Денг Гордон
Member
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2007
- Messages
- 6,039
- Likes
- 26
- Points
- 48
National - Gallup Tracking - Obama +2
National - Rasmussen - McCain +1
National - Hotline - Obama +3
National - Reuters/Zogby - Obama +2
National - Ipsos - Tie
National - Research 2000 - Obama +4
Florida - CNN/Time - Tie
Ohio - CNN/Time - Obama +2
North Carolina - CNN/Time - McCain +1
Virginia - Public Policy Polling - Obama +2
Wisconsin - CNN/Time - Obama +3
Indiana - CNN/Time - Obama +6
Colorado - ARG - McCain +2
Louisiana - ARG - McCain +7
Missouri - ARG - McCain +5
Montana - ARG - McCain +2
Nevada - ARG - McCain +3
New Mexico - ARG - Obama +7
West Virginia - ARG - McCain +4
Ohio - ARG - McCain +6
Ohio - Public Policy Polling - McCain +4
Colorado - Fox News - McCain +2
Ohio - Fox News - McCain +3
Florida - Fox News - McCain +5
Virginia - Fox News - Tie
Virginia - Survey USA - Obama +4
Obama has recovered nationally, and is leading in the popular vote again, based on recent daily trackers. Montana and North Carolina had a massive shift after the VP announcement, and seems to have bounced back after the honeymoon. Ohio is a genuine toss up again. Florida is inching closer, but still not a genuine toss up, and definitely in the leans McCain column. New Mexico seems to be safe Obama now, as demonstrated by MSNBC moving it into their Obama category last week. Missouri/Indiana remain in that fringe swing state area. They mgiht become swing states as the election gets closer, maybe not. In light of another big hurricane, it seems Lousiana has moved more towards Obama. Wisconsin has tightened up a bit, but this is just McCain gaining among evangelicals there. Obama is a lock for Wisconsin, he is still polling over 50%, and when a guy consistently polls over 50% like that, he's gonna win the state. Colorado is still a swing state, but it seems to be favoring McCain. Palin likely played well there...Alaska = Nature and so does Colorado. Virginia seems to be in the lean Obama category. That has to make Obama very happy. Then West Virginia is the other one that is tightening up a lot. A June Rasmussen poll previously showed it tightening up to 8 points after the primaries concluded, and a Blankership poll earlier in September, in the midst of Mccain's convention bounce, showed it at +5. I think a few things are playing into West Virginia. First, the recent economic downturn is making them look Democrat. They loved Bill Clinton, and they probably realize Obama is going to bring them back the closest to what Clinton brought. Second, so many of the women there seemed to be Hillary drones. I think they genuinely took Hillary's message that if they voted for her, they have a lot more in common with Obama than McCain. They probably are Hillary-nazi's, rather then straight up feminazi's there, so they might not want to see Palin become the first woman in the oval office over Hillary. Third, there is probably some overspill effect from Virginia going on. West Virginia is a state that should go Democrat, but didn't for Gore/Kerry, and Obama still has the race problem to overcome, but he is making leaps and bounds there, and might make this one really close on election day, because seem to really not like the Palin pick.
National - Rasmussen - McCain +1
National - Hotline - Obama +3
National - Reuters/Zogby - Obama +2
National - Ipsos - Tie
National - Research 2000 - Obama +4
Florida - CNN/Time - Tie
Ohio - CNN/Time - Obama +2
North Carolina - CNN/Time - McCain +1
Virginia - Public Policy Polling - Obama +2
Wisconsin - CNN/Time - Obama +3
Indiana - CNN/Time - Obama +6
Colorado - ARG - McCain +2
Louisiana - ARG - McCain +7
Missouri - ARG - McCain +5
Montana - ARG - McCain +2
Nevada - ARG - McCain +3
New Mexico - ARG - Obama +7
West Virginia - ARG - McCain +4
Ohio - ARG - McCain +6
Ohio - Public Policy Polling - McCain +4
Colorado - Fox News - McCain +2
Ohio - Fox News - McCain +3
Florida - Fox News - McCain +5
Virginia - Fox News - Tie
Virginia - Survey USA - Obama +4
Obama has recovered nationally, and is leading in the popular vote again, based on recent daily trackers. Montana and North Carolina had a massive shift after the VP announcement, and seems to have bounced back after the honeymoon. Ohio is a genuine toss up again. Florida is inching closer, but still not a genuine toss up, and definitely in the leans McCain column. New Mexico seems to be safe Obama now, as demonstrated by MSNBC moving it into their Obama category last week. Missouri/Indiana remain in that fringe swing state area. They mgiht become swing states as the election gets closer, maybe not. In light of another big hurricane, it seems Lousiana has moved more towards Obama. Wisconsin has tightened up a bit, but this is just McCain gaining among evangelicals there. Obama is a lock for Wisconsin, he is still polling over 50%, and when a guy consistently polls over 50% like that, he's gonna win the state. Colorado is still a swing state, but it seems to be favoring McCain. Palin likely played well there...Alaska = Nature and so does Colorado. Virginia seems to be in the lean Obama category. That has to make Obama very happy. Then West Virginia is the other one that is tightening up a lot. A June Rasmussen poll previously showed it tightening up to 8 points after the primaries concluded, and a Blankership poll earlier in September, in the midst of Mccain's convention bounce, showed it at +5. I think a few things are playing into West Virginia. First, the recent economic downturn is making them look Democrat. They loved Bill Clinton, and they probably realize Obama is going to bring them back the closest to what Clinton brought. Second, so many of the women there seemed to be Hillary drones. I think they genuinely took Hillary's message that if they voted for her, they have a lot more in common with Obama than McCain. They probably are Hillary-nazi's, rather then straight up feminazi's there, so they might not want to see Palin become the first woman in the oval office over Hillary. Third, there is probably some overspill effect from Virginia going on. West Virginia is a state that should go Democrat, but didn't for Gore/Kerry, and Obama still has the race problem to overcome, but he is making leaps and bounds there, and might make this one really close on election day, because seem to really not like the Palin pick.

