Playoff Odds Revisited (1 Viewer)

[Boob-No-More]

According to Hollinger's latest Playoff Odds the Blazers now have a 93.7% chance of making the playoffs.

He has the Blazers at 6th. Here's the breakdown of the 6 - 11 spots:

6  Portland    93.7
7  New Orleans 90.4
8  Memphis     66.4
9  Houston     34.0
10 Phoenix      9.3
11 Utah         6.2

It's really amazing that on January 14 the Jazz were 14 games over 0.500 at 27-13, cruising along in 1st place in the NW Division and the Blazers were a full 7 games back at an even 20-20. My how things have changed in the last two months.

In that span, the Blazers are 10 games over 0.500 (19-9) - mostly without Roy and Camby. And the Jazz are 11 games under 0.500 (9-20).

BNM

 

[3RA1N1AC]

damn, how the mighty have fallen

 

[Boob-No-More]

damn, how the mighty have fallen

Yep, 11 games under 0.500 over the last two months and they lost both their head coach and the player who drove him to quit. Sounds like a lose:lose situation to me.

Also, after getting off to the hot 11-1 start, New Orleans has been a 0.500 club since November 21 - in spite of having a 10 game winning streak in January.

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

Sad. They lose Brewer, then Boozer, then Wesley Matthews, then Korver, then Sloan, then Deron Williams. In 8 months! Their whole team! What a mess.

 

[KingSpeed]

By the way, what do you guys think about Houston? They've flown under the radar all season, going about their business down in the 11th spot and are now quietly making a push into playoff contention. They beat Boston tonight, have won 7 of their last 10, and are only 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot. I think they're gonna pull it out.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

I don't get these playoff odds . . . i feel like I could do them. Of course the Blazers are now more likely to make the playoffs than in mid-January.

I would have been impressed if the prediction in January was 95% Blazers make the playoffs and whatever percentage the Jazz don't. But how easy is it to keep adjust the odds depending on the team's record relative to other teams. I know Hollinger uses a lot of other stas, but the playoff percentages keep changing week to week . . . heck I can do that. The real value is in the person who gives accurate percentages early and those play out.

I predict the following teams have 100% chance of going to the playoffs: Lakers, SA, Dallas and OKC. I predict the following teams have a 95% chance of making playoffs: Denver and Ptd. NO has an 85% chance and Mempis has a 68% chance Houston has a 48% chance and Utah has a 33% chance. Next week I will look at the standings and alter the percentages accordingly . ..

 

[KingSpeed]

I don't get these playoff odds . . . i feel like I could do them. Of course the Blazers are now more likely to make the playoffs than in mid-January.

I would have been impressed if the prediction in January was 95% Blazers make the playoffs and whatever percentage the Jazz don't. But how easy is it to keep adjust the odds depending on the team's record relative to other teams. I know Hollinger uses a lot of other stas, but the playoff percentages keep changing week to week . . . heck I can do that. The real value is in the person who gives accurate percentages early and those play out.

I predict the following teams have 100% chance of going to the playoffs: Lakers, SA, Dallas and OKC. I predict the following teams have a 95% chance of making playoffs: Denver and Ptd. NO has an 85% chance and Mempis has a 68% chance Houston has a 48% chance and Utah has a 33% chance. Next week I will look at the standings and alter the percentages accordingly . ..

Well that's just guessing. Hollinger is providing the closest thing he can to a hard stat in the present. Have you ever watched poker on TV? They show the percentages as the hand plays out. The percentages change. On the flop, I may have a 60% chance of beating you. When the Ace comes on the turn, now I have a 97% chance of beating you unless you get the 10 of spades on the river. Does that make any sense to you? It's an ongoing percentage which changes based on various outcomes along the way, not a prediction. Our odds have improved simce January and that is very accurate and true. When we're 1 win away from making the playoffs, our odds will go up to like 98-99%. Get it?

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Well that's just guessing. Hollinger is providing the closest thing he can to a hard stat in the present. Have you ever watched poker on TV? They show the percentages as the hand plays out. The percentages change. On the flop, I may have a 60% chance of beating you. When the Ace comes on the turn, now I have a 97% chance of beating you unless you get the 10 of spades on the river. Does that make any sense to you? It's an ongoing percentage which changes based on various outcomes along the way, not a prediction. Our odds have improved simce January and that is very accurate and true. When we're 1 win away from making the playoffs, our odds will go up to like 98-99%. Get it?

Poker is based on stats and those percentages are hard actual figures. Hollinger takes hard figures of whatever formula he has come up with to give his personal percentages of the odds of teams making the playoffs. Those percentages are anything but exact stats. Poker those are mathmatically the exact percentages.

Big difference.

So while I understand how odds can change when circumstances change, Hollinger stats seem to change weekly based on whatever he does, but my point is no kidding hollinger, when a team in the playoff hunt goes on a winning streak, you think their percentage rises . . . I don't need stats to figure that out.

But I could be proved wrong . . . what was Holliger's predictions at the begining of the year? Because that poker hand you are talking about . . . play that out and 60% of the time you do win that hand . . . those odds are exactly right at that time.