Over/Under -- 59 Wins

[santeesioux]

59 sounds good to me right now.

 

[THE HCP]

I just hope that if we don;t jump our win total by 10 again everybody on won't go crazy and call the season a failure. There comes a time when the win total won't drastically go up every year.

 

[Idog1976]

I just hope that if we don;t jump our win total by 10 again everybody on won't go crazy and call the season a failure. There comes a time when the win total won't drastically go up every year.

It's all about the playoffs. I want to see us get to at least the 2nd round if not the WCF. I think that's doable, but it gets a lot harder if we don't have HCA.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I just hope that if we don;t jump our win total by 10 again everybody on won't go crazy and call the season a failure. There comes a time when the win total won't drastically go up every year.

Blazersedge.com ran a really nice piece on this topic the other day, and in a nutshell Dave's assertion was that when you stink you hang your hat on incremental improvements measured in sheer wins and losses, but once you are a playoff team and get there repeatedly win-loss totals mean fuck all, it all comes down to what you do with it. I'd be much happier to see this team win 55 games and get to the conference semis than I would be to see a 60+ win season flushed down the drain in a first round exit.

I hope people don't obsess too much over the regular season record (of course I know that's a fool's hope) and can keep things in proper perspective -- it's all about seeding and homecourt from here on out, if that means winning fifty games and that gets the job done who cares.

 

[STOMP]

I had them pegged at 60 games prior to landing Miller and he was the FA I hoped for.

If they avoid injuries I'm bumping that up to 62. Once a team locks up home court they tend to take the foot off the gas down the stretch or I'd actually predict more. This is a talented and deep team that should continue the impressive point differential they were posting the 2nd half of last year. They enter the elite team mix this season.

STOMP

 

[oldmangrouch]

Blazersedge.com ran a really nice piece on this topic the other day, and in a nutshell Dave's assertion was that when you stink you hang your hat on incremental improvements measured in sheer wins and losses, but once you are a playoff team and get there repeatedly win-loss totals mean fuck all, it all comes down to what you do with it. I'd be much happier to see this team win 55 games and get to the conference semis than I would be to see a 60+ win season flushed down the drain in a first round exit.

I hope people don't obsess too much over the regular season record (of course I know that's a fool's hope) and can keep things in proper perspective -- it's all about seeding and homecourt from here on out, if that means winning fifty games and that gets the job done who cares.

+1

The Blazers won't be sneaking up on anybody this season. If we win enough games to land HCA, that is a successful regular season. The real measure will be how we do in the play-offs.

 

[hasoos]

Didn't we have a win prediction thread last year? That would be fun to revisit.

 

[THE HCP]

Somebody check and see how many wins we averaged during our really good runs in the early 90's and 2000's.

 

[THE HCP]

Didn't we have a win prediction thread last year? That would be fun to revisit.

I said 54 last season

 

[ABM]

...........than I would be to see a 60+ win season flushed down the drain in a first round exit.

Off the top of my head, the closest Blazer example of that might be that '90/'91 team...although, they made it to the WCF. If there were any of those early 90's teams that fell (nose-dived) short of perceived expectations, I would say it might very well be that one.

 

[STOMP]

+1

The Blazers won't be sneaking up on anybody this season. If we win enough games to land HCA, that is a successful regular season. The real measure will be how we do in the play-offs.

I'm recalling Kobe claiming he was circling last seasons games in Portland on his calendar...

As teams were jockeying for playoff position the 2nd half of last season Portland was leading the league in point differential/blowouts. The Blazers weren't sneaking up on teams so much as they were crushing them.

STOMP

 

[maxiep]

Over. I'm enjoying some Kool-Aid with my coffee this morning. If you can't be optimistic about your team, what's the point of being a fan?

 

[MAS RipCity]

my early guess this season is 60

 

[Nikolokolus]

Off the top of my head, the closest Blazer example of that might be that '90/'91 team...although, they made it to the WCF. If there were any of those early 90's teams that fell (nose-dived) short of perceived expectations, I would say it might very well be that one.

That certainly was disappointing, but getting to and losing in the conference finals can hardly be called a failure (or maybe it can?). The most prominent example I can think of is the Mavericks team that got bounced by the Warriors a couple of years back in the first round; if the Blazers win 60+ and fall to a 7th or 8th seed this year then you have to look at that as a massive step back or an underachievement.

 

[THE HCP]

2008-09 Portland 54 28 .659 2nd Northwest Division 2 4 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
2007-08 Portland 41 41 .500 3rd Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2006-07 Portland 32 50 .390 3rd Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2005-06 Portland 21 61 .256 5th Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2004-05 Portland 27 55 .329 4th Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2003-04 Portland 41 41 .500 3rd Pacific Division - - - DNQ
2002-03 Portland 50 32 .610 2nd Pacific Division 3 4 .429 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
2001-02 Portland 49 33 .598 3rd Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
2000-01 Portland 50 32 .610 4th Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1999-00 Portland 59 23 .720 2nd Pacific Division 10 6 .625 Lost West Conf Finals
1998-99 * Portland 35 15 .700 1st Pacific Division 7 6 .538 Lost West Conf Finals
1997-98 Portland 46 36 .561 4th Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1996-97 Portland 49 33 .598 3rd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1995-96 Portland 44 38 .537 3rd Pacific Division 2 3 .400 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1994-95 Portland 44 38 .537 4th Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1993-94 Portland 47 35 .573 4th Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1992-93 Portland 51 31 .622 3rd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1991-92 Portland 57 25 .695 1st Pacific Division 13 8 .619 Lost NBA Finals
1990-91 Portland 63 19 .768 1st Pacific Division 9 7 .563 Lost West Conf Finals
1989-90 Portland 59 23 .720 2nd Pacific Division 12 9 .571 Lost NBA Finals
1988-89 Portland 39 43 .476 5th Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1987-88 Portland 53 29 .646 2nd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1986-87 Portland 49 33 .598 2nd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1985-86 Portland 40 42 .488 2nd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1984-85 Portland 42 40 .512 2nd Pacific Division 4 5 .444 Lost West Conf Semis
1983-84 Portland 48 34 .585 2nd Pacific Division 2 3 .400 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1982-83 Portland 46 36 .561 4th Pacific Division 3 4 .429 Lost West Conf Semis
1981-82 Portland 42 40 .512 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1980-81 Portland 45 37 .549 3rd Pacific Division 1 2 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1979-80 Portland 38 44 .463 4th Pacific Division 1 2 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1978-79 Portland 45 37 .549 4th Pacific Division 1 2 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1977-78 Portland 58 24 .707 1st Pacific Division 2 4 .333 Lost West Conf Semis
1976-77 Portland 49 33 .598 2nd Pacific Division 14 5 .737 Won NBA Finals
1975-76 Portland 37 45 .451 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1974-75 Portland 38 44 .463 3rd Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1973-74 Portland 27 55 .329 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1972-73 Portland 21 61 .256 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1971-72 Portland 18 64 .220 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1970-71 Portland 29 53 .35

 

[THE HCP]

Looks like there are some...... I won't say unrealistic....... I'll just say lofty expectations around here. Don't set yourself up for disappointment.

 

[Minstrel]

+1

The Blazers won't be sneaking up on anybody this season. If we win enough games to land HCA, that is a successful regular season. The real measure will be how we do in the play-offs.

It's not binary...HCA or no HCA. More wins and a higher seed mean HCA for more rounds. I'd rather Portland got HCA in more rounds than just the first one. That will increase the chances of greater post-season success.

 

[oldmangrouch]

It's not binary...HCA or no HCA. More wins and a higher seed mean HCA for more rounds. I'd rather Portland got HCA in more rounds than just the first one. That will increase the chances of greater post-season success.

I understand, but I am standing by my prediction that LA and SA will claim the top 2 seeds, and that the competiton for the 3 and 4 spots will be very close. I won't be the least surprised if the 3-4-5 slots aren't determined until the last day of the season.

 

[Minstrel]

I understand, but I am standing by my prediction that LA and SA will claim the top 2 seeds, and that the competiton for the 3 and 4 spots will be very close. I won't be the least surprised if the 3-4-5 slots aren't determined until the last day of the season.

San Antonio is probably #2 if fully healthy, but they have major health issues with Jefferson, Ginobili and, to some extent, Duncan. While it's a good bet they'll be the #2 seed, there's a significant chance that they'll suffer some missed games from key players and provide an opportunity for other teams to get the #2 seed.

I was simply responding to your suggestion that the regular season doesn't really matter beyond "getting HCA." There are levels of home court advantage. Unless you are the type of team that can cruise to the #1 seed without any real competition, the regular season matters a lot in terms of post-season success. Getting the #2 seed instead of the #3 seed could be the difference between reaching the WCF or not. Getting the #3 seed instead of the #4 seed could mean something similar.

 

[mgb]

2008-09 Portland 54 28 .659 2nd Northwest Division 2 4 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
2007-08 Portland 41 41 .500 3rd Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2006-07 Portland 32 50 .390 3rd Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2005-06 Portland 21 61 .256 5th Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2004-05 Portland 27 55 .329 4th Northwest Division - - - DNQ
2003-04 Portland 41 41 .500 3rd Pacific Division - - - DNQ
2002-03 Portland 50 32 .610 2nd Pacific Division 3 4 .429 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
2001-02 Portland 49 33 .598 3rd Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
2000-01 Portland 50 32 .610 4th Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1999-00 Portland 59 23 .720 2nd Pacific Division 10 6 .625 Lost West Conf Finals
1998-99 * Portland 35 15 .700 1st Pacific Division 7 6 .538 Lost West Conf Finals
1997-98 Portland 46 36 .561 4th Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1996-97 Portland 49 33 .598 3rd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1995-96 Portland 44 38 .537 3rd Pacific Division 2 3 .400 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1994-95 Portland 44 38 .537 4th Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1993-94 Portland 47 35 .573 4th Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1992-93 Portland 51 31 .622 3rd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1991-92 Portland 57 25 .695 1st Pacific Division 13 8 .619 Lost NBA Finals
1990-91 Portland 63 19 .768 1st Pacific Division 9 7 .563 Lost West Conf Finals
1989-90 Portland 59 23 .720 2nd Pacific Division 12 9 .571 Lost NBA Finals
1988-89 Portland 39 43 .476 5th Pacific Division 0 3 .000 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1987-88 Portland 53 29 .646 2nd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1986-87 Portland 49 33 .598 2nd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1985-86 Portland 40 42 .488 2nd Pacific Division 1 3 .250 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1984-85 Portland 42 40 .512 2nd Pacific Division 4 5 .444 Lost West Conf Semis
1983-84 Portland 48 34 .585 2nd Pacific Division 2 3 .400 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1982-83 Portland 46 36 .561 4th Pacific Division 3 4 .429 Lost West Conf Semis
1981-82 Portland 42 40 .512 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1980-81 Portland 45 37 .549 3rd Pacific Division 1 2 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1979-80 Portland 38 44 .463 4th Pacific Division 1 2 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1978-79 Portland 45 37 .549 4th Pacific Division 1 2 .333 Lost West Conf 1st Rd
1977-78 Portland 58 24 .707 1st Pacific Division 2 4 .333 Lost West Conf Semis
1976-77 Portland 49 33 .598 2nd Pacific Division 14 5 .737 Won NBA Finals
1975-76 Portland 37 45 .451 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1974-75 Portland 38 44 .463 3rd Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1973-74 Portland 27 55 .329 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1972-73 Portland 21 61 .256 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1971-72 Portland 18 64 .220 5th Pacific Division - - - DNQ
1970-71 Portland 29 53 .35

So the sweet spot is 49 wins!

 

[mgb]

Didn't we have a win prediction thread last year? That would be fun to revisit.

I predicted 52 wins and we won 54. I'm predicting 56 this year so we should win 58.

 

[leapinleaner]

i am going with 61

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

62 wins. But again. Nate controls what this team does next year. He really does.

 

[THE HCP]

I'll take 49 and a championship!

 

[Samuel]

I think this is the year of the hiccup; as many games as Portland blew last year, they also won a load of close games that could have gone either way. In the first half of this next season they may struggle adjusting to Andre Miller on the team. Roy and Aldridge have had free reign on the ball and the title of 'the man' in the locker room. Miller's presence will affect that... not necessarily in a bad way, but will affect it.

I predict an early rough-going despite the easy schedule, a middling middle and a fiery stretch run. 54 wins. first round matchup could go either way.

Other items to consider: the have nots have improved themselves (OKC Sonics, Clippers) while the Nuggets and the Mavericks will both be better (this could be the Mavs' last run).

 

[Minstrel]

I think this is the year of the hiccup; as many games as Portland blew last year, they also won a load of close games that could have gone either way.

Their point differential was consistent with more wins than they actually got, which suggests that they weren't actually lucky with close games.

while the Nuggets and the Mavericks will both be better (this could be the Mavs' last run).

Why will the Nuggets be better? They lost Kleiza and Jones, didn't add anyone of consequence and Billups will be older. How did they improve over last year?