Playoff odds

[Charcoal Filtered]

Could have swore that Hollinger had us below 50% on Sunday. After New Orleans got beat in Indiana and we took care of business against Milwaukee, we are back above 50%.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

I think our January is going to control whether we go or not. No long road trips and a ton of home games. We really have to go on a run.

 

[Nate Dogg]

We are in the shitcan again losing at Golden State and I bet we will lose at utah on Monday. A 18-5 meltdown at Oakland? Sad. Our playoff rank is going to be at #8 for a long time for the West.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

I'm actually pretty confident we will stay ahead of Houston, Phoenix and Memphis. None of them are actually better than us, despite what MIXUM would say.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

We are in the shitcan again losing at Golden State and I bet we will lose at utah on Monday. A 18-5 meltdown at Oakland? Sad. Our playoff rank is going to be at #8 for a long time for the West.

Playoff odds are now at #9 and below Houston. The rest of the month is tough too and would not be surprised if we dropped all three.

 

[jlprk]

As I said in a thread about 3 days ago, I don't think we'll make the playoffs. In each game, we have no advantage, due to McMillan's system. We survive the 1st 3 quarters on hard work, but by the 4th quarter, the opponent has started working hard too.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Houston has a higher positive points differential which is a better long term indicator of record than actual wins and losses. I fully expect the Rockets to pass us sooner rather than later if no moves are made.

 

[TripTango]

As I said in a thread about 3 days ago, I don't think we'll make the playoffs. In each game, we have no advantage, due to McMillan's system. We survive the 1st 3 quarters on hard work, but by the 4th quarter, the opponent has started working hard too.

So, what I hear you saying is that we need to work even harder?

 

[jlprk]

No, I think McMillan has his team sweating to capacity all 4 quarters, while the opposing team doesn't. Then the other team has reserve energy in the 4th. If we used their energy scheme, we'd fall behind before the 4th, due to our inferior slowdown system.

CoolStandings gives us a 47.0% chance of the playoffs and predicts 42.9 wins (.523). I think they factored in last season and they think that Roy still contributes.

http://www.coolstandings.com/cs2/basketball/basketball_standings.asp

 

[Nate Dogg]

I agree. Nate's system focuses on defense on the first 3 quarters and then when its the 4th quarter the players panic and their focus on defense is totally worn out.

 

[Haakzilla]

50/50

 

[blue32]

I'm thinkin' we wont make the playoffs this year either, unless Roy takes a complete 180 on his health.

 

[Nate Dogg]

We'll have a lot more boo's towards a player or coach if the team keeps on losing at home. Or more boo's towards refs from fans frustrated at the team in general.

I have a feeling we will miss the playoffs this year unless someone is traded.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

I agree. Nate's system focuses on defense on the first 3 quarters and then when its the 4th quarter the players panic and their focus on defense is totally worn out.

The numbers do not support this for the most part.

For the first three quarters, we are outscoring the opponent by a point. The fourth quarter we get outscored by a point. Not a huge differential. May also have something to do with our top 10 in scoring during the last five minutes/three time all-star being less than 100% as well.

Someone may have better data to reflect last 5 minutes of the game though.