Palin's Favorability Numbers Eroding

[Денг Гордон]

As voters have taken a second look at Sarah Palin in venues like the Charlie Gibson interview and even Tina Fey's SNL sketch, they may not be as enamored of what they're seeing.

The Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos now has Palin's favorability-unfavorability scores at 45-44 -- just a +1. Six days ago, when the poll, launched, she was at a 52-35, a +17.

And I know that some of you don't like or don't trust this poll -- for reasons that I think are a little silly -- but there is a similar decline in her numbers in the Diageo/Hotline poll. Her favorability numbers in yesterday's Hotline poll -- today's isn't out yet -- were a 48-36, or a +12. But a week ago, on September 8, she had been at a 48-24, a +24.

Whether this ultimately has any effect on the Presidential race remains to be seen; Obama's position has improved in the national trackers, but not so much in the state polls. But it seems possible to me that John McCain's recent bounce has had more to do with John McCain -- whose speech at the convention was as underrated as Palin's was overrated -- and less to do with Palin than is generally acknowledged. And if people are voting based on the bottom of the ticket, it seems furthermore that she may yet wind up being a net liability for him.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/palins-favorability-numbers-eroding.html

 

[Denny Crane]

It's stunning that 50%+ of DailyKOS hatemongers like her.

 

[Денг Гордон]

It's stunning that 50%+ of DailyKOS hatemongers like her.

It's not a poll of DailyKos. It's a poll done by Research 2000, who are using DailyKos to publicize their poll.

It'd be interesting to see how they are doing their daily trackers. Right now, Hotline/Research 2000 both have Obama with a 4 point lead, and Rasmussen and Gallup have a 1 point McCain lead.

It looks like, due to the Reasearch 2000 poll, where Obama is gaining a lot of gusto is among black voters. Other polls have him around 87-88%. The Research 2000 poll has Obama having around 94% of the black vote, which seems most likely. Obama's improvement among black voters has given him about a 1 point net bounce. It looks like Obama has improved about 7% among Latinos, while McCain has dropped 3% there. That gives him about a .8 bounce. So that is 1.8 of a 3-4 point bounce. Although that is using last election numbers for Latinos/AA's. Depending on what they are using as the % of electorate for AA's and Hispanics (since it is going to increase), it is easy to see where such a bounce could come from.

 

[Denny Crane]

It's stunning that 50%+ of DailyKOS hatemongers like her.

 

[Real]

It's not a poll of DailyKos. It's a poll done by Research 2000, who are using DailyKos to publicize their poll.

So they're in business together.

How does this poll have any credibility again?

 

[huevonkiller]

Rasmussen has McCain down to 1% too. ^_^

 

[Денг Гордон]

So they're in business together.

How does this poll have any credibility again?

Because they are an independent research company. They have credibility from past performance.

They're one of the most reliable pollsters.

 

[Real]

Because they are an independent research company. They have credibility from past performance.

They're one of the most reliable pollsters.

That doesn't really assure me that this poll is fair if they're doing business with a no-credibility hate site to promote it.

 

[Денг Гордон]

That doesn't really assure me that this poll is fair if they're doing business with a no-credibility hate site to promote it.

Okay Bill O'Reilly.

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[Denny Crane]

<tt>Look at all the bad press she's getting. They're doing their damnest to drive down her approval ratings.

Name appearances on ABCNEWS.COM 'Blotter from Brian Ross and Investigate Team':

Palin: 24
McCain: 2
Biden: 1
Obama: 0 </tt>

 

[Real]

Okay Bill O'Reilly.

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If I can't trust them to recognize DailyKos as an illegitimate website full of hate and immaturity, then why should I trust them period?

I'm not going to say she's supposed to have a +20 faovrability, but that poll is not trustworthy in my view.

 

[Денг Гордон]

So DailyKos, a successful website with monetary resources, pays Research 2000, a research company that has been around for awhile, and has a proven track record, and looks out for their business, that discredits them as a pollster? Even though they have a proven track record?

Should we discredit Rasmussen for doing business from partisan Fox News?

 

[AEM]

DailyKos may be successful, but then so is TMZ...

 

[Real]

So DailyKos, a successful website with monetary resources, pays Research 2000, a research company that has been around for awhile, and has a proven track record, and looks out for their business, that discredits them as a pollster? Even though they have a proven track record?

Should we discredit Rasmussen for doing business from partisan Fox News?

If you want to discredit a Rasmussen from doing business with Fox News, then you'd have to discredit anyone that does business with CBS, NBC, MSNBC, the New York Times or any other biased news outlet.

Fox News and DailyKos are not the same type of organization.

 

[huevonkiller]

I have yet to see how this poll is more inaccurate than others.

 

[AEM]

How come there's no mention of the latest poll on the Research 2000 website?

 

[Денг Гордон]

How come there's no mention of the latest poll on the Research 2000 website?

I'd imagine that DailyKos paid for exclusive rights to the poll.

 

[Real]

I'd imagine that DailyKos paid for exclusive rights to the poll.

I will give you this. Research 2000 is by your statement an accurate (usually) polling.

I don't trust any poll however, with DailyKos sponsoring it, or having its name for whatever reason.

That goes for if it were Rasmussen, Gallup, or any other organization.