Our most heinous scouts (2001-2011)

[Fez Hammersticks]

2001 - Randolph (#19)
2002 - Qyntel (#21)
2003 - Outlaw (#23)
2004 - Telfair (#13)
2005 - Webster (#6)
2006 - Aldridge (#2); Roy (#6); Freeland (#30)
2007 - Oden (#1); Fernandez (#24); Koponen (#30)
2008 - Bayless (#11); Batum (#25)
2009 - Claver (#22)
2010 - Babbitt (#16); Williams (#22)
2011 - Smith (#21)
2012 - (#6); (#11)

Out of 17 first round picks since 2001 only four are legit NBA starters. With two lotto picks and with Buchanan as the talent evaluator -- be afraid, be very afraid!

 

[GoBlazersGo]

Damn, bro... that's a pretty fucking sweet harp you have there!

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Some people would argue that Bayless could be a starter in this league. We also made a draft-day trade for Jack, so he was essentially our pick. And he's a starter. Qyntel had talent and had started to show it - he just couldn't get out of trouble. Scouting doesn't take the blame for Oden, IMO. That's the medical staff more than anything. And I wouldn't write off Freeland just yet.

But I get your point. Our last three drafts have been atrocious. I'm just starting to come around on Babbitt, but I think we could have done better. And I was excited for Williams - we really had an opportunity to see what he has, and he gets injured. Considering the number of injuries he's had in college and the NBA, he's going to earn the "injury-prone" tag pretty quickly, and you can't rely on those types.

 

[RR7]

isn't/wasn't buchanon college scouting? And only since 2004? So he wouldn't have been responsible for any euro stash, for Webster, or Telfair. No sense in showing all those years or picks to blame Buchanon.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

And no sense in putting such an ugly list of players next to such a pretty face.

Shame on you!

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'd like to see the hit/miss rate of other teams for comparison. I mean at face value it does't look real good, but how does the rate measure up?

 

[Natebishop3]

That's a depressing list.

 

[e_blazer]

I think Babbitt & Williams will turn out to be decent value for the positions they were drafted at. The scouting staff can't be blamed for the Oden pick. There's no denying he had talent galore. If there's any blame to be placed it would be on the medical staff evaluating his physicals, but I think you just have to chalk that one up to really bad luck.

 

[illmatic99]

That looks pretty bad. But I'm interested in seeing how other comparable teams, in comparable markets have fared in the same time period. The success rate for the draft doesn't seem too high for any team in the league outside of a select few.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

ZBO

 

[e_blazer]

Just for funsies, here are the Bulls' picks during the same period

2001 Eddy Curry #1
2002 Jay Williams #2
2003 Kirk Hinrich #7
2004 Ben Gordon #3
and Luol Deng #7
2009 No pick
2006 Tyrus Thomas #4
and Thabo Sefalosha*
2007 Joakim Noah 9
2008 Derrick Rose 1
2009 James Johnson 16
and Taj Gibson* 26
2012 No pick

* The Bulls drafted Sefalosha, who's a solid player in my estimation, then traded him in 2009 for the pick they used to get Taj Gibson, which in my estimation was a downgrade from a talent standpoint.

All in all, the Bulls have had better picks, but I don't really see that their hit ratio has been any better. They've had some horrible draft mistakes, but are benefiting now primarily because Derrick Rose was a true can't miss #1 pick.

 

[Drttimmy]

The Spurs ability to spot talent is widely considered good. Possibly the best in the business. Here is their run-down. Is it jawdropping? Significantly better than Portland? Granted, they're picking on the bottom end of most drafts. I don't even recognize the 05 and 06 picks....Euro stashaways?


2011 Cory Joseph, Adam Hanga
2010 James Anderson , Ryan Richards
2009 DeJuan Blair, Jack McClinton, Nando De Colo
2008 George Hill, Goran Dragic, James Gist
2007 Tiago Splitter, Marcus Williams, Giorgos Printezis
2006 Damir Markota
2005 Ian Mahinmi
2004 Beno Udrih, Romain Sato, Sergei Karaulov
2003 Leandro Barbosa
2002 John Salmons, Luis Scola, Randy Holcomb
2001 Tony Parker, Robertas Javtokas, Bryan Bracey

 

[Rastapopoulos]

1. Bad picks don't prove anything about the scouts. It doesn't even prove anything definitive about the GM. If it proves anything, it proves something about the final decision maker. But we don't know who that is. The only thing that would prove the worth of our scouts would be something like a ranking provided by the scouts before the draft. Got that on you?
2. Let's not start the whole Greg Oden thing again. If he's healthy, he's the right pick, even before Durant. Did you ever hear Lakers fans bitching about how they took James Worthy over Dominique Wilkins?
3. For this to show that our scouts are especially egregious you would have to show (a) that there are no duds before each of those picks, and (b) that the very next pick was a much better player (it's cheating if there's a great player somewhere later in the draft, because you could get that by blind luck, with very little left to choose from.

Regarding (a): I'll cover only those drafts where you didn't like our pick:
2002:

2.  Chicago             Jay Williams       Duke
5.  Denver              Nikoloz Tskitishvili Georgia
6.  Cleveland           Dajuan Wagner      Memphis
8.  Clippers            Chris Wilcox       Maryland
12. Clippers            Melvin Ely         Fresno St.
13. Milwaukee           Marcus Haislip     Tennessee
14. Indiana             Frederick Jones    Oregon
15. Houston             Bostjan Nachbar    Slovenia
16. Golden State        Jiri Welch         Chech Republic
17. Washington          Juan Dixon         Maryland	
18. Utah                Curtis Borchardt   Stanford
19. Orlando             Ryan Humphrey      Notre Dame
20. Lakers              Kareem Rush        Missouri

Plenty of stinkers there!
2003:

2.  Detroit             Darko Milicic
9.  New York            Michael Sweetney
10. Wachington          Jarvis Hayes
11. Golden State        Mickael Pietrus
13. Memphis             Marcus Banks
15. Orlando             Reece Gaines
16. Boston              Troy Bell
17. Phoenix             Zarko Cabarkapa
19. Utah                Aleksandar Pavlovic
20. Boston              Dahntay Jones
22. New Jersey          Zoran Planinic

A cavalcade of wondrousness. And this was the last "loaded" draft.

2004:

2.  Charlotte           Emeka Okafor
3.  Chicago             Ben Gordon
4.  Clippers            Shaun Livingston
6.  Atlanta             Josh Childress
8.  Toronto             Rafael Araujo
10. Cleveland           Luke Jackson
11. Golden State        Andris Biedrins
12. Seattle             Robert Swift

Okafor, Gordon, Livingston and Childress are all still in the league, but that they were chosen in the top 6 says something about the quality of the draft.

2005:

2.  Atlanta             Marvin Williams
5.  Charlotte           Raymond Felton

Yeah, that draft sucked for us. But, of course, the scouts (or Pritchard, so he claimed) wanted Chris Paul, but Nash insisted that Telfair was just as good.

2007:

4.  Memphis             Mike Conley JR
5.  Boston              Jeff Green
6.  Milwaukee           Yi Jianlian
7.  Minnesota           Corey Brewer
8.  Charlotte           Brendan Wright
11. Atlanta             Acie Law IV
13  New Orleans         Julian Wright
14. LA Clippers         Al Thornton
17. New Jersey          Sean Williams
19. LA Lakers           Javaris Crittenton

2008:

 2  Miami  Michael Beasley - PF  
 3  Minnesota  O.J. Mayo - SG  
 8  Milwaukee  Joe Alexander - SF

2009:

2.	Grizzlies	Hasheem Thabeet		C
6.	Timberwolves	Jonny Flynn		PG
8.	Knicks		Jordan Hill		PF
11.	Nets		Terrence Williams	SG
12.	Bobcats		Gerald Henderson	SG
13.	Pacers		Tyler Hansbrough	PF
14.	Suns		Earl Clark		SF
15.	Pistons		Austin Daye		SF
16.	Bulls		James Johnson		PF

2010:

2 	Philadelphia 76ers  	Evan Turner SG, 6-7, 214 Ohio State 
3 	New Jersey Nets  	Derrick Favors F, 6-10, 246 Georgia Tech 
4 	Minnesota Timberwolves  Wesley Johnson F, 6-7, 195 Syracuse 
6 	Golden State Warriors  	Ekpe Udoh F, 6-10, 240 Baylor 
8 	Los Angeles Clippers  	Al-Farouq Aminu F, 6-8, 210 Wake Forest 
11 	New Orleans Hornets  	Cole Aldrich C, 6-11, 245 Kansas 
12 	Memphis Grizzlies  	Xavier Henry G, 6-6, 210 Kansas 
13 	Toronto Raptors  	Ed Davis F, 6-9, 215 North Carolina 
14 	Houston Rockets  	Patrick Patterson F, 6-8, 223 Kentucky 
15 	Milwaukee Bucks 	Larry Sanders F, 6-9, 205 Virginia Commonwealth

Listen, I think Babbitt sucks. But look at this lot. And if it's too soon to give up on some of them, who knows about Babbitt?

 

[handiman]

"At least we aren't Charlotte."

 

[Drttimmy]

2007:

4. Memphis Mike Conley JR
5. Boston Jeff Green
6. Milwaukee Yi Jianlian
7. Minnesota Corey Brewer
8. Charlotte Brendan Wright
11. Atlanta Acie Law IV
13 New Orleans Julian Wright
14. LA Clippers Al Thornton
17. New Jersey Sean Williams
19. LA Lakers Javaris Crittenton

** The 2007 class was supposed to one of the richest classes ever, and whoa has it ever disappointed. I think this thread is making a case for a different argument: there's a lack of NBA talent coming up through the ranks and the league as a whole is suffering from it.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yeah, after looking at the drafts, I'd be happy to trade our picks now! It's starting to look like blind luck if you get anyone good. And now is the right time to do it, because draft picks are like new cars: the minute you drive them off the lot their value drops precipitously.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

It's more than luck -- it's good scouts. Look at the Knicks -- they've also managed to pick up serviceable players mid-to-late first round picks: Wilson Chandler who many barely knew about; Iman Shumpert is already one of the best defenders in the League. Even 'Jorts' looks like he can be a decent bench player in the future. Fields was in a similar situation as Chandler -- 'Who the fuck is Landry Fields?' and he's proven to be a steal.

FOUR OF SEVENTEEN first round picks are starter material. Our scouts going back an entire decade have been horrible.

We have to build through the draft and this is killing us. Don't trade the picks just make the right fucking selections!

 

[RR7]

It's more than luck -- it's good scouts. Look at the Knicks -- they've also managed to pick up serviceable players mid-to-late first round picks: Wilson Chandler who many barely knew about; Iman Shumpert is already one of the best defenders in the League. Even 'Jorts' looks like he can be a decent bench player in the future. Fields was in a similar situation as Chandler -- 'Who the fuck is Landry Fields?' and he's proven to be a steal.

FOUR OF SEVENTEEN first round picks are starter material. Our scouts going back an entire decade have been horrible.

We have to build through the draft and this is killing us. Don't trade the picks just make the right fucking selections!

They've also taken Sweetney 9th overall, Channing frye 8th, Jordan Hill 9th, Mardy Collins, Balkman in the 1st. Maciej Lampe 30th overall. That sucks. A lot of misses in their hits, which you choose to ignore conveniently. And the same could likely be said for every team.
OMG, look at their role players! Outlaw was RAW, out of HS, and 21st overall, yet was a really good 6th man for us, putting up 13 PPG, and hitting 40% on 3s. That's a really good pick at 21. Especially considering how raw he was. You can ignore him because of his role, but lets not nut over Landry Fields as a role player, then. Harrelson looks like a bench player. Awesome. So did Dante Cunningham. Should we praise our scouts for finding a decent bench player in round 2? No, of course not, but praise NY's scouts.

 

[Public Defender]

Out of all those picks, there are only two drafts that I find really awful.

2004 - the Blazers have three 1st round picks and take Sebastian Telfair, Viktor Khryapa and Sergei Monia in the mid-late first round, when Al Jefferson, JR Smith, Josh Smith, and Delonte West were all available. I have to wonder if a really good GM could have packaged all those picks together and traded up for a genuine star-quality player, like Andre Iguodala (who was taken #9 that year).

2005 - the Blazers took Martell Webster when they could've taken Chris Paul.

Those two bad years, though, allowed the Blazers to be in position to get LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Greg Oden - all of whom promised to be better players than anyone listed above, with the exception of Chris Paul. Not sure who to blame for the injury problems of Oden and Roy, or if it was just dumb, bad luck.

I do wonder about this year's allegedly "deep" draft. I hope the Blazers pull out all the stops in free agency. As this discussion demonstrates, the draft is a crap shoot (emphasis, sometimes, on crap).

 

[jlprk]

It's more than luck -- it's good scouts. Look at the Knicks -- they've also managed to pick up serviceable players mid-to-late first round picks:

That's because they give rookies playing time. With McMillan gone, maybe our draft picks will develop faster.

 

[Sinobas]

The Spurs ability to spot talent is widely considered good. Possibly the best in the business. Here is their run-down. Is it jawdropping? Significantly better than Portland? Granted, they're picking on the bottom end of most drafts. I don't even recognize the 05 and 06 picks....Euro stashaways?


2011 Cory Joseph, Adam Hanga
2010 James Anderson , Ryan Richards
2009 DeJuan Blair, Jack McClinton, Nando De Colo
2008 George Hill, Goran Dragic, James Gist
2007 Tiago Splitter, Marcus Williams, Giorgos Printezis
2006 Damir Markota
2005 Ian Mahinmi
2004 Beno Udrih, Romain Sato, Sergei Karaulov
2003 Leandro Barbosa
2002 John Salmons, Luis Scola, Randy Holcomb
2001 Tony Parker, Robertas Javtokas, Bryan Bracey

Heck of a lot better, Parker, Salmons, Scola, Barbosa, Udrih, Hill Dragic, Blair, Anderson...and that was with much lower picks....

What do we have to show for our years of sucking? LaMarcus Aldridge is the only lottery pick still on the team.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The Spurs ability to spot talent is widely considered good. Possibly the best in the business.

Maybe that's why we raided the Spurs for our last two GMs?

Notice that the strategy they employ above all is the Eurostash (and this doesn't even include the Greatest Draft Pick Evah, which is Ginobili with the last pick in the entire draft). I'm going to bold all the non-US natives in this list (that I know of - not sure about Hanga [edit: he's Hungarian]):

2011 Cory Joseph, Adam Hanga
2010 James Anderson , Ryan Richards
2009 DeJuan Blair, Jack McClinton, Nando De Colo
2008 George Hill, Goran Dragic, James Gist
2007 Tiago Splitter, Marcus Williams, Giorgos Printezis
2006 Damir Markota
2005 Ian Mahinmi (the guy missing wide open dunks for the Mavs, allowing the Thunder to squeak a win)
2004 Beno Udrih, Romain Sato, Sergei Karaulov
2003 Leandro Barbosa
2002 John Salmons, Luis Scola, Randy Holcomb
2001 Tony Parker, Robertas Javtokas, Bryan Bracey

Aren't most of the people whining about our drafting also whining about the policy of drafting non-US players? Ironic.

Of the ones not in the US, I know that Javtokas would have been great but got seriously injured (he's still a very solid shot-blocking C), Printezis bounces around the top teams in Europe, and De Colo is regarded as more of a star than his teammate Claver (and maybe his French teammate Batum). Luis Scola only ended up with Houston in exchange for "the Greek Tracy McGrady" when it looked like the latter would stay in the US while Scola wouldn't come over, when it turned out to be the other way round.

This just makes me more convinced than ever that we should have taken Mirotic in the '11 draft...

 

[jlprk]

Tying the previous post to the thread title, Pritchard often got cold feet after he drafted Euros and refused to sign them. They'd be begging to come over and he'd refuse, even after buying the pick with Allen's money. The result is that Allen and the fans are down on drafting foreigners.

In other words, I like your strategy as long as we put them onto our team pronto.

 

[barfo]

4 of 17 seems like a pretty decent record to me.

barfo

 

[crandc]

That late first round picks turn into bench players is not suprising, nor is it shameful. Remember the majority of NBA players are not starters. And most starters are not stars. I agree with Public Defender that there were 2 really bad draft years. For the others, Outlaw has skilled & athleticism but lacks, what? Basketball IQ? Work ethic? At any rate, the team got some decent play out of him. Rudy IMO could have been a star, he just wasn't the same after Ariza body-slammed him to the floor. Babbitt & Smith could still be respectable players.

I once went over 10 years of NBA drafts and suggested a reset - in nearly every case there were top picks who ranged from bust to role players and late picks who ranged from good to stars. It's always a bit of a gamble. A good GM & good luck means win more than you lose. But not 100%.