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(Note: My plan had been to make one of these this in-depth for each of the teams with potential for significant cap space. But I don't want to bury "real" posts on the board. I could cut each one down to the "conclusion" part and do a thread for each division or conference, with backup numbers if you really wanted them, or do it like this. Let me know. Thanks!)
Team Situations: Atlanta
1. Guaranted roster spots
As the roster currently stands, there is $18.6M committed to the following 3 players/buyouts:
Horford: $12.0M
Lou Williams: $5.2M
Jenkins: $1.3M
And $100k for Jeremy Tyler’s buyout. This doesn’t count as or for a roster hold.
The non-guaranteed contracts of Stevenson ($2.2M) and Scott ($0.8M) are worth another $3.0M in space. I can’t think that they’d cut the developing 2nd-round rookie Scott just to save about 300k in cap space (difference between him cap number and a roster hold). Stevenson (on a $2.2M contract) somehow started 31 games for the Hawks, sporting a stellar 8.1 PER but acting as Atlanta’s enforcer. It may be a situation of the devil you know for $2.2M being better than having an extra $1.7M in space and trying to find a glue guy later. So running cap number could be as low as $18.6M, or $19.4M by jettisoning only Stevenson, but I imagine it will be bumped to a likely $21.6M.
Atlanta is locked (for right now) into the #17 and #18 pick in the draft, for cap holds of $2.6M. Running cap number is between $21.2M and $24.2M, most likely $24.2M.
$490k hold for each unoccupied roster spot under 12. With the 3 guaranteed players and the two draft picks, that leaves 7 holds at $490k apiece or $3.43M. Once someone is signed, or Stevenson’s or Scott’s contracts are picked up, or the Qualifying Offers are signed (or another hold is enforced) then that $490k hold goes away. In keeping with the projections so far, the running cap number is now between $24.6M and $26.7M, most likely $26.7M.
2. Uncertain (Potential) free agent cap holds:
ATL has some decisions to make. Their potential cap hold situation looks like this:
Josh Smith $16.4M
Devin Harris $12.8M
Zaza Pachulia $7.8M
Kyle Korver $7.5M
Johan Petro $6.7M
Jeff Teague $6.1M
Dahntay Jones $5.5M
Ivan Johnson $1.3M
Teague and Johnson are the only ones that would be RFA’s with an extended Qualifying Offer. Teague’s QO is $3.5M. Ivan Johnson's QO cap number is $1.2M. I don’t think there’s any way that a) Teague signs for only a 1yr/$3.5M QO or b) the Hawks let him go for nothing (since Lou Williams tore an ACL and Devin Harris is UFA). So I think they bite the bullet on his QO/RFA hold. Johnson’s in the same situation as Scott—you’re only saving about $800k in cap space by renouncing him, and he’s a player that’s been working in your system. I think both of these players are offered the QO and their cap holds kept. Running cap number is between $32.1M and $34.2M, most likely $34.2M.
ATL are in the same situation with the other free agents’ sign-and-trade potential as we are with Hickson, but with significantly higher chance of a sign-and-trade. They can renounce all of their FA’s from their cap hold and use the space to sign a FA outright, trade for one who's been S&T'd or just make a lopsided trade using space. Or, they could keep the holds and make signs-and-trades, but the cap space decreases while they wait. OR, they could renounce all of their holds, then wait to see who draws sign-and-trade interest, and sign the player using available cap space while immediately trading him.
3. 2013-14 Salary Cap
This year's salary cap number was $58.044M, a luxury tax line of $70.307M and the apron of $74.307M. For 2013-14, it will be 53.51% of BRI (minus benefits) divided among the 30 teams. As a rough calculation (NOT the official one) I use 1.21*(salary cap projection) to get my luxury tax projections. If the 60M salary cap projection is to be believed, then the tax line would be about 72.6M and the apron would be 76.6M. This year is the first year of the "incremental" tax rate, and 2014-15 will be the first year of the the "repeater rate" penalty.
4. Other tidbits:
Moratorium is July 1-July 9. First available time to sign is July 10 12:01. New free agents can be visited 12:01am EST July 1.
The non-taxpayer MLE is $5.15M.
The taxpayer MLE is $3.183M.
The room exception (for teams that started out below the salary cap): $2.652M. Can only be a maximum of 2 years.
The BAE (if you are below apron--$4M over tax-- and didn't use whichever MLE or room you qualified for) is $2.016M.
The draft picks cap holds are as follows:
#17: $1.35M
#18: $1.28M
To receive a player in a S&T, you cannot end up above apron after your trade, and cannot have used MLE already.
Cash available for trades $3.2M total for the year. You cannot buy a pick for $3.2M, sell a pick for $3.2M, and buy a new one for $3.2M.
5. Conclusion:
ATL’s most likely scenario (keeping their two picks at #17 and #18, picking up the 2nd year of Stevenson and Scott and offering QO’s to Teague and Johnson) means a cap number (including roster holds) of $34.2M. You would subtract this number from whatever the new salary cap is to get your "cap space". Assuming this year’s cap of $58.044M is applied next year as well, then the cap space in the most likely scenario is $23.8M. If ATL waive Stevenson and don’t offer Johnson the QO, then that moves to $26.4M (remember, if the players are waived/QO not extended, that incurs a $490k "roster" hold).
However, I think it highly unlikely that the cap doesn't go up to at least $60M, which would give the Hawks $25.8M in space in the "most likely" scenario and $28.4M if the team waives Stevenson and doesn't offer Johnson the QO.
Team Situations: Atlanta
1. Guaranted roster spots
As the roster currently stands, there is $18.6M committed to the following 3 players/buyouts:
Horford: $12.0M
Lou Williams: $5.2M
Jenkins: $1.3M
And $100k for Jeremy Tyler’s buyout. This doesn’t count as or for a roster hold.
The non-guaranteed contracts of Stevenson ($2.2M) and Scott ($0.8M) are worth another $3.0M in space. I can’t think that they’d cut the developing 2nd-round rookie Scott just to save about 300k in cap space (difference between him cap number and a roster hold). Stevenson (on a $2.2M contract) somehow started 31 games for the Hawks, sporting a stellar 8.1 PER but acting as Atlanta’s enforcer. It may be a situation of the devil you know for $2.2M being better than having an extra $1.7M in space and trying to find a glue guy later. So running cap number could be as low as $18.6M, or $19.4M by jettisoning only Stevenson, but I imagine it will be bumped to a likely $21.6M.
Atlanta is locked (for right now) into the #17 and #18 pick in the draft, for cap holds of $2.6M. Running cap number is between $21.2M and $24.2M, most likely $24.2M.
$490k hold for each unoccupied roster spot under 12. With the 3 guaranteed players and the two draft picks, that leaves 7 holds at $490k apiece or $3.43M. Once someone is signed, or Stevenson’s or Scott’s contracts are picked up, or the Qualifying Offers are signed (or another hold is enforced) then that $490k hold goes away. In keeping with the projections so far, the running cap number is now between $24.6M and $26.7M, most likely $26.7M.
2. Uncertain (Potential) free agent cap holds:
ATL has some decisions to make. Their potential cap hold situation looks like this:
Josh Smith $16.4M
Devin Harris $12.8M
Zaza Pachulia $7.8M
Kyle Korver $7.5M
Johan Petro $6.7M
Jeff Teague $6.1M
Dahntay Jones $5.5M
Ivan Johnson $1.3M
Teague and Johnson are the only ones that would be RFA’s with an extended Qualifying Offer. Teague’s QO is $3.5M. Ivan Johnson's QO cap number is $1.2M. I don’t think there’s any way that a) Teague signs for only a 1yr/$3.5M QO or b) the Hawks let him go for nothing (since Lou Williams tore an ACL and Devin Harris is UFA). So I think they bite the bullet on his QO/RFA hold. Johnson’s in the same situation as Scott—you’re only saving about $800k in cap space by renouncing him, and he’s a player that’s been working in your system. I think both of these players are offered the QO and their cap holds kept. Running cap number is between $32.1M and $34.2M, most likely $34.2M.
ATL are in the same situation with the other free agents’ sign-and-trade potential as we are with Hickson, but with significantly higher chance of a sign-and-trade. They can renounce all of their FA’s from their cap hold and use the space to sign a FA outright, trade for one who's been S&T'd or just make a lopsided trade using space. Or, they could keep the holds and make signs-and-trades, but the cap space decreases while they wait. OR, they could renounce all of their holds, then wait to see who draws sign-and-trade interest, and sign the player using available cap space while immediately trading him.
3. 2013-14 Salary Cap
This year's salary cap number was $58.044M, a luxury tax line of $70.307M and the apron of $74.307M. For 2013-14, it will be 53.51% of BRI (minus benefits) divided among the 30 teams. As a rough calculation (NOT the official one) I use 1.21*(salary cap projection) to get my luxury tax projections. If the 60M salary cap projection is to be believed, then the tax line would be about 72.6M and the apron would be 76.6M. This year is the first year of the "incremental" tax rate, and 2014-15 will be the first year of the the "repeater rate" penalty.
4. Other tidbits:
Moratorium is July 1-July 9. First available time to sign is July 10 12:01. New free agents can be visited 12:01am EST July 1.
The non-taxpayer MLE is $5.15M.
The taxpayer MLE is $3.183M.
The room exception (for teams that started out below the salary cap): $2.652M. Can only be a maximum of 2 years.
The BAE (if you are below apron--$4M over tax-- and didn't use whichever MLE or room you qualified for) is $2.016M.
The draft picks cap holds are as follows:
#17: $1.35M
#18: $1.28M
To receive a player in a S&T, you cannot end up above apron after your trade, and cannot have used MLE already.
Cash available for trades $3.2M total for the year. You cannot buy a pick for $3.2M, sell a pick for $3.2M, and buy a new one for $3.2M.
5. Conclusion:
ATL’s most likely scenario (keeping their two picks at #17 and #18, picking up the 2nd year of Stevenson and Scott and offering QO’s to Teague and Johnson) means a cap number (including roster holds) of $34.2M. You would subtract this number from whatever the new salary cap is to get your "cap space". Assuming this year’s cap of $58.044M is applied next year as well, then the cap space in the most likely scenario is $23.8M. If ATL waive Stevenson and don’t offer Johnson the QO, then that moves to $26.4M (remember, if the players are waived/QO not extended, that incurs a $490k "roster" hold).
However, I think it highly unlikely that the cap doesn't go up to at least $60M, which would give the Hawks $25.8M in space in the "most likely" scenario and $28.4M if the team waives Stevenson and doesn't offer Johnson the QO.
