Palin Honeymoon Period Officially Over

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National - Gallup Tracking - Obama +2
National - Rasmussen - McCain +1
National - Hotline - Obama +3
National - Reuters/Zogby - Obama +2
National - Ipsos - Tie
National - Research 2000 - Obama +4
Florida - CNN/Time - Tie
Ohio - CNN/Time - Obama +2
North Carolina - CNN/Time - McCain +1
Virginia - Public Policy Polling - Obama +2
Wisconsin - CNN/Time - Obama +3
Indiana - CNN/Time - Obama +6
Colorado - ARG - McCain +2
Louisiana - ARG - McCain +7
Missouri - ARG - McCain +5
Montana - ARG - McCain +2
Nevada - ARG - McCain +3
New Mexico - ARG - Obama +7
West Virginia - ARG - McCain +4
Ohio - ARG - McCain +6
Ohio - Public Policy Polling - McCain +4
Colorado - Fox News - McCain +2
Ohio - Fox News - McCain +3
Florida - Fox News - McCain +5
Virginia - Fox News - Tie
Virginia - Survey USA - Obama +4

Obama has recovered nationally, and is leading in the popular vote again, based on recent daily trackers. Montana and North Carolina had a massive shift after the VP announcement, and seems to have bounced back after the honeymoon. Ohio is a genuine toss up again. Florida is inching closer, but still not a genuine toss up, and definitely in the leans McCain column. New Mexico seems to be safe Obama now, as demonstrated by MSNBC moving it into their Obama category last week. Missouri/Indiana remain in that fringe swing state area. They mgiht become swing states as the election gets closer, maybe not. In light of another big hurricane, it seems Lousiana has moved more towards Obama. Wisconsin has tightened up a bit, but this is just McCain gaining among evangelicals there. Obama is a lock for Wisconsin, he is still polling over 50%, and when a guy consistently polls over 50% like that, he's gonna win the state. Colorado is still a swing state, but it seems to be favoring McCain. Palin likely played well there...Alaska = Nature and so does Colorado. Virginia seems to be in the lean Obama category. That has to make Obama very happy. Then West Virginia is the other one that is tightening up a lot. A June Rasmussen poll previously showed it tightening up to 8 points after the primaries concluded, and a Blankership poll earlier in September, in the midst of Mccain's convention bounce, showed it at +5. I think a few things are playing into West Virginia. First, the recent economic downturn is making them look Democrat. They loved Bill Clinton, and they probably realize Obama is going to bring them back the closest to what Clinton brought. Second, so many of the women there seemed to be Hillary drones. I think they genuinely took Hillary's message that if they voted for her, they have a lot more in common with Obama than McCain. They probably are Hillary-nazi's, rather then straight up feminazi's there, so they might not want to see Palin become the first woman in the oval office over Hillary. Third, there is probably some overspill effect from Virginia going on. West Virginia is a state that should go Democrat, but didn't for Gore/Kerry, and Obama still has the race problem to overcome, but he is making leaps and bounds there, and might make this one really close on election day, because seem to really not like the Palin pick.
 
I saw some of these polls mentioned on dailykos, so I don't believe them.
 
Survey USA confirms the New Mexico poll by ARG. Obama up +8 in the new SurveyUSA poll there.

This is pretty important I think, because it makes first off, Nevada and West Virginia enough to tilt the election Obama's way (269 EV's, which then would be decided in Obama's favor in Congress). Second, it makes winning Colorado = winning election. If Obama somehow manages to lose New Hampshire (which looks unlikey at this point), Obama wins the election (269 with Colorado, and 263 with Virginia).
 
Obama also up 5 in both the registered voter and likely voter national poll in the new CBS/Times poll.

McCain's convention bounce didn't erode away, a bubble burst. I would like to know what the reason for this is. It seems like Palin's interview with ABC might be the reason for this, because I don't believe that the recent financial crisis stuff and McCain's fundamentals are strong gaffe are factoring into the daily trackers yet. If voters are responding negatively, as recent polls may be the result of, to Palin's ABC Interview, it is a good sign, as voters are not giving her benefit of the doubt anymore, like when she first was named.
 
I think the main reason is the economy, and people blame Republicans.
 
A note on that CNN Florida poll where it says Tie above. I got my numbers from realclearpoltics earlier, which was the 2 person numbers. With Third Party Candidates involved, Obama is leading by +4. Nader seems to be taking a big chunk away from McCain.
 
I'm not so sure it's going go every completely die down. The networks talk about her more than anything else. I'm not sure that will ever end. I do think the fact that Obama has regained the lead in a lot of polls before the first debate is surprising but you know this race is so close that I don't think either republicans or democrats should put much into the polling right now.

Wait until the debates and then we'll get an idea of how this race is starting to really take shape.
 
Sarah Palin pretty much said today: Barack Obama cannot lead our nation towards energy independence because he has not fought in a war.

It's quite easy to see why she has the lowest favorability of the 4 candidates. I think she might be equally or more so responsible for McCain falling behind than the Wall Street Crisis.

I don't think after her interview on ABC where she came off not knowing anything, that the American public is going to take her attacks at face value anymore, or believe something that comes out of her mouth before fact checking it.
 
It is true, Obama's putting McCain in his place from most of the polls I regularly follow on RCP. People are realizing how sexist that VP pick was.

Additionally, O's here tonight in Coral Gables at this fancy Hotel I've been at a few times (The Biltmore). :]
 
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Sarah Palin pretty much said today: Barack Obama cannot lead our nation towards energy independence because he has not fought in a war.

It's quite easy to see why she has the lowest favorability of the 4 candidates. I think she might be equally or more so responsible for McCain falling behind than the Wall Street Crisis.

I don't think after her interview on ABC where she came off not knowing anything, that the American public is going to take her attacks at face value anymore, or believe something that comes out of her mouth before fact checking it.

Or maybe it's because the Democrats and the media launched a smear campaign against her as soon as she was named VP.
 
Hillary launched a devastating smear campaign which dragged O through the mud. He's still on top though.
 
Or maybe it's because the Democrats and the media launched a smear campaign against her as soon as she was named VP.

What smear campaign?

There is a different between distorting records, calling a person a muslim, etc and depicting a person for who they are.

That is all I've seen the Democrats do. Show Palin for who she is.

The only possible smear campaign would be the whether Palin's youngest child isn't hers thing, and that was just a few people on DailyKos, which aren't part of the Democratic establishment. Guys like Olbermann, Maddow, didn't jump on her for that, or even jump on her for when her daughter actually was pregnant.
 
Keith Olbermann is donating $100 to the Alaska Special Olympics every time that Sarah Palin lies.

He had to cut a $3,700 check tonight (did it on air).

And now he's giving out to one viewer a week, "Aunt Sarah's Moose Stew in a Can" for who finds the most lies I believe.

This is absolutely hilarious.
 
What smear campaign?

There is a different between distorting records, calling a person a muslim, etc and depicting a person for who they are.

That is all I've seen the Democrats do. Show Palin for who she is.

The only possible smear campaign would be the whether Palin's youngest child isn't hers thing, and that was just a few people on DailyKos, which aren't part of the Democratic establishment. Guys like Olbermann, Maddow, didn't jump on her for that, or even jump on her for when her daughter actually was pregnant.

Yeah, never mind sending two dozen attorneys over to Alaska to dig dirt on her. Never mind the bullshit about the Bridge to Nowhere, never mind the crap about the state trooper firing, her church. It's all who she really is, a right wing nut job who's extreme on abortion and wants Alaska to secede from the United States.

DailyKos not being a part of the Democratic establishment is laughable, as is citing Keith Olbermann in your posts. Sites like DailyKos and MoveOn.org have got the Democratic party by balls and have had them for several years now.
 
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How come this is the first time I'm hearing this? Why was this not all over the news?

Trooper admits he Tasered Palin nephew

From correspondents in Anchorage

September 11, 2008 12:01am
Article from: The Courier-Mail

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* Mike Wooten used a Taser on Sarah Palin's nephew
* But claims he was no danger to her family
* Troopergate not the only cloud on Palin's horizon

ALASKAN State Trooper Mike Wooten admitted yesterday he had used a Taser stun gun on Sarah Palin's nephew, his stepson, but claimed he was no danger to her family.

Mr Wooten - who is Mrs Palin's former brother-in-law - is at the heart of a legislative investigation into whether the Republican vice-presidential nominee abused her power as Alaska Governor.

The state legislature is investigating whether she fired former public safety commissioner Walt Monegan because he would not dismiss Mr Wooten, who went through a messy divorce from Mrs Palin's sister, Molly.

The 36-year-old policeman said he did not drink in his patrol car as the Palin family had alleged in a 2005 complaint before Mrs Palin was elected Governor.

He is clearly uncomfortable about becoming a national figure in the Troopergate investigation which shot into the spotlight last week when Republican presidential candidate John McCain selected Mrs Palin as his running mate.

Mr Wooten said yesterday he had heard rumblings at work in the past few years that the Palin Administration had been trying to get him off the force.

"I heard the rumour mill and hearsay that there was, I guess, pressure being applied to come after my position as a trooper," he said.

"But I didn't know to the extent to what's being sent out to the media now."

Mrs Palin has said she did not fire Mr Monegan because of the Wooten affair. However, last month she disclosed contact between members of her Administration and the State Troopers, questioning Mr Wooten's employment.

Speaking cautiously and in measured tones, Mr Wooten said yesterday he refuses to "throw stones" at the Palin family or his ex-wife.

He also said he had turned down cash offers, well into the tens of thousands of dollars, from tabloid newspapers for interviews.

"I'm not going to tell them a story they want. I'm going to tell the truth," he said.

Mrs Palin has become the darling of the Republicans because of her fresh, straight-shooting approach. She emerged unscathed from the shock disclosure that her 17-year-old unwed daughter was five months' pregnant.

But Troopergate is not the only cloud on her horizon.

The Washington Post yesterday reported Mrs Palin billed Alaska's taxpayers a daily travel allowance for 312 nights when she was actually in her Wasilla home during her first 19 months as Governor.

State officials told the Post the claim of nearly $US17,000 was allowable because her "duty station" was the state capital of Juneau, and she was at her Wasilla home more than 900km away. The paper also said she billed $US43,490 for travel by her husband and children.

The so-called Palin-effect, as the US media has dubbed it, has not only boosted Senator McCain's standing in the opinion polls, but also at his campaign rallies where he is attracting between 5000 and 10,000 supporters.

Before Mrs Palin joined his presidential ticket, Senator McCain usually spoke to about 1000 people.

Additional reporting by Stefanie Balogh.
Link

Keith forgot that one. But he seems to forget a lot of things. Intentionally most of the time.
 
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I don't know, I just look and listen to Sarah Palin and the only thing I can think of is: what, they couldn't find a Hooter's girl?
 
It must be tough being a smart and good looking woman, because people have a hard time looking past her hooters.
 
Honeymoon is over! This is in Florida yesterday.

capt.a0f650539369445f8879ba35a88aafa4.mccain_2008_mnss101.jpg


http://news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080921/NEWS0107/80921022

Palin draws crowd of 60,000 in The Villages

By Bill Cotterell • news-press.com capital bureau • September 21, 2008


THE VILLAGES -- Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin told wildly cheering, flag-waving, chanting supporters that John McCain is "the only great man in this race" and promised Sunday he will fix the nation's economy if voters give the GOP four more years in the White House.

"He won't say this, so I'll say it for him," the Alaska governor said in an almost confidential tone at the close of her first Florida stump speech. "There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you. John McCain wore the uniform of his country for 22 years -- talk about tough."

The Villages, a vast, upscale planned community north of Orlando, has about 70,000 mostly adult residents -- many of them military retirees -- who vote reliably Republican in statewide races. Tens of thousands inched along roads into the picturesque town square of the complex, where they stood in sweltering heat for about four hours as local GOP officials and a country band revved up the crowd.

"Sa-Rah! Sa-Rah!" they chanted at every mention of her name, applauding loudly and waiving tiny American flags that were distributed -- along with free water bottles -- by local volunteers. The fire chief estimated the crowd at 60,000.

Admiring throngs mobbed the Palin family's arrival and departure, snapping souvenir pictures. Autograph seekers thrust campaign signs, caps with the McCain-Palin logo and copies of magazines with her face on their covers, and the Palins responded warmly.

Palin, her husband and three of their children arrived in Orlando but spent a family day at Disney World, she said as she introduced her entourage to the enthusiastic crowd. She joked about similarities and differences of the two states at opposite corners of America, but was all business when she focused on the need for a large voter turnout in a hotly contested state with 27 electoral votes.

Recent polls have given the McCain-Palin ticket a single-digit edge but Florida is clearly up for grabs. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., campaigned from Jacksonville to Miami late last week and the Democrats have mobilized a massive volunteer effort statewide. McCain, who led the Jan. 29 state primary with a big boost from popular Gov. Charlie Crist, has strong support in the vital I-4 corridor and across North Florida, where conservative southerners tend to register as Democrats but vote Republican in statewide races.

In a theme Palin would pound home, GOP Chairman Jim Greer Greer said Obama and his running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, have records of voting for higher taxes and have said on the campaign trail that they would increase regulation of financial markets.

"John MCain and I are going to take our case for reform to every voter in every background and every party, or no party at all," said Palin. "We're going to Washington to shake things up."

She said "John McCain warned Congress that we needed to do something before these problems became a crisis," but that Washington -- including Obama and Biden -- did not act for months as financial giants teetered and toppled.

"Americans are caught in kind of a perfect storm between high taxes, high gas prices, greed on Wall Street and a shortage of courage in Washington," she said. "But we need new leadership in Washington -- we need serious reform on Wall Street."

Palin, whose son shipped out for Iraq this month, made a point of asking veterans and military members in the crowd to raise their hands for a round of applause.

Then she recalled that McCain took an early, unpopular stance in support of the Iraq troop surge, a policy shift now widely credited with stabilizing Iraq. "That's the kind of man I want as commander in chief," she shouted, as applause and whoops rose in the town square. "John McCain is the only great man in this race."
 
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/21/MNPP130KA7.DTL&feed=rss.news

Palin energizes California Republicans


Joe Garofoli, Chronicle Staff Writer
Monday, September 22, 2008

(09-21) 16:53 PDT --

Post-convention swing state polls are tipping toward Sen. John McCain, the TV pundits are waxing about "The Palin Factor," and Sen. Barack Obama's California supporters are freaking out about a race Democrats were uncommonly confident about only a month ago.

Conversely, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's addition to the GOP ticket jolted Northern California Republicans out of what one described as their "Underground Railroad" existence in one of the nation's most liberal regions. Ever since her speech to the Republican National Convention on Sept. 3, party officials say volunteers have been contacting California GOP offices in numbers unseen since Ronald Reagan was on the ballot for the White House.

Despite generating all this fear and enthusiasm, the Palin Factor hasn't changed the race in California. Obama beats McCain 52 percent to 36 percent in a Field Poll released last week, and neither campaign is broadcasting ads in the state's expensive television markets. On Thursday, Palin canceled her rally and fundraising visit to the state planned for this week.

So Californians seeking to get involved in either campaign have options: pick up the phone, get on a plane or hop in a car and contact a voter in a swing state that's still in play. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado are the closest swing states. Most of the Great Lakes states are still up for grabs, and Florida always beckons.

Lizzy Gore was tired of preaching to the blue choir when she was living in Redwood City during the primaries this year and found the same unanimity when she moved to Rhode Island three months ago. So last week, she began an online campaign at thepoint.com where she started raising money for a newspaper ad that would argue that Palin would not be a good vice president. If the online effort raises $21,285, she will buy and place the ad in the Cincinnati Enquirer in swing state Ohio.

"So we're preaching to swing voters," Gore said. "That's the plan, anyway, to create an emotionally resonant message that convinces those folks that Sarah Palin is not who they think she is."

On the California section of Obama's Web site, www.baracko bama.com, there is an appeal for the "Drive for Change" program that reads: "As an Obama supporter in California, you can make a huge impact by traveling to Nevada to talk with voters about why Barack Obama and Joe Biden will bring the change we need." The California Young Democrats are organizing weekly road trips across the border, too.

Nationally, major players are starting to readjust their plans to the shifting electoral map. Last week, the liberal online giant MoveOn.org announced it would spend $5 million to $7 million on television advertising - double the amount the 4.2 million-member organization had expected to spend, executive director Eli Pariser said.

"In August, we were at half of 2004 in terms of energy," Pariser said. Four years ago, the organization raised $6.8 million in September; it already has raised $5 million this month. "In the last three weeks, we've seen this enormous surge in energy, driven both by, 'Oh, there's a real race here,' and also by, frankly, the Palin pick.

"That scared a lot of our members and got them off their chairs," Pariser said.

MoveOn's advertising will be targeted at 22 states - swing states, plus what Pariser referred to as "a wish list" of traditionally red states where Obama might be competitive. Its more immediate goal is to register 500,000 under-30 voters before the Oct. 6 deadline in some states.

But Republicans aren't giving up on California. California Republican Party chief operating officer Bill Christiansen said some private polls put the two candidates within five points of each other, and the McCain campaign is staffing 50 offices throughout the state. Four years ago, the Bush-Cheney campaign barely had a presence in California, and spent little money. "But we are fully funded this time," Christiansen said, declining to give a figure.

The state GOP is making 125,000 voter contacts every weekend, "which blows the doors off of what we were doing four years ago," said Christiansen. "Sarah Palin has put a shot of energy into this race."

Last week, the McCain campaign e-mailed supporters to say it was "looking for volunteers who are willing to spend the final 10 days of the campaign helping in a nearby state." But at the San Mateo County branch of the McCain campaign, 300 people turned out last week for its volunteer kickoff event; the turnout was goosed by Palin, organizers said. Now the office is welcoming first-timer campaigners like Phil Lehman, a 63-year-old Foster City resident.

His reason for volunteering: "Sarah."

"There's a realness to her, a believability," Lehman said. "I think she's going to eat Joe Biden's lunch at the (vice presidential) debate."

It will largely be up to volunteers like Lehman to spread the word in California and beyond. From Sept. 6-13, broadcast television viewers in Grand Rapids, Mich., saw 1,120 TV ads from either the Obama or McCain campaigns, according to the nonpartisan Wisconsin Advertising Project. That's 1,120 more than viewers in San Francisco saw.

Information on volunteering


Resources for McCain and Obama campaign volunteers:
Sen. John McCain

-- The McCain campaign is seeking volunteers to spend the final 10 days of the campaign working in a swing state. For more information: Volunteer5@JohnMcCain.com.
-- McCain supporters can visit www.peerdreams.com, whichhas Republican and Democrat pages for those who want to give or receive money for election travel.
-- For information on how to find the closest McCain/California GOP office: www.cagop.org.
Sen. Barack Obama

-- The California section of the Obama campaign's Web site lists activities for residents to travel outside the state: links.sfgate.com/ZEWS.
-- The California Young Democrats are organizing weekly road trips to Nevada. For more information: www.youngdems.org or e-mail Heather Brown, heather@youngdems.org.
-- For information on sponsoring or volunteering to campaign for Obama-Biden in swing states, visit www.travelforchange.org and www.obamatravel.org.

-- For information about Lizzy Gore's effort to raise money to run an anti-Gov. Sarah Palin ad in the Cincinnati Enquirer: links.sfgate.com/ZEWT.
-- For information on how to find the closest Obama/California Democratic Party office: links.sfgate.com/ZEWU.


E-mail Joe Garofoli at jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/22/MNPP130KA7.DTL
This article appeared on page A - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle
 
It must be tough being a smart and good looking woman, because people have a hard time looking past her hooters.

see, I just don't see any evidence that she is smart. She is good at public speaking--at least good at reading in public--but that is NOT the same thing.
 
see, I just don't see any evidence that she is smart. She is good at public speaking--at least good at reading in public--but that is NOT the same thing.

Define "Not Smart"
 
see, I just don't see any evidence that she is smart. She is good at public speaking--at least good at reading in public--but that is NOT the same thing.

I haven't seen any evidence that she is good looking either. I'm not saying she's ugly, but just keeping it within politics, she doesn't have the beauty of someone like Chelsea Clinton, who is on a completely different level than Palin. She kind of looks like a pitbull with lipstick on.
 
I haven't seen any evidence that she is good looking either. I'm not saying she's ugly, but just keeping it within politics, she doesn't have the beauty of someone like Chelsea Clinton, who is on a completely different level than Palin. She kind of looks like a pitbull with lipstick on.

she's just a prop.
 
I haven't seen any evidence that she is good looking either. I'm not saying she's ugly, but just keeping it within politics, she doesn't have the beauty of someone like Chelsea Clinton, who is on a completely different level than Palin. She kind of looks like a pitbull with lipstick on.

I've never seen any evidence that Chelsea Clinton is remotely good looking.

"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno."-John McCain
 

Exclusive: McCain closes huge gap on key question for women
By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 9/22/08 5:15 AM EDT
Text Size:

Since picking Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain has obliterated what had been a 34-percentage-point deficit in a poll of likely women voters on the question of which candidate has a “better understanding of women and what is important” to them.

The two are now effectively tied, with McCain's 44 to 42 percentage lead within the margin of error of the most recent poll conducted by pollsters Kellyanne Conway and Celinda Lake for Lifetime Television. In Lifetime's July poll, women preferred Barack Obama on the same question by nearly three-to-one— 52 to 18 percent.

In this latest poll, conducted Sept. 11-15, age remained a key determinant in response to the question about women’s concerns. Young women, ages 18-34, chose the Obama/Biden ticket as more empathetic to their needs, while women aged 35-64 went for McCain/Palin. Unlike black and Hispanic women, White women saw McCain and Palin as most understanding of their concerns.

About one in four women who supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primaries now said McCain and Palin have a better grasp of women’s needs than Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden.

The Lifetime poll reveals a diversity of women’s views on several issues, with many of those differences related to a respondent’s race, party identity, marital status and generation.

However, those demographic differences faded when it came to the Democrats’ strongest showing in the poll, on a question regarding the economy. The women polled favored the Obama/Biden ticket 57 to 32 percent on which candidate “will help middle class families the most.” Polling has shown all year that the economy tops voters' concerns.

The survey comes as women overall favor the Democratic ticket, 48 to 44 percent, according to the weekly summaries of Gallup polling. That marks a wider margin than Democrats enjoyed in 2004 on Election Day, but less than in 2000.

That Democratic drop-off with women since 2000, Gallup polling shows, is tied to Obama’s recent downtick in white support among women and men alike. All summer Obama had roughly similar support among white women as Al Gore did in 2000.

Gallup finds McCain now leads with white women 51 to 40 percent, a wider gap than the GOP enjoyed among white women eight years ago.

However, it appears that Obama’s message of “change” has struck a chord with women, who in the Lifetime poll gave the Obama/Biden ticket a 14-point advantage on the question, 51 to 37 percent over the McCain/Palin ticket.

Overall, women said Obama and Biden would best “reform the way Washington, D.C. does business” by 47 to 40 percent. But white women narrowly favored the McCain/Palin ticket on that count.

And, independent women gave the GOP ticket an 8-point advantage on the change issue.

When women were asked which ticket could better “win” the war in Iraq, white, Hispanic and independent women, as well as women of every age group, voiced more confidence in McCain/Palin.

But when these women were asked which candidates can most likely “end” the war in Iraq, Obama/Biden earned significantly more support. Women under age 55, Hispanic women, and independent women had more trust in the Democrats. Yet white women voiced more confidence in McCain/Palin to end the war.

Women overall did say the Republican ticket was more ready to lead, though Latinas and black women sided with Democrats. Democrats have a narrow advantage overall, 47 to 40 percent, as more capable reformers of government, though female independents and whites sided with the GOP.

The Lifetime Television/Every Woman Counts campaign poll of 534 American women likely to vote was conducted September 11 to 15, and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Link
 
I haven't seen any evidence that she is good looking either. I'm not saying she's ugly, but just keeping it within politics, she doesn't have the beauty of someone like Chelsea Clinton, who is on a completely different level than Palin. She kind of looks like a pitbull with lipstick on.

Palin is better looking than Chelsea (don't want to focus on that though).

That said, Obama now leads by an average of 2.6 points on RCP. Rasmussen has him up by 1.
 

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