Pelicans pick watch

[oldmangrouch]

Pelicans 2
Blazers 11
Lakers 1.
That’s worst case

Or as Silver calls it, the predetermined outcome.

 

[TBpup]

Yeah after looking at it that would be:
Pelicans 2
Blazers11
Pelicans 1

The Lakers pick goes to the Grizzlies this year.

 

[blazerfan11]

If I understand correctly, the odds are no different between 1st. 2nd, 3rd & 4th so we only need 4th to get maximum odds.

Yes. However, if a team or teams below the bottom 4 wins the lottery and gets a top 4 pick, everyone else moves down one slot, so there definitely can be a difference between finishing at 3rd worst or 4th worst.
It is a few scenarios away from best-case to end up with the 3rd worst record and get the 4th pick. But better than having the 5th pick.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The Lakers pick goes to the Grizzlies this year.

Whoa, whoa...wait one minute! Are you saying it is possible to trade for a 1st rd pick that isn't smothered in conditions that ruin its value?

 

[blazerkor]

The Lakers pick goes to the Grizzlies this year.

I thought it went to the Pelicans 1-10 and the Grizzlies 11-30 and if it doesn't convey to the Grizzlies the Pelicans convey two second rounders.
The verbiage in this one can be a little confusing but it's there:
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
You can also just hover over the place where Memphis is getting the 12th pick on this mock draft and it explains it:
https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

 

[blazerkor]

Whoa, whoa...wait one minute! Are you saying it is possible to trade for a 1st rd pick that isn't smothered in conditions that ruin its value?

This one is smothered in conditions. If it lands 1-10 then it conveys to the Pelicans, if it lands 11-30 then it conveys to the Grizzlies.

 

[blazerfan11]

There is an odds difference between being 3rd worst and 4th worst.

 

[blazerfan11]

In the draft lottery, the top 4 picks are all lottery winners. So being the team with the 3rd worst win/loss record only gives you a better chance to be one of the four lottery winners.
Last year, the order of the lottery winners (designated by their pre-lottery odds, win/loss record) : #2, #1, #5 and #7. After that draft order goes by win/loss record: #3, #4, #6, #8.
So for the top 7 picks of 2021, none ended up in their pre-lottery slot. The 3rd worst record got the #5 pick and and 4th worst record got the #6 pick.
2nd worst record got the #1 pick. 1st worst record got the #2 pick. 5th worst record got the #3 pick. 7th worst record got the #4 pick.

 

[e_blazer]

Since I care more about rebuilding the team to competitive levels than I do about maximizing their profit levels - I'd say it is a very bad thing.

And yes, I understand the argument that stripping the team of assets makes the team more attractive to a certain type of buyer.

That’s not the issue. Dumping mid-level talent on Olshey’s bloated contracts opens up a range of options to acquire better fitting talent on market-level contracts. It’s far better for the team’s future both competitively and fiscally.

 

[oldmangrouch]

That’s not the issue. Dumping mid-level talent on Olshey’s bloated contracts opens up a range of options to acquire better fitting talent on market-level contracts. It’s far better for the team’s future both competitively and fiscally.

How do you propose to get said talent? We are not players in FA, have little draft capital, and not much in the way of trade assets except Dame (and perhaps Hart). Once Simons and Nurk ink their new deals they likely won't very marketable either. (given past history, what are the odds of their deals not being bloated?) A rebuilding team needs to trade vets for GOOD young players and draft picks. We got none of the former and little of the latter.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Now Zion seems like he might be back at the end of the season, this isn’t good.

crap!

 

[oldmangrouch]

We are not getting that pick, book it. They are absolutely capable of beating those trash ass Lakers and then one of Clippers and Timberwolves

Looks like you called it. Cronin bet it all on Zion not returning, and it looks like he lost.

 

[Natebishop3]

I’m happy for CJ and everything but I want that fucking pick!

 

[tiredhunter]

Looks like you called it. Cronin bet it all on Zion not returning, and it looks like he lost.

While they should be better with Zion back, I wouldn't put money on it so long as Zion (family) drama is on the table.

 

[blazerfan11]

Looks like you called it. Cronin bet it all on Zion not returning, and it looks like he lost.

Let's see how the Pelicans look in Denver.

 

[blazerkor]

LeBron Co. putting on a show tonight against the Warriors and should be putting fear into the hearts of the Pelicans. They will probably have to play against probably the second best player ever in the first of what would have to be two wins in a row to get into playoffs. I want that pick and I think LeBron will likely help us get it.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

There is no way that was on the table. We would have taken it.

The goal was to take back maximum talent at minimum possible salary.

But the priority was salary; talent was secondary.

 

[Phatguysrule]

But the priority was salary; talent was secondary.

I don't think so. The priority was salary, so we could obtain talent. If we could get a long term piece of the puzzle while leaving enough cap flexibility to complete the puzzle I think we would have pulled the trigger.

 

[Natebishop3]

Are the spurs and kings tanking now?

 

[wizenheimer]

Are the spurs and kings tanking now?

they are just bad....like Portland

Blazers have an opportunity to out-tank the Spurs though. The two teams play each other 3 times in the last 11 games of the season

 

[OneSport3]

Pelicans just messing with Blazers fans and making us sweat it out the rest of the season.

 

[B-Roy]

Pels went from down double digits to up double digits on the Nuggets

 

[LayneStaley]

God I hope the Bucks suck in 2025. Anyone know the protections on that one?

 

[LayneStaley]

God I hope the Bucks suck in 2025. Anyone know the protections on that one?

It’s top 4 protected in 2025, let’s hope we are borderline contenders then and Milwaukee is on a down slide and we snag a lotto pick that’s used to put us over the top.

 

[Driew]

Well Denver won so that's good.

 

[AldoTrapani]

It’s top 4 protected in 2025, let’s hope we are borderline contenders then and Milwaukee is on a down slide and we snag a lotto pick that’s used to put us over the top.

Wait we have their pick then?

 

[blazerkor]

Wait we have their pick then?

If the Pelican's make the playoffs then we won't get their pick this year and will have the Bucks pick top 4 protected in 2025.

 

[blazerkor]

When I look at the Pelican's schedule I see about seven more schedule wins out of their remaining eighteen games. Obviously they've been playing a lot better so they may split the games that I don't see as being wins. So let's just say they finish 12-6 and end up with a 40-42 record. That won't put them above the Wolves or Clippers. So they will have to win two play in games to get into the playoffs and cost us our pick. I really don't see that happening but I guess we'll wait and see. I do think they will probably pass the Lakers and Wizards which will mean that we'll end up with the 12th pick from them.

 

[STOMP]

If the Pelican's make the playoffs then we won't get their pick this year and will have the Bucks pick top 4 protected in 2025.

Chris Middleton is 30, Jrue Holiday is 31 & Giannis is 27 and under contract through 2024 with a player option for 2025. The wheels might be falling off right on time in 2024-25.

STOMP

 

[blazerkor]

Chris Middleton is 30, Jrue Holiday is 31 & Giannis is 27 and under contract through 2024 with a player option for 2025. The wheels might be falling off right on time in 2024-25.

STOMP

Let's hope we never have to worry about it.