(OT) Grizzlies give Conley a 5 year, $40-45 mil extension

[Minstrel]

Yes. The decisions are all out of the blazers hands. Other teams will now dictate how much he is worth. Nothing Portland can do about it.

If this were a Rudy Gay situation for Portland, where the player was likely to be overvalued on the market, that would concern me.

If anything, Oden is likely to be undervalued on the market, because his raw stats haven't been eye-popping and "Oden's a bust" talk has been circulating. So it doesn't seem like a big problem to me that other teams will set the market for Oden.

 

[Nikolokolus]

the only stupid decision IMO is not keeping Oden here no mattter the consequences. Too much invested, this team is not winning a championship without him, so why chance it.

If he's that pivotal to this team's future he'll prove it on the court this year. If he does there's nothing being "chanced" except that the team weighs its choice to match an offer sheet or not (that may or may not be as lucrative as you seem to think it will be).

Let's say the Blazers had just locked Oden into a long term, fully guaranteed deal and contracts in the next CBA end up being only partially guaranteed and are cut in value by up to 30%, but all existing contracts get grand-fathered in? And for the sake of argument, let's say Oden's pattern of injuries continues, but he never quite gets to the point where he takes a medical retirement. And let's say that because of all that money committed to him it costs us the ability to retain a guy like Nic Batum because there's a hard cap in place ...

As tantalizing as Oden's potential might be (or once was?) counting on him to carry this team seems like a pretty thin hope at this point -- a bit like the Lakers counting on Bynum to be their savior -- I have a feeling it's getting close to a time when this team will be making alternate plans that allow Greg's contributions to be considered "gravy" instead of irreplaceable.

 

[Nikolokolus]

For me, as a fan, its all or nothing with G.O. I've got too much emotionally invested here.

And that's why they pay Cho the big bucks, to make the non-emotional decisions with only the franchise's best interests in mind. If that means keeping Greg for a price they can live with at the end of the day so be it, if it means they don't think he's worth the risk, then ...

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

If this were a Rudy Gay situation for Portland, where the player was likely to be overvalued on the market, that would concern me.

If anything, Oden is likely to be undervalued on the market, because his raw stats haven't been eye-popping and "Oden's a bust" talk has been circulating. So it doesn't seem like a big problem to me that other teams will set the market for Oden.

Rudy Gay wasn't overvalued until Memphis gave him that money. That shit came straight out of left field as did this Conley contract. We know the grizzlies are willing to throw money around at unproven quantities. By them not re=upping gasol and commiting this much to Conley, I think they're sending a message to Oden that they're going to throw it in the bag for him.

No, the market is weak and there are desparate teams out there with cap room. Guy like Dan Gilbert needs to make an impact statement after losing LeBron...so why not offer a max to the local kid stats be damned. Its not like he'll attract much in Cleavland, this is really his only chance to get a superstar type player.

We've seen what the Grizzlies have done contract wise so don't even try to second guess.

A team like Oklahoma City needs a big man, and even if GO is merely "servicable", the mere fact that him and Durant end up on the same team will put them as a marquee team. What, they'll try to get guys like Gasol? Ok..whatever.

A lot of this can be spun for GO as "a new start" marketing wise and owners know this, it will sell seats and they can capitalize on Portland's failure.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

And that's why they pay Cho the big bucks, to make the non-emotional decisions with only the franchise's best interests in mind. If that means keeping Greg for a price they can live with at the end of the day so be it, if it means they don't think he's worth the risk, then ...

Cho? make a decision? This is just an example of overanalyzing and not being able to make his mind up.

 

[Minstrel]

A team like Oklahoma City needs a big man, and even if GO is merely "servicable"

Eh, no. OKC is not going to max out Oden if they think he'll be merely serviceable.

the mere fact that him and Durant end up on the same team will put them as a marquee team. What, they'll try to get guys like Gasol? Ok..whatever.

Gasol certainly would provide them with a more certain big man. Considering they're built around Durant, I can definitely see them going for a Gasol-like solution.

I think you're overhyping the likelihood that Oden gets maxed out. If he comes back in November or December, plays all the rest of the games and playoffs, and plays like a beast...I can see a few teams taking a gamble and offering him a max deal. If he comes back and plays like he did last year--really well, but foul-limited minutes--then I don't see any team offering him a max deal.

If he suffers another major injury, I doubt any team will offer more than the MLE (if that still exists with the next CBA).

 

[andalusian]

A team like Oklahoma City needs a big man, and even if GO is merely "servicable", the mere fact that him and Durant end up on the same team will put them as a marquee team. What, they'll try to get guys like Gasol? Ok..whatever.

OKC needs to pay big money to Westbrook, maybe even close to a max. I just do not see how they can afford to have 3 max contracts in Durant/Westbrook/Oden. With all due respect - I just do not see OKC giving him anything that the Blazers will even have to think twice about to match.

Cleveland? Maybe. It's a risk. But imho, not a big one. The Cavs are going to be in a real problem getting people to come see them if they fail - so they can't afford to take a flyer on Oden unless it is clear that he is a Max player, and if he does, the Blazers again will have no problems paying him the Max.

So, honestly, I am a lot less concerned than you are.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

OKC needs to pay big money to Westbrook, maybe even close to a max. I just do not see how they can afford to have 3 max contracts in Durant/Westbrook/Oden. With all due respect - I just do not see OKC giving him anything that the Blazers will even have to think twice about to match.

Cleveland? Maybe. It's a risk. But imho, not a big one. The Cavs are going to be in a real problem getting people to come see them if they fail - so they can't afford to take a flyer on Oden unless it is clear that he is a Max player, and if he does, the Blazers again will have no problems paying him the Max.

So, honestly, I am a lot less concerned than you are.

Bird rights FTW.

Cleavland might be a team that could lose their franchise, losing LeBron was HUGE. They are not going to get free agents and building through the draft will take forever Its either offer Oden a max contract or forever remain mediocre playoff fodder. Remember, Dan Gilbert BADLY wants to beat LeBron and Oden going there, being local and fulfilling his potential is as likely as any conceivable situation they could have.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I think you're overhyping the likelihood that Oden gets maxed out. If he comes back in November or December, plays all the rest of the games and playoffs, and plays like a beast...I can see a few teams taking a gamble and offering him a max deal. If he comes back and plays like he did last year--really well, but foul-limited minutes--then I don't see any team offering him a max deal.

If he suffers another major injury, I doubt any team will offer more than the MLE (if that still exists with the next CBA).

I think you're wrong in these scenarios. Even with a major injury, he will get more than the MLE. He's still young and as long as if its not a career ender, it shouldn't be a problem especially for fringe teams like the Grizzlies and Cavs.

If he plays like he did last year but remains injury free, he's getting a max deal. If he finishes the season without another injury no matter how he plays, he's getting a max deal guaranteed. Oden is still the talent he was coming out of the draft, he's just been injured. GMs aren't stupid, they know this and if he gets through the season, they'll open their wallets to try to pry him from portland, performance be damned.

 

[Minstrel]

I think you're wrong in these scenarios. Even with a major injury, he will get more than the MLE. He's still young and as long as if its not a career ender, it shouldn't be a problem especially for fringe teams like the Grizzlies and Cavs.

If he plays like he did last year but remains injury free, he's getting a max deal. If he finishes the season without another injury no matter how he plays, he's getting a max deal guaranteed. Oden is still the talent he was coming out of the draft, he's just been injured. GMs aren't stupid, they know this and if he gets through the season, they'll open their wallets to try to pry him from portland, performance be damned.

Well, I'll give you this: you certainly have strong opinions on Greg Oden.

I mean, I thought I had strong opinions on Oden. But you really have strong opinions on Oden.

 

[andalusian]

Bird rights FTW.

Bird rights do not pay the bills when it comes time to pay the salaries. OKC does not have somone like Paul that can pay luxury tax year in, year out.