Players +/- after 30 games

[Wizard Mentor]

For purposes of this thread I'll use ORtg - DRtg (i.e. points/100 possesions)

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/6NIBc

Mo Williams: 100 - 110 = -10
Dorrell Wright: 108 - 109 = -1
Joel Freeland: 106 - 107 = -1

Notes:
1) Forget about the other bench players as they haven't IMHO played enough
2) The starter all have a positive net, but click on the link above to see them
3) Let's play Sesame Street! Which one of these things is not like the others, which one is different from the rest?

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm not good at reading , sorry

 

[Wizard Mentor]

OK, I'm ready to roll.
The obvious point is not just that our bench sucks, but that Mo Williams in particular is hurting the team (Regardless of Stott's "best PG off the bench in the league" comment).

However, this also shows why I don't like PER. Mo's PER is comparable to Wright's and Freeland's, but while the team basically plays the other team to a standstill with Wright and/or Freeland in the game, we are absolutely getting killed while Mo is in the game - and Mo plays a lot of minutes with the starters who all have a net positive.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Kind of interesting, but I'm not sure I needed advanced metrics to tell me that Mo Williams sucks.

 

[Rhal]

I really want to like Willaims but everytime he comes in it becomes Mo Ball and he just isn't good enough for it to be Mo Ball time.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I guess what the advanced metrics told me was that our bench doesn't suck, it's just Mo Williams. For me that is news. We don't have to overhaul our whole bench we just need to rid ourselves of one guy. It also answers what has been a contentious issue on these boards: "Where will CJs minutes come from?" The NOW obvious answer is that they should all come from Mo Williams.

Kind of interesting, but I'm not sure I needed advanced metrics to tell me that Mo Williams sucks.

 

[magnifier661]

OK, I'm ready to roll.
The obvious point is not just that our bench sucks, but that Mo Williams in particular is hurting the team (Regardless of Stott's "best PG off the bench in the league" comment).

However, this also shows why I don't like PER. Mo's PER is comparable to Wright's and Freeland's, but while the team basically plays the other team to a standstill with Wright and/or Freeland in the game, we are absolutely getting killed while Mo is in the game - and Mo plays a lot of minutes with the starters who all have a net positive.

Anyone with half a brain would know that Mo completely hurts this team. A prime example was last night when we tried going 3 guard line-up, using mo as the PG in the 4th. How many shots did Lillard have? Was Mo even trying to get Lillard involved? The only real score Lillard took was when he walked the ball up and shot from 6 feet behind the arch.

A good PG would understand the player that is your star and try feeding him. Yes, Aldridge gets a lot of feed, but you need more than one star to get looks. Mo is an absolute joke when it involves getting his teammates involved. It's "give me the ball and let me dribble until I am forced to give you a contested jumper" offense.

 

[Rhal]

Anyone with half a brain would know that Mo completely hurts this team. A prime example was last night when we tried going 3 guard line-up, using mo as the PG in the 4th. How many shots did Lillard have? Was Mo even trying to get Lillard involved? The only real score Lillard took was when he walked the ball up and shot from 6 feet behind the arch.

A good PG would understand the player that is your star and try feeding him. Yes, Aldridge gets a lot of feed, but you need more than one star to get looks. Mo is an absolute joke when it involves getting his teammates involved. It's "give me the ball and let me dribble until I am forced to give you a contested jumper" offense.

While I think Mo is a big problem I think Stotts may not be using him correctly. When someone shoots as much as Mo does when he comes in he has ot have the green light from the coach or he would be getting less minutes not more, so while Mo playing like Mo is his fault its also Stotts fault for not attempting to reel him in.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

While I think Mo is a big problem I think Stotts may not be using him correctly. When someone shoots as much as Mo does when he comes in he has ot have the green light from the coach or he would be getting less minutes not more, so while Mo playing like Mo is his fault its also Stotts fault for not attempting to reel him in.

Wait, did you overhear Olshey saying this to the Rockets or other potential trade partners?

 

[magnifier661]

While I think Mo is a big problem I think Stotts may not be using him correctly. When someone shoots as much as Mo does when he comes in he has ot have the green light from the coach or he would be getting less minutes not more, so while Mo playing like Mo is his fault its also Stotts fault for not attempting to reel him in.

It is 100% Stott's fault in this regard. Just like you mentioned... Stotts could easily yank Mo if he isn't doing what he wanted from him.

 

[TBpup]

Kind of interesting, but I'm not sure I needed advanced metrics to tell me that Mo Williams sucks.

Perhaps Stotts does though...

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Another Fun Lesson from these stats:
Robin Lopez: 124 - 107 = +17 (which is freakin' ridiculous)
LeBron James: 123 - 103 = +20

How important is Robin Lopez to US? Almost as important as James is to the Heat.

 

[TBpup]

Stotts seems to fall so in love with the offensive side (and does a good job with it) that the defensive liabilities go unnoticed.

 

[jlprk]

Stotts has Mo run riskier plays than Lillard does. Mo has to jet around more, creating for stationary substitutes. Just standing there waiting for his passes, their +/- may be better than his, but without him their stats would be worse. He props up the bench.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Another Fun Lesson from these stats:
Robin Lopez: 124 - 107 = +17 (which is freakin' ridiculous)
LeBron James: 123 - 103 = +20

How important is Robin Lopez to US? Almost as important as James is to the Heat.

Matthews is exactly as important as Lopez to us (another +17)...

 

[BlazerCaravan]

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/qFrzH

Look at the turnover rate, and the Win Shares per 48...

 

[magnifier661]

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/qFrzH

Look at the turnover rate, and the Win Shares per 48...

Wow LMA, Matthews and Lopez have a huge advantage!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Wow LMA, Matthews and Lopez have a huge advantage!

Look at the Usage stats... Mo should not be third on the team in Usage, imho.

 

[Draco]

The starters are not the best +/- unit on the team; the efficiency is 6 points higher with Mo Williams in place of Lillard. The offense is better with Lillard but the defensive is so much better with Mo the unit as a whole is outscoring oppositions by 20 points.

The starters are outscoring opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions. But with Mo in place of Lillard they are outscoring teams by 20 points per 100 possessions.

There is no doubt our starters are very good, the problem with using +/- is Mo often plays with other reserves, as a group those units are terrible. TRob has the worst efficiency on the team and he always played in a unit with Mo Williams.

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314POR2.HTM

 

[BlazerWookee]

For purposes of this thread I'll use ORtg - DRtg (i.e. points/100 possesions)

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/6NIBc

Mo Williams: 100 - 110 = -10
Dorrell Wright: 108 - 109 = -1
Joel Freeland: 106 - 107 = -1

Notes:
1) Forget about the other bench players as they haven't IMHO played enough
2) The starter all have a positive net, but click on the link above to see them
3) Let's play Sesame Street! Which one of these things is not like the others, which one is different from the rest?

Joel Freeland's two ells are split between his first and last names?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The starters are not the best +/- unit on the team; the efficiency is 6 points higher with Mo Williams in place of Lillard. The offense is better with Lillard but the defensive is so much better with Mo the unit as a whole is outscoring oppositions by 20 points.

The starters are outscoring opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions. But with Mo in place of Lillard they are outscoring teams by 20 points per 100 possessions.

There is no doubt our starters are very good, the problem with using +/- is Mo often plays with other reserves, as a group those units are terrible. TRob has the worst efficiency on the team and he always played in a unit with Mo Williams.

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314POR2.HTM

The funny thing is, the numbers imply we would be best served by benching Lillard and starting Mo. We obviously can't do that, but I wonder if that's what Stotts is kind of trying to do with his rotation of Lillard out first, back first.

What might improve is that when CJ comes back, he could play some of Mo's minutes before Matthews comes back, effectively moving Lillard back to primary ball-handler with the bench unit, where I think he's a little more effective (Mo's offense sometimes only tangentally involves Lillard, who is the most offensively effective player on the court at that point). Alternatively (or additionally), he could play some of Wright's minutes in a three-guard lineup, and give Mo one less airballer to pass to.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Good or bad, I have always felt +/- is a worthless stat

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Good or bad, I have always felt +/- is a worthless stat

It's "worthless" when the data are close to each other. In this case it's not close.