Oregon State Beavers 2025 (3 Viewers)

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wizenheimer said:
I was "giggling with some Duckies"...there are plenty here
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Do it in the Ducks thread. Pretty shitty to take a shit on a dog when it's already dead.

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I keep reading about the Beavs joining the Big-12. Wonder if there’s anything to it?
 
What happens when realignment leaves a college football team behind
Over the first quarter of the 21st century, Washington State and Oregon State combined for five AP top-10 finishes and shares of two conference titles -- modest totals, sure, but superior to those of Arizona, Arizona State, Cal and Colorado combined. Over the past six seasons, Wazzu's average SP+ rating ranked fifth in the Pac-12, Oregon State's seventh. They have been solid mid-tier, power-conference programs in recent times, and their highs have been higher than those of many of their peers.

None of this matters, of course. In last summer's depressing conference realignment free-for-all, the Pac-12's leaders failed to come up with a sufficient television deal, and, with furrowed brows and great displays of consternation, eight programs made moves they said they preferred not to make: Oregon and Washington followed USC and UCLA to the Big Ten with diminished media rights shares; Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah left for the Big 12; and Cal and Stanford left for a conference with "Atlantic" in its title (ACC).

Meanwhile, the programs in faraway Corvallis, Oregon, and Pullman, Washington, were left without a home. OSU and Wazzu have maintained the rights to the Pac-12 brand while forming short-term scheduling coalitions with the Mountain West (in football) and West Coast Conference (in other sports). But the Pac-12 as we knew it no longer exists, there is no longer a power conference based in the Pacific time zone, and Oregon State and Washington State have been, for all intents and purposes, left behind.

Following all of these demoralizing developments, both programs began 2023 with a point to prove. Washington State beat two ranked teams (Wisconsin and Oregon State) and began October unbeaten and 13th in the AP poll. And despite the loss to the Cougars, Oregon State spent the entire regular season ranked and rose as high as 10th heading into the back half of November. But Wazzu lost seven of its final eight games to finish 5-7, and after an 8-2 start, Oregon State first suffered a narrow loss to unbeaten Washington, then lost to Oregon and Notre Dame by a combined 71-15.

Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith left for the Big Ten's Michigan State and took some assistants with him, and in addition lost three NFL draftees. The Beavers then proceeded to lose starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State), QB-of-the-future Aidan Chiles (Michigan State), star running back Damien Martinez (Miami), No. 1 receiver Silas Bolden (Texas), tight end Jack Velling (Michigan State), all-conference guard Tanner Miller (Michigan State), linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (USC), rush end Sione Lolohea (Florida State), safety Akili Arnold (USC) and corner Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) to schools in power-conference programs. Wazzu's losses were less extensive following the team's late collapse, but quarterback Cam Ward (Miami), receiver Josh Kelly (Texas Tech) and cornerback Javan Robinson (Arizona State) departed for power-conference programs.

What has happened to these programs is just impossibly cruel and demoralizing. But if there's any reassurance whatsoever to be found, it's that these schools are not alone. Other programs have been left behind before, and those that kept their acts together and figured out ways to continue fielding strong teams were eventually rewarded. (Others, not so much.) Here are the stories of 10 postwar programs that lost their relative power-conference status and what happened next.

Jump to a section:
Raiding the Pacific Coast | SWC demise
Big East Frankenstein | What's ahead for Pac-2

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Culling of the Pacific Coast Conference
Montana Grizzlies[/paste:font]
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Last 10 years before demotion: 4.5 average wins, 18.7% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 2.3 average wins, 5.6% average SP+ percentile rating

Idaho Vandals[/paste:font]
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Last 10 years before demotion: 3.3 average wins, 26.9% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 3.4 average wins, 20.3% average SP+ percentile rating

TCU Horned Frogs
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Last 10 years before demotion: 4.8 average wins, 33.8% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 7.3 average wins, 48.9% average SP+ percentile rating

Houston Cougars
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Last 10 years before demotion: 4.6 average wins, 46.5% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 4.4 average wins, 25.0% average SP+ percentile rating

SMU Mustangs
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Last 10 years before demotion: 2.6 average wins, 17.3% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 3.8 average wins, 18.3% average SP+ percentile rating

Pony Excess days, SMU slowly slipped under the steady drip of sanctions, then was forced to cease all football operations in 1987-88 when it refused to, uh, stop cheating.

As it turns out, the death penalty works. SMU returned to play in 1989 and enjoyed just one above-.500 season (a bowl-less 6-5 campaign under Mike Cavan in 1997) over the next 20 years as a member of first the WAC, then Conference USA. June Jones managed to create both an offensive identity and a steady bowl presence in the early 2010s, however, and after falling apart in their first seasons in the AAC, the Mustangs rebounded once more. They enjoyed their first 10-win season in 35 years under Sonny Dykes in 2019, and after Dykes left for rival TCU a couple of years later, Rhett Lashlee led SMU to its first ranked finish in 39 years last fall. This recent success, combined with the Dallas market and a willingness to gamble by foregoing all media rights revenue for a few years, earned them an ACC invitation.

Rice Owls
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Last 10 years before demotion: 3.7 average wins, 29.5% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 4.8 average wins, 26.8% average SP+ percentile rating

basketball powerhouse in the 1980s, it attempted to secure a bright future by bringing in football brands such as Miami and Virginia Tech in the 1990s and found some success. But it was always a Frankenstein of basketball and football schools.

In the 2000s, the conference lost Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC and grabbed whatever it could to survive -- DePaul and Marquette on the basketball side, Cincinnati, Louisville (which it would also lose to the ACC) and USF on the football side -- and as it prepared to raid the mid-major ranks for more football programs in the early-2010s, the basketball schools decided enough was enough. They formed a new Big East, and the remaining football schools formed the AAC.

The Big East had a power-conference designation when the BCS existed, but when the College Football Playoff came about in 2014, it no longer recognized the AAC as a power. That meant four Big East holdovers -- Cincinnati, UConn, USF and Temple -- all entered the left-behind zone. (You could technically say the same for the AAC's four 2013 additions: Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF. But we'll say they weren't around long enough to get truly left behind at this time.)

Cincinnati Bearcats
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Last 10 years before demotion: 8.0 average wins, 66.9% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 8.6 average wins, 61.2% average SP+ percentile rating

UConn Huskies
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Last 10 years before demotion: 6.9 average wins, 61.1% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 3.0 average wins, 10.3% average SP+ percentile rating

South Florida Bulls
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Last 10 years before demotion: 6.5 average wins, 62.2% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after demotion: 5.0 average wins, 34.4% average SP+ percentile rating

intriguing young coaches -- and the Tampa-St. Petersburg market might be intriguing enough to make them candidates for future expansion of a Big 12 or ACC if they can both get and keep their act together. But for now, it seems like the AAC is about the right weight class.

Temple Owls
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If we don't count Houston and SMU, Temple might be the only program to ever get left behind twice. The Owls were booted from the Big East in 2005 for general ineptitude -- in 14 years of Big East membership, they averaged 2.1 wins and never won more than four games in a season. But after they got their act together in the refuge of the MAC, they were brought back to the Big East in 2012 ... just in time for it to become the AAC in 2013.

Last 10 years before first demotion: 2.4 average wins, 22.8% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after first demotion: 4.8 average wins, 26.0% average SP+ percentile rating

Last 10 years before second demotion: 4.3 average wins, 23.6% average SP+ percentile rating

First 10 years after second demotion: 5.8 average wins, 39.1% average SP+ percentile rating

Washington State Cougars
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Last 10 years before demotion: 6.6 average wins, 62.1% average SP+ percentile rating

2024 SP+ projections.

Oregon State Beavers
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Last 10 years before demotion: 4.6 average wins, 41.9% average SP+ percentile rating

Before beginning a surge under Jonathan Smith in 2021, Oregon State had endured a solid run of struggle, with seven straight losing seasons from 2014 to 2020. Winning 18 games in 2022-23 was great, and the recent success is propping up the Beavers' SP+ projections despite the extreme personnel losses. They were 44th in the initial February projections, and they'll probably be in the mid-50s, close to Wazzu, when the May updates are released. With the MWC schedule at hand, that should keep them in the realm of bowl eligibility.

When it comes to future power-conference membership, it's hard to say anything particularly encouraging at the moment. But as the Beavers face a future in either the Mountain West or a remodeled Pac-12 that strongly resembles the MWC, they can at least take heart in the fact that we have no idea what the future holds in terms of conference alignment and that, even though it's not really their fault they're in this position to begin with, if they field successful football teams moving forward -- more TCU, less UConn -- they could improve their lot a few years down the line.
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Just gotta hold it together for a few years. The Beavs may never compete for a national championship but if we can build back and go to a mid tier bowl every year, that's at least something. I guess I'm at the acceptance stage of grief at this point...
 
Looks like the Cardinal came to play. Out-hit the Beavs 9-4, and struck out 10 Beavs en route to the 2-1 win. Stanford moves on to the tournament semifinals, and OSU needs to beat ASU tomorrow and then hope that UA wins their pool (or loses both of their games).
 
Success!! Beavs hopes of advancing hang on Arizona beating Cal--in a game the Wildcats don't need, but the Golden Bears do.
 
Bears win, Beavs are out. Arizona and the California schools advance to the semis.
 
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