OT: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

[KingSpeed]

What I'm hearing from someone in the know is that if Cleveland wins the title this June, LeBron will stay with the Cavs. And I'm told that there is only a "three percent chance, " those exact words, that LeBron will leave the Cavs (most likely to New York) if they lose.

Math problem: if there's a 100% chance that he stays if they win and a 3% chance that he leaves if they lose, what is the overall percentage??

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

There's a missing piece of info: while there's a 3% chance he signs with the Kncks if they lose, is there a 97% chance he stays with the Cavs? Or is there a 50% chance he goes to some other team, etc.?

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

There's a missing piece of info: while there's a 3% chance he signs with the Kncks if they lose, is there a 97% chance he stays with the Cavs? Or is there a 50% chance he goes to some other team, etc.?

Okay. To be more clear. Here's exactly what I'm hearing:

If Cavs win, 100% chance he stays with Cleveland
If Cavs lose, 97% chance he stays, 3% chance he leaves

Another source calculated that the Cavs have a 12.9% chance of winning the title.

So what is the overall percentage that LeBron leaves?

EDIT: 25.4 that Cavs reaches the Finals but only 12.9 that the Cavs win the whole thing.

 

[WarriorFan]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

That would be 2.6%, but those numbers sounds completely made up to me.

 

[Mamba]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

Did you lose your meds?

 

[hasoos]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

Actually it is:

100% chance he stay if they win.
3% chance he leaves to NY if they lose. That doesn't count other teams.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

Actually it is:

100% chance he stay if they win.
3% chance he leaves to NY if they lose. That doesn't count other teams.

Exactly. So, if we accept KingSpeed's quoted probabilities (including the Cav's chances of winning a title), we can calculate that there's a 2.6% chance that he's a New York Knick next season (the 87.1% chance that the Cavs don't win multiplied by the 3% chance that he goes to New York in that eventuality).

 

[LameR]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

Sources: KS is a silly goose. 3% chance of this being false.

 

[44Thrilla]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

My source is telling me it's more like 4%.

 

[blue32]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

can there be a new post limit for the day put on his account?

and shouldnt this be in the CLE forum?

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose)

Sources: KS is a silly goose. 3% chance of this being false.

Exactly! You're saying that there's a 97% chance my sources are correct!

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

My sources say that your sources are wrong, according to another source.

 

[THE HCP]

I think if he wins it, there is MORE of a chance he bolts then if he doesn't!

 

[KingSpeed]

I think if he wins it, there is MORE of a chance he bolts then if he doesn't!

That's not what I heard on the street.

 

[Sex Panther]

What's KingSpeed's PER?