Plan C (When Utah Matches): Marvin Williams?

[Nikolokolus]

An interesting blog post from Wendell Maxey from Hoopsworld and a guy who covers the Blazers:
http://www.beyondthebeat.net/20090712312/2009-articles/july/after-utah-matches-millsap.html

It’s not a matter of if the Utah Jazz match Portland’s offer to Paul Millsap, but simply when.

That brings us to the second option: Marvin Williams.

The offers haven’t exactly been flowing for Williams since free agency got underway. Atlanta is clearly not making him a priority any longer. The Hawks instead opted to throw money at Zaza Pachulia and Mike Bibby. I get Pachulia. I don’t get Bibby. There were also talks weeks ago that General Manager Rick Sund wanted to bring in Washington’s Caron Butler, but that has since fallen to the way side – right along with Williams returning to Atlanta apparently.

Williams’ agent Jim Tanner met with the Hawks recently, but that discussion was only about a one-year qualifying offer and nothing more. That would push Marvin’s salary to $7 million.

Would Portland ante-up for a longer deal for Williams?

Four years into the league, he’s not the veteran type Nate McMillan has been pushing for over the past two summers, but at 23-years-old would certainly mature with the core of Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden among others. At 6’9 and 240 pounds, Williams – who averaged 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds in 61 games played - is one of those versatile players who could fill in at power forward and also creates mismatches at small forward in spot minutes.

This would once again leave Travis Outlaw expendable.

What else is new?

Here's Hollinger's scouting report:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=2797

Scouting report: Williams' two high-caliber skills are outstanding quickness for his size and his ability to hit mid-range Js off the catch. The threat of the jumper is the reason he drew so many free-throws, as he could shot fake and easily get a step on defenders. He's also become much more aggressive off the dribble when defenders crowd him, and is a threat as a finisher in transition. Though he's not a particularly deceptive dribbler, his quickness allows him to beat defenders on straight line drives with either hand.

Defensively, Williams' quickness is also an asset. He often guards the opponent's top scorer, and while he doesn't have the bulldog mentality of a stopper, his combination of height and quickness is a pretty good package. It also makes him a strong defender in switches. He has a thin frame, however, and if things get physical he's not inclined to push back.

Per game stats from last year:
34 minutes per game FG% 46% 3PT 35% , RBS 6.3 PTS 13.9

offensive rating 118
defensive rating 107


advanced stats from 82games.com
http://www.82games.com/0809/08ATL10.HTM

floor time stats by position:
34% small forward:
Own PER: 16
Opp. PER: 16.8
17% power forward:
Own PER: 21.8
Opp. PER: 15.1


I have to admit this kind of came out of left field for me, but the more I think about it, the more I wonder if it couldn't end up being a pretty decent and fairly inexpensive solution to the small forward/backup power forward situation. Obviously he'd be a bit of a tweener and at first blush I'm thinking he's maybe a slightly better version of Travis Outlaw and I didn't watch him play a lot this year when he apparently played better than his first 3 years in the league (I watched quite a few Hawks games the two previous years when Childress was still on their team and Williams seemed a lot less impressive) so my opinions of him are largely based on prior, less productive seasons.

Thoughts?

 

[SodaPopinski]

Meh ...

 

[tlongII]

He doesn't fill a need for us so I see no point in going after Williams.

 

[Nikolokolus]

He doesn't fill a need for us so I see no point in going after Williams.

small forward isn't a position of need? hmm, coulda fooled me.

 

[B-Roy]

Too Outlaw like for me.

 

[tlongII]

small forward isn't a position of need? hmm, coulda fooled me.

We already have 3 SF's that are talented. Definitely not a need.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

I like Marvin a lot actually, but for our second option, we should look at Ramon Sessions without a doubt. Offer him whatever we have and hope it happens. Front load the contract and make it difficult for the Bucks.

 

[Minstrel]

I like Marvin a lot actually, but for our second option, we should look at Ramon Sessions without a doubt. Offer him whatever we have and hope it happens. Front load the contract and make it difficult for the Bucks.

I also think Sessions, but I would suggest discussing a sign & trade with Milwaukee and assuring them that if no sign & trade happened, I would make an offer to Sessions and it would be very painful financially. That would provide a little incentive for coming to an agreeable sign & trade because they are now assured that retaining him will be as painful as possible. For a team that values saving money, knowing that not only will they not get him cheap but that they'll have to really spend a lot, and a lot up front, should scare them a bit.

 

[alex42083]

I'm not too big a fan of Marvin as a $7-8 million guy. I'd rather just go ahead and keep the cap room until the trade deadline.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm not too big a fan of Marvin as a $7-8 million guy. I'd rather just go ahead and keep the cap room until the trade deadline.

Oh god no! I'd never offer him that kind of money, I was thinking more along the lines of 5-6 million per year for 4 years with an option on the 4th year. 7-8 million is way overpaying.

 

[Nikolokolus]

We already have 3 SF's that are talented. Definitely not a need.

Travis is more of a power forward than a small forward, Martell may or may not be available next season (ever?) so, yeah I'd say we're a little thin at the 3 even if Cunningham makes the team and can play some spot minutes there.

 

[B-Roy]

Oh god no! I'd never offer him that kind of money, I was thinking more along the lines of 5-6 million per year for 4 years with an option on the 4th year. 7-8 million is way overpaying.

You need to pay him 7-8 million if you don't want Atlanta to match.

 

[Minstrel]

Travis is more of a power forward than a small forward

Your PER differentials suggest that Williams may be more of a power forward than a small forward, too. He strikes me as a luxury model of Travis Outlaw.

 

[alex42083]

Oh god no! I'd never offer him that kind of money, I was thinking more along the lines of 5-6 million per year for 4 years with an option on the 4th year. 7-8 million is way overpaying.

You need to pay him 7-8 million if you don't want Atlanta to match.

Yeah.. that's what I thought but if we could get him for really cheap, like the 5-6 million I think that'd make a good risk on a young SF who has some really nice skills, kind of like a Luol Deng-type who has good size for a SF but not a good three-point shooter.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

I've always like Williams game. He's smart heady player who knows where to be on every play. The fact that he guards the other teams best player obviously lowers his defensive stats. To me he's an upgrade over Travis and he can play the 3 or 4 position. Veteran at age 23, be a good addition.

 

[Draco]

I'd rather see us give Lee and Sessions the same offer we just gave Millsap. If those don't work Williams would be on the next tier of options. I'm not sold on Marvin though, just keeping the cap space for the season might be a better alternative.

 

[keebs3]

My plan C at this point is to do nothing big for the rest of the summer. I say give Roy and LMA their money that they have earned and go into the season with what we have. After all, we were a 54 win team. We have our money until the trade deadline. lets see how the season begins. After a few months, if it becomes obvious that we need an upgrade then lets pull the trigger in Feb.

I'm just worried that our Plan C could be spend the money because we have it and are being pressured to use it... Again, lock up our stars and be patient.. whats so wrong with that plan?

JMK

 

[Haakzilla]

Too Outlaw like for me.

...except for the fact that Marvin has "some" basketball IQ, as opposed to "NO IQ TO"

 

[Iwatas]

Make the same Millsap offer to Sessions. Make Milwaukee match. Then do the same with Lee. Either player makes Portland better (though I prefer Sessions).

iWatas

 

[Mediocre Man]

I still say we are WAY past plan C. I think we have even gone past a letter grade in school.

 

[Kaydow]

...except for the fact that Marvin has "some" basketball IQ, as opposed to "NO IQ TO"

Devil's advocate: Marvin can't create his own shot and isn't known for hitting big shots like Travis is.

Hey, Outlaw frustrates me just as much as he frustrates some of you . . . but Marvin Williams isn't a huge upgrade. And Travis only cost us $4 million this year. You think we can get Williams for that?

Besides, if we trade Outlaw I'd like to see one of the benefits being that it opens up the SF position for us. While Outlaw and Williams can play PF, they aren't what we need at THAT position. We need a good post defender, good rebounder, and a guy that can score a little around the basket to back up Lamarcus. The 2nd unit has NO post pressence - it's all jump shots.

Millsap would be a nice add, but if he signs with Utah I don't think we need to sign somebody like Williams just to make a move. Just go focus on Roy's and Lamarcus' extensions.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I love Marvin's game. At 6'9" he can easily play the back up PF spot more so than Travis as well as get minutes at the 3. A change of scenery may do him wonders. He could be a steal. Has he been healthy?

And yes Marvin can create his own shot. Are you kidding me!

 

[ptownblazer1]

Don't know if this has been reported yet, but on ESPN they said that the Jazz plan on taking out a loan to re-sign Milsap.

 

[Kaydow]

I love Marvin's game. At 6'9" he can easily play the back up PF spot more so than Travis as well as get minutes at the 3. A change of scenery may do him wonders. He could be a steal. Has he been healthy?

And yes Marvin can create his own shot. Are you kidding me!

No he can't. He can spot up from 18-20 ft, he slashes to the basket pretty well, and he finishes really well on fast breaks. But he doesn't post up well, he's not a dribble/drive guy, or a hard dribble/jumper guy either.


Trust me, he's not a guy you can run plays through to get a good shot. He needs somebody to set him up.

 

[hasoos]

I would rather sign Lamar Odom and take a piece from the Lakers. Or at least make them pay more for him.

 

[maxiep]

I like Marvin and think he still has serious upside. Unlike TO, he actually cares about defense. He can also understand offensive sets. I'd love to steal him from the Hawks, just as long as we move TO and possibly Webs.

 

[Minstrel]

No he can't. He can spot up from 18-20 ft, he slashes to the basket pretty well, and he finishes really well on fast breaks. But he doesn't post up well, he's not a dribble/drive guy, or a hard dribble/jumper guy either.


Trust me, he's not a guy you can run plays through to get a good shot. He needs somebody to set him up.

I don't agree, I think he does have a dribble/jumper game and, if defenses play him too tight for the jumper, he's adept at driving to the hoop.

Perhaps what you mean is that he's not a "go-to guy," to which I'd agree. He's not a guy you can run your offense through, use as the focus of your offense. But he can certainly catch a pass on the wing, at a stand-still, and create a good opportunity for himself, in my opinion.

He's not the sort of epic shot-maker that Outlaw is (by which I mean, Outlaw is capable of making some insane shots, shots that Williams probably can't hit), but he's also not the epic shot-taker that Outlaw is. He has good shot selection and plays within himself. And he's more aggressive at attacking the hoop than Outlaw, which I like.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't agree, I think he does have a dribble/jumper game and, if defenses play him too tight for the jumper, he's adept at driving to the hoop.

Perhaps what you mean is that he's not a "go-to guy," to which I'd agree. He's not a guy you can run your offense through, use as the focus of your offense. But he can certainly catch a pass on the wing, at a stand-still, and create a good opportunity for himself, in my opinion.

He's not the sort of epic shot-maker that Outlaw is (by which I mean, Outlaw is capable of making some insane shots, shots that Williams probably can't hit), but he's also not the epic shot-taker that Outlaw is. He has good shot selection and plays within himself. And he's more aggressive at attacking the hoop than Outlaw, which I like.

I like Marvin and think he still has serious upside. Unlike TO, he actually cares about defense. He can also understand offensive sets. I'd love to steal him from the Hawks, just as long as we move TO and possibly Webs.

and

 

[hasoos]

The one thing I would also point out is Marvin Williams isn't really in the prime place for him to be effective right now. The Hawks are one of those teams where they have a bunch of good players, but unfortuantely quite a few of them play the same position, and leave them thin at other positions. So they have Josh Smith and Marvin Williams, but they do the same thing. Because of this, they end up with less minutes on the floor, and not working out so well sometimes because they have to play on parts of the floor they are not comfortable with when the other player is on the floor too. It just isn't a good sitaution for success for him there.

That being said, the only way I can see success for him here, is if somebody else was moved. Otherwise, you probably have the same issues.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Except that he's not better than Josh Smith for ATL. He's much better than Outlaw for us.