OT: number of teams

[mook]

Nice piece of research.

Also works to look at guys 6'3 or shorter. There were 71 in 1977, there are 76 this year.

Given that the league has 23% more franchises now than then, that means the average number of short players per team has gone down by roughly 20%.

Think a guy like Andre Miller or Chauncy Billups wouldn't lick his chops at the opportunity to play against a significantly shorter league?

Just had to correct my math there. There were 276 NBA players in 1977. There are 382 this year. So the pool of players overall have expanded by 27%, while the pool of short players (guys listed at 6'3 or less) has grown by 6%. It's a much taller league now.

 

[Denny Crane]

I would counter that the 80's and 90's had an even better crop of centers. Ewing, Olajuwon, Robinson, Shaq, the tail end of Kareem's career... And the league size wasn't much different then than it is now, so expansion is a distant second explanation to there simply being a lack of quality post players nowadays. Lots of 6'11" perimeter players, mind you, just not many classic centers. I attribute that to the game having changed, rather than dilution due to too many teams.

There have been 6 expansion teams since 1988: Charlotte, Miami, Minnesota, Orlando, Toronto, and Vancouver (Memphis)

I don't agree that the Ewing, Olajuwon, Robinson, Shaq era was better for centers than the 1970s to mid 1980s. I named 8 centers, you named 5. I can name quite a few more - like Robert Parrish, Swen Nater, Wes Unseld, Mark Eaton, and if you want to play the "tail of the career" game, Wilt. Just about every team had a great one or a very good one. Those that didn't had guys like Tree Rollins, who'd be an all-star at C in the modern NBA.

FWIW.



One of the reasons the talent pool was so concentrated was the merger of the ABA with the NBA. There's no longer a competing professional league in the US, one that steals #1 picks from the NBA (and the ABA took hardships as well).

 

[handiman]

Fine, throw Mourning, Mutumbo, Smits, etc. into the discussion and the numbers remain pretty much even...

 

[Denny Crane]

Fine, throw Mourning, Mutumbo, Smits, etc. into the discussion and the numbers remain pretty much even...

Throw those guys in, and you're still nowhere close to the number of true centers I named. I can name more as well: Nate Thurmond, Mychal Thompson, Tom Boerwinkle, Ewing, Olajuwan, Mutombo, Ralph Sampson...

While you guys are naming PFs to get a quantity of names going, I haven't even gone there. Maurice Lucas is the tip of that iceberg.

To get the league this diluted with talent, we're taking in a bunch of Euro players. Toronto is basically all Euro players and they suck. Should be an indication of how they're (elsewhere) diluting the overall talent.

 

[RR7]

How, choosing 70s to mid 80s are you naming Mutombo, Olajuwon, ewing?

 

[Denny Crane]

How, choosing 70s to mid 80s are you naming Mutombo, Olajuwon, ewing?

My bad about Mutombo. Olajuwan was drafted in 1984. Ewing was drafted in 1986.

 

[RR7]

yes, so they were drafted in the mid 80s. Their era wasn't 70s to mid 80s, it was mid 80s and 90s.

 

[Denny Crane]

yes, so they were drafted in the mid 80s. Their era wasn't 70s to mid 80s, it was mid 80s and 90s.

So it's OK to name Kareem in the 90s. Gotcha. Though he retired after the 88-89 season. Alvan Adams, who I haven't mentioned so far.

Regardless, there aren't anywhere near the number of quality bigs today.

There always were perimeter bigs. Larry Bird was a PF who played SF and shot from 3pt range. Bill Laimbeer is another obvious big who shot from outside. McAdoo made his living from range. Dave Cowens. Dan Issel. Mickey Johnson.

There always were big players at the skills positions. Guys like Magic, Oscar Robertson, George Gervin, Marques Johnson, Pippen, Cornbread Maxwell...

I would counter that the 80's and 90's had an even better crop of centers. Ewing, Olajuwon, Robinson, Shaq, the tail end of Kareem's career... And the league size wasn't much different then than it is now, so expansion is a distant second explanation to there simply being a lack of quality post players nowadays. Lots of 6'11" perimeter players, mind you, just not many classic centers. I attribute that to the game having changed, rather than dilution due to too many teams.

 

[RR7]

Quality bigs who often got to go up against smaller talent. A guy 6'8" nowadays gets called an undersized PF. In the 70s, they played C. Going off of the 76-77 season you listed earlier, teams like Boston, starting C 6'9" 230. Biggest guy on their team. That's David West sized. NY, McAdoo? 6'9" 210. Buffalo's leading rebounder was 6'9". Nets leading rebounder? 6'9" 200. I mean, Darius Miles probably had 20 pounds on the guy. You want to just name Cs from the current era, but PFs nowadays would be Cs then. Aldridge, 6'11", 257? He'd be dominant playing against midgets half the time. I think Gerald Wallce would likely play C. Again, PFs nowadays are undersized if they are as tall as some Cs then. Naming a few doesn't make the league full of them. Wes Unseld, 6'7" 245. Cleveland's leading rebounder? You guessed it, 6'9", 210. Issel, 6'9", 235. It goes on with PFs masquerading as Cs. So yes, the league was FULL of great big men. And so it is now. But when looking at the list now, make sure to add the likes of Bosh, Aldridge, Amare, Boozer, West, Millsap, Jefferson, Z-Bo, David Lee, Kevin Love, etc., because they'd all be Cs then.

 

[Denny Crane]

They may well have been C's back then, but we're really playing PFs at C these days, and have been for a while.

Dave Cowens was considered an undersized center in his day.

Wilt was 7'1".

Kareem was maybe 7'4" - he was freakishly tall and didn't ever let anyone measure him. He's listed at 7'2".

Artis Gilmore was 7'2".

Swen Nater was 6'11" 240 lbs - same size as Dwight Howard.

Moses Malone was 6'10.

Boerwinkle was 7'0".

Sampson was 7'3", but skinny as a toothpick.

Hakeem was 7'0".

Bob Lanier was 6'11" 250 lbs.

Bill Walton was 6'11".

Tree Rollins was 7'1".

Robert Parish was 7'.

Mark Eaton was 7'4".

Nate Thurmond was 6'11".

Unseld was amazing because he was so short (6'7"), but his ass was wide and he was a terrific defender, rebounder, a gifted passer, and particularly great at the outlet pass.

In that 76-77 season, the top 5 rebounders were: Walton, Kareem, Malone, Gilmore, McAdoo. Caldwell Jones, 6'11" was among the blocks leaders.

 

[RR7]

Hakeem and Sampson don't really count for your 70s and mid 80s, except for a season. But whatever. tree Rollins? he never averaged double figures in points or rebounds in a season ever. How is he someone to use as an example? Just because he's tall? Fucking A. I'll add Darko as one of our greats currently. Gimme a break.

Going through the mid 80s and 90s, Hakeem, Ewing, Brad Daugherty, David Robinson, Mutombo, Shaq, Mourning, amongst others. On top of that, most teams in the 90s had a 7 footer, or close, that they could play on D against other bigs, as opposed to guys battling eachother every 3rd night, but then getting games against Darius Miles sized Cs most nights, as they did in the 70s.

 

[maxiep]

Kevin Durant would have been a center in the 1970s.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_Rollins

Wayne Monte "Tree" Rollins (born June 16, 1955, in Winter Haven, Florida) is a retired American professional basketball player who played 18 seasons in the National Basketball Association for the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic. He was primarily known under his playing name, Tree. The 7-foot-1-inch 275 pound Clemson graduate played center, and gained high esteem for his defense, particularly his rebounding and shot-blocking ability. He finished in the top three in blocked shots six times, leading the league during the 1982-83 NBA season. At the time of his retirement in 1995, he was fourth all-time in career blocked shots, behind only Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Mark Eaton.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darko_Miličić

Darko Miličić (Serbian: Дарко Миличић; born June 20, 1985) is a Serbian professional basketball center for the Minnesota Timberwolves of the National Basketball Association (NBA). He was selected by the Detroit Pistons as the second overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft after LeBron James, and ahead of players such as Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade. However, Miličić never received significant playing time during his 2½ seasons with the team and was traded to the Orlando Magic in 2006. After stints with the Memphis Grizzlies and New York Knicks, Miličić was traded to the Timberwolves in 2010, then signed a four year contract in the off-season.




The thing is, if all these PFs today that you say would be playing C back then, who'd be the PFs today? Darius Miles. I get it.

 

[RR7]

Tweeners. Smaller PFs. Marion. Gerald Wallace. Outlaw.

 

[RR7]

Another thing is to look at some of those bigs' weights. Sean Marks at 6'10" is 250. And he looks scrawny as hell. You see some of those guys listed 6'9. 6'10 210.

 

[Denny Crane]

Tweeners. Smaller PFs. Marion. Gerald Wallace. Outlaw.

As opposed to guys like Kevin McHale, Elvin Hayes, Maurice Lucas, George McGinnis, Spencer Haywood, Truck Robinson, Charles Barkley, Bobby Jones, Sidney Wicks, Larry Kenon, Cornbread Maxwell, Kermit Washington, Buck Williams, Dan Roundfield and sooo many more I can name.

 

[RR7]

sooo many more guys who weigh 210 pounds? Awesome. Keep it up.

 

[Denny Crane]

sooo many more guys who weigh 210 pounds? Awesome. Keep it up.

Shawn Marion and Travis Outlaw would get their lunch money taken away by the guys I listed.

Which proves my point quite well.

 

[RR7]

I think they'd happily donate their lunch money. 6'9", 210, those PFs are needing an extra lunch. I don't think that proves your point at all. The big guys you listed were able to get fat playing half of their games against 6'8, 6'9 Cs. Or what would now be considered PFs. Some undersized. Many, judging by the weight. So while I listed only Cs from the 80s and 90s, it left off Malone, Barkley, Kemp, Rodman, etc. PFs, the size of those Cs. Yeah, I'd like to see Bobby Jones, all 6'9", 210 of him covering Karl Malone on a post up. Shit, he couldn't cover JEFF Malone. (Who at 6'4", was only 5 pounds less. Haha)

 

[Denny Crane]

Rodman was 6'7", 210. Smaller than Bobby Jones. Won DPOY awards guarding your list of PFs.

Same weight as Bobby Jones, who was all nba defense 1st team for 8 straight seasons.

 

[handiman]

There have been 6 expansion teams since 1988: Charlotte, Miami, Minnesota, Orlando, Toronto, and Vancouver (Memphis)

Yet only one team has been added since Jordan was winning his final championships and the league was at its best in terms of popularity. Where was the contraction talk back then?

To get the league this diluted with talent, we're taking in a bunch of Euro players. Toronto is basically all Euro players and they suck. Should be an indication of how they're (elsewhere) diluting the overall talent.

That's a horrible example. Toronto has stocked Euro players as a strategy, not out of necessity.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I'm confused--Is Denny attempting to argue that the players back in the 70s/80s were more talented or more skilled? If it's the former, exactly how do you define "more talented"? Clearly they're not physically superior; the more recent big men are on the whole bigger, taller, stronger. If it's the latter, then it would be more a coaching issue than talent dilution.

So, exactly what are we arguing here?

 

[Denny Crane]

Yet only one team has been added since Jordan was winning his final championships and the league was at its best in terms of popularity. Where was the contraction talk back then?

As I mentioned earlier, the merger of the ABA and NBA concentrated the talent even more. When all those guys became a memory, it became obvious the talent level is quite diluted. There's no off/on switch to say exactly when the dilution happened, it was gradual.

That's a horrible example. Toronto has stocked Euro players as a strategy, not out of necessity.

It does point to how maybe 10% of your players as good as Toronto's Euros means the talent is diluted by 10%.

For PtldPlatypus:

Why does bigger, taller, stronger have anything to do with it? If all the taller players were 8' and 400 lbs and the PGs were Tim Duncan size with his PG skills, wouldn't you say the game pretty much sucks? That is, if Duncan were the best of the PGs, they'd all be a lot worse than the PGs of today or of past decades.

 

[mook]

So height and strength doesn't matter when playing basketball. That's a new one to me.

I still don't understand your "dilution". I've already proven that US population expanded at the same rate as the number of franchises expanded. So the talent pool expanded at the exact same rate as franchises expanded. What is diluted?

 

[Denny Crane]

So height and strength doesn't matter when playing basketball. That's a new one to me.

I still don't understand your "dilution". I've already proven that US population expanded at the same rate as the number of franchises expanded. So the talent pool expanded at the exact same rate as franchises expanded. What is diluted?

You didn't prove what you think you did...

The population grew by 30M hispanics since about 1984, and half the population growth since 2000. So by your reasoning, the NBA would have added a hundred hispanics?

Big and strong is great for the big positions. Big and strong is only good for the skill positions if you have skills, and most big/strong guys don't.

But since we have a bunch of lesser skilled bigger guys being guarded by a bunch of lesser skilled bigger guys, they do "OK" but the game isn't so great.

 

[mook]

You didn't prove what you think you did...

The population grew by 30M hispanics since about 1984, and half the population growth since 2000. So by your reasoning, the NBA would have added a hundred hispanics?
.

Wait, what? From my quick research, the population of hispanics grew about 20 million in that span. But let's say you are right. Let's throw them out. (We'll have to throw out Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, Eduardo Najera, Carlos Aroyo and probably a few others I'm forgetting too. But fuck them. They are hispanics. Fuck HCP too, but that's another issue.)

That means the US population of Important People expanded by 41 million people instead of 71 million, or 13%, while franchises expanded by 23%. That's how you define dilution. The NBA is 10% less pure than it was back then, and that's why it was a vastly superior league back then.

Except...what about the other demographic issues I brought up:

On top of that, over 20% of NBA players are from overseas, when that numbers was 1 or 2% back then. That means the talent pool has basically expanded by 20% while the number of teams have remained the same.

On top of that, thanks to Michael Jordan, Bird and Magic, the NBA had far, far more kids playing hoops in the 80's and 90's in the US than in the 70's, so the domestic talent pool is even larger than the raw numbers show.

On top of that, thanks to miracle surgeries, better training and better diets, good players can generally play more years than they used to be able to, again expanding the available talent pool.

And what about money? Surely a fiscally conservative person like yourself thinks financial motivation plays into this. Wouldn't million dollar salaries attract a larger percentage of the US population toward playing pro basketball than the $25k salaries of that era?

 

[Denny Crane]

I've got nothing against Hispanics, but I am pointing out we're not seeing the odds-based population logic you're using applied to the population of NBA players. My hunch is there aren't enough Hispanics tall enough or who are interested in basketball over soccer or maybe the NFL.

As far as the Euro players logic, the NBA could really expand its talent pool by bringing in children. Seriously, I don't get the logic here. The Europeans are effectively D-Leaguers (if that good), so your increased player pool is not as good, per capita/player.

As a fiscally conservative person and someone who's followed the marketing programs of the NBA, it's pretty clear that Stern has envisioned the NBA being international, because there are huge markets out there beyond our borders.

 

[mook]

And this is before we even get into advances statistical analysis that help guys like Battier, the superior training facilities, personal chef/diets, personal trainers, crazy awesome travel arrangements, plethora of assistant coaches, etc. All of that must do something to make the league more competitive, or they wouldn't pay so much money to have it.

 

[mook]

As far as the Euro players logic, the NBA could really expand its talent pool by bringing in children. Seriously, I don't get the logic here. The Europeans are effectively D-Leaguers (if that good), so your increased player pool is not as good, per capita/player.

Yeah, guys like Dirk, Pau, Manu, Sabonis, Batum, Parker, and Yao are just a bunch of D-Leaguers. There's absolutely no evidence that the influx of foreign players has brought any quality to the NBA game.

 

[Denny Crane]

And this is before we even get into advances statistical analysis that help guys like Battier, the superior training facilities, personal chef/diets, personal trainers, crazy awesome travel arrangements, plethora of assistant coaches, etc. All of that must do something to make the league more competitive, or they wouldn't pay so much money to have it.

I agree the training, especially weight lifting (muscle makes guys heavier) is quite advanced compared to, say, before the Bulls dynasty (when they a new stadium with modern training facilities). I'm not convinced that putting on bulk has anything to do with making players actually play better. Anecdotally, a guy like Kirk Hinrich puts on pounds and changes from a quick and athletic dunker (in college) into a pretty slow floor bound kind of player. And we see injuries to the bigger guys far more frequently, particularly legs, knees, and feet.