OT: Thunder are going to make the playoffs

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KingSpeed

KingSpeed

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They're only 2 games behind the 8th spot in the loss column. The question is will they compete with us for the division. Thoughts?
 
Too early to tell unfortunately. Durant had a Jones Fracture.
That bone is thin and can be re-accruing. I hope it doesn't because I never wish injury on a player.
More time needed to see if Durant doesn't fracture it again.
 
It will be interesting to watch OKC climb upward in Hollinger's playoff odds as they continue to rack up wins. After their two most recent wins, they jumped from 0.9% to 5.4%. Although Hollinger's simulations weigh recent performance they do not comprehend that OKC's slow start was due to injuries to their two best players. I think most informed humans would put OKC's chances of making the playoffs, barring further significant injuries, at >90%. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the computer model to catch up to the human perception.

On the bright side, as their playoff chances go up, their odds of winning the lottery (currently 2.3%) go down.

BNM
 
I posted this in another thread:

Boise Blazer said:
And/or we need to win. We are basically trading buckets with them at this point. But the great thing is that we can control our own destiny if we want to.
Click to expand...

I really feel like if we play over .700 ball they would have to play record ball to catch us. But also consider if we win the season series that gets even harder for them to do.
 
They are going to be a hellish matchup for whoever has to go against them in the first round.
 
SheedSoNasty said:
They are going to be a hellish matchup for whoever has to go against them in the first round.
Click to expand...
Maybe there is a little but of hope that they expend so much energy getting there that they run out of gas in the playoffs. Maybe not but I wonder.
 
SheedSoNasty said:
They are going to be a hellish matchup for whoever has to go against them in the first round.
Click to expand...

Any team with Kevin Durant is going to be a challenge in the playoffs, no matter what the round. However, their lack of depth was exposed in last year's playoffs when 3 of their starters combined to average less than 15ppg. During the San Antonio series they were forced to juggle their starting line up to try to get more scoring, and that further weakened their bench scoring. When Ibaka was out, they had multiple games where they had more than one starter go scoreless and 3 starters combine for less than 10 points. Posters here constantly whined about our bench being incapable of scoring 25 ppg, but OKC had 60% of their starting line up incapable of contributing 15 ppg. Of course, that was when Ibaka was out, but even with Ibaka back, they had two starters (Perkins and Sefolosha) incapable of scoring 5ppg in the playoffs.

Sefolosha is gone and Steven Adams is starting in place of Perkins, but Adams at 7.3ppg isn't exactly an offensive machine. When Durant and Westbrook were out, they were forced to start guys like Andre Roberson (3.9 ppg) and Lance Thomas (5.6 ppg), two more offensively challenged players, which is why they had such a horrible record leading up to the return of their two star players. They signed Anthony Morrow to give them more bench scoring, and Morrow, Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb are all averaging over 10 ppg, but they are also all averaging over 25 mpg. Their combined minutes and scoring will go down significantly now that Durant and Westbrook are back.

Durant and Westbrook are known factors, it''s the rest of that roster that will determine how deep they go in the playoffs. If teams are allowed to practically ignore the 2 or 3 of the other players on the court and focus all their defensive attention on Durant and Westbrook, they will struggle to score. Reggie Jackson is their third best scorer, but he plays the same position as Westbrook. They do play them both together at times, and were forced to start Jackson in the SAS series to get somebody else on the court that was a legitimate scoring threat, but Jackson's effectiveness goes down when he's forced to "share" the ball with Westbrook. I think OKC's playoff success will really come down to how much guys like Morrow, Jones and Lamb produce during the playoffs. Sure, Durant and Westbrook will do what they do and will rack up tons of points, but unless some of their other players step up, their lack of depth could again hurt them in the post season.

They have two all stars/superstars, and like Houston their stars are considered better than ours, but we have a much better, more balanced starting 5 and with the additions of Kaman and Blake, a better bench, too. I think a POR vs. OKC series would be very similar to POR vs. HOU last year, tightly contested, with most games coming down to the wire, but like against Houston, I think in the end, our better balance would prevail in the end.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
They have two all stars/superstars, and like Houston their stars are considered better than ours, but we have a much better, more balanced starting 5 and with the additions of Kaman and Blake, a better bench, too. I think a POR vs. OKC series would be very similar to POR vs. HOU last year, tightly contested, with most games coming down to the wire, but like against Houston, I think in the end, our better balance would prevail in the end.

BNM
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If I were the Thunder and round one was against the Blazers... I'd be more worried defensively matching up than I would be worried about offense.
But then again you had some valid points in outside of Durant/Westbrook who will consistently give them points working off the ball.

Honestly if I were OKC I'd want to avoid the Blazers... Too many matchup problems.
Basically any series where Ibaka has to leave the paint on a regular biases severely hurts their defensive strategy.
Meaning they might want to avoid the Mavs also...
I don't think they want Adams on Dirk or Aldridge.
 
If I were OKC and in the playoffs, I'd just relax, knowing the NBA and ESPN have a great narrative they're selling on our behalf, meaning we can't lose in the first round. It's a lock. The fix is already in.
 
Hollinger Playoff Odds for OKC now up to 11.6% and they are only 2.5 games behind PHO for the 8th seed. They are definitely making the playoffs, the only questions is can they move up enough to get HCA. They are currently 8.0 games out of the 4th seed.

BNM
 
They'll be top 8 by Christmas at the latest. Breaking into to 7 will be tough though. I think top 7 West teams are all title contenders.
 
Thunder are now over .500 (21-20) for the first time all season after beating Miami last night. Since starting the season 3-12, they have gone 18-8, a .692 win percentage. Apply that over their next 41 games, and they would go about 28-13, which would put them at 49-33 for the year. HollingerBot's playoff odds projects them in the 9 spot with 45 wins, 1 behind Phoenix. Pretty likely OKC actually passes Phoenix for that 8 spot by season's end. Their reward for their trouble--the likely 65+ win Warriors.

I think I will be rooting for both teams to do well the remainder of the season. They deserve each other in the first round; it just feels right.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Thunder are now over .500 (21-20) for the first time all season after beating Miami last night. Since starting the season 3-12, they have gone 18-8, a .692 win percentage. Apply that over their next 41 games, and they would go about 28-13, which would put them at 49-33 for the year. HollingerBot's playoff odds projects them in the 9 spot with 45 wins, 1 behind Phoenix. Pretty likely OKC actually passes Phoenix for that 8 spot by season's end. Their reward for their trouble--the likely 65+ win Warriors.

I think I will be rooting for both teams to do well the remainder of the season. They deserve each other in the first round; it just feels right.
Click to expand...
I would love that too! That would be such a terrible first round match up for the Warriors!
 
Perfect scenario (other then OKC not making the playoffs period) is for OKC and GS to play each other in the first round. Would be must-see TV as well.
 
magnifier661 said:
I would love that too! That would be such a terrible first round match up for the Warriors!
Click to expand...

Sorry Mags, but I have to strongly disagree. I hope you intended that to be green font, or perhaps you were channeling your inner Kingspeed.

GSW is a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE match up for OKC. Other than maybe the Spurs (just because they are the Spurs), the Warriors are the worst possible match up for OKC. Other than Durant, the Warriors are as good, to considerably better than the Thunder at all positions, better and more efficient offensively, better defensively, they are deeper and better coached.

The one, and only, advantage the Thunder have is Durant, and GSW is better equipped to defend him than any other team in the league. They have FOUR very good defenders they can throw at him. Harrison Barnes will start on Durant and Iggy will be Barnes primary back-up. If that's not enough, although Klay Thompson is listed as a SG, he's 6'7" and a very good perimeter defender. Finally, if GSW wants to go big and get physical with Durant, they can throw Draymond Green at him (with David Lee at the 4). Other than Durant being Durant, one problem most teams have is their primary defender gets worn down, or in foul trouble chasing Durant around for 4 quarters. Not a problem for GSW. If one guy gets gassed, or in foul trouble, they have three more guys who can spell him. They can throw fresh legs at him all night long.

Westbrook is OKCs second best player, but he would also be the second best PG in this series, and the margin is actually pretty big. Curry is a better, much more efficient scorer and a better distributor. Westbrook is an inefficient scorer who thinks he's way better than he actually is. As currently constructed, it is VERY likely GSW would sweep OKC. The only way OKC even wins one game is if Durant just totally goes off and is in a zone where it won't matter who is guarding him. But, thanks to Westbrook, that will only happen, at most, once. Westbrook will not stand idly by while the reigning MVP and 4-time scoring champ steals his Thunder. He will freeze Durant out, just like he always does in the playoffs (last year, Durant was the MVP and scoring champ, but Westbrook actually had more FGA/36 in the playoffs than Durant). So, unless there is a big trade, I see GSW taking out the Thunder in 4, or at most 5 games.

As far as the rest of the roster goes, Andrew Bogut is who Steven Adams wants to be when he grows up. Although he does share Bogut's tendency to get under his opponents' skin, he's not the player Bogut is. Bogut is just better all around, better scorer, better defender, much better rebounder and much better passer. Serge Ibaka is a great weak side shot blocker, but is actually a weak man-to-man defender. He simply cannot guard many power forwards. Aldridge absolutely kills him, which is why Scott Brooks often puts Perkins or Adams on Aldridge. Draymond Green is not a shot blocker like Ibaka, but a much better man-to-man defender. Plus, the Warriors also have David Lee who is fully capable of abusing Ibaka in the post. At SG. Klay Thompson is >>>>>>> than Dion Waiters or anyone else OKC cares to trot out at the 2-guard position. Thompson is a true 2-way player. OKC has a mix of 1-way specialists at this position, none of who are near the player Thompson is.

As mentioned GSW has a much better bench, with Speights, Lee and Iggy and Steve Kerr may be a rookie coach, but he may be the single biggest reason why GSW is so much better this year than last. Scott Brooks just kind of rolls the balls out there hoping Westbrook will play nice and share with Durant.

If OKC manages to get Brook Lopez, the series would be less lopsided, more likely to go 5, possibly 6 games, but adding a legitimate low post scoring threat would mostly just reduce GSW's MOV. Even with Lopez, the Warriors big man rotation of Bogut, Green, Speights and Lee is still better than OKC's rotation of Lopez, Ibaka, Adams and Collison.

Ultimately, GSW is just a much better, deeper, more balanced team than OKC. GSW is 2nd in the league in 3FG% with multiple deep threats (Curry, 3FG% = .399, Klay 3FG% = .446, Barnes, 3FG% = .440). And, that's another huge advantage GSW has over OKC. None of OKC's guards are good 3-point shooters. In fact, they suck. OKC is 26th in the league in 3FG%. Durant and Ibaka are OKC's only 3-point threats. You don't need, or even want, to guard anyone else on their roster out to the 3-point line. In fact, you want to back off Westbrook (.250 3FG%), Waiters (.267 3FG%) and Reggie Jackson (.288 3FG%) and dare them to jack up threes, and thankfully those three chuckers will oblige.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Sorry Mags, but I have to strongly disagree. I hope you intended that to be green font, or perhaps you were channeling your inner Kingspeed.

GSW is a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE match up for OKC. Other than maybe the Spurs (just because they are the Spurs), the Warriors are the worst possible match up for OKC. Other than Durant, the Warriors are as good, to considerably better than the Thunder at all positions, better and more efficient offensively, better defensively, they are deeper and better coached.

The one, and only, advantage the Thunder have is Durant, and GSW is better equipped to defend him than any other team in the league. They have FOUR very good defenders they can throw at him. Harrison Barnes will start on Durant and Iggy will be Barnes primary back-up. If that's not enough, although Klay Thompson is listed as a SG, he's 6'7" and a very good perimeter defender. Finally, if GSW wants to go big and get physical with Durant, they can throw Draymond Green at him (with David Lee at the 4). Other than Durant being Durant, one problem most teams have is their primary defender gets worn down, or in foul trouble chasing Durant around for 4 quarters. Not a problem for GSW. If one guy gets gassed, or in foul trouble, they have three more guys who can spell him. They can throw fresh legs at him all night long.

Westbrook is OKCs second best player, but he would also be the second best PG in this series, and the margin is actually pretty big. Curry is a better, much more efficient scorer and a better distributor. Westbrook is an inefficient scorer who thinks he's way better than he actually is. As currently constructed, it is VERY likely GSW would sweep OKC. The only way OKC even wins one game is if Durant just totally goes off and is in a zone where it won't matter who is guarding him. But, thanks to Westbrook, that will only happen, at most, once. Westbrook will not stand idly by while the reigning MVP and 4-time scoring champ steals his Thunder. He will freeze Durant out, just like he always does in the playoffs (last year, Durant was the MVP and scoring champ, but Westbrook actually had more FGA/36 in the playoffs than Durant). So, unless there is a big trade, I see GSW taking out the Thunder in 4, or at most 5 games.

As far as the rest of the roster goes, Andrew Bogut is who Steven Adams wants to be when he grows up. Although he does share Bogut's tendency to get under his opponents' skin, he's not the player Bogut is. Bogut is just better all around, better scorer, better defender, much better rebounder and much better passer. Serge Ibaka is a great weak side shot blocker, but is actually a weak man-to-man defender. He simply cannot guard many power forwards. Aldridge absolutely kills him, which is why Scott Brooks often puts Perkins or Adams on Aldridge. Draymond Green is not a shot blocker like Ibaka, but a much better man-to-man defender. Plus, the Warriors also have David Lee who is fully capable of abusing Ibaka in the post. At SG. Klay Thompson is >>>>>>> than Dion Waiters or anyone else OKC cares to trot out at the 2-guard position. Thompson is a true 2-way player. OKC has a mix of 1-way specialists at this position, none of who are near the player Thompson is.

As mentioned GSW has a much better bench, with Speights, Lee and Iggy and Steve Kerr may be a rookie coach, but he may be the single biggest reason why GSW is so much better this year than last. Scott Brooks just kind of rolls the balls out there hoping Westbrook will play nice and share with Durant.

If OKC manages to get Brook Lopez, the series would be less lopsided, more likely to go 5, possibly 6 games, but adding a legitimate low post scoring threat would mostly just reduce GSW's MOV. Even with Lopez, the Warriors big man rotation of Bogut, Green, Speights and Lee is still better than OKC's rotation of Lopez, Ibaka, Adams and Collison.

Ultimately, GSW is just a much better, deeper, more balanced team than OKC. GSW is 2nd in the league in 3FG% with multiple deep threats (Curry, 3FG% = .399, Klay 3FG% = .446, Barnes, 3FG% = .440). And, that's another huge advantage GSW has over OKC. None of OKC's guards are good 3-point shooters. In fact, they suck. OKC is 26th in the league in 3FG%. Durant and Ibaka are OKC's only 3-point threats. You don't need, or even want, to guard anyone else on their roster out to the 3-point line. In fact, you want to back off Westbrook (.250 3FG%), Waiters (.267 3FG%) and Reggie Jackson (.288 3FG%) and dare them to jack up threes, and thankfully those three chuckers will oblige.

BNM
Click to expand...

I do agree that GS has shown, so far, that they are a well oiled offense and defense. But Westbrick vs Curry is more level than you think. Curry is not strong enough to defend Westbrook and I would suspect OKC would be posting Westbrick constantly. The best player on the floor is still Durant. I don't care what anyone else thinks... He didn't get MVP last season as a fluke.

In the end, the playoff experience of OKC is their trump card. They've been to the finals, WCF on several occasions and many playoff games. GS hasn't even made it past the first round with the roster they have right now.

OKC and SAS will be nightmares for anyone they face in the first round because of their playoff experience alone.
 
Let's face it, there aren't going to be any cakewalks in the first round. The West is going to be brutal, 1-8.
 
e_blazer said:
Let's face it, there aren't going to be any cakewalks in the first round. The West is going to be brutal, 1-8.
Click to expand...
I agree and would add that the first round could be the difference with the match-ups. For example... I think the Blazer's best first round match-up would be Houston and their worst would be Memphis.

I think anyone that faces SAS or OKC in the first round will be sweating the team.
 
Teams in order that I would like to face in first round (not all are realistic):
HOU
DAL
LAC

Teams in order that I don't want to face in first round (not all are realistic):
MEM
SAS
OKC
 
KeepOnRollin said:
Teams in order that I would like to face in first round (not all are realistic):
HOU
DAL
LAC

Teams in order that I don't want to face in first round (not all are realistic):
MEM
SAS
OKC
Click to expand...
I would agree with this
 
magnifier661 said:
I do agree that GS has shown, so far, that they are a well oiled offense and defense. But Westbrick vs Curry is more level than you think. Curry is not strong enough to defend Westbrook and I would suspect OKC would be posting Westbrick constantly.
Click to expand...

Not a problem. Guarding Westbrook on the perimeter is a non-issue, you simply back up and let him shoot. Like with Durant, the Warriors have multiple defenders they can throw at Westbrook. If he's posting up, put the much biiger Klay Thompson on him and hide Curry on Waters or whatever other piece of crap is playing SG for OKC. They can also throw Iggy at Westbrook for stretches. And since Adams and Perkins are offensive zeros, Bogut can stay home to protect the rim when Westbrook drives. Westbrook will score plenty, but his will be his usual, inefficient ball hogging self.

magnifier661 said:
The best player on the floor is still Durant. I don't care what anyone else thinks... He didn't get MVP last season as a fluke.
Click to expand...

Yep Durant, when at the top of his game, is the best offensive player in the world. However, even after winning the MVP last year, he struggled in the playoffs. He averaged 32 ppg in the regular season, but couldn't even put up 25 ppg in the playoffs. Teams get more physical with him in the playoffs and can game plan around stropping him. As I mentioned, GSW has four very good defenders, two of them very physical, they can throw at Durant. He may be the best player on the floor in the series (Curry isn't far behind), but he can't do it all himself, especially when the opponent has the defensive players to make him really work for his points.

magnifier661 said:
In the end, the playoff experience of OKC is their trump card. They've been to the finals, WCF on several occasions and many playoff games. GS hasn't even made it past the first round with the roster they have right now.
Click to expand...

Of GSW's top 10 players, Mareese Speights is the only one who has not been to the 2nd round. Only 3 of OKC's starter and 2 of their bench players were on the team that made the finals. Of course, they had James Harden when they made the finals and haven't been able to replace his scoring since their cheap ass owners gave him away. They do have more post season experience than the Warriors, but they also have a history of underperforming in the playoffs (compared to regular season). They got severely drubbed by the Spurs last year and bounced in 5 games by MEM the year before. They may have more post season experience, but don't have the depth or overall quality of talent that GSW has. I'd fear GSW much more in the playoffs than OKC this year.

BNM
 
I'm starting to question this. I thought the Thunder would break the top 8 at Christmas. Now it's January 28th, they are 10th in the West and 3.5 games behind the #8 Suns with 36 games to go. Losing to the Knicks tells me they are not focused. I think OKC could miss the playoffs. It's actually possible. And I don't think Durant or Westbrook deserve to be All Stars this year. It will be interesting to find out what the coaches decided tomorrow.
 
We could put the nails in OKC's coffin by losing to PHX. We play them 3 more times, I believe.
 
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