Play Oden More

[Jayps15]

bad coaching? both centers are playing well and we're 10-2 in the last 12 games; bad coaching?

Also- Kenny Smith said something a few weeks ago. He said that there are a lot of players in the league who can only contribute so much a game no matter how many minutes they play. You can't double Oden's minutes and expect him to double his contribution. Look at the one game this season where Oden played 30+ minutes. He had 11 points, 7 rebounds, & 1 block. That sort of throws out the whole validity of the per36 stat, doesn't it?

Do you understand what averages and rates are?

 

[B-Roy]

Do you understand what averages and rates are?

Only when they are applied to Travis Outlaw.

 

[oldmangrouch]

bad coaching? both centers are playing well and we're 10-2 in the last 12 games; bad coaching?

Also- Kenny Smith said something a few weeks ago. He said that there are a lot of players in the league who can only contribute so much a game no matter how many minutes they play. You can't double Oden's minutes and expect him to double his contribution. Look at the one game this season where Oden played 30+ minutes. He had 11 points, 7 rebounds, & 1 block. That sort of throws out the whole validity of the per36 stat, doesn't it?

That's an interesting point.

Just because somebody can run 1500 meters in 4 minutes, it doesn't mean he can run 3000 meters in 8 minutes, or 6000 meters in 16 minutes.

Oden does not have a "great motor". He is just average in that department. That's a big part of the reason that an otherwise inferior talent (Noah) has grabbed more rebounds this season.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

What if Greg is/does get winded? What should Nate do then?

Let the big guy learn to play until he collapses? Maybe just let him play until he can't move? What if he breaks a leg? Let the big guy learn to play with pain? Perhaps if Oden has five guys assaulting him with crowbars Nate should leave him so the big guy can learn karate?

I can just hear the gnashing of teeth and retching on the board now as the other half of the fanbase blames Nate for destroying the center of a lifetime.

Play the big guy between 32-34 minutes a night unless he's fouled out or we're in a blow out. He's going to need to be conditioned to play 32-34 minutes a night for us to have any success in the playoffs.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I thought Nate did a good job with his substitution pattern tonight. Not a big fan of the whole sale changes to start the 4th. Adelman used to drive me crazy with that. I like how Nate is always thinking about the money quarter. Having Miller and Oden fresh to start the 4th is comforting.

 

[mgb]

It's not so much that which irritates me, it's the dumb "6 minute mark" rule that Nate has for him. Right now Nate has the following rules:

1) If Oden commits more than one foul per quarter, he sits the rest of the first half.

2) Regardless of foul trouble or play, Oden comes out with six minutes to go in the first and third quarters.

One thing that drives me up the wall about Nate is that he refuses to go away from his subbing patterns, regardless of whether a guy is hot or not. It's just bad coaching.

Nate said on Courtside that he felt he made a mistake in the GS game by pulling Oden and allowing GS to come back in the game. He is now more flexible playing Oden with fouls in the first half. If you haven't heard it check it out I'm sure it's online. He also said that sometimes Oden does get tired at about the 6 min point and he will reach in and get fouls he usually won't and that is a sign to him that he needs a break.

 

[fumanchu]

Relax on Oden's minutes. He's still a project. They are taking one step at a time.

 

[Minstrel]

I believe it is bad coaching to allow a player to pick up a 5th foul in the third quarter. Don't you want your guy to be able defend in the 4th quarter without worrying about being disqualified?

I want him to be able to defend whenever he's on the court, first quarter or fourth quarter, without worrying about being disqualified...by the rules or by his coach. Hopefully that is how he plays (unworried), but my desired plan for him wouldn't make him any more worried....as it is, he knows the next foul pretty much means the bench.

 

[Minstrel]

What if Greg is/does get winded? What should Nate do then?

Let the big guy learn to play until he collapses? Maybe just let him play until he can't move? What if he breaks a leg? Let the big guy learn to play with pain?

Well, you didn't aim this post directly at me, but nevertheless...note that my post about how I'd handle Oden said "play him normally" until [my various foul limits]. That means paying attention to injury and exhaustion, like you would...normally. I just don't like overly strict foul quotas, because it means leaving minutes he could have played on the table.

 

[Natebishop3]

Nate's the master of knowing when a player has hit his stride and given what he can give. I'd rather not wait for a player to start chucking up three bricks to take him out. In those three bricks, you've given the lead back to the opposition.

How do we know this? If he always takes guys out before they cool off, how do we know that he is the "master of knowing when a player has hit his stride?" Maybe they have 2-3 more buckets in them.

 

[axs88]

Oden does not have a "great motor". He is just average in that department. That's a big part of the reason that an otherwise inferior talent (Noah) has grabbed more rebounds this season.

Oh, really? I thought it had more to do with Greg playing 24 minutes to Noah's 33. (Greg's rebound rate is 20.4% to Noah's 19.7%).

I'm not saying Noah doesn't have a great motor, but what you said just doesn't make any sense. If anything, Greg's great 'motor' (defensively) is what usually used to make him commit so many fouls, he just couldn't let plays go.

 

[Natebishop3]

Oh, really? I thought it had more to do with Greg playing 24 minutes to Noah's 33. (Greg's rebound rate is 20.4% to Noah's 19.7%).

I'm not saying Noah doesn't have a great motor, but what you said just doesn't make any sense. If anything, Greg's great 'motor' (defensively) is what usually used to make him commit so many fouls, he just couldn't let plays go.

This.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

Oh, really? I thought it had more to do with Greg playing 24 minutes to Noah's 33. (Greg's rebound rate is 20.4% to Noah's 19.7%).

I'm not saying Noah doesn't have a great motor, but what you said just doesn't make any sense. If anything, Greg's great 'motor' (defensively) is what usually used to make him commit so many fouls, he just couldn't let plays go.

This is actually a valid point you make in regards to the rebounds.

For comparison's sake:

Joakim Noah has played 434 minutes and has grabbed 155 rebounds; on the other hand, Greg Oden has played 415 minutes and grabbed 142 rebounds. Considering Greg has more, and goes for more, blocks that put him out of position to rebound I would say they are comparable rebounders. Who would know how many rebounds Greg would be grabbing if he played even 9 more minutes a game.

Edit: Also for argument's sake Greg plays on the number one team in terms of Rebound Rate, whereas Noah plays on the 22nd rated team in that category. Chicago also plays at the 17th rated pace on the league, whereas Portland plays 29th (or next to last).

Portland also has a 53.9 rebound percentage where Chicago has a 49.1. Portland also maintains a plus 6.5 rebounding advantage over opposing teams, where Chicago owns a negative 1.5.

These statistics may be seen here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatreb&season=2010&seasontype=2

here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatreb&season=2010&seasontype=2

and here:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...ger/teamstats?sort=rr&seasonType=2&league=nba

I guess rebound rate/rebound percentage is the same so I'm not particularly sure why it is listed under their normal team statistics then the special John Hollinger team statistics.

A conspiracy, I imagine.

 

[Natebishop3]

This is actually a valid point you make in regards to the rebounds.

For comparison's sake:

Joakim Noah has played 434 minutes and has grabbed 155 rebounds; on the other hand, Greg Oden has played 415 minutes and grabbed 142 rebounds. Considering Greg has more, and goes for more, blocks that put him out of position to rebound I would say they are comparable rebounders. Who would know how many rebounds Greg would be grabbing if he played even 9 more minutes a game.

I think eventually Greg will be logging around 32-35 minutes per game. Where does that leave Joel? I'm not sure. I think we ideally need a backup center who can play some power forward. Of course, with the way Cunningham is playing, we might not need a backup four anymore

 

[The Sebastian Express]

I think eventually Greg will be logging around 32-35 minutes per game. Where does that leave Joel? I'm not sure. I think we ideally need a backup center who can play some power forward. Of course, with the way Cunningham is playing, we might not need a backup four anymore

I've no idea where it leaves Joel - possibly on another team next year depending on if he opts out of his contract, and Greg stays healthy. Joel is very much a starter in this league (but he needs to start on a team with four other players that can score consistently in a variety of ways to be most effective), and he will never be one here again unless Greg goes down and no one wants that to happen.

We'll need to find a rugged undersized center in college to replace Joel, most likely. Someone that wont command many minutes, but puts in a good effort and always hustles (I refuse to use McMillan's patented S word). I would really rather never see LaMarcus play extended minutes at center against Western competition; i.e, any playoff game.

 

[Natebishop3]

I've no idea where it leaves Joel - possibly on another team next year depending on if he opts out of his contract, and Greg stays healthy. Joel is very much a starter in this league (but he needs to start on a team with four other players that can score consistently in a variety of ways to be most effective), and he will never be one here again unless Greg goes down and no one wants that to happen.

We'll need to find a rugged undersized center in college to replace Joel, most likely. Someone that wont command many minutes, but puts in a good effort and always hustles (I refuse to use McMillan's patented S word). I would really rather never see LaMarcus play extended minutes at center against Western competition; i.e, any playoff game.

If we could somehow pry Turiaf away from Golden State, I would be ecstatic.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

If we could somehow pry Turiaf away from Golden State, I would be ecstatic.

I don't think we have the pieces to pry way Turiaf - at least the ones we'd be willing to part with; unless they start looking at the bottom line and trade him for cap relief. If there is any way we can package Blake and Travis to one of the big free agent teams for the summer of 2010. Or if Orlando doesn't want to keep paying Brandon Bass to sit on the bench and get limited minutes or DNP-CDs.

It's doubtful that Travis is going to come back this season considering the injury he sustained and our medical curse with feet injuries inside the franchise. I doubt he resigns here next year because he'll be looking for bigger money, his role will have been reduced (I honestly believe we're a better team with Rudy getting more shots and time and Dante just putting in work-man like effort), and it probably just wont be a good fit any more. Since I think that is the case it'd be prudent to trade him to a team seeking cap relief, and if they think he'll miss more than 41 games they can collect on his insurance too.

A Brandon Bass or a Udonis Haslem would be real nice, but I doubt Miami trades one of their scarce big men especially considering his experience. An unfortunate shame - for us.

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think we have the pieces to pry way Turiaf - at least the ones we'd be willing to part with; unless they start looking at the bottom line and trade him for cap relief. If there is any way we can package Blake and Travis to one of the big free agent teams for the summer of 2010. Or if Orlando doesn't want to keep paying Brandon Bass to sit on the bench and get limited minutes or DNP-CDs.

It's doubtful that Travis is going to come back this season considering the injury he sustained and our medical curse with feet injuries inside the franchise. I doubt he resigns here next year because he'll be looking for bigger money, his role will have been reduced (I honestly believe we're a better team with Rudy getting more shots and time and Dante just putting in work-man like effort), and it probably just wont be a good fit any more. Since I think that is the case it'd be prudent to trade him to a team seeking cap relief, and if they think he'll miss more than 41 games they can collect on his insurance too.

A Brandon Bass or a Udonis Haslem would be real nice, but I doubt Miami trades one of their scarce big men especially considering his experience. An unfortunate shame - for us.

I agree. I think Bayless has earned some PT too, so I don't mind giving up Blake.

 

[Hype #9]

Dear Nate,

Try not to be such an assclown.

No excuse for this guy to be averaging less than 30 minutes. His fouls per minute would allow him to play around 32 without fouling out.

Nate is actually racist. He only plays white people extended minutes. Roy and Aldridge get a pass because they're light skinned.

 

[Natebishop3]

Nate is actually racist. He only plays white people extended minutes. Roy and Aldridge get a pass because they're light skinned.

Well he's spent so much time in the NW, it's really not surprising

 

[Sedatedfork]

Nate is actually racist. He only plays white people extended minutes. Roy and Aldridge get a pass because they're light skinned.

Oden needs to get that Sammy Sosa treatment.

 

[Sedatedfork]

I've no idea where it leaves Joel - possibly on another team next year depending on if he opts out of his contract, and Greg stays healthy. Joel is very much a starter in this league (but he needs to start on a team with four other players that can score consistently in a variety of ways to be most effective), and he will never be one here again unless Greg goes down and no one wants that to happen.

We'll need to find a rugged undersized center in college to replace Joel, most likely. Someone that wont command many minutes, but puts in a good effort and always hustles (I refuse to use McMillan's patented S word). I would really rather never see LaMarcus play extended minutes at center against Western competition; i.e, any playoff game.

Given that the cap is supposed to go down I don't think Joel opts out. He may ask for a trade if he is unhappy with his PT. Sorry, I can't decipher the S word. A little help?

 

[MrSelfDestruct]

Given that the cap is supposed to go down I don't think Joel opts out. He may ask for a trade if he is unhappy with his PT. Sorry, I can't decipher the S word. A little help?

I'm thinking it's scrap.

It's doubtful that Travis is going to come back this season considering the injury he sustained and our medical curse with feet injuries inside the franchise. I doubt he resigns here next year because he'll be looking for bigger money, his role will have been reduced (I honestly believe we're a better team with Rudy getting more shots and time and Dante just putting in work-man like effort), and it probably just wont be a good fit any more. Since I think that is the case it'd be prudent to trade him to a team seeking cap relief, and if they think he'll miss more than 41 games they can collect on his insurance too.

Although I think you may be right about Outlaw leaving, part of me is concerned that his injury this year will reduce offers he may have received in the off-season. For a guy who uses his athletic ability to create his shot, a foot injury could potentially make him less effective. I mean, if you're a GM, would you offer him a contract for more than he is making this year (since he presumably is looking for more money) when you haven't even seen how his game has changed after the injury in game situations?

 

[oldmangrouch]

Oh, really? I thought it had more to do with Greg playing 24 minutes to Noah's 33. (Greg's rebound rate is 20.4% to Noah's 19.7%).

I'm not saying Noah doesn't have a great motor, but what you said just doesn't make any sense. If anything, Greg's great 'motor' (defensively) is what usually used to make him commit so many fouls, he just couldn't let plays go.

I'd argue the opposite, that some of his foul trouble is a result of him getting sloppy when he is tired. He stops moving his feet, and starts bumping and reaching.

Without looking up the stats, I would bet Oden leads the team in 3-second violations (at both ends) - another indicator of fatigue/sloppy play.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I've never understood this concept among some fans. Why is the 2nd half more important? Let's say Team A shows no effort to play at all in the first half, and Team B goes all out. Then in the 2nd half Team A goes all out, and Team B shows no effort at all. Does it somehow makes it more likely that Team A would win just because they showed up to play in the 2nd half but not the 1st half? A point in the first minute of the game is the same as a point in the last minute of the game. They have the exact same value.

Logic says you are right, but reality (IMO) is that the the score of the game in the 4th dictates how teams play down the stretch. (are they protecting a lead, or are they trapping or throwing up 3's to get back into it)

The refs also will even things out if one team is way ahead. (We have all seen that) Sure blowing one team out in the first half would make a difference, but for the most part things even out in the 4th and those that play best down the stretch win more.

 

[yakbladder]

Then sit him. Do you think this is the case?

I think it is sometimes when people go ballistic in game threads screaming about Nate sitting him. Not all the time, not many times, but a few times. I think it's just a little ridiculous some of the attitudes people have (not necessarily you) that Oden needs to just play ever minute possible and that team success can only revolve around Oden being in there. If anything, we just as much need to learn team success w/o Oden in there or we'll be screwed in the playoffs.

Straw man.

No, it's called humor. If you honestly think that I'm trying to argue that SE believes Oden should learn karate on court while fending off guys with crowbars then I don't even know how to relate common basketball sense to you.

 

[Jayps15]

I'd argue the opposite, that some of his foul trouble is a result of him getting sloppy when he is tired. He stops moving his feet, and starts bumping and reaching.

Without looking up the stats, I would bet Oden leads the team in 3-second violations (at both ends) - another indicator of fatigue/sloppy play.

I'd say Joel is right up there with him, if not tied. Another way of looking at this is that defensively we're bad at stopping penetration on the perimeter, and our bigs are so used to having to help that they're over anticipating and getting caught in the lane for to long with no one to guard. Offensively 3 second violations aren't so much because of fatigue, but again over anticipating our guards putting up a shot, both Oden and Joel are fantastic on the offensive glass and hanging around the rim is just a prerequisite of that.

 

[bobf]

it'sGOtime said it in the other thread; I'd rather see Oden play the 4th quarter with only 3 fouls; that allows him to play completely uninhibited in the most important quarter.

I agree... plus he has to learn to quit fouling so much.

 

[hasoos]

Dear Nate,

Try not to be such an assclown.

No excuse for this guy to be averaging less than 30 minutes. His fouls per minute would allow him to play around 32 without fouling out.

Agreed. If you didn't notice that the Blazers dominated every portion of the game where Oden was in, you weren't paying attention. Oden has the foul issue under control. You can tell he is easing off on guys he can't make plays on now, and in some situations, he is fouling guys when he knows he needs to due to the situation.

Lopez had a big night. If Oden was used in the same way, he would have been right there too.

 

[hasoos]

I think it is sometimes when people go ballistic in game threads screaming about Nate sitting him. Not all the time, not many times, but a few times. I think it's just a little ridiculous some of the attitudes people have (not necessarily you) that Oden needs to just play ever minute possible and that team success can only revolve around Oden being in there. If anything, we just as much need to learn team success w/o Oden in there or we'll be screwed in the playoffs.


No, it's called humor. If you honestly think that I'm trying to argue that SE believes Oden should learn karate on court while fending off guys with crowbars then I don't even know how to relate common basketball sense to you.

Stars win in this league, not role players. Your stars should approach 40 minutes a game. Not under 30. If you shoot a high percentage and outrebound your opponent, you will win a high percentage of your games. Oden brings rebounding. If you go to 82games and look up 5 man units, you will also notice that every 5 man unit that Oden plays on has an effective field goal percentage over .500 and every one that Joel is on is all the way from a .269 to a high percentage of .492. (With Aldridge and Roy in with him.)

If you watch most nights now you will note that teams are double teaming Greg before he even has the ball. That is making the rest of the team better, even if he doesn't touch the ball on that posessions. That in itself, vindicates having him out on the floor for more minutes, even if he isn't active in the offense, and even if he is in foul trouble and playing soft in order to not foul out.


So if you want to have Joel or Aldridge at center for more minutes. More power to you. But you probably aren't going to enjoy watching the game as much.