ' Indiana has 5 guys mocked in the 4 round mock on Tankathon while Oregon has 6.

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

Continue to believe what you want. Those reports are leaving out a lot of $, especially from private donors.
I know someone who is on the staff for the Oregon State basketball team. He knows the $ that OSU players are getting, including guys on the football team. Maalik Murphy for example got $1.5M to transfer to OSU. That's a fact. It's not a rumor. If that bum is getting that much, then you know damn well that stud QB's like Dante Moore and Raiola are easily getting $3M+.
so again, continue to stick your head in the sand

 

[wizenheimer]

Continue to believe what you want. Those reports are leaving out a lot of $, especially from private donors.
I know someone who is on the staff for the Oregon State basketball team. He knows the $ that OSU players are getting, including guys on the football team. Maalik Murphy for example got $1.5M to transfer to OSU. That's a fact. It's not a rumor. If that bum is getting that much, then you know damn well that stud QB's like Dante Moore and Raiola are easily getting $3M+.
so again, continue to stick your head in the sand

pound sand yourself

when have I claimed that Moore & Raiola aren't being paid? Answer: never. My guess is Moore is getting 4-6M; Raiola 1.5-2.5M. My guess is that the returning front-4 on the DLine are getting 800K-1.2M each. For Washington and Tuioti it might even be more. I think the returning C is probably getting around a million. Finney may be getting more than that. If Oregon lands Jordan Seaton it will probably be because they are paying him 2-3M

I have never once claimed that Oregon isn't a major spender of NIL. I don't why the fuck you keep implying I have. I'm just disputing the wild numbers being thrown around; or that Oregon was ever the 2nd highest spender in FBS

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

you just said this!!!

does indicate that some of the numbers being thrown around by people who don't know are almost guaranteed to be bullshit

 

[wizenheimer]

Mark Cuban and Phil Knight both have the ability to spend as much as they want on NIL. Or any other billionaire if they so please. That is not cheating, thought I would say it is a huge advantage for any school that has a billionaire invested in their program.

We will just have to disagree on the article being a dipshit one. I think it is a decent snapshot, again, that should be applauded. Those kids all worked hard to improve their games. And it worked out for them in the end.

If we want to find an article on "talent level" going into the season, the preseason rankings are one way of looking at it. But, i'm sure there are articles around that link what folks thought of the talent on each Big 10 team before the season started.

Another thing - the draft will be a flawed, but decent marker for how other view their talent. While it would not be 1:1, since say Oregon is keeping their highest ranked guy in Moore, it will be some sort of data point folks can go off of.

Fwiw ' Indiana has 5 guys mocked in the 4 round mock on Tankathon while Oregon has 6.

we will never agree on the merits of that article

but here's a simple way to distill it down: Do you believe that Indiana was the 72nd most talented team in FBS this season?

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

we will never agree on the merits of that article

but here's a simple way to distill it down: Do you believe that Indiana was the 72nd most talented team in FBS this season?

I don't think thats the point i'm getting from the article. The point is, a snapshot of where the players were ranked at the time they were coming out of high school. It is literally a data point. Some schools obviously choose to use the transfer portal more than others. It is called strategy open to all schools. There is no "advantage" other than the advantage of money and billionaires backing their funding.

As i've stated previously, if you want to know what the rankings are for a talented team going into the season, i'm sure there are metrics that show that, preseason rankings, again, are one data point, although flawed in its own way.

Indiana deserves credit for coaching up their players to the level of competition they faced. They obviously did not start the season as a favorite as they were ranked #20 there.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Here is the 2025 transfer portal rankings. Indiana is #25, while Oregon was #5.

2025 Transfer Football Team Rankings

In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.

247sports.com

Here is the 2024 transfer portal rankings. Indiana is #30 and Oregon is #2.

I'm unsure if those rankings are based on their transfer stars or high school stars. To sample, Indiana is said to have 2 four star guys that transferred in 2024 and 26 three star guys. Elijah Saratt was a 4 star guy. Looking back at his high school star rating, he was rated with no stars. William Depaepe was another 4 star transfer, that was a high school 3 star guy, so it appears that ranking is meant to include star ratings based on where they were in the portal.

These are from the same website the article linked to for the high school recruiting rankings.

 

[wizenheimer]

 

[Natebishop3]

Here is the 2025 transfer portal rankings. Indiana is #25, while Oregon was #5.

2025 Transfer Football Team Rankings

In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.

247sports.com

Here is the 2024 transfer portal rankings. Indiana is #30 and Oregon is #2.

I'm unsure if those rankings are based on their transfer stars or high school stars. To sample, Indiana is said to have 2 four star guys that transferred in 2024 and 26 three star guys. Elijah Saratt was a 4 star guy. Looking back at his high school star rating, he was rated with no stars. William Depaepe was another 4 star transfer, that was a high school 3 star guy, so it appears that ranking is meant to include star ratings based on where they were in the portal.

These are from the same website the article linked to for the high school recruiting rankings.

247 sucks because they don't factor in the players that are leaving. Only the players coming in.

2025 College Football Team Transfer Portal Rankings

The 2025 college football transfer portal team rankings.

www.on3.com

Oregon was #4 and Indiana was #13.

Right now Indiana is #1 and Oregon is #29

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

247 sucks because they don't factor in the players that are leaving. Only the players coming in.

2025 College Football Team Transfer Portal Rankings

The 2025 college football transfer portal team rankings.

www.on3.com

Oregon was #4 and Indiana was #13.

Right now Indiana is #1 and Oregon is #29

Yeah, right now is for next year. Will be interesting to see how next year plays out. Oregon certainly is getting some early early hype in rankings for 26.

For 2024 and 2025 Oregon was ahead of Indiana.

 

[Hoopguru]

The son of an Oregon Ducks legend is taking a recruiting visit to Eugene

A busy visitors weekend is ahead for the Ducks, and it will include a familiar name.

www.oregonlive.com

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

ESPN ranks portal transfers

19.​

There was some anxiety in Eugene earlier in January. The Ducks lost both coordinators and saw nearly twice as many players exit via the portal compared to new arrivals. But Dante Moore's return eased some worries, and Oregon didn't have a ton of holes to fill in the first place.

Dan Lanning and his staff were shrewd in their additions. They replaced standout safety transfer Dillon Thieneman with another high-end option in Koi Perich out of Minnesota. Perich was one of the best players available regardless of position. He's a dynamic athlete and reliable tackler with great recognition skills along with a nose for the ball.

Moore's future replacement, Dylan Raiola, now gets a year to grow and prove he's willing to take a long-term approach to his development. Oregon also has a trio of five-star freshmen on the way, so the cupboard remains well stocked. https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ege-football-transfer-portal-2026-top-classes

 

[wizenheimer]

OLive posted an article detailing Oregon's financial reports; there's a ton of numbers there if anyone is interested

Oregon Ducks’ athletics shows net revenue gains in football, overall during 2025 fiscal year

The money is rolling in from Big Ten conference distributions for the Ducks.

www.oregonlive.com

just for clarity, FY 2025 actually started on July 1, 2024. So basically, all the numbers were generated in Oregon's first full year in the Big-10

*******************************************************************



I guess this is no surprise. Just about all sports at all schools lose money except for football. T&F at Oregon losing 6M is a bit eye-popping. I'm wondering if this will continue once Knight is no longer with us

***************************************************************************



now that is a little deceptive. It's true that UofO/UofW only get a 'half' share of the football GOR (it's actually a bit above a half-share and that increases incrementally each year). But there are other ancillary revenue distributions for CFP and March Madness that Oregon receives a full share of. IIRC, I'd think the Ducks received in the 30-32M range for their half-share. Meaning their share of the Ancillary income was in the 17-20M range. From those numbers, you can extrapolate that the rest of the Big-10 teams received about 80M in media distributions.

I remember reading projections that by the end of Big-10 media deals in 2030, teams might be getting 100M in media revenue and UofO/UofW could be getting 60M+.

 

[Natebishop3]

OLive posted an article detailing Oregon's financial reports; there's a ton of numbers there if anyone is interested

Oregon Ducks’ athletics shows net revenue gains in football, overall during 2025 fiscal year

The money is rolling in from Big Ten conference distributions for the Ducks.

www.oregonlive.com

View attachment 80178
View attachment 80179

just for clarity, FY 2025 actually started on July 1, 2024. So basically, all the numbers were generated in Oregon's first full year in the Big-10

*******************************************************************

View attachment 80180

I guess this is no surprise. Just about all sports at all schools lose money except for football. T&F at Oregon losing 6M is a bit eye-popping. I'm wondering if this will continue once Knight is no longer with us

***************************************************************************

View attachment 80181

now that is a little deceptive. It's true that UofO/UofW only get a 'half' share of the football GOR (it's actually a bit above a half-share and that increases incrementally each year). But there are other ancillary revenue distributions for CFP and March Madness that Oregon receives a full share of. IIRC, I'd think the Ducks received in the 30-32M range for their half-share. Meaning their share of the Ancillary income was in the 17-20M range. From those numbers, you can extrapolate that the rest of the Big-10 teams received about 80M in media distributions.

I remember reading projections that by the end of Big-10 media deals in 2030, teams might be getting 100M in media revenue and UofO/UofW could be getting 60M+.

Not surprising.

Football is still wildly popular. College hoops sucks.

I really don't see any path for track to make money. Who watches it?

 

[Predator]

Cignetti brought 13 core players from an 11-1 JMU team to Indiana in 2024, and 31 transfers. He 'processed' 39 Indiana players out the door at the same time. The following season, he brought in 23 more transfers and processed 27 more out the door

so then, 54 in, and they made up all but one of the starters and most of the 2 deep. Over the same 2 year stretch that Indiana was bringing in 54 transfers, Oregon brought in 25. But more than that, Indiana was bringing in transfers that were mostly 3-star out of HS, which that survey used as the baseline, but who had established themselves as 4-star talent by their 3rd or 4th seasons. That's where that survey is skewed. The advantage of the transfer portal is that teams can gauge players by what they've actually done against college competition rather than rolling the dice on high school tape.

This supposed low-talent Indiana team had 21 players selected to the All-Big-10 teams (Oregon had 14), and that includes the Heisman winner

How many are going to get drafted out of Indiana though

That’s the real indicator of talent

 

[wizenheimer]

How many are going to get drafted out of Indiana though

That’s the real indicator of talent

no it's not. The NFL and FBS are two different things

Royce Freeman was the 7th leading rusher of all time in the NCAA but did very little in the NFL. LMJ ran roughshod over the Pac-12 for 3 seasons but had no impact on the NFL. Marcus Mariota was the Heisman winner and the best player in FBS in 2014 but never really succeeded in the NFL. Casey Matthews and Michael Clay were all-Pac-12 LB's who did next to nothing in the NFL

sometimes....a lot of times....players can be elite and/or dominant in college and end up with mediocre or worse college careers

 

[Hoopguru]

Legacy returns to Eugene. 2027 linebacker Sam Ngata, son of Hall of Famer Haloti Ngata, commits to Oregon during Junior Day, fulfilling a lifelong dream to be a Duck.